DFS Alerts
Jeremy Hellickson has posted a SIERA of 5.46 or higher in four of his five starts with the Baltimore Orioles
Hellickson may be one of the more familiar names on the mound tonight but he could quite possibly be the worst starting pitcher on this entire six-game main slate as well. In his five starts since being traded to the Baltimore Orioles, he has seen some mixed results, allowing six or more earned runs in two outings while limiting the damage to three earned runs or less in the other three. It doesn’t help that Hellickson has similar strikeout splits to batters from each side of the plate, with a 14.4% strikeout rate to lefties and 14.2% strikeout rate to righties, and his skills take an even steeper downturn in the fly ball (52.3%) and hard contact departments (34.3% HH%) against left-handed batters. Because of this, we would normally want to load up on the lefties facing Hellickson on most nights, though the problem arises in this spot that the Toronto Blue Jays offense is just downright terrible (Charles Barkley voice). Justin Smoak, who has a .285 ISO and .369 wOBA versus southpaws this season would have easily been the premier play from this Toronto team but he inexplicably failed to make the lineup tonight for whatever reason. This leaves us with very little, if anything, in terms of lefty power from this lineup as Kendrys Morales (.181 ISO vs RHP) now owns the highest ISO from the left-side of the plate, though Ezequiel Carrera (132 wRC+, .371 wOBA vs RHP) is still a nice piece to round out a stack but does lack the individual power to be a viable one-off in tournaments. Other than that, Josh Donaldson (139 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .258 ISO vs RHP) can always be considered in a matchup with a low-strikeout, fly ball pitcher and probably still remains the best one-off target on this Toronto offense despite sacrificing the platoon split. Additionally, Steve Pearce (.180 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Bautista (.176 ISO vs RHP) deserve some sort of mention as stack fillers given their past power successes and cheap price tags in the top half of this Blue Jays batting order Thursday evening.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Kyle Hendricks has a 24 K% and 4.8 Hard-Soft% in August
Kyle Hendricks struck out a season high eight last time out in Philadelphia. That pushes him to a 24 K% and 11.7 SwStr% in five August starts. His 40.5 GB% is the lowest of any month this season, but with just a 4.8 Hard-Soft%. He is not a considered a power arm by any means and is not in a high strikeout spot tonight (Braves 16 K% last seven days, 19.4% vs RHP). However, it’s not a bad spot (Braves 89 wRC+, 11.1 HR/FB vs RHP) and he’s one of the few pitchers on the board trending upward, completing his best month of the season. Conditions in Wrigley assist him with wind gusts expected up to 25 mph in from right/right-center according to Kevin’s morning forecast. Hendricks may be the second best pitcher on the slate considering matchup and conditions. Atlanta has a 2.74 implied run line a full run lower than any other team on the slate. Freddie Freeman (180 wRC+, .322 ISO, 35.5 Hard%, 40.6 FB% vs RHP) seems a tad expensive considering wind direction. While Hendricks has very little platoon split this year, RHBs have a ground ball rate (51.9%) that’s 10 points higher than LHBs. Matt Kemp (120 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP – 174 wRC+, 53.3 Hard% last seven days) is a low cost bat tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp
Odrisamer Despaigne has just a 13.8 career K%, but a slate leading 81.4 mph aEV in 25 IP this year
