DFS Alerts
Wednesday's early forecast features a clear afternoon and several trouble spots at night
The three-game early slate doesn’t have any weather concerns, but we’re expecting some precipitation in several areas on the night slate. Most notably, the MIA-STL game is currently considered ORANGE due to scattered storms and the NYM-WASH matchup is YELLOW/ORANGE for scattered showers with high coverage. There are also a pair of YELLOW games in Boston and Minneapolis. Most matchups today will be warm, humid, and calm without too much wind. The coldest matchup will be in Oakland, where the A’s will host the White Sox – it’s expected to be 69 degrees at first pitch. The warmest game in is Coors Field, where it’s expected to be 93. It’s still too far out to tell whether the inclement conditions will clear up for baseball, so be sure to check back later today for Kevin’s pre-lock update and follow him on twitter @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather
YELLOW/ORANGE in HOU-ATL game headlines Tuesday's MLB weather forecast
We may just have a small 5-game night slate on tap to wrap up the extended Fourth of July weekend, but there are still a few games to monitor weather-wise in Kevin Roth’s latest weather forecast. The primary game of concern comes to us in Atlanta for the game between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Brave, as Kevin currently has the game’s weather risk graded as a YELLOW/ORANGE for the possibility of a late start. He also can’t rule out the possibility of a mid-game game rain delay, making pitching options in this contest a tad riskier, though not entirely out of play for tournaments. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Among non-Coors bats, Houston Astros grade best via RotoGrinders Player Projections
While Coors bats (Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall) cover four of the top five overall projected bats by the RotoGrinders Player Projections, the remaining three of the top seven are Houston Astros (George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa). While Homer Bailey at Coors should be a DFS party, it may be difficult to pay up for the top bats along with expensive arms tonight. Houston bats are not cheap either, but they are a bit cheap-er. For potential value plays, which will be necessary tonight, the projections like Padres on FanDuel at special $1776 and $2017 prices if not using Kluber. Otherwise, Matt Kemp projects for 3.54 Pt/$/K on FanDuel and 2.39 Pt/$/K on DraftKings against Brad Peacock, who has allowed. He costs right around $3K on either site.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Matt Kemp, Corey Kluber
Corey Kluber (10.06) and Clayton Kershaw (9.73) projected three Ks ahead of all others tonight
Corey Kluber (10.06) and Clayton Kershaw (9.73) have a massive three plus strikeout lead on the rest of the board on tonight’s Daily K Predictor, although Yu Darvish sneaks a bit closer according to the overall RotoGrinders Player Projections. While Darvish could put up a top score on any given night, he’s been a bit inconsistent this year and his 18.1 K-BB% is actually his lowest since his rookie season (2012). As strange as it sounds, Kershaw may have the better matchup facing the Diamondbacks (71 wRC+ vs LHP) at home than Kluber has against the Padres (85 wRC+ vs RHP), who gain a DH in Cleveland. Both have a strikeout rate exceeding 33% over the last month and are the obvious top two choices at similar costs. The issue may be that to afford one, players may have to use a bat or two against the other. While Danny Duffy and Trevor Cahill are interesting arms returning from injury, neither went very deep into their rehab starts and are likely facing some sort of workload limitation tonight. Brad Peacock could be the other interesting option tonight. In seven starts, he’s struck out fewer than seven just once and only that few just once as well. A 35.9 K% (13.1 SwStr%) in his starts is plagued by a 14.1 BB% that has rarely allowed him to get through more than five innings. He has just a 1.3% Barrels/BBE on the season and faces an Atlanta lineup that doesn’t strike out much and gets back Freddie Freeman tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, Danny Duffy, Trevor Cahill, Brad Peacock Paul Goldschmidt has a 95.5 mph (7 BBEs) against Clayton Kershaw
The most interesting BvP data on the late slate might be Paul Goldschmidt’s record against Clayton Kershaw. In 44 PAs, he has homered twice (four extra-base hits) with 15 Ks. There’s nothing too outstanding about that, but on seven BBEs recorded by Statcast, Goldy has a 95.5 mph aEV against Kershaw. Three other batters on the night slate have homered twice against the pitcher they are facing tonight and they are all Texas Rangers (Shin-Soo Choo, Mike Napoli, and Adrian Beltre), who face David Price. All aEVs are between 88 and 92 mph and Choo has the most recorded BBEs with 11. Each has at least 32 PAs against Price with between three and six extra-base hits total. Napoli has struck out in 24 of 50 PAs. Among batters with at least 10 recorded BBEs against tonight’s pitcher another Ranger, Elvis Andrus, also has the highest aEV (92 mph). He has just one extra-base hit in 53 PAs though.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Shin-soo Choo, Mike Napoli, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus Joey Votto and a group of RH Astros among the night slate's hottest hitters
Joey Votto is the hottest hitter on the five game late slate and the only one with a wRC+ above 300. His 302 wRC+ over the last week only comes with a 26.3 Hard%, but four HRs and more walks than strikeouts. He’s also at Coors tonight, facing a LHP (Kyle Freeland), who allows more air contact to LHBs (34.9 GB%) with a .328 wOBA against. An incredibly expensive Votto is one of the top batters on the slate. Three of the five remaining batters on the slate with a wRC+ above 250 over the last week are RH Astros facing Sean Newcomb. Carlos Correa (299 wRC+, 50 Hard%, three HRs), Yulieski Gurriel (262 wRC+, 60 Hard%, two HRs) and Evan Gattis (254 wRC+, 55.6 Hard%, one HR) would make for an interesting stacking combination with George Springer (234 wRC+, 52.6 Hard%, two HRs). Mookie Betts (254 wRC+, 44.4 Hard%, three HRs) breaks up the Houston tribe. His appointment is with Yu Darvish tonight (RHBs .277 wOBA since last season).
Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, Yulieski Gurriel, Evan Gattis, Mookie Betts, George Springer A five game night slate has both a game at Coors and expensive pitching
The five game late slate is both pitching rich and has a game at Coors. Facing Homer Bailey, the Rockies have a 6.83 implied run line more than a run higher than the next best team, their opponent, Cincinnati (5.67). Two other offenses (Cleveland and Houston) are above five runs. In a perfect world, everyone would everyone would be able to stack Rockies with Kershaw and Kluber and everyone would win. Some of the lowest cost pitchers who might be appealing are returning from injury and may be on pitch counts (Duffy, Cahill). If we isolate Coors, the top bat on the slate might be George Springer (167 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since last season) in Atlanta against Sean Newcomb. Justin Turner (216 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP this year) faces Patrick Corbin (RHBs .364 wOBA, 37 Hard% since last season). These are not cheap bats, but cheaper than Coors. In fact, with an implied run line smack in the middle of the board (4.54), RH Dodger bats could be the stack that gets to a more expensive pitcher. Corbin has had success over the last month (2.96 ERA, 3.52 SIERA, 23.1 K%), but has faced the Phillies twice and the Padres in five starts. The Dodgers have a 123 wRC+ at home and 116 wRC+ vs LHP. Logan Forsythe (134 wRC+, .184 ISO vs LHP since last year), Chris Taylor (127 wRC+, .167 ISO vs LHP since last year) and Austin Barnes (139 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP since last year) are all solid plays in this hypothetical stack.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Logan Forsythe, Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes Four starters on night slate have strikeout rates of 29.5% or better
These guys all boast a SwStr% of at least 13.1% as well, so there won’t be a shortage of solid pitching options on the five-game slate. Clayton Kershaw (30.1% K%, 13.1% SwStr%) and Corey Kluber (33.4% K%, 15.1% SwStr%) are the top two choices and their opponents have projected run totals of 2.46 and 2.67, respectively. Kluber appears to have a higher ceiling – not only does he have better strikeout statistics, but he has a more favorable opponent; the Padres’ projected lineup has a 23.7% K% against RHP this season while the Diamondbacks have a projected lineup with a 20.9% K% against LHP. Kluber was absolutely dominant in June, averaging 10.7 strikeouts across six starts. During that stretch he gave up just one dinger while allowing a 1.26 ERA, .175 wOBA, and .055 ISO. Over the same time span, Kershaw averaged 9.5 strikeouts while posting a 2.23 ERA, .246 wOBA, and .187 ISO, although hose figures are a bit inflated by his start against the Mets on June 19th, when he gave up four homers and six earned runs. Brad Peacock (35.1% K%, 13.7% SwStr%) leads the slate in K-rate, but he’s more of a high-upside tournament play and Trevor Cahill (30.1% K%, 13.8% SwStr%) will battle a tough Cleveland lineup that currently has a projected lineup with a 17.9% K% against RHP. Yu Darvish (26.7% K%, 11.4% SwStr%) projects ahead of Peacock and Cahill in our model, but he’s only hit the 10-K mark once over the past two months and the Red Sox have a projected strikeout rate of 19.4%. He’ll also battle some hitter-friendly conditions in Arlington, where it’s expected to be 92 degrees at first pitch with 50% humidity. Be sure to check official lineups when they’re announced along with projected ownership – it would make sense to target Kluber and Kershaw in cash, but may be worth rostering one of the other three in GPPs, especially on two-pitcher sites.
Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Brad Peacock, Trevor Cahill, Yu Darvish Jimmy Nelson tossed double-digit strikeouts in four of his last seven starts
Nelson is coming off an 11-K outing against the Reds in which he threw 7.0 innings and gave up just three hits (although two of them were dingers). He’ll face the Orioles this afternoon, whose lineup has a 22.5% K% against RHP this season. The thing is, Baltimore will only play one left-handed batter this afternoon, which could limit Nelson’s upside. Nelson has posted an 31.7% against LHB, but that figure drops to 19.8% against RHB. However, Jon Lester, who leads our K Predictor on the afteroon slate, has a similar overall K% (24.8%) has a similar issue – he’s delivered a 33.0% K% against righties and a 22.5% against lefties, and will face just one LHB today. Tampa Bay’s lineup has a 22.1% K% this season. Unlike Nelson, he’s only topped seven strikeouts once over the past seven games – he has hit 10 twice in the past eight – but Vegas provides his opponent a lower implied total (3.48 vs. 4.19). Nelson arguably has the higher upside and the hotter hand, which makes him appealing on FanDuel, where he offers a savings of $1.3k from Lester, but he’s $400 more on DraftKings. Both guys are projected to have similar ownership on both sites, so there isn’t going to be too much of an advantaged gained from choosing one over the other from that perspective. However, both players do have higher projections than Chris Archer, whose expected to be the chalk on both sites – choosing one of Lester or Nelson on FD and potentially both on DK, could be an advantageous GPP strategy.
Other tagged players: Jon Lester, Chris Archer Josh Donaldson and Miguel Cabrera project as top overall bats on values this afternoon
Though Detroit has the top implied run line (5.98) on the afternoon slate by a wide margin, only Toronto has two bats among the top five overall among the RotoGrinders Player Projections today. Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista are both projected for big days against C.C. Sabathia. On the other side of that game, Aaron Judge is the top overall projected bat on the slate against J.A. Happ. Miguel Cabrera is the second best projected overall bat against Matt Cain on the slate and is joined by J.D. Martinez in the top seven. Ian Kinsler is not too fare behind. No other team has multiple batters in the top 10. Players looking for the most bang for their buck should note that Donaldson (2.42 Pt/$/K DK, 3.62 FD) projects as a top value on either site as well. Miggy Cabrera (2.29 Pt/$/K) joins him on DraftKings.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Aaron Judge, JD Martinez, Ian Kinsler Jon Lester is the top projected pitcher on the afternoon slate for both points and Ks
Jon Lester (7.44) has the top strikeout projection on the Daily K Predictor for the nine game day slate, followed by Jimmy Nelson (6.78) and Chris Archer (6.44). These are likely the top three choices on the slate. Lester is also the top pitcher via the RotoGrinders Player Projections, though Jameson Taillon sneaks in just behind him. His 7.1 SwStr% since returning does not support his 21.1 K%, but he does manage contact well (53 GB%, 3.0 Hard-Soft%) and can probably count on the Phillies to further supply some weak contact. Michael Fulmer also projects well against the Giants, but his 4.6 HR/FB may inflate his cost somewhat. Lester has a 16.9 K-BB% and has managed contact efficiently too (4.9 mph aEV and 26.1% 95+ mph EV). His 11.1 SwStr% ties a career high. He’s in a good spot against a Rays’ offense that has shown less power against LHP (12.3 HR/FB) along with a high strikeout rate (26.5%) and loses a DH. Nelson has shown massive improvement against LHBs (35.7 K-BB% last 10 starts). He faces a predominantly RH offense in Baltimore, but also one that loses a DH and has a 16.2 K-BB% vs RHP. Nelson has never had much of a problem with RHBs (15.3 K-BB%, 57.7 GB% and -2.0 Hard-Soft% over this 10 start stretch). Archer has a 21.4 K-BB% that’s ninth in the majors. He has struck out just nine of his last 52 batters, but has not dipped below a 9.8 SwStr% in a start since April. Hard contact has come back to bite him a bit in recent starts as well (five HRs last five starts), but the Cubs’ offense has under-performed this year. They do get several injured players back this afternoon though.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Jimmy Nelson, Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Michael Fulmer Albert Pujols has two HRs with a 102.8 mph aEV (five BBEs) against Kyle Gibson
