DFS Alerts
RHBs have a .417 wOBA and 40.7 Hard% against Chris O'Grady in three starts
Chris O’Grady has allowed exactly three runs in each of his three starts with a high of 5.1 innings, while walking six in his most recent. Ten percent of his batted balls have been barrels with an 88.8 mph aEV. RHBs in particular have a .417 wOBA and 40.7 Hard% against him with both of his HRs allowed. Additionally, only a quarter of his contact has been on the ground against batters from either side. Unfortunately, this game is being played in a power suppressing park in Miami rather than the power friendly one in Cincinnati and the Reds are running some LHBs through the middle (.244 wOBA, 15.4 Hard% vs O’Grady). Both Eugenio Suarez (134 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Adam Duvall (122 wRC+, .270 ISO vs LHP since last season) are fine plays tonight though. Suarez has a 164 wRC+ with three HRs over the last week. He’s an interesting pivot from a much more expensive Kris Bryant, who is facing a pitcher who has kept RHBs grounded on 58.9% of batted balls with a 25.8 Hard% since last season.
Other tagged players: Adam Duvall
Zack Godley has allowed 10 ERs over his last 11.2 innings, but has struck out 19 of 53 BF
Zack Godley has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) over his last 11.2 innings, but while striking out 19 of 53 batters. It seems he’s abandoned ground balls (34.5% last two starts) and while daily fantasy players will always take the strikeout increase, it hasn’t really worked out too well for him. His 14.9 SwStr% is tops on the slate, while his ground ball rate remains well above average (55.8% for the season) with just an 85 mph aEV and 4.3% Barrels/BBE. The RotoGrinders Player Projections have him as tonight’s top pitcher and the Daily K Predictor has him behind only Chris Archer at 6.86. The confirmed version of the St Louis lineup has several rookies and only three LHBs. While RHBs have just a .292 wOBA against Godley since last season, they have a higher 35.6 Hard% and lower 51.4 GB%. While Godley’s high SwStr% and recent uptick in strikeouts probably gives him a high floor, there’s no shame in hedge with a St Louis heavy lineup in case he keeps up with his recent fly ball ways. Tommy Pham (129 wRC+, .198 ISO, 42.2 Hard%) and Matt Carpenter (137 wRC+, .243 ISO, 45.4 Hard%) have torched RHP since last season, while Paul DeJong has a 111 wRC+, .273 ISO and 41.2 Hard% against them in his rookie season. Tonight’s cleanup hitter, Randal Grichuk has a 270 wRC+ and 47.4 Hard% over the last week along with a .233 ISO and 42.8 Hard% against RHP this year. While Godley has strong DFS upside for less than $9K and gets a major park upgrade, the Cardinals are actually third with an implied run line of 4.67 right now.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Zack Godley, Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Randal Grichuk White Sox have a team 106 wRC+ vs LHP, but confirmed lineup just a .148 ISO, 22.6 K%
The Chicago White Sox have a 106 wRC+ vs LHP, but that has been falling for some time and they’ve spent most of the season with Todd Frazier and Avisail Garcia in the lineup, whom they don’t currently have. In fact, this confirmed lineup has a .329 wOBA, but just a .148 ISO and 22.6 K% vs LHP. Jon Lester tied a season high with 10 strikeouts last time out (third time), going eight innings for the first time. He’s bounced back nicely after a couple of beatings to start the month. His 24.9 K% hasn’t budged more than 0.2 points for more than three seasons now, while his above average contact management (84.9 mph aEV, 27% 95+ mph EV, 27 Hard%) is in line with career rates. He’s the unquestioned anchor of this pitching staff this year and where players go if they’re looking for “safe” tonight. Considering that this lineup is entirely right-handed tonight, Lester has a .298 wOBA and 26.8 Hard% vs RHBs since last season. The White Sox have three batters above a 110 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP, including Jose Abreu, who is crushing southpaws this year (181 wRC+, .236 ISO) and has a 157 wRC+ over the last week. The other six batters consist of five with a sub-.120 ISO vs LHP this year. Lester will throw a five pitch arsenal at RHBs, all at least 9% of the time according to Brooks Baseball. He will work the corners a bit, but mostly tries to stay down and away, which does match up better for Abreu’s hot zones than anyone else. Considering that Lester throws the Cutter around a quarter of a time to RHBs and that’s the pitch in his repertoire that Abreu struggles the most with, that’s likely how he’ll be attacked tonight. While players should be hesitant to immediately cut entire lineups out of their player pool on five game slates, the White Sox are the only offense with an implied run line below four (3.83). Abreu and maybe even Melky Cabrera ($2.8K on FanDuel) can be interesting bats tonight, but you really can’t look for much more here.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Matt Davidson Zach Godley leads Thursday night's slate with a 14.6% SwStr% this year
