DFS Alerts
Max Scherzer, Marco Estrada and Andrew Moore are facing top seven offenses vs fly ball pitchers
The New York Yankees (117 sOPS+), Cleveland Indians (113 sOPS+) and Arizona Diamondbacks (108 sOPS+) are all top seven offenses against fly ball pitchers this year according to Baseball-Reference. The Yankees have been slumping since the All-Star break (66 wRC+) with a hectic schedule and suffer a significant park dowgrade in Safeco, but Andrew Moore has allowed eight HRs in four starts. Didi Gregorius has been the only above average bat among regulars over the last week (148 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%). Brett Gardner has a 102 wRC+, but just a 13.6 Hard%. He did homer last night though and LHBs have a .358 wOBA (37.5 Hard%) against Moore so far. Marco Estrada has a league average K% over the last month (five starts), but just a 0.0 K-BB%. Let that sink in for a minute. RHBs now have a .324 wOBA and 34.5 Hard% against him since last season, making Edwin Encarnacion (127 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2016) the most interesting bat in the lineup against him. He was a favorite of the Trendspotting article today, which mentions Estrada’s 8.6% Barrels/BBE (88 mph aEV). The Diamondbacks face Max Scherzer, who has extended his dominance to the batted ball realm in recent starts. He has allowed just one HR with a -1.4 Hard-Soft% over the last month. While not an endorsement to use Arizona bats tonight, Diamondback prowess against fly ball pitchers could be part of the motive to fade in favor of Chris Sale or another of several strong options tonight.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Andrew Moore, Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Marco Estrada, Edwin Encarnacion
Houston Astros among top overall hitters and top values via the RotoGrinders Player Projections
Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are the top projected hitters tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections) on either site with two Houston batters rounding out the top five (Jose Altuve & George Springer) with a Joey Votto sandwich in the middle. The Rockies have the top implied run line when they host Trevor Williams, who has been pitching better over the last month (3.81 ERA/3.83 SIERA/20.5 K%/54.1 GB%). The Astros really should punish Ubaldo Jimenez, although it’s LHBs who have really tortured him since last season (.398 wOBA). Joey Votto is just good (165 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and faces a Jose Urena (LHBs .343 wOBA since last year). Among batters projected for at least eight points, Mike Moustakas (2.45 Pt/$/K) and Gregory Polanco (2.4 Pt/$/K) are potential top values on DraftKings at $3.6K each. Josh Reddick (3.83 Pt/$/K) and Brian McCann (3.81 Pt/$/K) make a ton of sense as top values on FanDuel for less than $3K.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: George Springer, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Joey Votto, Josh Reddick, Brian McCann, Mike Moustakas, Gregory Polanco Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, plus three more pitchers with a 25 K% and 55 GB% this year
A star studded pitching board includes both Cy Young hopefuls at this point (Chris Sale & Max Scherzer) and an addition pitcher with a 30% strikeout rate (Alex Wood). Zack Godley joins the trio as the only other pitcher with a 16+ SwStr% over the last month, while he, Wood and Trevor Cahill all have at least a 25 K% and 55 GB%. Not even mentioned yet are Aaron Nola (21.4 K-BB% over the last month), Jeff Samardzija (23.7 K-BB% this season) or Yu Darvish, all in matchups against offenses that exceed a 24 K% vs RHP. There are a number of not only viable, but potentially exceptional pitching choices tonight. The Daily K Predictor favors Scherzer (9.68), but he has a tough matchup in Arizona as Sale and Wood are favored above Scherzer by the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Nola and Cahill may both be great values in the $8-9K range.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Alex Wood, Zack Godley, Trevor Cahill, Aaron Northcraft, Yu Darvish, Jeff Samardzija Jaime Garcia expected to start Friday, trade talks aren't near finalized at this point
Aaron Blair was expected to start after it looked like Garcia would be dealt, but it’s now looking like Garcia will get the nod Friday after other teams have joined the hunt in pursuit of him. This is a huge downgrade for the LAD LH bats, as they are basically unplayable against Garcia on a full slate.
