DFS Alerts

Top Offense Has Been Really Good Against LHP

A 13 game slate that includes Coors sees the Rockies with top implied run line (5.97), about half a run removed from the rest of the slate (Blue Jays 5.44) with four other offenses reaching a five run team total and five more above four and a half. The Rockies have been very good against LHP this year (109 wRC+, 18.7 K%) and that pushes them to the top of the board tonight. They are the only offense to feature a trio of top 10 projected bats by PlateIQ tonight against Jose Quintana. The Pirates must be thrilled with what they’ve gotten from Quintana and what they’re going to get FOR him. Maybe they should have even considered having him skip Coors to keep his numbers up. He’s struck out batters at a league average rate (21.5%) with good control (7.4 BB%) and an 86.7 mph EV. Perhaps the Pirates are contributing to his success by limiting his workload. Quintana has only completed six innings four times. Non-FIP estimators (8.2 HR/FB) are above his 3.59 ERA by about half a run (although an isolated 4.46 DRA seems to hate him). RHBs do have a .319 wOBA, but .355 xwOBA against Quintana this year and once he exits, the Pittsburgh bullpen has a bottom five 4.34 xFIP over the last 30 days. Kris Bryant (134 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP this year), Connor Joe (132 wRC+, .147 ISO) and C.J. Cron (94 wRC+, .225 ISO) are all top projected bats tonight, but every RHB in the projected Colorado lineup exceeds 100 wRC+ against southpaws this year except for Cron.

While Ronald Acuna Jr. (150 wRC+, 220 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top projected bat on the board against Patrick Corbin (RHBs .371 wOBA, .396 xwOBA), the Blue Jays are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected bats. Zack Greinke tied his season high with five strikeouts last time out, facing just 19 Guardians, only the hardest team to strike out in the league. He still only has a 12.5 K% and has gone six innings just twice this year. Greinke has also been getting barreled up pretty regularly over his last six games (10.3%) with multiple home runs in three of those starts. You can still count on him to throw strikes (4.5 BB%) and even get hitters to swing when he doesn’t (29.5 Z-O-Swing%), but there’s just not enough bat missing ability left. A 4.52 ERA is in line with a 4.51 FIP, but below all additional estimators. Although batters from either side of the plate have hit him well, he is now firmly a reverse splitter over the last several years (RHBs .331 wOBA, .389 xwOBA against him this year) and that spells additional trouble against this predominantly right-handed lineup. You may have guessed that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (127 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP this year) and George Springer (131 wRC+, .243 ISO) are projected to do the most damage.

You also may be wondering why the visiting team at Coors hasn’t shown up. It’s because they’re the Pirates (88 wRC+ vs RHP). Despite batters from either side of the plate between a .349 and .374 wOBA and xwOBA against German Marquez this year, Daniel Vogelbach (153 wRC+, .280 ISO) is the only top 10 projected Pittsburgh bat.

Some Lower Priced Pitchers in Favorable Matchups

We have an interesting dynamic on Friday where many of tonight’s top projected pitching values are also some of the most expensive and top projected arms overall. A couple of exceptions in the $8K range on FanDuel, who may be able to stand on their own are Alex Wood and Jose Urquidy. While Wood essentially broke out of his mini-slump two starts back with one run over five innings in Arizona, he put the stamp on it last time out, striking out eight of 25 Padres over seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball. He also got his ground ball rate back up to 50.2% on the season with a 17.3 K-BB% and just 6.0% Barrels/BBE. His 4.43 ERA is more than half a run above estimators ranging from a 3.23 xFIP to a 3.89 DRA due to a .326 BABIP and 68.5 LOB%. He’s only completed six innings three times though (and seven innings in two of those). The Brewers have struggled against LHP (93 wRC+, 23.0 K%), while Wood is tonight’s second best projected FD value for $8.3K. He’s a bit lower on the board on DraftKings for $300 more.

Urquidy has a 4.08 ERA with estimators even higher, due to just a 17.0 K%, while allowing 10.0% Barrels/BBE. He does somehow have five straight Quality Starts, including eight innings of three run ball (but just two strikeouts) against tonight’s opponents, the Oakland A’s (71 wRC+, 23.8 K%, 6.4 BB%, 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP). This is probably the only opponent in the league and $8K+ Urquidy would project well against, but that’s the situation he finds himself in tonight.