This tops Chris Archer, who has a 13.5% SwStr%, although Archer’s overall k-rate bests Godley’s 29.3% to 26.2%. While Godley’s 3.32 ERA beats Archer’s 3.77, his SIERA is a slightly behind – 3.56 to 3.50. Even so, those numbers are good for second and first, respectively. Despite performing well in those metrics, Godley’s opponent, the Cardinals, have the third-highest projected run total (4.67) while the Yankees, who will face Archer, are fourth (4.59). Jon Lester, who’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($11.9k) and comes with the second-highest price tag on FanDuel ($10.0k), has the third-lowest SIERA (3.80). His opponent, the White Sox, have the lowest projected run total on the board (3.82) and they’re the only ones below 4.33. This will likely skew ownership in his direction, but Godley may be the better value. In both our FD and DK projection models, Godley tops the slate in raw points, yet he costs just $8.5k on FD and $8.4k on DK, which is a pretty large savings off the other two targets mentioned – Archer is $10.5k on FD and $11.1k on DK. He offers the best GB% rate among the trio at 55.8% – Lester is second with 50.5% and Archer third at 41.4% – and second in Hard% with a rate of 29.3%, which is much better than Archer’s 38.0% and slightly trails Lester’s 27.0%. Godley is set to face a St. Louis squad currently projected to start six righty bats. Although the hurler allows more hard contact (31.6%) and has a lower ground ball rate (49.5%) against RHB, he strikes out more righties (27.7% vs. 24.3%) and he’s limited RHB to .244 wOBA and .096 ISO in 2017. The Cardinals’ projected lineup strikes out against RHP at a 22.1% clip, but they have posted a solid .197 ISO. Still, with the numbers Goldey has put up this year, their projected run total appears to be misleading. Fortunately, it could suppress his ownership levels. He certainly has upside to make up for any perceived risk – he’s struck out at least six in six consecutive starts, reaching eight in four of those contests, and fanned 10 in his most recent outing.
Three of six teams have projected run totals of 4.92 or higher on Thursday's early slate
Cleveland (5.37), Washington (5.18), and Toronto (4.92) are in the top four when considering the entire day while the other three squads, Los Angeles Angels (4.13), Oakland (3.58), and Milwaukee (2.82), are all in the bottom four. The Indians will face J.C. Ramirez, who’s demonstrated some major splits this season. Against LHB (238 TBF), he’s allowing a .381 wOBA, .293 ISO, 45.0% Hard%, 37.9% FB% while he’s held RHB (246 TBF) to .282 wOBA, .086 ISO, 29.7% Hard%, 24.9% FB%. Five of Cleveland’s first six hitters will bat from the left side and a stack with those guys is clearly a strong, and chalky, option. The Nationals will square off against Michael Blazek, who’s only pitched 6.1 innings this season. If we include his 41.1 IP from 2016, we see he’s posted a 4.93 SIERA and doesn’t demonstrate strong splits. Against LHB (91 TBF): .370 wOBA, .160 ISO, 31.8% Hard%, 38.7% FB%. RHB (131 TBF): .373 wOBA, .218 ISO, 33.0% Hard%, 38.9% FB%. The primary difference is in power, which bodes well for Ryan Zimmerman (.237 ISO) and Anthony Rendon (.239 ISO), although Washington’s lefty bats are in a fine spot as well. In fact, Bryce Harper tops our projection model today (15.31 FD points, 11.73 DK points). Finally, LHP Sean Manaea will face nine righty bats this afternoon when he takes the mound against Toronto. Through 349 RHB faced, he’s allowing a 39.5% Hard%, but the rest of his numbers aren’t terrible: .316 wOBA, .147 ISO, 41.9% GB%. It makes sense to attack him with Toronto’s hard-hitting bats like Smoak (44.3% Hard vs. LHP this year), Donaldson (40.6% Hard%), Morales (40.3% Hard%), Pillar (38.3% Hard%), and Pearce (36.6% Hard%) to take advantage of his primary weakness. Jose Bautista has struggled against LHP this year with a 26.7% Hard%, .102 ISO, .250 wOBA, but his Soft% is just 13.3%, his BABIP is .207, and he boasts a solid 43.3% FB%.
