DFS Alerts
Affordable bats in Texas could provide a path to Scherzer or Kluber.
The Colorado Rockies are implied for an absurd 6.76 runs tonight at home against Matt Garza. That’s nearly a full run above the next highest team, the Dodgers, at 5.88 runs in Detroit against Jordan Zimmermann. The Rockies do not have the top implied run line tonight though. That currently goes to the Rangers (6.86 runs), hosting James Shields. That’s a lot of punishment to be doled out. The question may be how best to afford those bats with Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber on the mound, costing above $13K on DraftKings and around $11.5K on FanDuel. Prominent Colorado bats and even Milwaukee ones against German Marquez are likely out of the question if going with one of the two elite pitchers. The Dodgers could have some affordable bats with the ability to go yard in the back half of the lineup: Yasiel Puig (134 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP this year), Yasmani Grandal (109 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP) and Joc Pederson (109 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP) are all around $3.5K on DraftKings and $3K or less on FanDuel. The game in Texas could be most interesting. There may be room for a couple of affordable Texas bats down in the order (Robinson Chirinos 115 wRC+, .311 ISO vs RHP, Mike Napoli 76 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP, Shin-Soo Choo 107 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP), though players may also want to look at the other side of that matchup too. Andrew Cashner is somehow sporting a 7.9 HR/FB that’s around half the league rate and keeping his ERA over two runs below his SIERA. The White Sox are implied for 4.64 runs tonight, somewhere in the middle of the board. He has struck out just one more LHB than he’s walked with just a 37.7 GB% this year. Players will have to rely on small sample sizes for cheap bats, but Nick Delmonico (174 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP), Yoan Moncada (144 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP) and Leury Garcia (121 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) all make tremendous sense. The Baltimore Orioles are the last time projected above five and a half runs (5.57) against Andrew Heaney, returning from Tommy John surgery tonight. Nine more teams are between 4.87 and 5.24 implied runs on a 14 game slate tonight.
Other tagged players: Robinson Chirinos, Shin-soo Choo, Nicky Delmonico, Yoan Moncada, Leury Garcia, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig
Avisail Garcia scratched Thursday; Alen Hanson replaces and will bat eighth
Avisail Garcia has officially been scratched from the Chicago White Sox lineup for tonight’s game against the Texas Rangers due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in said lineup by Alen Hanson, who will take over the right field duties and bat eighth. This lineup change will bump Yolmer Sanchez, Tim Anderson, and Omar Narvaez all up one spot in the order to fifth, sixth and seventh respectively. However, the remainder of the White Sox previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Colleen Kane Other tagged players: Alen Hanson
Adam Wainwright has struck out just seven of 91 batters (10 walks) with a 25 LD% since the break
Adam Wainwright continues his downward slide. He has struck out just seven of 91 batters since the break (10 walks) with a 25% line drive rate. A 3.38 ERA over that span is backed by a .214 BABIP and 80.7 LOB% with estimators more than two runs higher. His velocity plummeted to from an 89.9 mph average this season to 83.6 mph in his last start. The Pirates have the third highest implied run line on the board (4.84), but it’s uncertain where that production is supposed to come from. They have an 85 wRC+ vs RHP and play in a park that punishes RH power. Josh Bell (119 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Andrew McCutchen (110 wRC+, .162 ISO) are the only batters with a wRC+ above 100 or an ISO above .150 vs RHP this year. Josh Bell (220 wRC+) is the only batter with a wRC+ above 80 over the last week and that comes with just a 12.5 Hard%. Considering that neither Bell or McCutchen come all that cheap, perhaps hopes are pinned on Starling Marte (92 wRC+, .085 ISO vs RHP this year) and Josh Harrison (98 wRC+, .134 ISO vs RHP) at lower costs atop the lineup. In light of Kevin’s ominous weather forecast (currently ORANGE), this may not be an ideal spot for daily fantasy players.