Your lower priced, DraftKings SP2 types are a bit more difficult tonight. Taylor Hearn ($6.1K) projects as a top point per dollar value, but was shipped out after allowing 27 runs over seven starts (33.1 IP) with a 6.3 K-BB% and 11.8% Barrels/BBE. He’s responded by striking out 16 of 40 AAA batters, but also allowing two home runs with five walks. His best season estimator is a 4.71 xFI and the Mariners have a 111 wRC+ (23.5 K%) vs LHP.

Tyler Wells ($7.4K) projects as a top five DraftKings value. We thought the Orioles were loosening the reins, but he’s now been below 90 pitches in two of his last three starts, though he’s hit 90 in two of his last four as well. At some point, the 10.6 SwStr% with a league average 15.5 SwStr% is going to register more strikeouts, but right now, nobody is clamoring for his 16.6 K% anyway. He has a 3.29 ERA and 3.39 xERA (20 popups!), but everything else is above four and we don’t really know what kind of workload he’s going to provide from start to start. Optimistically, he gets a park upgrade and faces a banged up Tampa Bay lineup with a 24.7 K% (99 wRC+) vs RHP.

Zach Plesac ($7.2K) projects as a top seven DK value. He has struck out 21 of his last 94 batters with a 13.7 SwStr%. There were all against AL Central opponents, though the Tigers registered the fewest strikeouts (three) of the four starts. We’ve seen him spike like this before, only to inevitably revert. We’ve also seen him register double digit swinging strike rates with strikeout rates below 20%, which he’s also doing again this year (1.7 K/SwStr). With a below average ground ball rate (40.6%) and 90.7 mph EV, he’s allowed 10.6% Barrels/BBE. A 5.55 xERA is about a run above all other estimators, which are all above his 3.99 ERA. Again, it’s all about matchup though. The Tigers have 69 wRC+, 24.0 K%, 6.6 BB% and 7.2 HR/FB vs RHP.

If you’re really just looking to punt, Andre Pallante ($5.7K) doesn’t miss many bats (15.1 K%), but generates tons of ground balls (63.2%) and has allowed just eight barrels (3.8%). Estimators range from a 3.75 xFIP to a 4.47 DRA, well above his 3.18 ERA (84.3 LOB%), but the Reds (86 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP) have been exposed in road games this year (78 wRC+, 8.1 HR/FB).

This Pitcher Has Hit His Stride Since Returning from the IL

A 13 game Friday night slate includes four $10K pitchers on FanDuel (just one on DraftKings) with one more reaching $9K on both sites. Brandon Woodruff seemed to have hit his stride immediately upon returning from the IL, striking out 27 of 65 batters faced with just three walks (all in his last start). That bumps his season rate up to 31.9% (25.5 K-BB%) with just a 77.4 Z-Contact% (86% is average). All estimators are at least a run below his 4.01 ERA (67.0 LOB%). The most expensive DraftKings arm ($10.2K) is only fourth most expensive on FanDuel ($10K) in a marginal matchup (Giants 102 wRC+, 23.0 K% vs RHP). Woodruff is the second best projected pitcher on the board and a top four projected value on either site. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitchers, including the top projected arm and one of the best projected values on the slate, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Mets-Cubs postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: Mets-Cubs postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Wilmer Flores (calf) scratched Thursday

Wilmer Flores (calf) scratched Thursday

J.P. Crawford scratched Thursday.

J.P. Crawford scratched Thursday.

Lineup update: Angel Zerpa will start for the Royals

Lineup update: Angel Zerpa will start for the Royals

The Surprising Stack with a Double Digit Smash%

Early PlateIQ stacking projections (which are fluid and subject to change) are showing some interesting things. First of all, no stack is currently projected for double digit ownership on FanDuel, despite the Braves and Blue Jays separating themselves a bit atop the board at 5.83 implied runs each. With Jose Ramirez being the top projected bat on the board and some min-priced bats in the lineup against Elvin Rodriguez, the Guardians project to be the most popular stack on DraftKings at near 13%, though several more teams (Twins, Rangers, Braves) aren’t too far behind in the 10% range. The Atlanta Braves are one of the two offenses that smash the slate most often in early simulations, but the other is the Texas Rangers (4.38 team run total) against Marco Gonzales (12.1 K%), who’s best estimator is a 4.63 xERA. The St Louis Cardinals project for 15% value ratings on either site, which is enough to top the FanDuel board with no other team in double digits, but only essentially puts them in a tie with Detroit stacks on DraftKings. The one thing that can and may put a snag in all this is when the Royals eventually confirm their pitching intentions, as the Toronto offense is being projected a bit conservatively until then. Without any offense dominating all three categories, what does all this chaos mean for Leverage Ratings? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Pair Tonight's Top Projected Bat With This These Top Projected Value Teammates