Odrisamer Despaigne had a 10.3 SwStr% in his second start of the season (first since May) against the Padres, but struck out only one. He has just a 13.8 K% in 276.2 major league innings, but also just a 6.8 Hard-Soft% and 48.5 GB%. His 81.4 mph aEV in 25 innings this season is lowest on the slate. We have a pitcher who doesn’t miss bats, but generates weak contact against a below average offense (Phillies 77 wRC+ on the road, 87 wRC+ vs RHP) that gets a park downgrade and has just a 3.83 implied run line. There’s not much to see here. The lower price tags on DraftKings gives most of the Philadelphia lineup a bit more value. Daniel Nava (139 wRC+ vs RHP) is near min-priced on FanDuel, while Nick Williams (117 wRC+, .219 ISO, 40.8 Hard%, 29.1 FB% vs RHP) and Cesar Hernandez (128 wRC+, 42.9 Hard% last seven days) are likely usable on either site at reasonable prices. Rhys Hoskins (167 wRC+, .357 ISO, 37.8 Hard%, 42.2 FB% vs RHP) is the big name here. He’s likely to be popular and has just a 26.1 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Daniel Nava, Cesar Hernandez, Nick Williams, Odrisamer Despaigne Yankees have third highest implied run line (4.81), but struggle against LHP (90 wRC+)
Eduardo Rodriguez has returned from the DL with similar peripherals (16.4 K-BB%, 10.1 SwStr%) over eight starts and even a similar contact profile (35.4 GB%, 33.6 Hard%), but an ERA above five due to a 67.3 LOB% that’s six points below his season and career rate. While the amount of hard contact in the air is a bit concerning (8.7% Barrels/BBE is highest on the slate), it’s good news that the strand rate seems to be the culprit. Further good news is the struggles of the Yankees against LHP (90 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 7.9 Hard-Soft%) and overall recently (-0.5 Hard-Soft% last seven days). PlateIQ has this particular confirmed lineup with Aaron Judge batting sixth with a .329 wOBA, .183 ISO and 21.3 K% against LHP this year. Not particularly exciting for Yankee Stadium, despite the third highest implied run line on the board (4.81). Eduardo Rodriguez is marginally priced (around $7.5K on either site) and can be useful in a decent spot tonight. Early projections have him below 10% ownership on FanDuel. The fact that he’s actually struggled more against LHBs (.369 wOBA, 33.3 Hard%) than RHBs (.295 wOBA, 30.5 Hard%) helps him quite a bit here. Judge (151 wRC+, .268 ISO, 46.4 Hard%, 44.6 FB% vs LHP) and Gary Sanchez (116 wRC+, .278 ISO, 39.4 Hard%, 43.9 FB% vs LHP) each have a 25% hard hit rate and a wRC+ between 40 and 50 over the last week.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez C.C. Sabathia owns a -13.9% Hard-Soft% in seven starts since the All-Star break
It’s easy to see just how unappealing Thursday’s six-game main slate actually is when you find yourself begrudgingly recommending C.C. Sabathia as a viable SP2 on DraftKings for tournament formats, but here we are. Now, with that said, Sabathia is clearly a less optimal play than other pitchers residing in his price range like Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Wacha, but he has had a lot of success against this Boston Red Sox lineup this season, allowing just two earned runs in 20 innings pitched. The lowly 12 strikeouts that he has recorded across these three starts does reiterate that Sabathia has to do well in the run prevention department to post a respectable score in tournaments, though his recent results do provide a glimmer of optimism for a repeat of the aforementioned outings tonight. Nothing in Sabathia’s pitching profile is going to blow us away, but he has managed to limit hard contact to just 19.7% of the time over his last seven starts since the All-Star break while inducing a respectable 50.4% groundball rate over that same span. Both of these metrics make up a nice recipe to combat this Red Sox offense, as they strike out at just a 17.0% clip but also own the third-worst ISO in the Majors (.142) versus left-handed pitching this season. So, while it’s far from the sexy play, rolling Sabathia out in your tournament lineups as a contrarian SP2 could be a great way to save salary and afford all the top bats on tonight’s slate if he is able to limit damage and plod his way through seven or so innings this evening.
