DFS Alerts
Giancarlo Stanton (five HRs last seven days) is tonight's top projected batter against Edwin Jackson
Giancarlo Stanton is the top projected batter on the board tonight. Five of his major league leading 50 HRs have come in the last week and he faces Edwin Jackson in Washington, where weather is a concern. While Jackson has just a 36.4 GB% against RHBs, he also has just a 3.5 Hard-Soft% against them with a double digit SwStr% and 86.4 mph aEV overall. He hasn’t been terrible. Charlie Blackmon, Joey Votto, Mike Trout and Jose Altuve round out the top five. Blackmon’s team has the top implied run line, while Votto’s is second. However, neither of the pitchers they’re facing have allowed a lot of hard contact with Chris Flexen’s 83.9 mph aEV the lowest on the board. Votto is a virtual lock for a couple of free passes though. Trout (vs Chris Smith 10.8% Barrels/BBE) and Altuve (vs Martin Perez RHBs .364 wOBA & 17 HRs) are in more ideal spots. Top projected values include Billy Hamilton (3.88 Pt/$/K), who may be in a better position to take advantage of Flexen’s control issues, and Eduardo Nunez (3.82 Pt/$/K) on FanDuel. Nunez faces Brett Anderson, who hasn’t pitched in the majors in months. Matt Carpenter (2.35 Pt/$/K) is potentially a top DraftKings value against Matt Garza (LHBs .362 wOBA, 37.3 GB%, 36.9 Hard% this year).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Joey Votto, Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Billy Hamilton, Matt Carpenter, Eduardo Nunez
Pittsburgh currently owns the second-lowest implied team total (3.3) on Tuesday night's slate
It seems safe to finally say that Jake Arrieta has officially righted the ship following the All-Star break, allowing no more than two earned runs in each of his previous eight starts while pitching at least six innings in each aforementioned outing. This fantastic stretch of games is extremely nice to see after his shaky start to the 2017 campaign throughout the first half of the season. The biggest factors in the said decline earlier in the season had been a jump in Arrieta’s hard hit rate up to 28.2% and a decrease in his usually outstanding ground ball ability to 45.4%, essentially making his pitches more susceptible to home runs and potential big innings which lead to an extended adjustment period for the Cubs former ace. Although both of those statistics are roughly in line with league averages (or even slightly better), Arrieta’s contact and groundball skills were really what set him apart and made him a perennial Cy Young candidate. With that said, since the All-Star break, an eight-start sample size, Arrieta has managed to get somewhat back on track, notching a 26.1% hard-hit rate in spite of a similar 44.9% groundball rate. Unfortunately, it’s not all good news, as he seems to have sacrificed some of his strikeouts (23.3% K%) to get back to his normal low-hard-contact ways. Despite the small dip in strikeouts, Arrieta remains in play across the industry given the built-in safety of his matchup on Tuesday evening. This spot against a weak-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates offense does a lot to ease concerns of a possible blow-up start, as Pittsburgh ranks 27th in wRC+ (87), 27th in wOBA (.307), and 29th in ISO (.142) versus right-handed pitching this season. However, the Pirates have shown the propensity to make a ton of contact and strike out at just an 18.8% clip to righties, good for the second-best mark in the Majors, which could really limit the upside of Arrieta in the strikeout department. So, clearly, this matchup has a tremendous amount of safety from a run prevention standpoint, making Arrieta a perfect cash game target, especially if you are unable to pay all the way up to Chris Sale, who is the clear top pitcher on this slate for his floor and ceiling combination. Still, with all that said, it’s hard to argue against fading Arrieta in large-field tournaments given his substantial price tag and unlikelihood of posting a tournament winning score against this Pirates squad at home.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds
Indians @ Yankees postponed
Indians @ Yankees has been postponed due to rain. It will be made up as part of a double-header tomorrow.