With very little in the way of viable low priced pitching tonight, players will likely be hunting for value in their lineups. Unfortunately, not a lot of teams stick out in terms of projected values, but PlateIQ does project a few pairs of teammates as top values on either DraftKings or Fanduel. The top projected batter on the board on either site is a Cleveland Guardian, although not the same batter. In fact, Steven Kwan (114 wRC+ vs RHP) Is the top projected value on the FanDuel board tonight ($2.5K against Elvin Rodriguez (LHBs .438 wOBA, .391 xwOBA), but is absent from the DraftKings top 10 values for $900 more. However, Nolan Jones (202 wRC+, .250 ISO) is the top projected DraftKings value and is joined by Myles Straw (67 wRC+), each costing the minimum. Rodriguez has been even worse against RHBs (.476 wOBA, .399 xwOBA). Any or all of them could be paired with the top projected overall hitter on the board, Jose Ramirez (177 wRC+, .310 ISO).

A pair of St Louis teammates also project as top FanDuel values tonight, although Tyler Anderson has been a steady pitcher for the Dodgers and St Louis is generally a negative run environment. Anderson has struck out just 14 of his last 100 batters, though he’s been above an 11.5 SwStr% in two of those starts. The Dodgers have let him off the leash and let him pitch, registering seven Quality Starts in his last 10 with a 16.3 K-BB%, mostly due to exceptional control (4.1 BB%) and contact management (86 mph EV). The result is that his 3.17 xERA nearly matches a 3.15 ERA with all other estimators a bit higher, but all below four. RHBs have registered a .295 wOBA and .314 xwOBA against him that’s in a league average range. Dylan Carlson (167 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP this season) and Albert Pujols (139 wRC+, .241 ISO) cost less than $2.5K.

Lastly, DraftKings projections suggest you can find some value in the Texas lineup against Marco Gonzales. The thing keeping his 3.24 ERA well below estimators though, is that 10 of his 44 runs have been unearned. With just a 12.1 K%, Gonzales’s best estimator is a 4.63 xERA with most of the others above five. RHBs have a .308 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against him this year. It is the bottom of the projected lineup, but Leody Taveras (165 wRC+) and Charlie Culberson (77 wRC+) cost $2.1K each.

Projections Have Little Faith in Pitcher Making His First Start Since 2020

Despite the absence of Coors on tonight’s 11 game slate, we still have the Braves and Blue Jays tied atop the head at 5.83 implied runs each, while the Guardians (5.26) are the only other team above a five run team total. Four more exceed four and a half on a pitching heavy slate. The Braves are facing Anibal Sanchez, who last took a major league mound in 2020. He’s struck out 13 of 58 AAA batters this season (9.3 SwStr%) with eight walks and seven runs allowed (six earned) over 12.2 innings. It’s unlikely the 38 year-old has very much left in the tank, but we’ll see. The Blue Jays will host the Royals and whoever is left eligible to pitch once they get there, which likely includes some AAA arms among the mix. We don’t even know for sure yet.

The odd thing is that neither team dominates hitter projections tonight, though the Braves place a pair, Ronald Acuna Jr. (117 wRC+, .137 ISO vs RHP this year) and Matt Olson (130 wRC+, .248 ISO), among the top 10 against Sanchez. Jose Ramirez (177 wRC+, .310 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board against Elvin Rodriguez, who has struck out just 16 of 96 batters with nine walks and as many home runs surrendered. He’s allowed 12.9% Barrels/BBE, while rocking the 93.6 mph EV. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him, though Ramirez is not joined by any of his Cleveland teammates atop the projections tonight.

In fact, the top 10 hitter projections reads mostly like a list of this year’s MVP candidates. The Houston Astros (4.52 run team total) are the only other offense with multiple top 10 projected bats. Reid Detmers has struck out 19 of his last 61 batters and 14 of 22 AAA batters in between, but has done this with very little increase to his swinging strike rate (9.3% last three starts, 8.9% season). On the season, he’s still registering a mere 11.3 K-BB% with 9.4% Barrels/BBE. He did appear to throw many more sliders (33%) in two of his starts, but just 11% against the Royals. Ironically, a 14.1 HR/FB nearly balances out a .200 BABIP and his 4.22 ERA isn’t so far removed from estimators ranging from a 4.47 SIERA to a 4.97 FIP. Batters from the right-hand side have a .319 wOBA, but .372 xwOBA against him this year and he’s projected to face eight right-handed Astros tonight. However, it’s Kyle Tucker (136 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP this year) and Jose Altuve (212 wRC+, .418 ISO) who PlateIQ projections expect to do the most damage. Detmers has held LHBs to a .200 wOBA, but .296 xwOBA.