As reported by: FanGraphs RHBs have a .361 wOBA and 27.2 GB% against Marco Estrada
The Baltimore Orioles have the top projected run line on the slate (5.34). They have a team 148 wRC+, 21 HR/FB and 20.5 Hard-Soft% over the last seven days, all highest on the slate to go along with their 17.7 HR/FB at home. Marco Estrada has remedied his earlier season control issues somewhat (one in each of his last two starts) and has had three of his stronger starts of the season against Baltimore (20.2 IP – 3 ER – 1 HR – 6 BB – 24 K – 82 BF), but all before June when his problems began. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, who has been worse against right-handed hitters this year (.361 wOBA, 29.9 Hard%, 27.2 GB%) in a dangerous park. Six of the seven RHBs in the lineup have a wRC+ above 100 vs RHP with Mark Trumbo (81 wRC+) being the exception. All have an ISO above .170 vs RHP. Trey Mancini (143 wRC+, .261 ISO, 34.7 Hard%, 31.5 FB%), Manny Machado (110 wRC+, .228 ISO, 37.6 Hard%, 42 FB%) and Jonathan Schoop (129 wRC+, .216 ISO, 32.7 Hard%, 37.7 FB%) are the top power bats. Machado (93.8 mph), Shoop (96.2 mph) and Trumbo (93 mph) all have high average exit velocities against Estrada with at least 13 BBEs each, according to Baseball Savant. Schoop and Machado both show up among the top six overall projected bats tonight via the RotoGrinders Player Projections.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, Marco Estrada Sean Newcomb has highest aEV (87.7 mph) on the slate, 15.7 BB% last nine starts
The Cubs are in the middle of the pack with 4.24 implied runs against Sean Newcomb. The rookie lefty has a 22.6 K% and 4.36 ERA with a forecast of guts up to 25 mph inward from right/right-center at Wrigley tonight. However, Newcomb has just an 8.0 SwStr% over the last month, while his walk rate has exploded to 15.7% over his last nine starts over which he’s allowed eight HRs. His 87.7 mph aEV and 35.1% 95+ mph EV are both highest on the slate. The Cubs have an 11 BB% and 17.2 HR/FB vs LHP. If the run line is any indication that the Cubs will be low on the radar or most players tonight, they might be the team to stack. Rene Rivera (132 wRC+, .333 ISO, 42.3 Hard%, 53.8 FB% vs LHP) and Albert Almora (148 wRC+, .174 ISO vs LHP) provide excellent punt plays, while among those with more plate appearances, Javier Baez (143 wRC+, .299 ISO vs LHP has the highest ISO on the team against southpaws. Kris Bryant (158 wRC+, .229 ISO, 34.1 Hard%, 42.4 FB% vs LHP) is a top three projected bat (RotoGrinders Player Projections) on either site. Anthony Rizzo hits same handed pitching extremely well (145 wRC+, .268 ISO vs LHP). He has a 276 wRC+ over the last week and Newcomb doesn’t even have much of a platoon split (15 points wOBA with similar hard hit and ground ball rates). The main concern there may be the wind. Ian Happ (83 wRC+, .176 ISO vs LHP has a 196 wRC+ and 70 Hard% in 18 PAs over the last week.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Rene Rivera, Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Javier Baez, Sean Newcomb Marlins one of two teams with an implied run line above five (5.17) against Ben Lively tonight
Ben Lively has a 12.8 K% (7.4 SwStr%), but with an 85 mph aEV (29.9% 95+ mph EV). He struck out eight with a 14.6 SwStr% in his last start, also allowing four HRs. As such, the Marlins are the second of two teams with an implied run line above five runs (5.17). LHBs have generated a higher wOBA (.374 to .332) and more hard contact (33.7% to 31.9%) against Lively this season, but RHBs have a lower ground ball rate (34.4% to 45.2%). Giancarlo Stanton (155 wRC+, .346 ISO, 37.7 Hard%, 40.7 FB% vs RHP) is favored by the RotoGrinders Player Projections more than a point above any other hitter on either site tonight. He’s the premier play here, but not necessarily a great value, above $5K on either site. Christian Yelich (121 wRC+, .166 ISO, 38 Hard%, 26.2 FB%) would be a fine play if he could generate more fly balls. Marcell Ozuna (148 wRC+, .278 ISO, 41.1 Hard% vs RHP) has a 183 wRC+ over the last week, but just a 22.7 Hard%. J.T. Realmuto (99 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP) has been just average against same handed pitching and has a 29 wRC+ over the last week. At $2.6K on FanDuel though, he may be one of the top values on the board according to the projections (3.76 Pt/$/K). Marlins bats are fine here. They obviously have one of the top run projections. They might just not be the best values on the board and are likely to be well represented.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: J.T. Riddle, Ben Lively, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna Homer Bailey has just a 2.2% K-BB% versus LHB through 12 starts this season