As reported by: Jordan Bastian Luke Weaver has struck out 26 of 93 major league batters this year with an 84.7 mph aEV
Chris Sale is easily the top projected pitcher on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections), well ahead of Jake Arrieta. His 36 K% is well ahead of any other pitcher on the board, while his 15.2 SwStr% is the top mark as well, though he hasn’t seen 15% since his first start back from the break. Much has been made about his struggles against Cleveland in two of his last four starts, but his hard hit rate was above 30% for the first time in a month last time out. While it’s difficult to expect anyone to sustain what he was doing earlier in the season, he’s still the top pitcher on the board in Toronto (98 wRC+ vs LHP). Luke Weaver struck out 10 Padres in his last start and seems to have solved the hard contact and home run problems that plagued him last season (84.7 mph aEV this year), while striking out 26 of 93 major league batters. He may be the top overall value tonight. The Brewers have just a 9.8 HR/FB over the last week with a 31.4 K% and 25.7 K% vs RHP this year. Rich Hill has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (28.8%). Over his last 11 starts, he has a 26.2 K-BB%, though a 38.1 GB% and 33.1 Hard% that are a bit concerning in Arizona. He’s allowed seven HRs over his last five starts, but for the season, his 84.1 mph EV and 28.2% 95+ mph EV are board lows for those with more than six starts. Zack Godley’s 26.4 K%, 13.9 SwStr%, 55.6 GB% and 85.3 mph aEV is on the other side of that tough matchup against the Dodgers. He’s certainly still worth considering for less than $8.6K (just $7.7K on DraftKings). As mentioned, Jake Arrieta has the second best projection tonight. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs since the break. His 15.8 K-BB% and 6.5 Hard-Soft% over that span is good, but not great. His ground ball has been below 40% in half of these eight starts and three of his last four. He has one of the top matchups on the board against a weak hitting Pittsburgh offense with a 25.8 K% over the last week and 87 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Dylan Bundy has struck out 28 of his last 77 batters, but with a 43.5 Hard-Soft% over that span with most of his contact coming through the air. R.A. Dickey has a 15.1 K-BB% and 0.4 Hard-Soft% over his last 14 starts. Weather is a major concern for both though.
Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Rich Hill, Zack Godley, Jake Arrieta, R.A. Dickey, Dylan Bundy Hard hitting Rays over the last seven days unlikely to be tamed by Jakob Junis (89.1 mph aEV)
No active batter in the majors (10 PA min.) has a wRC+ that exceeds 300 over the last week. The top mark belongs to Corey Dickerson (285 wRC+, 40.9 Hard%, three HRs), while the highest hard hit rate belongs to teammate Lucas Duda (131 wRC+, 69.2 Hard%, three HRs) if we increase the PA limit to 15. They face Jakob Junis (89.1 mph aEV is tied for second highest on the slate). He’s actually generated ground ball at a much higher rate against LHBs so far (46.5% to 29.3%), but with no other significant platoon split. Players looking at Tampa Bay bats tonight will have a decision to make, as Logan Morrison has been hot as well (176 wRC+, 31.6 Hard%, three HRs). Rhys Hoskins (279 wRC+, 45.8 Hard%, six HRs) leads the majors in HRs over the last week, along with having the second highest wRC+. If the weather cooperates in Philadelphia, which doesn’t look likely at this point, he’ll get to face the knuckleball (R.A. Dickey has a 15.1 K-BB% and 0.4 Hard-Soft% over his last 14 starts). Tommy La Stella (274 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, three HRs) has been seeing more opportunities. If he’s so lucky tonight, he has a great matchup against Chad Kuhl (LHBs .367 wOBA, 37.9 GB% and 22.8 Hard-Soft% this season). Giancarlo Stanton (259 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, five HRs) deserves an honorable mention. He is scheduled to face Edwin Jackson (86.4 mph aEV, 31.4% 95+ mph EV), who has just a 36.4 GB% against RHBs, but with a 3.5 Hard-Soft%, but that game is also at the mercy of weather conditions.
Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Jakob Junis, Logan Morrison, Tommy La Stella, Rhys Hoskins, Giancarlo Stanton, Chad Kuhl, R.A. Dickey, Edwin Jackson East coast weather issues and competent pitching at Coors could cause havoc on Tuesday night slate
Eight of 30 teams on a full board have an implied run line above five tonight on a very difficult to navigate slate. The Colorado Rockies remain a half run above anyone else at 5.99 runs despite not fulfilling commitments against Jordan Zimmermann last night and facing a pitcher who is much better at managing contact tonight in Michael Fulmer (49.1 GB%, 85.7 mph aEV, 29.3% 95+ mph EV), the last of which is third best on the board among those with more than six starts today. The Cincinnati Reds have the next highest run line (5.5), but Chris Flexen has the lowest aEV (83.9 mph) and 95+ mph EV (27.2%) on the board in his first six starts, where he’s walked one more than he’s struck out. Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP) is a virtual lock for free passes tonight, but it’s tough to count on much else. Players must also be cognizant of weather concerns on the east coast with the potential to impact or even wipe out up to four games tonight. Offensively, Washington (5.25) and Baltimore (5.04 runs) are both at risk. Among the rest of the offenses projected above five runs, Detroit (5.01) gets a Coors boost, but German Marquez is also not a bad pitcher (21.4 K%, 4.18 ERA, 4.32 SIERA), though the Tigers can take advantage of an 88.7 mph aEV, while it’s actually been RHBs that have done more damage against him (.333 wOBA, 20.1 Hard-Soft% with 13 of his 17 HRs allowed). Justin Upton (120 wRC+, .233 ISO, 43.2 Hard%, 43.2 FB% vs RHP) is the prize there. No other Tiger has an above average wRC+ with an ISO above .160 vs RHP this year. Houston has a 5.42 implied run line against Martin Perez, who occasionally frustrates, but has surrendered a .350 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% to RHBs since last season. Minnesota is projected for 5.33 runs against James Shields, where many players are likely to direct an all out assault. However, Shields has a 25.8 K% over the last month, his barrels rate is now in single digits, his 87.6 mph aEV barely bottom 10 on the board and his hard hit rate has been below 30% in each of his last two starts, while the Twins have a 17.2 K-BB% and 21.8 Hard% over the last week. He has still allowed 20 HRs in 15 starts, so selective exposure to Twins bats is still warranted. The Angels (5.19 implied runs) against Chris Smith might be the most interesting matchup on the slate. His 8.5% Barrels/PA is highest on the board with 11 HRs allowed in his seven starts. RHBs have 10 of those 11 HRs with a .374 wOBA, while batters from both side have a hard hit rate above 34% this year and LHBs have just a 31.1 GB%. Fire up Mike Trout (196 wRC+, .362 ISO, 40.5 Hard%, 45.9 FB% vs RHP), who should be back in the lineup tonight, and a few of his close friends.
Other tagged players: Michael Fulmer, German Marquez, Martin Perez, James Shields, Mike Trout Wrigley is the lone area of concern in Kevin's evening forecast.