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Adam Wainwright, Josh Harrison, Starling Marte Edwin Jackson has estimators well more than a run above his ERA, but just a 4.4 Hard-Soft% and 10.3 SwStr%
Edwin Jackson has a 3.86 ERA, but a 4.79 SIERA, which is actually the lowest of his ERA estimators (5.18 xFIP, 5.88 FIP, 5.89 DRA). At first glance, a .262 BABIP seems primarily responsible, but he’s actually surrendered 22 runs in 35 innings, but 31.8% of them (seven) have been unearned. His 10.7% Barrels/BBE is a slate high and players should probably consider attacking him thoroughly tonight. Except that his 4.4 Hard-Soft% isn’t terrible and his 10.7 K-BB% is not too far below league average, while his 10.3 SwStr% is above it. And he’s facing the Padres (25.3 K% vs RHP) at Petco. Nobody is suggesting rostering Jackson (RHBs .377 wOBA, 34.2 Hard%/LHBs .340 wOBA, 31.6 hard% since last season), but this is a lukewarm spot with the Padres implied for 4.35 runs, towards the middle of the board. Cory Spangenberg (127 wRC+, .19O ISO vs RHP this season) has gone on a sudden power binge (287 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%), but is now the most expensive bat in the lineup. Wil Myers (99 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Pirela (132 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP) are the ones who have shown the most power vs RHPs this year. Both have a hard hit rate of at least half their batted balls over the last week. Manuel Margot (84 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP) and Yangervis Solarte (119 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP)…are in the lineup too. Players can pick and choose the necessary Padres to fill out their lineups tonight, but doesn’t appear an optimal spot for offensive firepower, even with Edwin Jackson on the mound opposing them.
Other tagged players: Edwin Jackson, Wil Myers, Jose Pirela, Manuel Margot, Yangervis Solarte Largest weather risk in STL-PIT game on Thursday's main slate
For the second night in a row, we’ve been dealt a less than optimistic MLB weather forecast by Kevin Roth for at least one of the five games on Thursday’s main slate. The game that currently checks in with the highest weather risk is in Pittsburgh for the matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates with a grade of ORANGE due to the likelihood of a rain delay and possibility of a postponement. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below for more information. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Aaron Nola has a 21.9 K-BB%, 50 GB% and 7.6 Hard-Soft% over his last 10 starts
Aaron Nola has gone at least seven innings in seven of his last 10 starts, over which he has a 21.9 K-BB%, 50% ground ball rate and 7.6 Hard-Soft%, all right around or slight improvements upon his season numbers (18.5 K-BB%, 49.8 GB%, 6.7 Hard-Soft%). His cost is in line with Luis Severino, an equally dominant pitcher, on either site tonight. Coincidentally, they pitch in similarly extremely negative run environments tonight, though San Francisco suppresses power more. The Giants strike out less than the average team, but still 19.3% vs RHP and shouldn’t suppress his strikeout total by more than one or two. They also have just a 6.0 HR/FB at home, 6.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP and 6.7 HR/FB with a 4.1 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Over this 10 start stretch, Nola hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in any start and has struck out at least seven batters nine times. There’s no obvious reason that strong run shouldn’t continue here. Batters from either side have a ground ball rate above 50% and wOBA below .300 against him since last season. There are no desirable bats from the projected San Francisco lineup or even among those not projected to start, but in the interest of being thorough on a five game slate, Denard Span (111 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP this year), Brandon Belt (133 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP) and Joe Panik (268 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%) would be the guys to look at if looking to go contrarian tonight.
Other tagged players: Denard Span, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik Jameson Taillon has a 21.8% K-BB% versus RHB, faces just three LHB Thursday
Jameson Taillon comes into tonight’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals looking to keep the good times rolling, as he has allowed just two earned runs while striking out seven or more batters in each of his last two starts. Taillon possesses all the skills needed to succeed at the Major League level, recording strikeouts at a slightly above-average clip (22.4% K%), has solid control (7.1% BB%), and is able to keep the ball on the ground relatively consistently (49.3% GB%). Adding on top to those already fantastic attributes, he also has great run prevention skills built into his pitching profile with a 27.5% strikeout rate to right-handed batters and an above-average 53.4% groundball rate and below-average 26.3% hard hit rate to lefties, enabling him to more efficiently work his way out of potential jams. Even though his walk rate versus lefties (9.0%) is much higher than his 5.7% walk rate righties, it’s clear that this disparity is intentional on his part and is forcing left-handed batters to chase pitches outside of the strike zone or take their free base. Fortunately, Taillon will only have three lefties to deal with on Thursday night, which will definitely help him out in both the walk and run prevention departments against this Cardinals squad that is nothing special against right-handed pitching, ranking 13th in wRC+ (99), 9th in wOBA (.327), and 19th in ISO (.165) while striking out 21.7% of time, a mark good enough to land them right in the middle of the pack among MLB offenses. Realistically, Taillon probably isn’t a viable option on FanDuel, where you can only roster one starting pitcher and Luis Severino is extremely affordable in a similar matchup, but he remains firmly in play as an SP2 on DraftKings in tournaments as a pivot away from Jeff Samardzija’s likely inflated ownership in that price range.