Other than a random 10-strikeout performance two-starts ago against the Chicago Cubs (where he also gave up six earned runs), the overall results for Homer Bailey have been relatively poor since his season debut towards the end of June with several low-strikeout or blow-up outings. In fact, Bailey has just a 15.6% strikeout rate and a high 11.3% walk rate, leading to a 5.41 SIERA and even worse 7.99 ERA on the year. He actually hasn’t been terrible at limiting hard contact as his hard hit rate currently sits at 30.5%, which is roughly around the league average. However, Bailey allows too many balls to be lifted in the air and far too many line drives (28.1% LD%) which explain his astronomically high .378 BABIP and poor strand rate (61.5% LOB%). Understandably, it is extremely difficult to get excited about rostering any New York Mets bats these days but this certainly seems like a matchup where it may be worth a shot or two in tournaments. The Mets hitters with the best chances of doing some type of damage look to be Brandon Nimmo (126 wRC+, .363 wOBA vs RHP), Wilmer Flores (.189 ISO vs RHP), and Asdrubal Cabrera, though they are far from elite options and should only be utilized as tournament fill-ins or part of a contrarian stack. Dominic Smith (.208 ISO vs RHP) has also exhibited some power in his brief stint in the Majors thus far and could be worth a dart throw as a punt at the first base spot as well.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores, Asdrubal Cabrera, Dominic Smith, Homer Bailey Only one game with a chance of rain in Wednesday night's MLB weather forecast
It’s a nice quiet night on the weather front across Major League Baseball following yesterday’s bevy of postponements and rain delays, as just one game has received any risk classification from Kevin Roth on Wednesday’s nine-game main slate. This game comes to us in Chicago for the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs with a grade of YELLOW/GREEN due to the chance of rain arriving in the late innings. Kevin isn’t anticipating the rain causing much of a problem so both pitchers and hitters should remain in play for tonight’s contests. Be sure read Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below and check out the new RotoGrinders Premium Chat between 6-7pm where Kevin will be providing key weather updates on a nightly basis during the week. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long as well, @KevinRothWx
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page The Rangers check-in with the lowest implied team total (3.5) on Wednesday's slate
Keuchel seems to finally be shaking the rust off following his stint on the disabled list, as he has pitched into at least the seventh inning in each of his previous three outings. Though the strikeouts have been relatively non-existent of late, he did manage to punch out seven against this same Texas Rangers squad three short starts ago. Other than his recent lull, Keuchel has basically pitched like his former Cy Young self this year, sporting a sparkling 2.58 ERA and a 3.62 SIERA, which is basically in line with his career 3.52 SIERA through six Major League seasons. Even though there is more than a full run difference between Keuchel’s ERA and SIERA (typically a cause for concern), it’s important to note that hard-hit numbers are not factored into SIERA, which explains why his ERA can be expected to remain substantially lower if he is able to maintain anywhere near a 24.9% hard hit rate through the remainder of the season. Keuchel’s 20.0% hard hit rate to left-handed batters and 25.9% hard hit rate versus righties are elite marks, so it’s not all that surprising that he is outperforming his aforementioned SIERA by a substantial margin. Tonight, Keuchel will face a subpar Rangers offense at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay due to the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in Houston. Still, no matter the location, this is still a Texas team that strikes out a whopping 24.4% of the time against left-handed pitching, the fifth-highest rate in the Majors, and ranks 21st in wRC+ (89), 19th in wOBA (.312), and 19th in ISO (.161), relegating them firmly to the status of a bottom-tier offense in Major League Baseball versus southpaws. So, clearly, the upside and safety are present for Keuchel in this matchup at “home” at Tropicana Field, a notoriously good park for pitchers, and even if Keuchel allows a home run or two, which seems like more of an issue than it really is given his high 17.2% HR/FB rate, he should still be able to post a strong outing. On top of that, his fantastic 65.9% groundball rate enables him to limit potential damage and pitch deeper into games, effectively raising his floor and ceiling, and places him firmly in line as the top starting pitching option on tonight’s slate, above pitchers like Robbie Ray and Jose Berrios due to their start-to-start volatility. Meaning, Keuchel should be the primary target for our lineups in cash games and can’t be ruled out for tournaments either, though he would likely need to pitch nearly a complete game to realize the type of upside Ray or Berrios provide in their respective matchups.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Andrew Cashner has a 6.14 xFIP and -0.4% K-BB% versus LHB this season
