DFS Alerts
Tuesday's early forecast mostly clear; two games considered YELLOW
The forecast looks promising for the holiday and it’ll be warm and humid for most of the games today. There are a couple matchups that could endure some precipitation. Primarily, the PIT-PHI and HOU-ATL meetings, which are both considered YELLOW. We’re anticipating pop-ups in both areas that could cause delays, but PPDs currently seem unlikely. There’s a low chance of storms in Denver, where the Rockies will host the Reds, and some other games could potentially get some rain so be sure to check Roth’s updates over the course of the day. The warmest matchup on the slate features the Red Sox and Rangers; it’ll be 92 degrees at first pitch with humidity around 50%. Read the full report on the weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) on twitter for updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather
Curtis Granderson (hip) scratched; Wilmer Flores will start and bat sixth
The Mets have decided to give Granderson the day off after all. T.J. Rivera will move to left and Wilmer Flores will play third base today.
As reported by: Michael Baron Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores Brian Dozier scratched Monday; Joe Mauer will now lead off, Eduardo Escobar bats 2nd and plays 2nd
Dozier has been scratched from Monday’s lineup, which affords Joe Mauer the chance to lead off with Eduardo Escobar manning the keystone and batting 2nd.
As reported by: @Twins
Implied run lines for both teams in Minnesota have dropped since this afternoon
Minnesota has had the largest line drop since this noon, declining over a quarter of a run from a 5.17 implied run line to 4.9 currently against Alex Meyer. Their opponents, the Angels have declined nearly as much from 4.83 to 4.6 runs. Temperatures are supposed to be near 80 degrees with no weather impact until after the game, but it is interesting to see both teams drop off that much only within the last couple of hours. Toronto is the other interesting drop. They were at a high of 4.36 implied runs just before noon today. They dropped and then rose a bit again before settling in at 4.12 within the last hour. Players can track line movements for all games on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
Colorado bats back at home expected to dominate ownership tonight
Colorado bats are expected to dominate ownership tonight with a couple of Texas bats and a cheap Jose Peraza in the leadoff spot sneaking into the top 10 as well on either site. If Joey Votto is going to be under 20% owned due to his enormous price tag, perhaps players should make more of an effort to include him in their lineups. One potential pathway could be predominantly RH Angels’ bats against Adalberto Mejia. RHBs have a .338 wOBA (34.8 Hard%) against him, are affordably priced, and are expected to be in fewer than 10% of lineups. Masahiro Tanaka and Aaron Nola are expected to be tonight’s most popular pitchers and are likely the best pitchers on an eight game slate. One contrarian option may be Rick Porcello if you believe his hard contact tendencies are going to revert to career rates. His 16.7 K-BB% is not far below last year when he won a Cy Young. Potential ownership rates for all players are available to premium subscribers on our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Jose Peraza, Masahiro Tanaka, Aaron Nola, Rick Porcello No major concerns in Kevin's evening forecast
Kevin mentions a few spots in his evening forecast that have had rain moving through the area throughout the day, but things already are or should be clear by first pitch. Delay chances are very low for any game tonight. Read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx) in case anything changes.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Marcus Stroman is facing one of the worst offenses against GB pitchers tonight
The Yankees aren’t at the bottom of the standings in many categories offensively, but with a 79 sOPS+, only the Phillies have been worse (78 sOPS+) against ground ball pitchers this year. Ivan Nova is difficult to consider with just a 13.8 K% though. Aaron Judge is the obvious exception (182 sOPS+), but Did Gregorius has a 115 sOPS+ against ground ballers as well. No other batter in this lineup is above average and Jacoby Ellsbury (98 sOPS+) is the only other batter above 85. Stroman has no real platoon split, actually allowing HRs to RHBs at a slightly higher rate (15.7 HR/FB) in his career, though the contact management has been better (6.3 Hard-Soft%). PlateIQ says that Stroman likes to go down and outside against RHBs, but isn’t adverse to coming in occasionally, but rarely goes above the belt. He may want to stay away from Aaron Judge, who crushes inside pitches. He’s likely to see a mix of sinkers, sliders and curves from Stroman (according to Brooks Baseball), which PlateIQ again says that he hits well. While Stroman may be a top three pitcher on this slate, this shouldn’t preclude the usage of Judge. While pitchers may attempt to pitch around him more often now, one mistake from Stroman could go a long way.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Jacoby Ellsbury Coors bats have five of top six overall point projections via RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight
Coors bats dominate five of the top six spots according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight, though three of those bats reside in the lineup with a nearly one and a half lower implied run total. Joey Votto is the top overall projected bat joined by teammates Adam Duvall and Billy Hamilton. Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado own two of the top four spots against Luis Castillo (30.4 K%, 17.4 BB% through two starts). Mookie Betts is the lone non-Coors bat to break through against Martin Perez in Texas. Value hunters could look towards LH Texas bats, Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara, both projected for eight points and 2.3 Pt/$/K on DraftKings. RH Boston bats Chris Young and Sam Travis join Kyle Seager (vs Ian Kennedy) as the only bats projecting above 3.9 Pt/$/K on FanDuel tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Billy Hamilton, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Mookie Betts, Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Chris Young, Sam Travis Aaron Nola at the top of the board for both strikeout and point total projections
Rick Porcello (6.28) and Aaron Nola (6.26) are virtually tied for tonight’s top strikeout projection according to the Daily K Predictor as are Marcus Stroman (5.6) and Masahiro Tanaka (5.5) for the spots behind him. These are probably the four pitchers most worthy of players’ consideration tonight. The RotoGrinders Player Projections have a somewhat similar assessment, projecting Aaron Nola as the top pitcher, slightly ahead of Masahiro Tanaka and Ivan Nova with Rick Porcello absent from the top four. He does have an ERA above five with just league average estimators. While the peripherals are still strong (16.7 K-BB%), both he and Tanaka have had hard contact issues this year. Where Tanaka has added lots of strikeouts recently (27.6 K%, 16.8 SwStr% over the last month) and has not allowed a HR in two straight starts, Porcello’s issues have persisted. Marcus Stroman is one of two qualified pitchers with a 60% ground ball rate this season and while his strikeout rate has been inconsistent, he enters the game with a league average rate. His matchup, at Yankee Stadium (126 wRC+ at home, 119 wRC+ vs RHP) may be less intimidating than it looks. Although Aaron Judge remains, many middle of the order Yankee bats are among the injured. Aaron Nola might be the most talented pitcher on the slate. He’s facing a low power Pittsburgh offense (87 wRC+ on the road, 91 wRC+ vs RHP) and has showcased his potential over his last two outings (14.1 IP – 9 H – 3 ER – 2 HR – 6 BB – 17 K – 56 BF – 48.5 GB% – -3.1 Hard-Soft%), while he’s been a solid contact manager throughout the season (86.4 mph aEV, 4.5% Barrels/BBE). If looking to compliment your higher priced pitcher with a cheaper on DraftKings, Andrew Moore has had at least a 19.7 K% at every stop in the minors with a 3.9 BB% at AAA this season. He located well in his first major league start (7 IP – 3 ER – 0 BB – 4K) and can probably get away with a few mistakes as a fly ball pitcher in Safeco facing the Royals (86 wRC+ on the road, 87 wRC+ vs RHP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Rick Porcello, Masahiro Tanaka, Marcus Stroman, Ivan Nova, Andrew Moore A couple of Toronto bats have today's strongest Statcast BvP numbers against Masahiro Tanaka
On a couple of occasions last week, players were blessed with some deep and potentially useful BvP data. That is not the case tonight. What we do have is mostly in terms of Masahiro Tanaka facing the Blue Jays. Steve Pearce is the only one of three players with two HRs off of tonight’s opposing pitcher (Jedd Gyorko and Brett Gardner are the others), who has an aEV above 90 mph (99.4 mph on six BBEs), but he’s also struck out five in 12 PAs. Of matchups with at least 10 BBEs recorded by Statcast, Josh Donaldson (95.2 mph aEV, 15 BBEs) has the only aEV above 93 mph. He has one HR and just four strikeouts in 24 PAs against Tanaka despite the low .143 batting average.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Masahiro Tanaka Joey Votto is the most expensive bat on the board, but the hottest one too (324 wRC+ last week)
Joe Votto (324 wRC+, 50 Hard%, one HR) is the hottest batter in the majors and the only one on the slate with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week (10 PA min.). That and just general all around greatness (166 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since last season) are reasons for his exorbitant price tag at Coors ($5.8K DK, $5K on FD). John Jaso (281 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, two HRs) has a difficult matchup against Aaron Nola (LHBs .317 wOBA, 29.9 Hard% career, RHBs .292 wOBA, 27.2 Hard%) as does Andrew McCutchen (274 wRC+, 38.5 Hard%, no HRs). Against a pair of LHPs though, Hanley Ramirez (278 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) and Khris Davis (274 wRC+, 45.5 Hard%, four HRs) might have better matchups. Ramirez (165 wRC+, .299 ISO vs LHP since 2016) may be a slightly better bat against southpaws, certainly under better conditions in Texas. Many probably perceive the matchup as superior as well, though Martin Perez and Carlos Rodon both have allowed a wOBA just above .340 to RHBs since 2016. Perez has allowed the harder contact (33.6 Hard% to 27.9%).