As reported by: FanGraphs Texas has the top implied run line by over a full run, but are facing a top prospect tonight (Reynaldo Lopez)
Reynaldo Lopez struck out six of 26 Royals in his White Sox debut, allowing two runs through six innings and may be one of few difficult decisions on the board today. The 23 year-old comes with some prospect shine (#28 in the majors by Fangraphs this year) and a 20.9 K% for the Nationals in 44 innings last year. The Rangers will strike out a bit too (23.7% vs RHP), but this is a tough park for a fly ball pitcher, the worst spot on the board. The Rangers have the top implied run line (6.06) by over a full run tonight. He hasn’t had a ground ball rate above 42% since graduating from A ball. Players will certainly want at least some exposure to this Texas lineup. Adrian Beltre (136 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP this year), Elvis Andrus (120 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP) and Joey Gallo (131 wRC+, .378 ISO vs RHP) are all top projected players tonight. The two RHBs have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week, while Gallo has a 61.5 Hard%. While RHBs have a .361 wOBA against Lopez in his career, LHBs (.300 wOBA) have all six HRs he’s surrendered with a 19.5 Hard-Soft% (RHBs -4.0 Hard-Soft%). Without much of a split in his K-BB% against either side, he’s still very much a work in progress with a small sample size.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo, Reynaldo Lopez Aaron Judge is the top projected batter on the slate, but Yankees have struggled vs GB (78 sOPS+) and LH (85 wRC+) pitchers
Steven Matz has not pitched well recently. He did allow just two runs in 5.2 innings in Philadelphia last time out, but with just one strikeout (8.1 SwStr%). The outing before, he struck out seven (6.9 SwStr%), but allowed five runs. He hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last seven starts, while his 87.6 mph aEV and 37.9% 95+ mph EV are highest on the slate. He does have some positives going for him however. One is an above average ground ball rate in each of his last four starts. The Yankees have the second lowest sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers (78) according to Baseball-Reference. He has a 17.2 K-BB% in four home starts (17.0% since last season), while the Yankees get a significant park downgrade and lose their DH. Their 85 wRC+ vs LHP (23.7 K%, 7.6 Hard-Soft%) is seventh worst in baseball. While certainly not optimal tonight, perhaps Matz could be useful in an SP2 spot on DraftKings for just $6.2K. That said, Aaron Judge (157 wRC+, .301 IS vs LHP) is the top projected batter on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections), while Gary Sanchez (125 wRC+, .271 ISO vs LHP) is top five as well. They each have a wRC+ above 150 over the last week as well. While Sanchez has just a 49 sOPS+ against ground ballers, Judge has the top mark on the team (172) and the only one in the lineup above 110. Aaron Hicks (134 wRC+, .227 ISO vs LHP) and Todd Frazier (104 wRC+, .277 ISO vs LHP, two HRs in nine PAs against Matz) have been potent against southpaws as well, though Didi Gregorius (68 wRC+, .070 ISO vs LHP) and Brett Gardner (51 wRC+, .104 ISO vs LHP) have struggled. Matz has allowed just a 21.5 Hard% with a 65.2 GB% against LHBs since last season and remained strong this year against them (27.1 Hard%, 59.6 GB%). At just 4.09 implied runs, the Yankees are on the bottom half of the board, but exposure to certain prominent RH power bats is certainly warranted.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Steven Matz, Gary Sanchez, Todd Frazier, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner White Sox appear surprisingly potent against Tyson Ross in Texas on a five game slate
The White Sox might be in the top spot tonight, facing Tyson Ross (16.7 K%, 6.4 SwStr%, 7.11 ERA, 5.85 SIERA) in Texas, but the question is whether they have the offensive firepower to take advantage of it. At 4.92 implied runs, they are the third best projected offense with Nick Delmonico, who homered twice last night and has a 193 wRC+ with a .229 ISO through 54 PAs projected as a top value on either site (RotoGrinders Player Projections), but Jose Abreu (111 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP this year) is the only top 10 overall projected batter. He also leads the team with a 194 wRC+ and 45 Hard% over the last week. In a small sample size this year, it’s actually been RHBs that have given Ross much more trouble (.412 wOBA) than LHBs (.270 wOBA). While hard hit rate is around one-third of batted balls either way, RHBs have a much lower ground ball rate (33.9%) and a negative K-BB rate (-2.2%). That suits a lineup with most of it’s power coming from the right-hand side just fine, though Leury Garcia (119 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP) and Yoan Moncada (124 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP) should certainly be considered as part of any stack, along with Delmonico in the cleanup spot. In fact, despite the team’s 87 wRC+ vs RHP, all of the first five batters in the lineup are above a 100 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP. Considering the advantageous spot and affordable cost, players should expect the White Sox to be very popular tonight in conjunction with arms like Nola and Severino.