Cashner comes into tonight’s game against the Houston Astros in search of his seventh quality start in his last nine outings, which is absurd to think about given his horrific 5.56 SIERA on the season. With that said, he has been far from immune from a blow-up start from time to time and has certainly shown some cracks in the armor at times this season. The main attributes to the high SIERA are a low 12.0% strikeout rate and high 9.3% walk rate, which should combine to make a terrible formula for him to be able to maintain anywhere near his current 3.44 ERA that is mostly driven by his ability to limit hard contact to just 28.9% of the time. It’s frustratingly obvious that Cashner’s luck is due to run out at any time now, but after looking deeper at his splits, we can at least bank on his struggles against left-handed hitters to continue down the stretch run. Against lefties, he still has the low strikeouts (11.9% K%) with a high line drive (20.6% LD%) and fly ball rates (42.2% FB%) to go along with just an insane .233 BABIP that has still somehow failed to correct itself. All of these aforementioned statistics do not equate to long-term success for any pitcher, let alone one of Cashner’s caliber. Considering his tremendous amount of luck, this is an extremely tough matchup to feel supremely confident about, but we need to continue trusting in the numbers which make Marwin Gonzalez (157 wRC+, .452 wOBA, .248 ISO vs RHP) and Josh Reddick (124 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .194 ISO vs RHP) the main Astros hitters to focus exposure and are elite plays on Wednesday’s slate. Meanwhile, Carlos Beltran (.190 ISO RHP) and Derek Fisher (45.5% HH%, .175 ISO vs RHP) lack some elite skill sets but can definitely be considered as part of any Houston stack given Cashner’s major deficiencies to left-handed bats. The trickier side of this matchup is the Astros right-handed bats since Cashner owns a 58.7% groundball rate and a below-average 28.3% hard hit rate, which are skills he’s consistently exhibited in the past and likely are sustainable for him going forward. Clearly, with Cashner’s overall track record he’s prone to a blow up at any time, but with the likelihood of his success against righties continuing, it seems optimal to limit exposure to Astros righties like Jose Altuve. (168 wRC+, .418 wOBA, .205 ISO vs RHP), George Springer (137 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .247 ISO vs RHP), and Yulieski Gurriel (121 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .194 ISO vs RHP) to just large-field tournaments, if at all, on tonight’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Derek Fisher, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Yulieski Gurriel, Andrew Cashner Twins right-handed bats in a prime spot against Derek Holland
Holland has been absolutely dreadful against right-handed hitters this season, allowing 26 HRs in 99.2 IP (2.35 HR/9) to go along with a 40.9 Hard% and lowly 33.8 GB%. The HR/9 rate jumps to 2.93 when Holland is pitching on the road, where he’ll be tonight, and we shouldn’t put much stock into the Twins poor outing against Holland when these teams met a little earlier this month – if anything, that may keep the ownership on these bats somewhat in check. Brian Dozier is one of the top overall plays on the board at any position, as he carries a .300 ISO against lefties at home to go along with a healthy 175 wRC+ in that split. Byron Buxton is also a very intriguing upside play – he has been a completely different player in the later part of the last two seasons. He owns a .323 ISO in the second half (.090 in the first half) and has been better against LHP on the season, so the spot against Holland is extremely appealing. Eduardo Escobar, Jorge Polanco and both Mitchell Garver/Chris Gimenez are viable in any format on the late slate in addition to Dozier/Buxton. Targeting a lefty or two here isn’t a bad idea in tournaments, but it’s worth noting that Holland has held lefties to a -2.1 Hd-Sft% on the season.