As reported by: Bob Nightengale Other tagged players: Aaron Blair
Brian Dozier has three HRs and a 92.7 mph aEV against Anibal Sanchez
According to Statcast, two batters have homered three times against the pitcher they are facing tonight, both with a lot of history in the matchup. Carlos Beltran has faced Ubaldo Jimenez 29 times with five extra-base hits, but more amazingly, no strikeouts. His 89.6 mph aEV on eight BBEs in the Statcast era is above average, though not that impressive. Sustaining an ISO a bit above .200 in the middle of one of the top offenses tonight, he should be a strong consideration against a pitcher who has allowed LHBs a .398 wOBA since last season. Brian Dozier has four extra-base hits in 34 PAs against Anibal Sanchez with eight strikeouts. On 11 Statcast recorded BBEs, he has a 92.7 mph aEV. He also has a 240 wRC+ and 50 Hard% since the break. Sanchez had been pitching better until allowing three HRs in his last start. Dozier is also the only batter to exceed a 90.4 mph aEV among batters who have at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight’s pitcher. Dropping the requirement to eight BBEs gives us a pair of hard hitting White Sox against Ian Kennedy. Jose Abreu has a 97.1 mph on nine BBEs, but no extra-base hits in 11 PAs. Melky Cabrera has a 93.1 mpph aEV (eight BBEs), but four extra-base hits (two HRs) in 22 PAs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Anibal Sanchez, Carlos Beltran, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon have top two wRC+ marks since the break
The Nationals have a team 132 wRC+ since the All-Star break, including three of the five batters above a 300 wRC+ over that span. Adam Lind (321 wRC+, 36.4 Hard%, two HRs) is likely to find a seat on the bench back in an NL park, but Bryce Harper (350 wRC+, 58.8 Hard%) and Anthony Rendon (346 wRC+, 50 Hard%), both with four HRs each, will likely attempt to extend their hot streaks in Arizona. The problem at hand is Zack Godley with his 16.2 SwStr% over the last month and 57 GB% on the season. Godley has allowed a 19.5 Hard-Soft% at home this season and had his first multiple HR outing of the year last time out in Atlanta. Joining them in the 300 wRC+ club since the break is 2017 break out Chris Taylor (303 wRC+, 47.4 Hard%, one HR). He’s expected to see Aaron Blair if the Jaime Garcia trade goes through, but his situation could improve with the platoon advantage, although one would wonder why the Braves would risk a pitcher they are currently attempting to trade today. Just below them is Charlie Blackmon (287 wRC+, 40 Hard%, three HRs). Trevor Williams has shown improvement recently and LHBs have just a 26.8 Hard% against him since last season, but a 6.7 K-BB% has led to a .357 wOBA. The Rockies currently have the top implied run line on the slate (6.39).
Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon, Adam Lind, Chris Taylor, Charlie Blackmon Royals are affordable and implied for 6.05 runs against James Shields in hot and humid KC
Despite a star studded night of pitching, there’s a game at Coors as well as Ubaldo Jimenez facing the Astros, which ensures there will be some enormous implied run lines as well. Sure enough, the Rockies are once again over-valued at a slate leading 6.39 implied runs against an improving Trevor Williams (3.81 ERA/3.83 SIERA/20.5 K%/54.1 GB% over the last month), but the other team above six runs is the Kansas City Royals (6.05) facing James Shields. Kevin is forecasting a hot and humid affair with temperatures in the mid-90s. Players may be finding themselves with a number of Royals in their lineups as they are quite affordable on either site as well. They cap at Eric Hosmer’s $3.4K on FanDuel with only Lorenzo Cain ($3.1K) also being above $3K. No Kansas City bat is above $4K on DraftKings. Whit Merrifield (108 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP this year) has turned into an actual leadoff hitter for this lineup and has a 182 wRC+ since the break. Brandon Moss could be the cheap value play here though. He has a 143 wRC+ and 50 Hard% since the break. He’s now OF eligible on both sites, which means you won’t have to punt First Base to roster him. Nine additional offenses currently have an implied run line of at least 4.9. Six of tonight’s pitchers have an 18+ HR/FB this season, including Ricky Nolasco, who has surrendered a league leading 26 HRs this year. Interestingly, not all of these HR machines line up with the top run lines tonight, including Nolasco against a slumping Red Sox offense (4.37) with a team 59 wRC+ since the break. Andrew Moore has allowed eight HRs in four starts, but a similarly slumping Yankees offense (66 wRC+ since the break) has a run line of 4.64 tonight. Mike Fiers (20.8 HR/FB) is one pitcher who may not deserve a 5.03 run line against him. Baltimore has a 15.7 K-BB% vs RHP and Fiers has a 16.2 K-BB% and 3.5 Hard-Soft% since incorporating a sinker in mid-May.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain, Brandon Moss, Eric Hosmer, James Shields, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Fiers, Trevor Williams The Padres check-in with lowest implied team total (3.0) on Thursday's slate
Madison Bumgarner is set to make his second start since being activated from the disabled list after pitching seven innings and striking out five against the same San Diego Padres team he faces tonight in his return. Although his first outing back was less than stellar, that really should be expected following a three-month layoff due to injury. One minor red flag from that start was that Bumgarner only induced a 4.9% swinging strike rate, which is concerning considering the Padres have the sixth-worst strikeout rate in the Majors against left-handed pitching, whiffing at a 25.7% clip. However, breaking down this matchup from a macro point of view, it makes far too much sense to deploy Bumgarner as our cash game starting pitcher across the industry. Despite the somewhat respectable performance in this same spot last week, this is still a Padres squad that ranks 29th in wRC+, 30th in wOBA, and 24th in ISO, providing a relatively safe floor for Bumgarner even if he still is unable to regain his typical ace stuff this time out. The real debate regarding Bumgarner on Thursday’s slate is in tournament settings, as he is the second-largest favorite (-183 money line) and the Padres are implied to score the fewest runs (3.0) by decent margin, meaning both Vegas factors should lead to inflated ownership, even more than normal given the abbreviated 5-game slate. This begs the question whether it’s worth taking an underweight approach or even a full fade in large-field tournaments in hopes of Bumgarner posting another middling performance as he works his way back from the aforementioned stint on the disabled list. On FanDuel, it looks to be less of a conversation as there is a significant price difference between Bumgarner and Luis Severino that would allow us to substantially upgrade our lineups to some higher upside bats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds
Hot and Humid with no real concerns in tonight's forecast
Kevin is forecasting heat and humidity, making for favorable hitting conditions in Kansas City and Baltimore with the latter carrying an outside chance of a popup shower, but nothing too concerning in tonight’s forecast overall. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) to find out if anything develops in Baltimore.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Jhoulys Chacin has seven straight quality starts, but with a .235 BABIP and 91.9 LOB%