Isolated showers expected in Cleveland area Thursday afternoon (YELLOW/GREEN)
We’re expecting the precipitation to stay south of Progressive field, where the Indians host the Angels. There are going to be storms in Washington later this evening, but they should hold off until after the Brewers-Nationals game (GREEN). Both matchups will be in the low 80s and humid while the third game on the early slate (OAK-TOR) is in a dome. Later tonight, the TB-NYY outing is the biggest concern (YELLOW/ORANGE). Storms are expected to come after the game, but some of our forecast models have them arriving during the game. It’ll be worth checking out our pre-lock update when we’ll have a clearer picture. Unlike New York, St. Louis is going to experience some heavy rain and potentially flooding during the day, but it should clear up by first pitch. We’re considering the ARI-STL matchup YELLOW as the field will need to hold up during the afternoon and we may see some lingering showers. We’ll update this afternoon, in the meantime follow Kevin on Twitter @KevinRothWX.
Chicago Cubs up nearly a quarter of a run since this afternoon, White Sox down equally
While the total of the battle for Chicago hasn’t changed tonight, the Cubs have increased their implied run line 0.23 runs (5.76 to 5.99), while their opponents (the White Sox) have seen an equal drop (3.74 to 3.51) since this afternoon. At their apex, the Cubs barely cracked the six run mark (6.01), but never caught the top team, Texas, now up 0.15 runs from 6.21 early this afternoon to 6.36. Cubs’ batters were already expected to be incredibly popular against James Shields, perhaps even more so than Texas bats against Jose Urena. Players can track run line movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Josh Phegley scratched, replaced by Bruce Maxwell
Josh Phegley has been scratched from the Oakland lineup. He will be replaced by Bruce Maxwell in a straight up swap.
As reported by: Susan Slusser Other tagged players: Josh Phegley Cubs, Rangers, and a pair of Carlos's expected to be most popular tonight
The Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers are both currently implied for six runs tonight and as such, they project to dominate ownership across both sites without a lot of high priced pitching. Dodgers against Ervin Santana (10 HRs last seven starts) and Kansas City RHBs against Anibal Sanchez (RHBs .394 wOBA this year) may make interesting, more lightly represented alternatives. The Carlos’s, Carrasco and Martinez, are the top projected pitchers and are expected to be most popular tonight. While there are a few interesting pitchers on the board tonight, there are few standouts. Aaron Nola has gone seven innings in five of his last six starts with a 22.3 K-BB%. He’s projected to have few takers tonight, but George Springer’s absence may make his matchup with the Astros more appealing.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Carlos Martinez, Aaron Nola, Ervin Santana, Anibal Sanchez The White Sox are tied for the lowest implied team total (3.6) on Wednesday's slate
Jake Arrieta had the epitome of an up-and-down season through the first half of the year but seems to have settled into a nice groove following the All-Star break, allowing no more than two earned runs in each start and pitching at least six innings in two consecutive outings. The biggest factors in Arrieta’s decline this season had been a jump in his hard hit rate up to 28.3% and a decrease in his usually outstanding ground ball ability down to a 45.6%, essentially making him more susceptible to home runs and potential big innings. Although both of those statistics are roughly in line with league averages, Arrieta’s contact and groundball skills were really what set him apart and made him a former perennial Cy Young candidate. With that said, since the beginning of June, a nine-start sample size, Arrieta has managed to get somewhat back on track, notching a 22.4% hard-hit rate and 50.7% groundball rate. Unfortunately, it’s not all good news, as he seems to have sacrificed some of his strikeouts (18.4%) to get back to his normal low-hard-contact, ground ball ways. Despite the dip in strikeouts of late, Arrieta remains a fantastic option as an SP2 on DraftKings, where he is still fairly priced at $9.3K, in a matchup with an inept Chicago White Sox offense that has struggled, to put it mildly, against right-handed pitching this entire season. In fact, the White Sox rank 26th in wRC+ (87), 28th in wOBA (.305), and 24th in ISO (.156), which is unlikely to improve after trading away one of their top power threats in Todd Frazier in recent days. Piling on top of those horrendous numbers, the White Sox also strike out at a 22.3% clip to righties while drawing walks at just a 6.6% rate, good for second fewest in the Majors, which should help Arrieta avoid running up his pitch count and pitch deeper into this contest. So, clearly, this matchup has safety and the potential for a great point-per-dollar output from Arrieta, even with possible upside, making him a viable cash game target and still somewhat usable in tournaments if uncomfortable pivoting to some of the other more volatile starting pitching options.