DFS Alerts
Caleb Joseph scratched Saturday; Welington Castillo replaces and will bat eighth
Joseph has officially been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles lineup for tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Angles due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in said lineup by Welington Castillo, who will take over the catching duties and bat eighth. This lineup change will bump Anthony Santander down one spot in the order to ninth respectively. However, the remainder of the Orioles previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Baltimore Orioles Other tagged players: Welington Castillo
Risk increased in STL-PIT game to ORANGE in latest MLB weather forecast
After his initial Saturday MLB weather forecast, Kevin Roth felt the need to increase his risk assessment the matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The game in Pittsburgh has officially been downgraded to ORANGE due to the increased likelihood of a pregame or early delay. A pregame delay would be great news for starting pitchers in this contest but if no announcement is made prior to game time, it may be best to avoid starting pitchers in Pittsburgh altogether. Additionally, Kevin can’t fully rule out the possibility of a postponement, though he expects the teams to resume play following the likely rain delay. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Max Scherzer scratched Friday; Matt Grace will start in his place
Scherzer has officially been scratched from his start in tonight’s game against the San Diego Padres due to the neck stiffness that has been an issue for him over the past few weeks. In his place, Matt Grace will receive the starting nod and is obviously a clear downgrade in terms of pitching ability from Scherzer. Meaning, Padres hitters could provide some substantial value at their depressed price tags on Friday’s main and late slate.
As reported by: Dan Kolko Other tagged players: Matt Grace J.D. Martinez scratched Friday; Brandon Drury replaces and will bat seventh
Martinez has officially been scratched from the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup for tonight’s game against the Minnesota Twins due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in said lineup by Brandon Drury, who will take over the designated hitter duties and bat eighth. This lineup change will bump Daniel Descalso and Chris Iannetta each up one spot in the order to fifth and sixth respectively. However, the remainder of the Diamondbacks previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Mike Berardino Marlins @ Mets to be delayed
The Marlins @ Mets will be delayed. It was expected from Kevin’s forecast. The delay could be a lengthy one with some risk, but it should clear out if they have the patience to wait a couple of hours.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo
Start of Friday's LAA-BAL game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW in his updated weather forecast due to the chances of a pregame rain delay. However, Kevin expects the game to play through without further delays once they decide to resume. So, clearly, this allows both starting pitchers and hitters to remain in play as viable options. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page for more information. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: Jeff Fletcher Colorado now up over seven implied runs
The Colorado Rockies did not start the afternoon with the top implied run line, a rarity at home, even with an implied run line well above six (6.73). They have since climbed up over seven runs (7.18) and lead Texas (6.96) by a little over two-tenths of a run. The Houston Astros are the other team at the top of the board to make a major move upward over the course of the day. They started the afternoon at 5.1 runs, but currently sit fourth at 5.41 implied runs. Closer to the bottom of the board earlier this afternoon, both San Francisco (4.44 to 4.72) and Philadelphia (3.56 to 3.78) have made significant moves upwards as players may be able to expect a little more offense out of that game than originally projected. The biggest downward move over the course of the afternoon belongs to Baltimore, who has dropped from 5.57 runs (fourth) to 5.2 runs (sixth). Players can find run lines and movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Matt Moore expected to be popular in an SP2 role against the Phillies for just $5K on DraftKings
Considering the matchup in San Diego, Max Scherzer is projected to appear in an over-whelming percentage of DraftKings lineups and around a quarter of FanDuel ones as well currently. This, in addition to several high run totals on the board, is going to help spread out offensive ownership rates with Eric Thames on DraftKings, the only hitter currently projected to be in more than 15% of lineups on either site, out of the leadoff spot at Coors tonight. One interesting trend that could take place on DraftKings is Matt Moore in an SP2 role in near 40% of lineups. He costs just $5K at home against the Phillies and struck out a season high nine batters last time out. A Scherzer/Moore combination will cost $19.1K and allow players some semblance of offensive maneuverability. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Eric Thames Some ORANGE In the north east (Boston, New York) in Kevin's evening forecast
There is at least some postponement risk in both Boston (vs New York AL) and New York (NL) (vs Miami). The AL East affair may not be all that interesting from a DFS perspective with two fairly capable LHPs going in Boston and neither offense really punishing LHP this year. While players are unlikely to be concerned with pitchers in the NL East affair, cheap RH New York Met bats could be attractive against Justin Nicolino tonight. Players will have to assess risk as this is these are both the first game of a division series. Other, less concerning areas with rain potential are Baltimore (vs Los Angeles AL) and Kansas City (vs Cleveland). Corey Kluber’s start does not appear to be in jeopardy, but this could push ownership further towards Max Scherzer tonight, who already has the much better matchup. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to join Kevin in Expert Chat to receive important updates in the last hour before first pitch.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Expert Chat Kolten Wong scratched
Kolten Wong has been scratched with a hip issue. No word on his replacement yet.