Jhoulys Chacin allowed more than two ERs for the first time in seven starts last time out and still came away with a quality start. Over that span, he has a .235 BABIP and 91.9 LOB% though with a league average-ish 11.3 K-BB%. He’s in a top run prevention spot tonight in San Francisco (74 wRC+, 25.1 Hard% at home, 79 wRC+, 28.3 Hard% vs RHP), but a marginal strikeout one (19.8 K% vs RHP) and is probably not worth much more than his $7.8K price tag on either site. Chacin has only struck out more than six twice this year and no more than eight in any start. He’s been tough on RHBs (.295 wOBA, 25.7 Hard%), while LHBs have smashed him since last year (.345 wOBA, 35 Hard%). While Brandon Belt (134 wRC+, .197 ISO at home, 134 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP since last year) is the top candidate here, a park that crushes LH power really takes nearly every other bat out of consideration, except for perhaps Denard Span (122 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP this year) at a low cost on DraftKings ($3.4K). The Giants own a modest implied run line of 4.06.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Denard Span Yankees have a 67 wRC+ since the break, Felix Hernandez a 24.0 K% & -2.1 Hard-Soft% in July
Felix Hernandez is facing the second best offense against RHP (117 wRC+, 9.7 BB%, 16.8 HR/FB) and has allowed a slate high 10.4% Barrels/BBE. However, he has a 24.0 K% (10.3 SwStr%) with a -2.1 Hard-Soft% in three July starts. A 9.3 BB% and 4.90 FIP still reveal some remaining flaws, but players can also have to consider that a weary Yankees offense still hasn’t recovered from their marathon weekend in Boston, struggling in Minnesota (nine runs in three games) and now have to travel even further west to a difficult park in Seattle. They have just a team 67 wRC+, 18.3 K-BB% and 6.3 HR/FB since the All-Star break. While not expecting to see peak Felix Hernandez tonight, early projected ownership numbers are very bearish on an affordably priced arm in a potentially better than obvious spot. While not endorsing a total fade of Aaron Judge (182 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP this year), he does have a -10 wRC+ (23.5 Hard%) since the break. Matt Holliday and Todd Frazier have a negative wRC+, though hard hit rates above 35%. Though Hernandez has kept his hard hit rate below 30% against batters from either side since last season, both sides have a wRC+ above .320 against him with only 13 points of separation in his platoon split. Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Holliday, Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro all have a wRC+ between 120 and 140 with an ISO above .190 vs RHP this year. Some exposure to Yankee bats with a 4.27 implied run line can be supported and may even be a smart hedge if considering Hernandez, though consider the significant park downgrade they experience tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Matt Holliday, Didi Gregorius, Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier Luis Severino leads Thursday's main slate in SIERA, K%, and SwStr%
Despite some recent hiccups, Luis Severino continues to chug along in what is assuredly a breakout season for this once highly-touted youngster, though he has allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last six starts. However, a masterful 12 and 10-strikeout performance in seven innings of work against the Chicago White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers are sandwiched amidst the aforementioned stretch. Tonight, he’ll take the mound against an above-average, but not great, Seattle Mariners lineup on the road, which is a nice plus given how great of a hitters’ park Yankees Stadium can be. While the matchup with a team that owns a .323 wOBA and 105 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching is not something we don’t normally go out of the way to target, this is a spot where we have the opportunity to capture a nice mix of safety and upside for a discount from Madison Bumgarner, making Severino an ideal target for large field tournaments, especially on FanDuel where he is criminally underpriced, if willing to take on the added matchup risk on paper. The primary reason to feel good about Severino this evening is the elite skills he brings to the mound, a 28.1% strikeout rate and 51.5% groundball rate in addition to below-average hard contact (29.9%) is normally a winning combination for a starting pitcher, no matter the matchup difficulty. Essentially this means that Severino is lumped into the same pitching tier as Bumgarner on Thursday’s main slate and can be had for a price discount and likely ownership discount. So while Bumgarner is the clear optimal play over Severino in cash games on DraftKings (if choosing between the two) for the price and matchup with a team that lacks plate skills against left-handed pitching, consider Severino as a tournament pivot, primarily on FanDuel, with nearly identical, if not, better upside and advanced metrics as Bumgarner if removing matchup difficulty from the equation.