The good news is that other than wind conditions, only one game is even mentioned as a weather risk in Kevin’s evening forecast. The bad news is that the forecast is a slight downgrade from the morning forecast. The Pirates @ Cubs is now considered YELLOW/ORANGE. Mike Montgomery could have gotten some play as a low priced pitcher in a decent spot, but the additional risk of a delay may have players reconsidering now. While PPD risk is low, it’s not completely out of the question, which could also put some potentially useful lower priced bats in this game at risk. Aside from reading the report on the Weather page, players should certainly tune into Kevin’s updates in Premium Expert Chat for more on this game.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Premium Expert Chat Jeff Samardzija expected to be one of the more popular pitchers in San Diego tonight
As expected, the Rockies are expected to be more popular than any other lineup. Among seven batters currently projected to be in more than 15% of lineups on FanDuel, five of them are Rockies. On DraftKings, four are Rockies and two are Tigers, keeping the party almost entirely Coors based. Corey Kluber is projected to be the most popular pitcher, though not overwhelmingly so on a 10 game slate. One of the reasons being a number of other viable arms on the slate and another the amount of mashing projected to occur at Coors tonight. One player with an interesting projection is Max Scherzer, who is currently hovering around 15% on either site. While the highest price on the board certainly plays some part in keeping his projected ownership rates down, there are going to be some players who are less concerned with the two week layoff. Jeff Samardzija could be the popular lower priced pitcher of choice on either site with Andrew Heaney possibly getting some consideration as an SP2 with either Kluber or Scherzer. Drew Pomeranz might be an acceptable Samardzija pivot if he’s going to be in less than half as many lineups. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, Drew Pomeranz Jordan Zimmermann allows a lot of hard contact, but the two highest aEVs are outside of Coors
The Rays are not one of the five teams projected above five runs tonight, but they’re closest to it among those that are not (4.94 implied runs). While players don’t necessarily need to stack Tampa Bay bats Ian Kennedy is someone players might want a lot of exposure against tonight outside of Coors. He’s allowed multiple HRs in three straight starts, the last two at home. His 89.8 mph aEV is second highest on the board. Jose Urena is a pitcher that can just about never be used, but is not always someone to attack with just an 85.4 mph aEV. He’s had a hard hit rate above 35% and a below average GB% in three of his last four starts though. Lucas Sims has an 83.9 mph aEV that’s lowest on the board through five starts. While there’s also a tremendously small sample size caveat, note just a small difference in wOBA allowed (.358 vs RHBs, .346 vs LHBs) despite a large gap in contact quality (38.6 Hard% vs RHBs, 20% vs LHBs). The three lowest rates of exit velocity above 95 mph tonight are Mike Montgomery (27.8%), Jhoulys Chacin (28.3%) and Trevor Williams (28.8%), none among the top pitchers on tonight’s slate. While Chacin is facing the Giants, he has a 12.9 BB% and 30.9 Hard% over his last six starts. Another pitcher that players should be all over though, is Chris Tillman, who has allowed 18 HRs over his last 54 innings and has the highest average exit velocity on the board (89.9 mph). For more on which batters are making the hardest contact and which pitchers are allowing it, premium subscribers should check out the daily Trendspotting article.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Trendspotting Other tagged players: Mike Montgomery, Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Williams, Chris Tillman, Jose Urena, Lucas Sims Charlie Blackmon is projected a full point above any other hitters tonight
Nobody will be surprised that Charlie Blackmon is the top projected batter by the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. He’s at least a point above any other player with a 148 wRC+ and .304 ISO vs RHP. Jordan Zimmermann has a 40+ Hard% in six of his last eight starts and each of his last three, elevating him to another level with the Rockies implied for seven runs at home tonight. Nolan Arenado is projected second best with two more Rockies among the top 10 on either site (five of the top 11 on DraftKings). Baltimore is the only other offense to place two batters (Manny Machado & Jonathan Schoop) in the top 10. Both exceed a .250 ISO vs LHP, but Machado has just a 26.7 Hard% over the last week. Marco Gonzales has a 50 GB% and 6.4 Hard-Soft%, but his 44.9% 95+ mph EV is highest on the board and he’s allowed a HR in all five games started this year. Everyone is going to be looking for value bats tonight and FanDuel makes that an easier proposition with Andrew McCutchen (3.93 Pt/$/K) for just $2.8K against Mike Montgomery. He has a 186 wRC+ and .402 ISO vs LHP this year. Top projected values on DraftKings include Nick Williams (2.52 Pt/$/K) and Logan Morrison (2.4 Pt/$/K), both at $3.5K or less.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Logan Morrison, Andrew McCutchen, Nick Williams Since the All-Star break, Luis Severino has allowed a 24.1% HH% in addition to a prototypical 21.1% K-BB%