As reported by: Jim Hayes Negative run environments can provide affordable bats with positive opposing pitcher matchups
There are several spots tonight, not near the top of the board in terms of expected team runs, where pitchers have allowed a high hard hit rate with a wOBA above .350, where players can take advantage of affordable bats if they are willing to accept a negative run environment. It’s rare that San Francisco draws any interest from an offensive perspective in a daily fantasy setting, but their 4.72 run projection from Vegas, although smack in the middle of tonight’s board, is actually fairly high for them. The reason being that Zach Eflin has been terrible in his short career against LHBs. He’s struck out just 10.5% of them with a .385 wOBA and 37 Hard%. The most appealing part is probably that the San Francisco bats are very affordable too. However, among those projected to start tonight, only Denard Span (110 wRC+, .180 ISO) and Jarrett Parker (93 wRC+, .161 ISO) have been even average against RHP this season. In another difficult west coast setting, LHBs have a .370 wOBA and 37.3 Hard% against Luis Perdomo with 53% of their contact on the ground (much lower than RHBs). Daniel Murphy (138 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP) projects best there, but Adam Lind (120 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP) could serve as a cheap OF bat. Nick Williams (141 wRC+, .242 ISO vs LHP) could have value against Matt Moore (LHBs .365 wOBA, 33.1 Hard% since last season). RH Mets like Yoenis Cespedes (107 wRC+, .279 ISO vs LHP), but more affordably, Asdrubal Cabrera (118 wRC+, .086 ISO vs LHP), Wilmer Flores (110 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP), Amed Rosario (144 wRC+, 40 Hard% last seven days), Travis D’arnaud (141 wRC+, .242 ISO vs LHP) and Juan Lagares (102 wRC+, .167 ISO vs LHP) could all provide value against Justin Nicolino (RHBs .355 wOBA, 34.8 Hard% since last season). The Mets are the only one of these teams projected above five runs (5.06) and they have just the seventh highest implied run total on the board.
Other tagged players: Travis d'Arnaud, Juan Lagares, Amed Rosario, Nick Williams, Adam Lind, Denard Span, Jarrett Parker Four of the top five projected bats reside at Coors tonight
Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are the top projected batters on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections). The Coors duo hosts Matt Garza tonight. LHBs have a .350 wOBA and 36.5 Hard% against him since last season, while the park will amplify his .308 wOBA and 32.2 Hard% against RHBs as well, though RHBs have also been grounded on 51.7% of batted balls. The Brewers also check in with two batters in the top five (Ryan Braun and Travis Shaw) against German Marquez, while Eric Thames also appears in the top 10 on DraftKings. Marquez has struck out just 12 of his last 72 batters and it’s actually RHBs that have had more success against him in his career so far (.339 wOBA, 37.2 Hard%, 40.8 GB%). The Houston Astros also have a pair of top 10 projected bats (George Springer, Jose Altuve) against Sean Manaea, who’s season has cratered. He has a 9.31 ERA/5.67 SIERA over the last month and averaged a season low 90.3 mph velocity last time out. Players are looking for value out of their bats with extraordinarily high priced pitching tonight. Jason Kipnis (4.13 Pt/$/K) and Shin-Soo Choo (3.91 Pt/$/K) project for the most on FanDuel. Matt Carpenter (2.83 Pt/$/K) projects well on DraftKings.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Travis Shaw, Ryan Braun, Eric Thames, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Jason Kipnis, Shin-soo Choo, Matt Carpenter Daily K Predictor projects another double digit strikeout performance from Max Scherzer in San Diego
