DFS Alerts
No noteworthy weather issues or factors in Sunday's MLB forecast
It’s a rare weather day across Major League Baseball, as absolutely zero games have any rain concerns, strong winds, high humidity, or high temperatures of note. Even with no weather issues to worry about, still be sure to check out Kevin Roth’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
R.A. Dickey has a 5.32 SIERA and 26.9% LD% since the All-Star break
R.A. Dickey has shown that he can still be an extremely hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, coming off of two straight outings allowing exactly four earned runs, but he seems to do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming squad. This year, Dickey has seen a small drop in his already low strikeout rate, down to 15.6% to go along with a 9.3% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (47.9%) and limit hard contact to just 26.8% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it’s difficult to imagine Dickey’s 4.31 ERA continuing to improve with a 5.15 SIERA, and he has allowed a minimum of three runs in 12 of 20 starts this season. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Philadelphia Phillies more of a stack or fade situation in tournaments this afternoon since there should be plenty of baserunners with a high probability of home runs but difficult to predict where said production will come from. Aaron Altherr (150 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP) and Nick Williams (118 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP) are the clear top targets from this Phillies offense, while Freddy Galvis (.190 ISO vs RHP), Cesar Hernandez (108 wRC+, .341 wOBA vs RHP), and Tommy Joseph (.177 ISO vs RHP) are more of second tier options but are logical members to round out a Phillies stack in tournaments if deciding to deploy that strategy on Sunday’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Nick Williams, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Tommy Joseph, R.A. Dickey Tim Adleman has posted a 5.1% K-BB% versus LHB, leading to a 6.07 xFIP
After a decent start to the 2017 campaign, Tim Adleman has pitched, well, like Tim Adleman of late, allowing three or more earned runs in each of his last seven starts. So, clearly, he still isn’t the type of pitcher we need to shy away from attacking with opposing hitters. This is especially true given his matchup with a Miami Marlins squad that can certainly hold its own against right-handed pitching, ranking in the middle of the pack in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO, each of the major offensive categories. To this point in his career, Adleman has been a fly ball pitcher to left-handed batters (51.1% FB%) and owns, essentially, neutral splits to righties, though he is surrendering a lot more hard contact (36.8% HH%) against righties opposed to 31.4% against lefties. He also looks to be an average strikeout pitcher (19.4% K%) that has exhibited some questionable control (9.1% BB% in 2017), meaning that there should be expected to be a plethora of baserunners from both sides of the plate Saturday evening. Christian Yelich (112 wRC+, .347 wOBA vs RHP) is far and away the top overall option to target from this Miami lineup in all formats given his platoon advantage and long track record of crushing fly ball pitchers. He’s closely followed by Marcell Ozuna (142 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .269 ISO vs RHP) and Giancarlo Stanton (139 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .299 ISO vs RHP), each possessing enough individual power to take advantage of an average pitcher like Adleman. The secondary tier of Marlins hitters looks to be J.T. Realmuto (112 wRC+, .347 wOBA vs RHP), Miguel Rojas (117 wRC+, .355 wOBA vs RHP), and even Tomas Telis, though Realmuto and Rojas have really lacked individual power, making them less appealing options on their own. Meaning, the aforementioned trio is likely better utilized as stack fillers, whereas, Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton have tremendous upside, as always, and are viable as both one-offs and core pieces to a Marlins stack in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto, Miguel Rojas, Tomas Telis, Tim Adleman Very little rain concerns in Saturday night's MLB weather forecast
It’s a relatively quiet night across Major League Baseball in terms of weather, as the game with the worst rain “risk” comes to us in Washington, D.C. for the matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals where Kevin Roth has a grade of YELLOW/GREEN for the chance of some early showers. However, a rain delay is far from likely, leaving both starting pitchers and hitters firmly in play for all formats this evening. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Trevor Cahill has fallen victim to a .379 BABIP over his last four starts