Other tagged players: John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen, Hanley Ramirez, Khris Davis Affordable Angels bats against Adalberto Mejia (RHBs .338 wOBA) could compliment higher cost options
Despite a poor offensive showing this year (82 wRC+ at home, 76 wRC+ vs RHP, 43 wRC+ last seven days), the Rockies have an implied run line (6.68) more than a run above any other offense at home tonight against the rookie Luis Castillo, who has shown an ability to miss bats through two starts (30.4 K%, 13.5 SwStr%), but has also walked 8 of 46 batters. In all, six of 16 offenses are above five implied runs tonight. If looking to pay up for those Coors hitters though (maybe a nearly $6K Joey Votto on DraftKings), the Angels (4.83) may provide some cheaper complimentary bats against Adalberto Mejia (RHBs .338 wOBA, 34.8 Hard%). Most Angels cost around the $3K mark on FanDuel, while only a couple (Cameron Maybin, Andrelton Simmons) are a bit more costly on DraftKings. Yunel Escobar doesn’t have much power, but has a 139 wRC+ against LHP since last season. Maybin (108 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) may be able to use his speed against a pitcher with control issues. Martin Maldonado (138 wRC+, .172 ISO vs LHP this season) may even be the catcher of choice on a small slate. Despite a 12 wRC+ over the last week, he has a 57.1 Hard%.
Other tagged players: Cameron Maybin, Andrelton Simmons, Martin Maldonado, Adalberto Mejia, Joey Votto Xander Bogaerts scratched Sunday; Deven Marrero replaces and will bat ninth
Bogaerts has officially been scratched from the Boston Red Sox lineup for today’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays due to right groin tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Deven Marrero, who will take over the shortstop duties and bat ninth. This lineup change shuffles the Red Sox lineup up quite a bit, but the most notable change is Andrew Benintendi getting the bump up to second in the batting order, opposed to his original seventh spot in the previously confirmed lineup. Be sure to check out our Starting Lineups page for the other specific lineup changes not detailed in this writing.
As reported by: Pete Abraham Other tagged players: Deven Marrero
Tyson Ross aims to get on track in matchup against exploitable White Sox lineup
Tyson Ross is set to make his fourth start of the season this afternoon against the Chicago White Sox after experiencing some mixed results in his previous three outings, allowing two earned runs or less in two starts while getting shellacked for seven earned runs in the other. Unfortunately, the only significant recent sample size we have on Ross is from 2015 where he posted an above average 25.8% strikeout rate but higher than ideal 10.2% walk rate. The strikeouts are always a nice added bonus but what really makes Ross an intriguing starting pitcher today and going forward is the 61.5% groundball rate and 23.7% hard hit rate from two seasons ago, numbers you rarely see from an above-average strikeout pitcher. The three start sample size of 2017 is still too minuscule to seriously evaluate his hard contact rates yet, but so far, the strikeouts (20.0% K%) and groundballs (38.1% GB%) have both been way down. Thankfully, Ross draws the perfect matchup begin turning things around, squaring off with a White Sox squad that has a 22.7% strikeout rate, .152 ISO, and .302 wOBA against right-handed pitching, all ranking in the bottom third of the league. The White Sox also draw the least number of walks (6.3%) and hit the second most groundballs (47.9%) against righties, both intriguing statistics that could help Ross get back on track in Sunday afternoon’s start. With that said, Ross is severely underpriced across the industry right now given his past success and today’s matchup looks to be the perfect opportunity to jump back on board at hopefully reduced ownership levels.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Little-to-no rain concerns in Sunday's MLB weather forecast
It’s a great day for baseball across the Majors this afternoon, as no game checks in with a risk grade worse than GREEN/YELLOW, meaning that barring any unforeseen pop-up storms in Chicago and Kansas City every game should play through with no rain issues. However, still be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page