Luis Severino continues to chug along in what is guaranteed to be a breakout season at this point for the once highly-touted youngster. Outside of a one-start hiccup earlier in August where he surrendered eight earned runs to the Boston Red Sox in just 4.1 innings pitched, Severino has allowed no more than one earned run in any of his other previous seven outings, so he will certainly be aiming to stay on track in a matchup with the Cleveland Indians this evening. Unfortunately for him, this Indians team is a well above-average offense against right-handed pitching, ranking 6th in wRC+ (104), 7th in wOBA (.330), and 10th in ISO (.188) while striking out at just a 19.7% rate, good for seventh-best in the entire league. If just evaluating Severino’s matchup, the outlook certainly seems bleak for him on Monday night with Cleveland possessing several power threats from the left-side of the plate to take advantage of Severino’s lesser (but still pretty good) splits versus lefties. The reason(s) to feel good about Severino as a tournament target in this spot is just the elite all-around skill set he takes to the mound with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 50.5% groundball rate in addition to a below-average hard contact (28.6%). These type of statistics are normally a winning combination for a starting pitcher, no matter the matchup. Severino also brings his skills up a notch against right-handed batters, inducing ground balls at a 54.5% clip while limiting hard contact to just 26.2% of the time, which should play very well in counteracting the four righties in this Cleveland lineup this evening. So, with that said, Severino clearly possesses a similar floor and ceiling combo to the other stud pitchers on the mound tonight at a massive discount across the industry. The aforementioned pitchers, Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer, may end up being the preferred targets of daily fantasy players for this slate as well, leaving Severino at a potential ownership discount in large-field tournaments. For cash games, it’s hard to argue against Kluber on any site, as he has been the best pitcher in the game for a few months now, but Severino remains the clear option over Scherzer in all formats given the price discrepancy and the fact that Scherzer will be making his first start since being activated from the disabled list this evening.
As reported by: FanGraphs Corey Kluber struck out at least eight in each of the last 18 starts he did not leave with an injury
Max Scherzer is the top projected pitcher on the board (RotoGrinders Player Projections), which does not account for factors outside of performance like a two week layoff and the Nationals having little to play for. On the other hand, the Washington bullpen has been worn out starting with an extra-inning game on Thursday and concluding in a Sunday double header. If ownership rates look to be lower than usual, there is some reason to think he may throw enough pitches to be worth his extremely high cost. Corey Kluber is probably the top pitcher in the minds of most players tonight. He has struck out at least eight in each of the last 18 starts he did not leave early due to an injury. He’s also allowed a HR in eight straight, but with just a 5.5 Hard-Soft% over that span and Aaron Judge out of the lineup tonight, that’s much less of a concern. Six of the nine HRs over that span have gone to RHBs, so Gary Sanchez at $3K on FanDuel is not completely insane. Other quality pitching choices include Aaron Nola, who has struggled over his last two starts, but struck out at least seven in 10 of his last 12 starts and has a 17.7 K-BB%, 49 GB% and 85.9 mph aEV on the season. He faces the Braves (88 wRC+, 11.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Luis Severino has struck out at least eight in five of his last six. His 21.9 K-BB% is seventh best among qualified pitchers with no pitcher above him exceeding his 50.5 GB%. Cleveland is a tough matchup, but he dominated them on the road in his first start of August (6.1 IP – 1 ER – 9 K). Marcus Stroman has a 62.2 GB% that leads all quailed pitchers by 2.8 points and is nearly eight points ahead of the third best pitcher. He occasionally struggles with hard contact, but while the Red Sox might hinder his league average strikeout rate slightly, it’s a below average offense (91 wRC+ vs RHP) with below average power (11.2 HR/FB vs RHP). In the $8.5K range, Drew Pomeranz has a 25 K% that’s fifth best on the board with a wOBA 100 points lower with more ground balls against RHBs than LHBs and Jeff Samardzija has just a 17.5 K% (6.7 SwStr%) over the last month, but pitches in San Diego tonight (25.1 K% vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Marcus Stroman, Drew Pomeranz, Jeff Samardzija Corey Dickerson has a 309 wRC+ and 47.4 Hard% over the last week, in a great spot against Ian Kennedy tonight
Corey Dickerson (309 wRC+, 47.4 Hard%, three HRs) is the only batter on the slate above a 300 wRC+ over the last week with more than 15 PAs. He’s in a great spot against Ian Kennedy, who has allowed multiple HRs in three straight starts and has the second highest average exit velocity on the board (89.8 mph). He has made 40% of his contact in the air against RHPs this season, while Kennedy has just a 34.7 GB% against LHBs. Tommy La Stella (317 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%, three HRs) has the highest wRC+ with just 15 PAs over the last week though, and is a potentially a popular, low cost play tonight. Looking at players that have hit the ball the hardest over the last week, pulls Lucas Duda (111 wRC+, 77.8 Hard%, two HRs, 33.3 K%) in a similarly great spot against Kennedy and Alex Avila (146 wRC+, 75 Hard%, no HRs, 42.9 K%), who has some red flags in that strikeout rate and a matchup against a pitcher who has held LHBs to a -3.1 Hard-Soft% this year, though can hardly be considered a poor play at a very reasonable cost tonight. The HR leader for the week is Rhys Hoskins (287 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%) with six. He’s sure to be popular against Lucas Sims, whom RHBs have a .358 wOBA and 38.6 Hard% against through fie major league starts.