As reported by: FanGraphs Dodgers have a major league high team 153 wRC+ since the All-Star break
The Dodgers currently have the top implied run line on the slate (5.15) and while Mike Foltynewicz does have a 2.67 ERA and 24.2 K% over his last five starts, that’s predicated on an 87.3 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB with a 9.9 SwStr% that’s merely league average. LHBs have thumped him soundly for a .350 wOBA since the start of last season with just a 32.3 GB%. Cody Bellinger (162 wRC+, .385 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Seager (147 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since last season) are not only core bats tonight, but top ones on the slate according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Both have an sOPS+ above 170 against fly ball pitchers this season according to Baseball Reference. Joc Pederson (142 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Yasmani Grandal (118 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since last season) add strong support to a potentially potent stack. Aside from a 120 team wRC+ at home this year (third), the Dodgers have a major league high team 153 wRC+ since the All-Star break.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Mike Foltynewicz, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson Danny Duffy has surrendered 32 of his 34 HRs to RHBs since the start of last season
While the recently departed J.D. Martinez is a major part of the Detroit assault on LHP this year (124 wRC+ leads baseball, 18.2 HR/FB, 25.7 Hard-Soft%), he’s not responsible for all of the damage. Nick Castellanos (165 wRC+, .405 ISO), Ian Kinsler (120 wRC+, .177 ISO), Justin Upton (142 wRC+, .169 ISO), James McCann (173 wRC+, .412 ISO) and Mikie Mahtook (103 wRC+, .225 ISO) have all been quality bats against southpaws as well, even if Miguel Cabrera hasn’t brought the power so far (147 wRC+, .113 ISO). PlateIQ says that the confirmed Detroit lineup has a .350 wOBA and .208 ISO vs LHP this season. Further compounding the issue is that Danny Duffy has allowed RHBs a .327 wOBA and 35.7 Hard% with 32 of his 34 HRs allowed, which make him difficult to roster despite the second highest SwStr rate on the board this season (11.7%). Every batter in the lineup has some history with Duffy since the start of the Statcast era (2015) with only the bottom two in the order below a 90 mph aEV. Detroit is currently sitting fourth with a 4.56 implied run line with a RH stack of the top of the order making a high upside GPP play, including McCann and Mahtook for salary relief.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, James McCann, Mikie Mahtook, Miguel Cabrera, Danny Duffy Wade Miley has just a 2.6% K-BB% and 5.54 SIERA over his last five starts
After a hot start to the 2017 campaign, Wade Miley has officially come back down to earth the last couple of months, allowing at least four runs in eight of his last ten starts and pitching into the sixth inning on just three occasions. Tonight, Miley is set to face off with a Texas Rangers squad that has the ability to get extremely right-handed in the right matchups, evidenced by Shin-Soo Choo and Rougned Odor being the only lefties in the Texas lineup this evening. Miley’s strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 18.5%, a substantial decrease from his early season totals, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.6% over that same time period. Miley’s 51.0% groundball rate against righties is slightly above-average but is still not enough to deter us from Rangers hitters considering he is also surrendering a 23.5% line drive rate and surrendering hard contact 32.8% of the time. With that said, the Rangers remain likely to be one of the most popular offenses on Thursday’s slate. With how much ownership the Rangers top bats are expected to attract, it definitely isn’t a horrible idea to try to get creative with your Texas stacks or even fade entirely, especially in large field tournaments given the Rangers overall weak numbers against left-handed pitching this season. However, the primary reason the Rangers stats against southpaws are so dismal to this point is due to a small sample size, as none of their players have even come close to eclipsing the 100 plate appearances plateau. Based on numbers from the last two seasons, Adrian Beltre (152 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .241 ISO vs LHP), Robinson Chirinos (129 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .276 ISO vs LHP), and Mike Napoli (117 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP) stand out as the premier plays from this Texas lineup, though Chirinos’ spot in the batting order should reserve him to tournament exposure only. Falling into the tier as secondary hitting options are Elvis Andrus (115 wRC+, .348 wOBA), who is a borderline elite play based on his 2017 numbers alone, Jonathan Lucroy (.239 ISO vs LHP), and even Delino DeShields could be worth a speculatory play as a stack filler given his batting order position of lead off.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Robinson Chirinos, Mike Napoli, Elvis Andrus, Jonathan Lucroy, Delino DeShields, Wade Miley