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds
A couple of YELLOWs in Detroit & Chicago, but no significant concerns in the evening forecast
Without expectation of a significant impact there are some weather conditions in Detroit (vs Kansas City) and Chicago (vs Chicago) that need to be watched. Players are unlikely to be too concerned about pitchers in those games with the possible exception of Jake Arrieta, while hitters are almost certainly fine with Kevin giving both games a YELLOW rating. Players can read Kevin’s full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Ervin Santana has allowed 10 HRs with a .wOBA above .400 over his last seven starts
Ervin Santana was an All-Star this year, but many expected some serious regression and while that has already began in some form as his BABIP has risen above .200 and his ERA is above three, he’s still far separated from his estimators. Some may still consider him a good pitcher and avoid attacking him with a strong Dodger lineup tonight, but the truth is that despite two complete game shutouts and two more outings without allowing a run, he still has a 4.47 ERA with 19 HRs allowed over his last 14 starts. He’s allowed 10 HRs with a 5.67 ERA over his last seven starts. Over that time, he has split his 10 HRs evenly with batters from either side holding a wOBA above .380 against him. Over that time, he has mixed in some changeups to LHBs, but attacked RHBs almost strictly with heaters and sliders. While he’s remains on the outside portion of the plate at the belt or below against RHBs this season, he’s been all over the plate belt high and below against LHBs. Unfortunately for him, all four projected RHBs in tonight’s lineup have been proficient against sliders this season though Logan Forsythe has greatly struggled against RHP (58 wRC+, .036 ISO). Yasiel Puig has smashed them though (131 wRC+, .256 ISO), while Justin Turner has hit for less power (135 wRC+, .099 ISO). Both he and Chris Taylor (136 wRC+, .221 ISO) are sporting a BABIP of 370 or above against RHP this year. From the left-hand side, Corey Seager (132 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP this year) may be the bat to watch out for. He has covered everything belt high and below well this year, including sliders and changeups according to PlateIQ. In fact none of the projected LHBs have issues with anything in Santana’s usual arsenal, while Cody Bellinger (154 wRC+, .362 ISO vs RHP) has been smashing anything middle or in. While many players may be looking to stack offenses in Texas and Chicago, don’t sleep on the Dodgers at 4.99 implied runs.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Logan Forsythe Cleveland bats dominate overall hitter ratings, Cubs project for value on FanDuel
A trio of first basemen (Anthony Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion, Cody Bellinger) are the top overall projected bats tonight with Kris Bryant not far behind according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. While Cleveland dominates the projections with four batters inside the top 10 (Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor), the team with the top implied run line (Texas) only sees Shin-Soo Choo place 10th on FanDuel. The Cubs are the only other offense with multiple batters in the top 10. Value hunter will note another trio of Cubs (Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell) all projecting for more than 3.7 Pt/$/K on FanDuel because stacking against James Shields is easy. The difficult decision may be which batters to omit. DraftKings projections like another Texas bat, Nomar Mazara, as a top value (2.54 Pt/$/K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Cody Bellinger, Kris Bryant, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell Nola, Carrasco, Nelson and Fiers all have strikeout rates above 30% over the last month.