Trevor Cahill is set to make his fifth start since being activated from the disabled list and first as a member of the Kansas City Royals rotation tonight against the Boston Red Sox after a rough start his last time out against the San Francisco Giants, allowing five earned runs in 3.2 innings pitched and striking out just one batter. Since his return from injury, Cahill has remained one of the several pitchers this season that had seen a drastic increase in his strikeout rate over his typical career numbers, evidenced by his measly 17.3% career punch out rate. However, through 11 starts in 2017, his strikeout rate is all the way up to 27.4% and is even supported by a 12.8% swinging strike rate, meaning that this newfound strikeout ability is more than sustainable if he is able to continue inducing that many swings and misses in or around the strike zone. Even if those numbers regress a small amount following the stint on the disabled list, Cahill would still find himself in the category of pitchers with elite strikeout ability. In addition to the increased strikeouts, Cahill has managed to induce groundballs at a 56.8% rate, which is something he has always been able to do well but is extra impressive considering he isn’t sacrificing any of his groundball ability to increase his strikeout totals. He also will receive the added benefit of squaring off with a Red Sox lineup that is nothing special against right-handed pitching, ranking 25th in wRC+, 22nd in wOBA, and 29th in ISO, despite striking out just 19.3% of the time, good for a fourth-best in the Majors. The Red Sox do draw walks at an 8.7% clip but should still allow Cahill keep his occasional control issues in check (9.1% BB%) and pitch his way to a solid enough outing to pay off his affordable salary on DraftKings even without the perceived high strikeout upside in this matchup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Dustin Pedroia scratched Saturday; Xander Bogaerts replaces and will bat sixth
Pedroia has officially been scratched from the Boston Red Sox lineup for tonight’s game against the Kansas City Royals due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Xander Bogaerts, who will play shortstop and bat sixth, sliding Eduardo Nunez over to the keystone position to replace Pedroia defensively. This lineup change will bump Nunez up to the second spot in the order and slide Andrew Benintendi down one slot to the three-hole. However, the remainder of the Red Sox previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Tim Britton Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts Jacob deGrom has a 3.6% BB% and 3.26 SIERA in his last six starts
Jacob deGrom is set to take the mound this afternoon on the road against the Seattle Mariners in search of his third double-digit strikeout performance in his last six outings. deGrom has continued to look like a new and improved starting pitcher throughout this entire season, but more specifically in the strikeout department. In his first two seasons in the Majors, he notched a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging strike rate in 2014 and a 27.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging strike rate in 2015, meaning he had never been quite the consistent strikeout pitcher that’s he been to this point in the year. However, last season’s dip in strikeouts was likely the anomaly of the sample set considering deGrom’s 27.9% strikeout rate and 13.3% swinging strike rate this season would both set new career-highs and are at least somewhat within the range of his 2015 numbers. Adding to the appeal of deGrom on Saturday’s early slate is a neutral matchup with a Mariners squad that is essentially a league-average offense against right-handed pitching overall, ranking 16th in wOBA (.320) and 21st in ISO (.161) and striking out at a 21.5% clip. Despite a more dangerous matchup on paper, deGrom is still arguably the safest and highest upside starting pitching option on the early slate. This looks to be one of those situations where the reward greatly outweighs the risk, and deGrom remains the pitcher with the highest likelihood to post a tournament winning score across the industry given his probability of pitching deeper into the game than Rich Hill, who undeniably has the safer matchup and the preferred cash game option to deGrom at similar price points.
As reported by: FanGraphs Brandon Belt scratched Friday; Nick Hundley replaces
Belt has officially been scratched from the San Francisco Giants lineup for tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers due to a sore wrist. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Nick Hundley, who will play catcher and bat seventh, moving Buster Posey over to first base to replace Belt defensively. Since Hundley will slot directly into Posey’s spot in the lineup, the remainder of the Giants previously confirmed batting order will remain unchanged.
As reported by: Andrew Baggarly Other tagged players: Nick Hundley Jeremy Hellickson scratched Friday; Jake Thompson starting in his place
Thompson has had very little success at the big league level in his limited stint over the last two seasons, so the Braves bats from both sides get a bump in value as a result of this news. It looks like Hellickson will be on the move as the deadline approaches.