Other tagged players: Tommy La Stella, Lucas Duda, Alex Avila, Rhys Hoskins Cubs have low cost Jon Jay and Tommy La Stella atop lineup against Trevor Williams
The Cubs may have done daily fantasy players a tremendous favor placing Jon Jay ($3.2K DK/$2.7K FD) and Tommy La Stella ($3.3K DK/$2.7K FD) atop their lineup tonight. While not excessive, their 4.74 implied run line is still on the top half of the board at home against Trevor Williams, who has a 10.7 BB%, while they have a 9.3 BB% vs RHP and 17.2 HR/FB at home. The consideration against a full on stack against Williams though, includes an 85 mph aEV and 28.8% 95+ mph EV. The man just does not allow a lot of hard contact and while the wind at Wrigley is not blasting in, Kevin’s forecast calls for “winds ESE at 10mph, gusts a bit stronger, blowing a bit right to left, and a bit in from right”. Players who are paying up for their pitching tonight, certainly need to at least strongly consider the first two batters in the order though (Jay & La Stella) as a path to more expensive bats elsewhere. Unfortunately, players will likely be on these bats, seeing a pitcher with a .315 wOBA against LHBs this year without seeing the 48.7 GB% and -3.1 Hard-Soft%.
Other tagged players: Tommy La Stella, Trevor Williams Jordan Zimmermann has a 40+ Hard% in three straight and six of eight starts since the break
Seven of 20 teams (35%) are projected above 4.8 runs on a 10 game slate on Monday night with Jordan Zimmermann the obvious target at Coors with the Rockies (7.14 implied runs) nearly two runs above the next highest team (Detroit 5.36). The Rockies have just a 90 wRC+ at home and 81 wRC+ vs RHP (only four regulars above a 95 wRC+, .190 ISO and 35 Hard% against RHP), but there’s no denying that Zimmermann is deserving of an all out assault with a hard hit rate above 40% in three straight starts and six of eight since the break, over which he also has just a 30.5 GB%. While batters from either side have a wOBA above .360 against him over this span, Charlie Blackmon is the obvious, far and away top batter on the slate with a 148 wRC+, .304 ISO, 39.2 Hard% and 40.4 FB% against RHP this year. The trick is going to be in attempting to afford Coors bats on slate with several expensive pitchers. While DraftKings players can pay down for their SP2 and take chances with riskier guys like Mike Montgomery (3.1% Barrels/BBE, 27.8% 95+ mph EV), Andrew Heaney (seven HRs, 12.5 SwStr% through two starts vs A’s 23.8 K% vs LHP) or Marco Gonzales (9.8% or better SwStr in four of five starts, Baltimore 17.2 K-BB% vs LHP), FanDuel players may not want to go any lower than Drew Pomeranz (25 K% is fifth best on the board) or Jeff Samardizja (in San Diego – 25.1 K% vs RHP) in the $8.5K range.
Other tagged players: Jordan Zimmermann, Mike Montgomery, Andrew Heaney, Marco Gonzales, Drew Pomeranz, Jeff Samardzija