Max Scherzer has a Daily K Predictor projection of 10.48 strikeouts in a great matchup in San Diego tonight. He’s two full strikeouts ahead of Corey Kluber (8.31) at a similar cost. No other pitcher eclipses seven strikeouts (Rich Hill). Unsurprisingly, these are the top three strikeout rates on the slate with only Carlos Martinez (25.9%) and Zack Godley (25.8%) additionally reaching 25% this year. Scherzer also tops Kluber in total projected fantasy points according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections with every other pitcher well behind. Each has more games in double digit strikeouts than single digits. The two major differences in matchups is that San Diego is a much more negative run environment than Kansas City and the Padres strike out a quarter of the time vs RHP. It’s going to be very difficult to add high end bats with either of those pitchers in the lineup though. Another consideration might be Dallas Keuchel, who struck out seven in his last start after three or fewer in each of his first three starts back from the DL. He has a 56.5 GB% since returning and is in another high strikeout spot against the A’s (24.7 K% vs LHP, 20.9 K-BB% last seven days). Martinez has a 59.1 GB% over his last four starts with at least seven strikeouts in each. He pitches against a predominantly right-handed, low power Pittsburgh lineup in a park that suppresses right-handed power. Godley has the third highest SwStr rate (14.4%) on the board, which he combines with a 55.7 GB%. He has a 3.4 Hard-Soft% on the road. The Twins are a poor offense against ground ball pitchers (84 sOPS+) and have an 18.8 K-BB% over the last week. While Minnesota is not a negative run environment, almost anything outside of Arizona serves as an upgrade for Godley. Hill has been pitching well, but is in a tough spot (Detroit 114 wRC+ at home, 123 wRC+ vs LHP) and may have workload limitations. He threw 101 pitches in his last start, just his second above 100 this year. That could actually work against him tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Rich Hill, Carlos Martinez, Zack Godley, Dallas Keuchel Eric Hosmer has nine extra base hits and a 96.7 mph aEV against Corey Kluber
Batter vs Pitcher is not always the most reliable information, but in the case of the Indians and Royals tonight, there is a lot of data. Both Mike Moustakas (40 PA, seven extra-base hits, 13 BBEs, 93 mph aEV) and Eric Hosmer (54 PAs, three HRs, nine extra-base hits, 19 BBEs, 96.7 mph aEV) have had great success in a large sample size against one of the top pitchers on the slate tonight (Cory Kluber), although he’s never been this dominant before. On the other side, Carlos Santana (25 PAs, two extra-base hits, 13 BBEs, 99.5 mph aEV), Jason Kipnis (22 PAs, four extra-base hits, 12 BBEs, 95.2 mph aEV) and Jose Ramirez (16 PAs, four extra-base hits, 13 BBEs, 93 mph aEV) have all hit Ian Kennedy hard in smaller, but mostly relevant samples. This information was taken from a combination of Baseball Savant (BBEs, aEV) and Daily Baseball Data (PAs, HRs, extra-base hits), which has more up to date totals.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez Giancarlo Stanton leads the slate in wRC+ (332) and HRs (five) over the last week
Giancarlo Stanton (332 wRC+, 61.1 Hard%, five HRs) is the hottest hitter in the league, even though his streak of consecutive games with a HR was recently snapped, he still ties for the slate lead with Edwin Encarnacion (231 wRC+, 38.5 Hard%, five HRs) for most HRs over the last seven days. Stanton has an interesting matchup with a talented rookie (Chris Flexen), who has a league average SwStr rate (9.7%) and 83.5 mph aEV through four major league starts, but a double digit walk rate after just a 3.9 BB% at AA this season. That game also has weather concerns. Encarnacion meets fly ball prone Ian Kennedy (RHBs 31 GB%, 38.9 Hard% since last year) in Kansas City. Cody Bellinger (329 wRC+, 38.5 Hard%, one HR) will be in as many lineups as players can fit against Jordan Zimmermann (LHBs .354 wOBA, 36.8 GB%, 36 Hard% since last season). Jose Abreu (273 wRC+, 47.6 Hard%, four HRs) is in Texas against Andrew Cashner, who somehow finds a way to avoid HRs in that park (7.9 HR/FB this year). Cory Spangenberg (272 wRC+, 36.8 Hard%, four HRs) has as many HRs this week as he did in 345 PAs in 2015. He faces a pitcher who has allowed 19 HRs this year and 31 HRs last year, 30 of the 50 to LHBs. Nobody will be on him tonight…and for pretty good reasons.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Cody Bellinger, Jose Abreu, Cory Spangenberg