Though four pitchers on a 10 game night slate have a strikeout rate above 30% over the last month (Aaron Nola, Carlos Carrasco, Jimmy Nelson, Mike Fiers), the Daily K Predictor has Steven Matz on top with 6.99, a bit ahead of Yu Darvish (6.81). Matz does face a San Diego offense with a 73 wRC+ and 25.7 K% vs LHP this year, but struggled greatly to miss bats (6.8 SwStr%) with a reluctance to use his slider. Darvish is not having his best year (18.3 K-BB% is his worst since his first season, but still top 15), but still struck out 12 in his last start and has shown flashes with double digit strikeouts four times. He has the highest price tag on the slate and the sweltering Texas heat working against him. The RotoGrinders Player Projections are essentially undecided between Carlos Carrasco and Carlos Martinez as the top overall arm tonight. The former has a slate leading 15.1 SwStr% over the last month, but with a 37.8 GB% has been just barely above a 35.1 Hard% though. Carlos Martinez has seen his peripherals tumble over his last four starts with 15 strikeouts, nine walks and six HRs. However, velocity has actually increased and there’s no discernable pattern in his profile that suggests an answer for these struggles. The Rockies have an 80 wRC+ and 16.6 K-BB% on the road and a 79 wRC+ with a 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP. Aaron Nola does face the Astros (138 wRC+ on the road, 134 wRC+ vs RHP), but has a 22.3 K-BB% over his last six starts with at least seven innings in five of them. He costs just $7.5K on DraftKings. LHBs have a 30.2 K-BB% against Jimmy Nelson since the middle of June, although with a 37.2 Hard%, while RHBs have a 53.4 GB% and -2.2 Hard-Soft%. Bryce Harper could give him trouble in Washington, but the Nationals have just a 57 wRC+ with a 17.7 K-BB% and 6.4 HR/FB over the last week. Mike Fiers has a slate leading 33.3 K% over the last month, but with just an 8.8 SwStr%. Over his last five starts though, he has just a 26.5 GB% and 39.7 Hard%, which might be a difficult profile to pay up for in Philadelphia, who have a team 108 wRC+ in the second half.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Jimmy Nelson, Aaron Nola, Mike Fiers, Steven Matz, Yu Darvish, Carlos Martinez Lucas Duda (135 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP) has a tendency to mash where Jhoulys Chacin often makes mistakes
The Mets have the third best sOPS+ (123) against ground ball pitchers (Baseball-Reference) and Jhoulys Chacin has a 52.9 GB% this year, but he’s also allowed just 27.5% of contact above 95 mph. Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, and Lucas Duda all exceed a 150 sOPS+ against ground ballers with Asdrubal Cabrera at 149. Duda may be particularly interesting because he has homered twice in 9 PAs against Chacin with a 99.5 mph aEV on four BBEs. Brooks Baseball has Chacin attacking LHBs with a five pitch mix, most of which Duda (138 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP this year) handles well according to PitchIQ, the exception being a change-up Chacin utilizes just 11% of the time (Brooks). Chacin has had a tendency to leave too many pitches (8.9%) on the outer middle of the plate, which may account for the 15 HRs he’s allowed this year despite the quality contact management overall. That outer middle also happens to be where Duda does the most damage. Conforto has hammered RHP (169 wRC+, .312 ISO this season) and been hot since the break (227 wRC+ over the last week). He handles most areas of the plate well and only really struggles against well placed breaking balls that dive out of the zone. PitchIQ has him stronger against sliders than curveballs though and Chacin generally throws twice as many sliders (21%) as curves (10%) vs LHBs.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jhoulys Chacin, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto