DFS Alerts
The Houston Astros (5.44) now have the second highest run line on the slate against Cole Hamels
The Houston Astros have vaulted up the board since early this afternoon and now have the second highest projected run line at 5.44 (+.30). They are the only offense to increase their run total by more than a quarter of a run, while several have dropped more than that over the same time span. The Yankees (5.14 to 4.74), Royals (5.05 to 4.77) and Rockies (4.61 to 4.33) are the biggest droppers. In the case of the Astros, they’re facing a previously dominant pitcher, who has struggled this season (Cole Hamels) in a hot park in Texas where the ball is expected to travel. Washington now separates themselves from the Astros by 0.37 runs, but may have to deal with some weather issues tonight. Players can see run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
Neil Walker, Alex Avila, Austin Barnes expected to be popular as players hunt for bargains
Current projected ownership rates see players hunting for bargains with guys like Neil Walker ($2.4K) and Alex Avila ($2.3K) potentially being most popular on FanDuel and Walker ($2.7K) along with Austin Barnes ($3.3K) on DraftKings. That’s because players are also expected to flock to high priced pitching like Rich HIll ($9.3K) on FanDuel, but shun the extremely costly pitchers in favor of Carlos Carrasco ($9.7K) and Jimmy Nelson ($9.9K) on DraftKings. It’s possible to fit both of those pitchers into the same lineup with some of the cheaper bats mentioned. While players may be concerned with Charlie Morton’s matchup in Texas, as he’s currently perceived to be in fewer than 5% of lineups on FanDuel, a -20.2 Hard-Soft% over his last since returning from the DL in July, could brighten his outlook. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Austin Barnes, Alex Avila, Carlos Carrasco, Charlie Morton, Jimmy Nelson, Rich Hill Some concern for San Francisco @ Washington in Kevin's evening update
There is some concern for the San Francisco Washington game in Kevin's evening forecast. Considering Chris Stratton is facing Edwin Jackson in a game that's featuring Pablo Sandoval hitting cleanup for a major league team in 2017, the concern would appear to be solely for Washington bats. With an ORANGE grade, a PPD is one potential outcome. Kevin also mentions that the same storms could cause some late game issues for the New York (NL) Philadelphia game, but a significant impact is not expected during likely game time hours. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Jimmy Nelson owns a 32.0% K% versus LHB, faces five Reds lefties Friday night
Jimmy Nelson has been a model of consistency this season, something the young right-hander couldn’t have been further from claiming in years past and is currently in the midst of a stretch allowing two earned runs or less while recording at least seven strikeouts in four of his last five outings. That kind of consistency has forced his price tag to rise across the industry, up to $9.9K on DraftKings and $9.4K on FanDuel, and could be high enough to make some daily fantasy players weary of deploying Nelson in their lineups with more household names like Carlos Carrasco residing in his pricing tier. This notion couldn’t be any more off base, however, as Nelson has exhibited some elite all-around skills this season, evidenced by a 27.3% strikeout rate, 50.9% groundball rate, and 3.32 SIERA to hitters from both sides of the plate. Further adding to his upside appeal, Nelson will receive the benefit of facing off with a Cincinnati Reds lineups that will roll out five left-handed batters this evening, and while this may not normally be plus for a right-handed pitcher, it is for Nelson and his massive 32.0% strikeout rate to lefties on the year. With that said, the strikeout prowess against lefties doesn’t come without some added risk, as Nelson sacrifices a lot of his control and contact management skills to left-handed batters while seeing a decrease in ground balls (44.6% GB%), an increase in hard contact (38.5% HH%), and an increase in free passes issued (7.8% BB%). Additionally, the matchup with a Cincinnati squad that ranks 12th or better in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO against right-handed pitching does very little to alleviate those aforementioned concerns about Nelson’s skills against lefties. Making the safety aspect of this matchup even worse is the fact that the Reds are a relatively difficult team to strike out, ranking in the top half of the league in strikeout rate against righties (20.7% K%). This and the previously noted contact and control issues do firmly demote Nelson to a tournament option only on Friday’s slate given the clearly higher floor and ceiling combination that Carrasco possesses on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
As reported by: FanGraphs
RHBs have a .412 wOBA, 44.7 Hard% vs Nick Pivetta; Mets have a 30.7 K% last seven days
On the one hand, Nick Pivetta has a 23.1 K% with his three worst starts coming in Colorado, Milwaukee and Arizona, while costing just less than $6.5K against a Mets offense with a 30.7 K%. RHBs have a .412 wOBA, 41.2 GB% and 44.7 Hard% against him, but the Mets don’t have a lot of RH power and are tied for last in baseball with a 79 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers and one of their three above average bats in that regard was just traded away this week. On the other hand, he has a .412 wOBA, 41.2 GB% and 44.7 Hard% against RHBs and will have Yoenis Cespedes with a 46.7 Hard% over the last week staring him down in a bandbox,while his 8.3 SwStr% and dropping struggles to support his strikeout rate. Go get some Yoenis Cespedes exposure at a reasonable price and while you’re at it, maybe think about Wilmer Flores at even better price. Flores has a 240 wRC+ and 60 Hard% over the last week, while greatly improving his performance against RHP this year (114 wRC+, .199 ISO). Michael Conforto has a 167 wRC+ and .293 ISO vs RHP this year. While Pivetta has been handling contact better against LHBs (.290 wOBA, 31.2 Hard%), only 39.4% of it has been on the ground. On the other hand (if there’s a genetic mutation that has blessed you with three), the Mets have a 30.7 K% over the last week. The main takeaway for players here is that there may be daily fantasy success to be had on either side of this matchup. Low priced pitchers (and even some high priced ones) can be successful with enough strikeouts even if a few balls leave the yard.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores, Michael Conforto, Nick Pivetta Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are top projected bats against rookie pitchers
No team has more than one batter in the top 10 among the RotoGrinders Player Projections on both sites tonight, although the Diamondbacks barely sneak in two (Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb vs John Lackey) on FanDuel. The top five are the same on either site. Bryce Harper (183 wRC+, .351 ISO vs RHP this year) faces Chris Stratton. Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP) faces Marco Gonzales. Neither of those pitchers have much of a track record and are facing potential MVP candidates this season. Aaron Judge (174 wRC+, .329 ISO vs LHP) has a platoon advantage he really doesn’t need against Eduardo Rodriguez and is beginning to pick it up again after a rough start to his second half (119 wRC+, 33.3 Hard% last seven days). Anthony Rizzo (123 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP) enjoys the confines of Chase Field in Arizona (Taijuan Walker). Charlie Blackmon (143 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP) is the only real Colorado threat on the road. LHBs have a .326 wOBA, 32.6 Hard% vs Jose Urena since last year. Top projected values for those projected for at least seven DraftKings points are Chris Davis (2.65 Pt/$/K) against Paul Blackburn and Logan Forsythe (2.35 Pt/$/K) against Clayton Richard. The projections like Forsythe’s teammate, Kike Hernandez (4.09 Pt/$/K) and Eric Thames (4.06 Pt/$/K) against Homer Bailey.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Charlie Blackmon, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Chris Davis, Logan Forsythe, Enrique Hernandez Marcus Stroman and Charlie Morton have significantly improved contact authority in recent starts
Charlie Morton is in the midst of his best major league season with a 25.6 K% and still getting a good amount of ground balls (51.6%). There has been an interesting development since he returned from a month plus long stay on the disabled list though. His velocity dropped a mile per hour, but he was still throwing above 94 mph and his strikeout rate did not suffer at all, while his contact rates have been extraordinary. He has a -20.2 Hard-Soft% over his last six starts and has not allowed a hard hit rate above 20% in any of those games. That will surely be tested in the Texas heat tonight, but the Rangers strike out 23.9% of the time vs RHP. Marcus Stroman has always been an elite ground ball generator (62.1% leads all qualified pitchers by a full four points this year). His ability to strike out batters at a league average rate makes him a useful daily fantasy pitcher, although he’s always struggled to contain contact authority better than league average, which has generally run his BABIP above .300. Something that few people have probably recognized is that he’s sitting on a 65.6 GB% with just a 2.0 Hard-Soft% over his last eight starts. The reason it’s flying under the radar is an unsubstantiated .325 BABIP over this span despite an 18.5 LD% and 12.5 IFFB% as well. While his $10.9K price tag may be a bit aggressive considering surface numbers, his recent contact management spike may warrant it and the Pirates do not have enough hard hitters to change that outlook. For more on some pitchers and hitters associated with hard contact, check out today’s Trendspotting article.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Trendspotting Other tagged players: Marcus Stroman Carlos Carrasco and Rich Hill are facing offenses that strike out a quarter of the time tonight
Carlos Carrasco and Rich Hill are likely the class of a deep pitching slate, but not one with a lot of high end starters. They are one and two in the Daily K Predictor today (7.34 & 7.29) with no other pitcher projected above seven. Jimmy Nelson pulls ahead of them in the RotoGrinders Player Projections, though his 31.5 K% over the last month is barely supported by an 11.5 SwStr% that has not increased from his season rate. The enthusiasm for Carrasco and Hill is very much matchup motivated. Both are facing offense (Rays & Padres) that strike out a quarter of the time. Both come with some issues, Carrasco with inconsistencies and a 9% Barrels/BBE, though a 20 K-BB% overall and Hill with workload limitations that have kept him from more than 95 pitches in five of his last six starts. Nelson has a 36.6 K% vs LHBs since mid-May, but a 38.1 Hard%. While they’ve continued to make hard contact on a high percentage of batted balls, he has increased his ground ball rate against them to 60.9% over his last six starts. RHBs pound the ball into the ground (54.7 GB%, -3.7 Hard-Soft%) since mid-May. The Reds have a 6.1 K-BB% and 20.9 HR/FB over the last week. Hill is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings with a $12.2K price tag he’s likely going to need seven innings to cover. He can get there in 90 to 95 pitches against this San Diego offense. Nelson covers him by $100 on FanDuel for the top price tag, making Carrasco perhaps the top value at a lower cost on either site. There are surely several other viable pitching options on today’s board as well, too many to cover in one small space.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Rich Hill, Jimmy Nelson Joey Votto is the hottest hitter in the league (337 wRC+, 58.8 Hard%, four HRs last seven days)
Joey Votto is the hottest hitter in the league (337 wRC+, 58.8 Hard%, four HRs). His matchup against Jimmy Nelson probably deserves it’s own post. He’s gone on a strikeout rampage against LHBs (36.6 K%) since mid-May, though they’ve still hit him hard when they do make contact (38.1 Hard%). While all of that has remained true, LHBs now have a 60.9 GB% against him over his last six starts as well. What does this mean for Votto? They’ve faced each other 29 times and while Baseball Savant is not up to date on those, they do have a 93.9 mph aEV on 13 BBEs. Votto did not have an extra-base hit against him until the last time he faced him (June 29th), when he homered twice, two starts before Nelson went on his ground ball rampage against LHBs. Votto has a 171 wRC+ and .288 ISO vs RHP this year. Adrian Sanchez (315 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, no HRs) & Dexter Fowler (304 wRC+, 50 Hard%, one HR) are the other two batters above a 300 wRC+ over the last week, though without much power. Sanchez is cheap in a good spot against Chris Stratton though, and Fowler is back up in the St Louis order, facing a pitcher (Mike Foltynewicz), who struggles against LHBs (.359 wOBA, 8.4 Soft% this season). Nelson Cruz (296 wRC+, 40 Hard%, five HRs) has three career HRs (23 PAs) against Ricky Nolasco. Chris Young (291 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) only has 10 PAs over the last week, but has made the most of them and it will probably keep him in the lineup against a lefty tonight, despite a 79 wRC+ and .100 ISO against them this year. Giancarlo Stanton (246 wRC+, 52.6 Hard%, six HRs) leads the majors in homers over the last week and is really the only hot bat on on offense facing Jon Gray. RHBs have just a 25.6 Hard% against him since last season.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Adrian Sanchez, Dexter Fowler, Nelson Cruz, Chris Young Barnes (.276 ISO vs LHP) and Hernandez (.360 ISO vs LHP) nearly mandatory value plays vs LHP
The Nationals (5.66) and Tigers (5.51) are the top projected Vegas offenses on a full slate with 13 additional teams between 4.8 and 5.3 runs on a board without a lot of high end pitching, but an excess amount of depth. There are some incredibly interesting one off decisions on the slate, but Dodgers RHBs could be the most interesting stack tonight. They’re currently implied for 5.2 runs (fourth) against Clayton Richard, who has increased both his SwStr rate (above 8.5% in five straight starts) and ground ball rate against RHBs (64.2% over this span), though they’re still hitting him fairly hard (25.6 Hard-Soft%) over this stretch. The Dodgers are also the fourth best offense vs ground ball pitching (119 sOPS+ via Baseball-Reference) with Justin Turner, Austin Barnes and Kike Hernandez all above a 140 sOPS+ against them. Barnes (139 wRC+, .276 ISO vs LHP this year) and Hernandez (151 wRC+, .360 ISO vs LHP) are nearly mandatory plays against LHP, since they can pave the way to high priced pitching and bigger bats. Logan Forsythe (158 wRC+, .165 ISO) could be the same on DraftKings ($3.4K). Turner (225 wRC+, .360 ISO vs LHP) and Chris Taylor (145 wRC+, .220 ISO vs LHP) are your top plays. Taylor is one to cautious of though, as he’s running a .418 BABIP and 28.2 Hard% vs LHP. While Forsythe and Cory Seager are running a .400+ BABIP vs LHP as well this year, they at least do so with well above average hard hit rates.
Other tagged players: Enrique Hernandez, Logan Forsythe, Clayton Richard, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Corey Seager Kendrys Morales scratched Thursday
Jose Bautista will take over the DH role while Ezequiel Carrera will man LF. This is a slight uptick for Sonny Gray, but Morales actually doesn’t hit RHP all that well (86 wRC+) so it doesn’t change a whole lot in regards to either Gray or the Blue Jays offense.
As reported by: @BlueJays
St Louis Cardinals up 0.31 runs since early afternoon
While the top four implied run lines are still separated by less than one-tenth of a run tonight (5.22 to 5.3), it’s the St Louis Cardinals that have made a big jump since this afternoon to move in behind them at 4.94 runs, up from 4.63 runs early this afternoon. The Royals have made a slightly smaller corresponding move from 3.87 to 4.06, meaning bettors more likely see the Cardinals as being responsible for the rise in total overall runs. Jason Hammel has pitched better of late, but LHBs still have a 33 Hard% (.320 wOBA) against him since last season. Both Matt Carpenter (134 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP this year) and Dexter Fowler (120 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP this year) have a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week (wRC+ above 180). There have been no other significant movers on the slate since this afternoon. Players can find run lines and movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Jason Hammel Gary Sanchez expected to be most popular batter tonight
Gary Sanchez is the only player currently projected to be in more than 20% of lineups on either site tonight. Milwaukee appears to have the potential to be the most popular stack, in a virtual tie for the top run line with Houston, but cheaper and with less weather risk. The Brewers are also facing a debuting, non-prospect 26 year-old lefty, while Carlos Rodon struggles to throw strikes to RHBs, but certainly has some upside against the Astros. High priced pitching plays a part in those decisions too and there’s plenty of it tonight, giving no pitcher an expected monopoly on ownership with James Paxton and Jacob deGrom potentially being most popular. It’s tough to argue with Danny Salazar in a high upside spot in Tampa Bay either. He’s struck out 28 of 71 batters since returning from the DL and could fly a bit under the radar with Paxton and deGrom in perhaps stronger overall matchups with the Angels and Phillies. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: Projected Ownership Other tagged players: James Paxton, Jacob deGrom, Danny Salazar Wade Miley surrenders 1.64 HR/9 to RHB, in addition to a healthy .376 wOBA
After a hot start to the 2017 campaign, Wade Miley has come back down to earth quickly over the last few months, allowing at least four runs in 10 of his last 13 starts and pitching into the sixth inning on just three occasions. Tonight, Miley is set to face off with an Oakland Athletics squad that has the ability, even a preference, to get extremely right-handed in the right matchups, evidenced by being no left-handed batters in the Oakland lineup this evening. Miley’s strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 18.7%, a substantial decrease from his early season totals, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.2% over that same time period. Miley’s 48.8% groundball rate against righties is slightly above-average but is still not enough to deter us from Athletics hitters considering he is also allowing a 24.3% line drive rate and surrendering hard contact 34.2% of the time. Furthermore, the Athletics remain likely to be one of the most overlooked offenses on Thursday’s slate and present some significant one off power options throughout their order. Considering the reduced ownership the Oakland bats are expected to demand, it certainly wouldn’t be a horrible idea to try to get creative with Oakland stacks, especially in large field tournaments given their overall strong power numbers against left-handed pitching. Based solely on statistics, Ryon Healy (190 wRC+, .448 wOBA, .315 ISO vs LHP), Khris Davis (.198 ISO vs LHP), Matt Chapman (.200 ISO vs LHP), and Marcus Semien (.216 ISO vs LHP since 2016) all stand out as the premier plays from this Athletics lineup, though Chapman’s spot in the batting order should preferably reserve him to tournament exposure only. Falling into a tier below the aforementioned hitters would be Rajai Davis (108 wRC+, .328 wOBA vs LHP), who remains in play due to his leadoff spot in the order despite lacking substantial individual power upside.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Rajai Davis, Wade Miley Houston @ Chicago (AL) an area of concern in Kevin's evening forecast
The main area of concern in tonight’s forecast is in Chicago where Kevin has the game between the Astros and White Sox graded ORANGE/YELLOW. While there are some high upside pitchers in this game, there are plenty of high upside arms on the board, making Brad Peacock and Carlos Rodon easy enough to move off of. Where it becomes a concern is that Houston also has the top run line on the slate (5.3 runs) and hitter’s aren’t necessarily safe in this spot either. While the absence of RED makes this game more likely to play than not, there is one model that gives us the potential for a PPD, Kevin explains. Read his full report on the Weather page and further updates will be available in premium chat.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Premium Weather Chat Other tagged players: Carlos Rodon