Other tagged players: Nicky Delmonico, Leury Garcia, Yoan Moncada, Tyson Ross Luis Severino leads Thursday's main slate in SIERA, K%, and SwStr% by significant margins over Aaron Nola
Despite a significant hiccup his last time out, Luis Severino continues to chug along in what looks to be a breakout season for this once highly-touted youngster. Before that aforementioned start where he surrendered eight earned runs to the Boston Red Sox in just 4.1 innings pitched, Severino had allowed no more than one earned run in any of his previous five outings, so he will certainly be aiming to get back on track in a matchup with the New York Mets this evening. This Mets team is unarguably an above-average, but not great, offense against right-handed pitching, ranking 10th in wRC+ (100), 13th in wOBA (.323), and 5th in ISO (.193) while striking out just 19.8% of the time, good for a tie for sixth-best in the Majors. However, there may actually be more noise to these numbers than actual news considering the Mets just recently traded away one of their biggest power threats from the left-side in Jay Bruce and will also be without the injured Wilmer Flores and Jose Reyes tonight, both of whom have been key cogs in their lineup all season. The primary reason to feel good about Severino on Thursday night is the elite skills he brings to the mound, a 28.1% strikeout rate and 50.9% groundball rate in addition to below-average hard contact (29.5%) is normally a winning combination for a starting pitcher, no matter the matchup. Essentially this means that Severino would win out in a head-to-head battle with Aaron Nola, the other stud starting pitching option available on Thursday’s slate, in cash games and tournaments as he possesses a much higher upside with his ability to strike out batters from both sides of the plate at a nearly equate rate (28.8% K% vs RHB and 27.3% K% vs LHB), whereas Nola has a severe split in his strikeout numbers to righties and lefties. So while Severino’s matchup is less “safe” on paper, the difference isn’t drastic enough to pay down for Nola in what projects to be a limited upside spot against the San Francisco Giants where Severino should be expected to outscore him more often than not should this slate be simulated 1,000 times.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Aaron Nola Ryan Hanigan scratched; Jonathan Lucroy will now catch and bat 5th
Hanigan has been scratched due to a stomach illness, so it’s doubtful he’s forced to miss any time beyond today. Thursday will mark Lucroy’s fourth straight start behind the dish, so if Hanigan is up to it tomorrow, he may be back in the lineup.
As reported by: @Rockies Other tagged players: Jonathan Lucroy Start of Wednesday's CLE-MIN game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as ORANGE in his updated weather forecast due to the chances of an in-game rain delay and possible postponement. However, Kevin now expects the delay to be a lengthy one, that is if the teams decide to resume play at all tonight. So, clearly, both starting pitchers and hitters are extremely risky in this contest with a postponement looking more and more likely and cannot be officially recommended. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page for more information. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: Nick Camino Yu Darvish currently projected to be in a large portion of lineups tonight
Charlie Blackmon is the only hitter currently projected above 15% ownership on both sites, though Austin Barnes is actually projected to be even more popular on FanDuel for just $2.2K, likely so players can afford Blackmon and/or Yu Darvish. With three teams (Rockies, Rangers, Cubs) all projected above 5.9 runs, that should help spread out ownership well enough that there shouldn’t be an over-whelming chalk fading concerns. Rafael Devers (175 wRC+, .347 ISO vs RHP) could be really interesting as a contrarian play at third base. The Red Sox also have an implied run line above five and LHBs have a .342 wOBA against Lance Lynn this year (.341 wOBA career). Devers is projected to be in only around five percent of lineups on either site in the middle of that order. Yu Darvish is projected to double up on all other pitchers popularity-wise on DraftKings and potentially even quadruple everyone else on FanDuel. Carlos Carrasco, the second best projected pitcher tonight in points of point total (RotoGrinders Player Projections) has some serious weather concerns. Charlie Morton costs more than $5K less than Darvish on DraftKings and is expected to be the next most popular pitcher on that site. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Carlos Carrasco, Charlie Morton, Rafael Devers, Charlie Blackmon Jose Reyes scratched Wednesday
Wilmer Flores has also been scratched from Wednesday’s lineup – he was removed from the lineup roughly an hour ago – which will now leave the Mets extremely thin at the hot corner. Typical catcher Travis d’Arnaud will get his first career start at 3B, while Rene Rivera will now slide into the lineup at catcher (batting 8th). Interestingly enough, both Flores and Reyes are dealing with strained left rib cage muscles. This news certainly doesn’t help the defense behind Robert Gsellman, and does nothing to deter attention away from the Yankees as a potential GPP difference making stack.
As reported by: James Wagner