Other tagged players: Byron Buxton, Eduardo Escobar, Jorge Polanco, Derek Holland
Jose Berrios has a 3.12 SIERA and 25.5% K-BB% in his last two starts
Berrios has broken out of his slump in a big way over his last two starts against the Chicago White Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing just three combined earned runs in 12.1 innings pitched while striking out 15 batters in the process. Despite the aforementioned recent rough patch, Berrios certainly seems to have figured it out at the Major League level for the most part and has officially “arrived” as the front-end of the rotation starting pitcher he had been continuously touted as during the last couple of seasons. Since being called up from AAA in mid-May, he has a more than respectable 104:34 K: BB ratio and has seen his walk rate drop to 7.3% from the astronomical 12.5% walk rate he allowed in 14 starts last year. Berrios has also been incredible at limiting hard contact thus far, coming into tonight’s start with a 27.6% hard hit rate, and though that mark may be somewhat fluky due to sample size, his hard contact rate would still be below league average even if it was to increase a couple percentage points over time. It’s very easy to see that Berrios is a great young pitcher with strikeout potential (24.1% K% vs RHB) who has discovered decent control in the big leagues. Tonight, he’ll receive the added benefit of facing off with a susceptible Chicago White Sox squad (for the second time in as many outings) that ranks 24th in wRC+ (89), 28th in wOBA (.306), and 25th in ISO (.158) versus right-handed pitching. In addition to striking out at an exploitable 22.8% clip, the White Sox rank nearly dead last in walk rate (6.8% BB%), checking in with the third-worst mark by just three-tenths of a percentage point, which should very much favor Berrios this evening. So, on a slate with several similarly priced, borderline elite arms, Berrios is just as likely to post a tournament winning score as any of them and although it would have been nice to see a couple less left-handed batters in the Chicago lineup Wednesday night, Berrios remains a borderline cash game target and more than viable in large-field tournaments given in his built-in floor and upside combination in this matchup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Chase Anderson has lowest ERA on afternoon slate (2.87) but is fourth in SIERA (4.24)
Anderson has a lot of question marks this afternoon. He’s only thrown 5.0 innings in each start since coming off the DL, although his pitch count rose to 96 last time out. He’s done well in both of those outings, averaging 1.5 earned runs and 5.0 strikeouts. Overall, he’s posted a great 2.87 ERA this year. However, he’s done that despite a 45.3% FB% and 32.9% Hard% and his SIERA sits much higher at 4.24. While that’s definitely troublesome against guys like Matt Carpenter (44.0% Hard%, 51.0% FB%, .220 ISO against RHP this year), Paul DeJong (38.0% Hard%, 42.7% FB%, .249 ISO), Dexter Fowler (37.6% Hard%, 38.8% FB%, .235 ISO), and Randall Grichuk (39.4% Hard%, 38.3% FB%, .216 ISO), there isn’t very much depth at pitcher this afternoon. If we look at the positive side of things, Anderson has been able to mitigate the damage his peripherals could cause – to LHB, he’s allowed a .277 wOBA and .134 ISO on a .276 BABIP and to RHB, a .302 wOBA and .174 ISO with a .298 BABIP. In terms of upside, he holds a 10.4% SwStr% and 23.3% overall K% and the Cardinals’ lineup has combined for a 21.6% k-rate against RHP, one of the highest on the slate. Vegas gives the Cardinals 4.66 projected runs today, which is middle of the pack, and he’s the underdog in a matchup with Carlos Martinez. Given the uncertainty, he’s more of a tournament option, but he presents an interesting SP2 on this slate.