Evan Longoria has four HRs against Jon Lester with no other batter having more than two against the pitcher they face this afternoon. Unfortunately, some of this information is out-dated as they haven’t faced each other since Lester moved to the NL, but there is a large enough sample there with eight extra-base hits and 22 strikeouts in 72 PAs. Albert Pujols has homered twice in 17 PAs against Kyle Gibson with a 102.8 mph aEV on five BBEs. Chris Carter, up a spot in the lineup today, possibly because he also has two HRs against J.A. Happ (15 PAs) with a 95.5 mph aEV on six BBEs. No batter/pitcher matchup with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs has an aEV above 92 mph, but Russell Martin has a 96.7 mph aEV on nine BBEs (1 HR, 24 PAs) against C.C. Sabathia.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Jon Lester, Albert Pujols, Kyle Gibson, J.A. Happ, Russell Martin, CC Sabathia Light hitting SS Orlando Arcia tops the afternoon slate with a 340 wRC+ over the last week
No batter currently confirmed for today’s lineup on the day slate has a wRC+ above 300 over the last week. Counting unconfirmed lineups as well, light hitting SS Orlando Arcia is currently the hottest bat on the afternoon slate with a 290 wRC+, 37.5 Hard%, and three HRs over the last week. Although LHBs are preferred against Ubaldo Jimenez (.309 wOBA vs RHBs since last year), he should be batting with runners on base and does not cost much. Andrew Knapp (270 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, no HRs) just passes the 10 PA. min requirement (11) and has a tough matchup against Jameson Taillon. John Jaso (258 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%, two HRs) faces Mark Leiter, but has not been a full time player. Rookie Luke Voit (256 wRC+, 55.6 Hard%, one HR) also has just 11 PAs, but he is in the lineup, batting cleanup for the Cardinals against Jose Urena (RHBs .329 wOBA since last season). J.D. Martinez (249 wRC+, 52.9 Hard%, two HRs) is already expected to be well represented in the lineup with the top implied run line this afternoon against Matt Cain.
Other tagged players: Andrew Knapp, John Jaso, Luke Voit, JD Martinez LHBs have a .388 wOBA against Ubaldo Jimenez since last season.
On the nine game day slate, Detroit has a big lead on the rest of the field with a 5.98 implied run line against Matt Cain. A predominantly RH lineup, batters from both side have pummeled Matt Cain for a .355 or better wOBA since last season. Alex Avila (180 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP this year) may be the top batter on the slate. Six more teams fall between 4.89 and 5.29 before a drop off. Aside from Detroit, LH Brewer bats at the top of the order may be most interesting against Ubaldo Jimenez. He’s maintained about average contact management against batters from either side, but LHBs have a .388 wOBA against him since last year and over .400 this year. Travis Shaw (144 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP this year) is having a breakout season and while Eric Thames (140 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP) has taken a big step backward, his numbers against RHP remain great. Ryan Braun (122 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP since last season), Eric Sogard (151 wRC+, .144 ISO vs RHP this year), Jonathan Villar (97 wRC+, .148 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Stephen Vogt (100 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since last season) are all daily fantasy friendly options if in the lineup against Ubaldo this afternoon. Brewers lefties are more of a GPP suggestion than cash as players never know what they’re going to get with Jimenez, coming off eight shutout innings (eight strikeouts) against a predominantly RH Toronto lineup, following nine runs in 2.1 innings (four walks, one strikeout) against the Rays.
Other tagged players: Alex Avila, Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Eric Sogard, Jonathan Villar, Stephen Vogt Detroit leads afternoon slate with 5.98 projected runs
Four of the Tigers’ first five batters have ISOs of .196 or better according to PlateIQ. It’s a tough order to get through, particularly for pitchers that don’t log a lot of strikeouts, as that’s the primary weakness of Detroit’s sluggers – three of those four hitters have K-rates of at least 26.0%. Matt Cain has a 13.3% K% against RHB, 12.6% against LHB and he’s posted an abysmal 4.7% SwStr% this year. As a result, he has a slate-high 88.9% Contact%, which means the meat of the Tigers’ order will be very dangerous this afternoon. When these guys make contact, it’s hard. Alex Avila leads the way with a monster 62.0% Hard% against RHP this season, J.D. Martinez is right up there with a 51.0% Hard%, and Justin Upton (42.9%) and Miguel Cabrera (45.9%) have some excellent rates as well. Then there’s Ian Kinsler (36.8%), Nick Castellanos (48.3%), Mikie Mahtook (39.6%), and Victor Martinez (43.9%). Although Cain doesn’t give up a ton of hard contact – 32.1% against RHB (17.3% Soft%), 33.6% against LHB (15.3% Soft%) – with his pitches expected to find Detroit’s bats so often, their high total makes a lot of sense. Plus, Cain has posted a .368 wOBA vs. LHB and .358 vs. RHB in 2017 and has a 5.46 SIERA – the Tigers are shaping up as a solid stack.
Other tagged players: Alex Avila, Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton, Victor Martinez, Mikie Mahtook