As reported by: Meghan Montemurro Other tagged players: Jake Thompson
DraftKings lock moved up to 7pm EST Friday, from 7:05pm EST, due to ATL-PHI gametime change
With the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies choosing to move their start time up to 7 pm EST due to impending weather concerns, DraftKings has officially announced that they will move up their lock time up five minutes to 7 pm EST for all contests on Friday’s main slate. However, DraftKings still obviously offers late-swap for MLB, so players in remaining games will lock at their originally scheduled times per usual.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of DraftKings Still some concern in the Atlanta @ Philadelphia game
While the Braves and Phillies have moved up the start time five minutes due to potential weather issues and created havoc among daily fantasy players, Kevin is still concerned with the weather impact in this game. It seems they will have to play through at least light to moderate rain, but the decision to move the game up likely suggests an intent to play through some of the wet stuff. However, Kevin still grades it ORANGE/YELLOW, containing at least some risk, while players are unlikely to be too interested in the pitchers in this game at least. There’s also a slight chance of delay a bit north in New York (vs Tampa Bay), but it doesn’t seem like enough of a concern to consider fading anyone yet. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and remember to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Jake Lamb scratched Friday; Daniel Descalso replaces and will bat leadoff
Lamb has officially been scratched from the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup for tonight’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Daniel Descalso, who take over the third base duties and bat leadoff. This lineup change will slide David Peralta down to the third spot in the order from his original leadoff position. However, the remainder of the Diamondbacks previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
Other tagged players: Daniel Descalso FanDuel contests will lock at 7pm Friday t (five minutes earlier), late swap still available
With the Phillies and Braves moving up their start time to 7pm due to impending weather issues, FanDuel has announced that they will move up their lock to 7pm for all contests on the main slate as well (five minutes earlier than usual). Remember that FanDuel offers late swap, so all players will still be able to adjust their lineups for all players not involved in this game.
As reported by: FanDuel Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager have hit both LHP and fly ball pitchers well this season
One potentially contrarian angle that today’s Trendspotting article hits on is both Matt Moore’s proclivity towards a reverse split (LHBs .356 wOBA & 33.5 Hard%, RHBs .319 wOBA & 32.4 Hard% since last season) and the ability of Cody Bellinger to hammer LHP (126 wRC+, .319 ISO, 43.3 Hard%). Corey Seager has inflicted some same-handed pain too (142 wRC+, .229 ISO this year). Adding further fuel to this fire, Moore has just a 37.6 GB% this season, while the Dodgers are the second best offense against fly ball pitchers according to Baseball-Reference (118 sOPS+). Brooks baseball has Moore coming at LHBs mostly with four-seam fastballs (46%) and curves (26%) with a few cutters (16%). PitchIQ says that Moore likes to attack both sides of the plate against LHBs, but more often outside and low. Both Seager and Bellinger have great plate coverage on anything belt high or below, Seager can struggle with stuff down and away, which makes sense considering he’s stronger against cutters than curveballs. Bellinger seems to be the opposite, struggling a bit with curves, but not cutters. While Justin Turner has been the top Dodger bat against fly ball pitching (195 sOPS+), Seager (169 sOPS+) and Bellinger (165 sOPS+) happen to be second and third.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Matt Moore RotoGrinders Player Projections like Cleveland bats for overall point totals and value
Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Edwin Encarnacion are the top three overall hitters on both sites tonight according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. While Kris Bryant, Jose Altuve and Joey Votto are the next three highest projected players on either site, the orders are shuffled. Cleveland is the only team that sneaks two players into the top 10 with Jose Ramirez joining his teammate on the DraftKings projections against Derek Holland (RHBs .494 wOBA since the beginning of June. Another Cleveland bat, Brandon Guyer, projects at the top value on FanDuel (3.78 Pt/$/K), though Joey Votto is not far behind (3.65 Pt/$/K). Among players projected for at least seven DraftKings points, Nick Williams may be the top value (2.52 Pt/$/K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Edwin Encarnacion, Kris Bryant, Jose Altuve, Joey Votto, Brandon Guyer, Nick Williams