DFS Alerts
Jose Quintana tops Daily K Predictor, Alex Wood leads RotoGrinders Player Projections
The Daily K Predictor has Jose Quintana with a board leading 8.42 strikeouts tonight, ahead of Masahiro Tanaka (7.32) and Danny Salazar (6.41), while the RotoGrinders Player Projections like Alex Wood and Dallas Keuchel to top tonight’s daily fantasy point totals. These are all All-Star quality names, but with many red flags to go around. Quintana struck out 12 Orioles on a 20 SwStr% in his first start for the Cubs and then another seven, but with just a 5.1 SwStr%. He has a career high 26.1 K% this year with an 8.8 SwStr% just slightly above his 8.5% career SwStr rate. He’s in a high power, high strikeout spot in Milwaukee tonight (Brewers 19.4 HR/FB at home, 26 K% at home and vs LHP). Tanaka has an elite SwStr rate (14.6% and 15.9% over the last 30 days), but also has significant HR issues (23.0 HR/FB). He’s in a similar high power, high strikeout spot to Quintana against the Rays at home (18.0 HR/FB vs RHP, 25 K% on the road and vs RHP). Danny Salazar is returned from the DL to throw seven one-hit innings without a walk and eight strikeouts. He’s has control and contact issues throughout his career along with the tremendous upside. At just $8.2K on FanDuel though, he may be the top play on the board against a White Sox lineup (89 wRC+ at home, 87 wRC+ vs RHP) down Frazier and A.Garcia now. Alex Wood is coming off a disastrous start in which he struck out just four with four walks and allowed a grand slam to the pitcher. It’s really his first disastrous start since moving into the rotation, though he still had a 42.1 Soft% in that game. While nobody wants to over-react to one bad start by a pitcher 21.6 K-BB%, 61.9 GB% and 83.9 mph aEV, his velocity has been trending downward over the last month and perhaps that’s why the Dodgers elected to give him an extra couple of days. It’s more of a caution flag than a red one. Dallas Keuchel has not pitched in the majors in nearly two months and made just two rehab starts, the most recent in which he faced just 19 low A batters. Facing an offense with a 123 wRC+ vs LHP with a potential workload limitation for more than $10K is a dangerous proposition. Not mentioned yet is the highest strikeout rate on the board among qualifiers, Robbie Ray (30.7 K%). He has five walks and just eight strikeouts over his last two starts (45 batters), which is actually an improvement over the four or more batters he’d walked in each of his previous five starts. He’s also allowed eight HRs over his last six starts with a 43.3% 95+ mph EV that’s highest on the board. It’s still difficult to ignore a 30% strikeout rate for less than $10K on this board against a team with 88 wRC+ vs LHP. On the other side of that matchup, Michael Wacha has the higher strikeout rate over the last month (31.1%).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka, Danny Salazar, Alex Wood, Dallas Keuchel, Robbie Ray, Michael Wacha
Rockies-Nats postponed Friday due to weather
A split double-header will be played Sunday as a result. Do not select any players from this game in your contests tonight!
As reported by: Chelsea Janes
Several Tampa Bay Rays have a high average exit velocity against Masahiro Tanaka
There are a lot of batters with a lot of history against the pitchers they are facing tonight with four of them having three HRs in tonight’s BvP matchups according to Baseball Savant. In the Statcast era (since 2015), Edwin Encarnacion (25 PAs vs Derek Holland) has the highest aEV (100.6 mph on seven BBEs). Brad Miller has a 90.9 mph aEV on 18 BBEs against Masahiro Tanaka. Miller’s power is down this season (.110 ISO vs RHP), but Tanaka has been supplying a lot of it on his own (23 HR/FB). Starling Marte has a 98.2 mph aEV on four BBEs against Travis Wood, who returns to the National League. His three HRs have come in 31 PAs with a double and a triple as well. Jose Abreu has taken Danny Salazar deep three times in 24 PAs as well with a 91.6 mph aEV on 12 BBEs. Among those with at least 10 BBEs recorded by Statcast (and there are many today), a pair of Rays have the only aEVs above 92 mph. Corey Dickerson (95.1 mph aEV) and Evan Longoria (91 mph aEV, two HRs) have hit Masahiro Tanaka hard as well.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Starling Marte, Masahiro Tanaka, Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria Several Tampa Bay Rays have a high average exit velocity against Masahiro Tanaka
There are a lot of batters with a lot of history against the pitchers they are facing tonight with four of them having three HRs in tonight’s BvP matchups according to Baseball Savant. In the Statcast era (since 2015), Edwin Encarnacion (25 PAs vs Derek Holland) has the highest aEV (100.6 mph on seven BBEs). Brad Miller has a 90.9 mph aEV on 18 BBEs against Masahiro Tanaka. Miller’s power is down this season (.110 ISO vs RHP), but Tanaka has been supplying a lot of it on his own (23 HR/FB). Starling Marte has a 98.2 mph aEV on four BBEs against Travis Wood, who returns to the National League. His three HRs have come in 31 PAs with a double and a triple as well. Jose Abreu has taken Danny Salazar deep three times in 24 PAs as well with a 91.6 mph aEV on 12 BBEs. Among those with at least 10 BBEs recorded by Statcast (and there are many today), a pair of Rays have the only aEVs above 92 mph. Corey Dickerson (95.1 mph aEV) and Logan Morrison (98.5 mph aEV) have both hit Masahiro Tanaka hard, but with a combined 12 Ks in 37 PAs as well. Evan Longoria also has a 91 mph aEV with two HRs in 25 PAs against Tanaka.
Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Evan Longoria, Masahiro Tanaka, Jose Abreu, Danny Salazar, Edwin Encarnacion, Derek Holland, Starling Marte Jose Altuve brings a 287 wRC+ over the last week against Jordan Zimmermann (RHBs .365 wOBA since 2016)
With just two part time players (Cameron Rupp 308 & Matt Szczur 306) above a 300 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.) players may need to lower their expectations for the league’s hottest bats, although Rupp has three HRs over the last seven days as well. Jose Altuve (287 wRC+, 31.8 Hard%, one HR) could have a big night against Jordan Zimmermann (RHBs .365 wOBA since last season) and has to be considered one of the top batters on the slate. Manuel Margot (287 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) is coming off a strong home stand, but actually transitions to a park that’s much harder on RH power in Pittsburgh against a pitcher who has stifled RHBs this year (299 wOBA vs Chad Kuhl since last season). Luis Valbuena (282 wRC+, 70 Hard%, three HRs) is unlikely to see opportunities against J.A. Happ. James McCann (280 wRC+, 50 Hard%, 0 HRs) only has 12 PAs over the last week, but now has a 146 wRC+ with a .308 ISO and 46.1 Hard% against LHP since last season. While he faces Dallas Keuchel tonight (RHBs .308 wOBA since last season), he hasn’t seen major league action in nearly two months and may not be up to his normal standards. Austin Jackson (274 wRC+, 28.6 Hard%, 0 HRs) hasn’t hit the ball particularly hard and has only the requisite 10 PAs, but he’s in a great spot (RHBs .494 wOBA vs Derek Holland since the start of June) and has pummeled LHP this year (168 wRC+, .250 ISO, 34.7 Hard%).
Other tagged players: Cameron Rupp, Matthew Szczur, Manuel Margot, James McCann, Luis Valbuena, Austin Jackson RHBs have a .494 wOBA against Derek Holland since the start of June
Under conditions where it may barely be considered humane to play baseball in, the Texas Rangers have the top implied run line tonight at 6.15 runs when the host the Orioles. While Chris Tillman pitched six innings of one run ball against them two starts back, he walked four with just three strikeouts and is going to be contending with 100 degree temperatures tonight. The same conditions apply to a Baltimore offense facing a contact managing Andrew Cashner (3.6% Barrels/BBE), who has just a 1.5 K-BB%. Though the Orioles don’t have many LHBs, players should rightfully continue to attack with the likes of Seth Smith (249 wRC+ last seven days) and Chris Davis (55.6 Hard% last seven days) against Cashner’s 32.4 Hard% 37 GB%, and 0.0 K-BB% vs LHBs this year. The Orioles (5.35) are one of eight teams projected between five and six runs tonight, the most interesting of which has to be the Indians (5.9). Over the last two months, RHBs have a .494 wOBA with 13 HRs and a 40.6 Hard% against him. Edwin Encarnacion has a 229 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week and has three career HRs with a 100.6 mph aEV (seven BBEs) in 25 PAs against Holland. Considering the punishment being inflicted, any Cleveland batter who attempts to come to the plate right-handed should be played tonight (and perhaps they all should). This includes switch hitters like Francisco Lindor (136 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP this year) and Jose Ramirez (123 wRC+, .194 ISO vs LHP this year), but players can also save salary with Austin Jackson (168 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP this year) and Yan Gomes (136 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP this year). Just remember that players using Danny Salazar are only allowed three additional Cleveland bats on FanDuel unfortunately.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Austin Jackson, Yan Gomes, Danny Salazar, Andrew Cashner, Seth Smith, Chris Davis, Chris Tillman David Price scratched Friday; Rick Porcello will start vs. the Royals
Porcello will now toe the rubber for Boston, which bodes especially well for the Royals left-handed bats who were set to face off in a L-L match-up with one of the league’s better southpaws. KC still doesn’t come in as one of the more appealing team stacks of the day, and Porcello himself isn’t a viable option either.
As reported by: Evan Drellich Other tagged players: David Price
Start of Thursday's ARI-STL game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of today’s game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW/ORANGE in his updated weather forecast update due to a line of storms that were expected to arrive near the first pitch. The pregame delay is a major boost to the outlook of starting pitchers in this contest since an in-game delay always provides an added risk to starters being pulled early upon play resuming. Kevin still expects the game in St. Louis to play through but it’s important to keep in mind that starting pitchers are never entirely “safe” when pop-up storms can cause sporadic delays.
As reported by: Nick Piecoro
Luis Perdermo has a 65.3 GB% this year, but just a 13.3 K% last 30 days
Luis Perdomo has the top ground ball rate among pitchers with at least 90 innings (65.3%), but has been missing very few bats over the last month (13.3 K%, 7.1 SwStr%). While he still has a 59.9 GB% against LHBs this year, they still have a .379 wOBA due to just a 2.2 K-BB% and 34.1 Hard%. RHBs not named Cespedes (145 wRC+, 42.9 Hard% last seven days) are off limits (70.2 GB%, 23.1 K%). Michael Conforto is the most useful New York bat. He has a 164 wRC+ and .306 ISO vs RHP this year and a 218 wRC+ over the last week. With an implied run line just third from the bottom (4.44) and lots of ground balls expected, there’s not a lot of allure on either side of this matchup.
Other tagged players: Luis Perdomo, Yoenis Cespedes A couple of games with minor delay possibilities in Kevin's evening update
Tampa Bay New York (AL) and Arizona St Louis are the only two games Kevin cites as a delay risk, grading both contests YELLOW. Chris Archer, Zack Godley and even Luke Weaver are all pitchers of interest in these two affairs. The good news is risk seems especially low in the St Louis with a late start being the most likely impact with Kevin’s estimates of a delay less than 50% in New York. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Chris Flexen makes his debut in San Diego after a 24.0 K-BB% in seven AA starts
Chris Flexen was just an “other of note” among Mets prospects via Fangraphs this pre-season, but Baseball America has him 10th in the organization in their mid-season update after the 23 year-old has dominated in his first taste of AA. The Mets don’t normally aggressively promote guys like this, so even if it’s just a spot start, something must have caught their eye and maybe that’s a 24.0 K-BB% in seven starts since being promoted from high A ball with a fastball that sits low to mid-90s. He has all the secondaries (slider, curve, change) with a slider that has improved by bounds this year (according to a local publication). He debuts in one of the top spots on the board in San Diego (86 wRC+, 25.5 K%, 7.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) at a reasonable price. Considering that his cost is $500 less on FanDuel and he has been going deep into recent starts (at least six innings in all seven AA starts and at least seven in five), he doesn’t have to be just an SP2 paired with a higher cost arm. Cheap Padre bats are usable if not considering Flexen though. Manuel Margot has a 225 wRC+ and 42.9 Hard% over the last week. Wil Myers and Hunter Renfroe both exceed a .200 ISO vs RHP this year and Carlos Asuaje leads the lineup with a 136 wRC+ against RHP this year.
As reported by: AmazinAvenue Other tagged players: Manuel Margot, Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Carlos Asuaje Mike Pelfrey owns a horrendous 6.53 xFIP and -0.6% K-BB% versus LHB
Mike Pelfrey continues to be just a mediocre-at-best starting pitcher at this point in his career and is essentially just an innings-eater for a Chicago White Sox rotation that is waiting on some younger arms to develop at the minor league level. He seems to just do well enough against right-handed batters on a consistent basis to tight rope his way through outings from start to start. The most common mistake in attacking Pelfrey with opposing hitters is to just blindly stack against him, but he has allowed just a .282 wOBA to righties this season, backed up by an elite 58.3% groundball rate and 25.0% hard hit rate despite the lowly 14.3% strikeout rate, the only real negative aspect of his pitching profile to righties. On the other hand, Pelfrey has been abysmal against left-handed batters with a similar 16.1% strikeout rate but induces ground balls at just a below-average 39.7% clip and surrenders a 33.3% hard hit rate. This makes Anthony Rizzo (119 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .224 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Schwarber (.248 ISO vs RHP) the premier options from this Chicago Cubs lineup to take advantage of Pelfrey’s .368 wOBA and 2.02 HR/9 allowed to lefties, while Jon Jay (111 wRC+, .346 wOBA), Ben Zobrist, and Jason Heyward each possess enough of a skillset at the plate against right-handed pitching to contribute solid games as part of a Cubs lefties stack in tournaments as well.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber, Jon Jay, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Mike Pelfrey Robert Stephenson has struggled at the major league level, but a 19.9 K-BB% at AAA this year
The Marlins scored more runs last night in Texas than some teams do in a week, but conditions are not likely to be as hitter friendly back at home tonight. Robert Stephenson is a bit of a wild card. He has a 19.9 K-BB% in 40 AAA innings this season, but just a 9.6 K-BB% in 30 major league innings (mostly in relief) to go along with his 7.1 K-BB% in 37 innings last year. He struck out five of 25 Marlins in his first major league start of the season last week, but allowed two HRs in a power friendly park in Cincinnati. His major league hard hit rate now stands at 40.6%. His 89.9 mph aEV and 42.7% 95+ mph EV this year are worst on the slate. While Christian Yelich has declined (113 wRC+, .144 ISO vs RHP) due to just a 25.9% fly ball rate, Giancarlo Stanton (140 wRC+, .304 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (144 wRC+, .274 ISO) are both smoking RHP this year and Yelich does have a 257 wRC+ with a 57.1 Hard% over the last week. J.T. Realmuto is another red hot bat with a 274 wRC+ and 47.1 Hard% over the last week. The Marlins have the second highest run projection on the board (5.06) behind the Cubs tonight, so players will probably want some exposure to their big bats, but Stephenson does have talent.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto, Christian Yelich, Robert Stephenson Despite difficult spot, Chris Archer still possesses the highest upside among SP on Thursday's slate
Chris Archer is set to take the mound against the New York Yankees on the road tonight coming off of a great performance against the Texas Rangers his last time out, allowing just one earned run in seven innings pitched while striking out a whopping four batters. Thankfully, Archer has really turned it around after a shaky start to the year, especially in the strikeout department, notching eight or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 15 starts, flashing that elite upside that we have all come to know and love from the Rays ace. Effectively, the current season advanced statistics for Archer have rebounded nicely following his middling start to the 2017 campaign, evidenced by a 3.50 SIERA, 29.3% strikeout rate, and a 7.7% walk rate, that is essentially in line with his career numbers. One potential trouble spot is the small dip in his groundball rate (41.4% GB%) from a career 45.9% rate that is correlated with a career-high 38.0% hard hit rate, though a 21-start sample size is still arguably too small to place too much stock in the hard contact issues but are still concerning nonetheless. Even in a difficult matchup with a Yankees squad that ranks 2nd in wRC+ (116), 2nd in wOBA (.345), and 9th in ISO (.189) against right-handed pitching overall, it’s easy to see why Archer still possesses one of the highest ceilings among starting pitchers on Thursday’s slate, especially when factoring in New York’s exploitable 22.2% strikeout rate to righties. If weighting splits, another small drawback with this spot is that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 33.5% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to a 24.9% strikeout rate on the road, making an Archer fade more than viable if he projects to be one of the higher owned starting pitchers on the slate. However, it’s important to keep in mind that Archer still has the ability to overcome a difficult matchup and is one of, if not, the favorite to finish the night as the highest scoring pitcher and would be needed in tournaments on an abbreviated 5-game slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Luke Weaver had a 19.8 K-BB%, but ERA above five in 36.1 major league innings last year
Luke Weaver arrived in the league with a 19.8 K-BB% through 36.1 innings, but seven HRs and a .386 BABIP shot his ERA above five and more than two runs above his non-FIP estimators. While he had an outrageous 36.6 LD%, his hard hit rate was just 32.4%. This season, he’s generated a 21.7 K-BB% through 13 AAA starts without BABIP or HR issues. One area of concern is that he’s failed to go more than five innings in seven of his last nine AAA starts. The Diamondbacks drop off sharply on the road (80 wRC+, 24.4 K%, 10.6 Hard-Soft%), but have recently upgraded their lineup with a bat that has shown proficiency in difficult parks before. Weaver is certainly a pitcher who can be paired with a higher priced arm and may even be worth a flyer for multiple lineup players on FanDuel, though there is that concern about his workload. With just a 30.3 GB% through 39.1 major league innings and mostly below average ground ball rates in the minors there is some merit to targeting Arizona bats despite their 4.35 implied run line being second lowest on the slate. The most obvious targets are Jake Lamb (138 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP since last season) and David Peralta (107 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since last season) with the platoon advantage. Paul Goldschmidt (138 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2016), A.J. Pollock (122 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and J.D. Martinez (140 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are quite expensive with the park downgrade. Goldschmidt is the third best projected player by the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight though. Jake Lamb is a top 10 bat too.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, JD Martinez