The Wind is Blowing in at Wrigley Plus Other Strong Mid-Range Matchups

In addition to all of the $10K/$9K pitchers tonight, we also have several decent arms in some high upside spots, who project as potentially great values. Considering those who may stand on their own on a single pitcher site, old control problems reappeared for Triston McKenzie last time out, walking five Royals with just four strikeouts. It seems to be an isolated incident as he’s only walked more than two one other time and no more than one in each of his previous four starts. He’s had to sacrifice some strikeouts (22.9%) and still has major issues in his contact profile (32 GB%, 91.2 mph EV, 11.6% Barrels/BBE), which runs his estimators a range between a 4.08 SIERA and a 4.57 FIP, all more than half a run above his 3.47 ERA (.217 BABIP, 82.2 LOB%). What we love here is the matchup, though. The Tigers have a 70 wRC+, 23.8 K%, 6.7 BB% and 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP this year. None of McKenzie’s previous issues should apply. He’s $9.3K on FanDuel, but exactly $1K less on DraftKings, projecting as the fourth best pitcher overall, but the second best value on either site.

Carlos Carrasco doesn’t have a Quality Start in his last four, but after being roughed up by Houston twice in a row (he left one start early with a back issue), he’s allowed just three runs over his last 11.1 innings with 13 strikeouts. His overall body of work (17.7 K-BB%) has been much better than a 4.55 ERA seems to suggest with a .344 BABIP being responsible for most of the unwarranted damage. While Carrasco hasn’t been extremely consistent and has just two Quality Starts in his last 10, the production really hasn’t been as bad as the results with all estimators more than half a run lower. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley tonight and the Cubs have a 100 wRC+ with a 23.0 K% vs RHP. Carrasco is a top seven projected arm and top four projected value on either site.

Kutter Crawford has struck out 24 of 77 batters with seven walks and three home runs (just two barrels), since returning to the majors a month ago. That’s some quality work, though his velocity and swinging strike rate (10.7%) are actually down in a starting role. On the season (30 IP), he has a 3.69 SIERA and DRA and no other estimators below four, but none within a quarter of a run of his 4.50 ERA. The fact that he hasn’t hit 90 pitches or six innings yet might hurt him on FanDuel, but for less than $7K on either site, he still projects as the top value on the board in a great matchup with a substantial park upgrade. The Rays have a 98 wRC+ and 24.7 K% vs RHP, but missing several key bats, tonight’s lineup could be even worse than that. Six of nine projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP this year.

The only negative about this board is the lack of viable, low priced SP2 options on DraftKings. Keegan Thompson has a 30.7 K% over his last five starts, most recently striking out eight Dodgers. It’s a bit odd that he’s done this by featuring his four-seam fastball more often, but he has a number of pitches in his arsenal above a 20% whiff rate now, so perhaps there’s something new here. Although he’s not throwing it a ton, the strikeout rate spike started around the time he began utilizing a “sweeper”. Season estimators range from a 3.53 xERA to a 4.06 xFIP, but that may bit outdated if this improvement is for real. You could take a chance on that in GPPs, as he costs just $5.8 and the wind is blowing in at Wrigley, but the matchup is far from ideal (Mets 113 wRC+, 19.8 K% vs RHP).

Overworked Bullpen Could Mean Larger Workload for this Stud Pitcher

A sizeable Thursday night 11 game slate features five pitchers above the $10K price point on FanDuel, though only one on DraftKings. While no other pitcher reaches $9K on both sites, several are in the $8K range with some upside as well. Corbin Burnes is the most expensive pitcher on the board, costing more than $11K on FanDuel and $10.6K on DraftKings, nearly $1K more than any other pitcher. He owns the top strikeout rate on the board (32.4%) and has at least eight in six of his last eight starts. He’s thrown five straight Quality Starts and has walked just 6.3%, allowing 5.7% Barrels/BBE on the season. With 12 of his 14 barrels leaving the yard, a 2.68 xERA is his second lowest estimator, while a 2.99 FIP is his highest. All run a bit above his 2.20 ERA with a .243 BABIP and 85.7 LOB%, but nobody’s complaining about estimators below three. Also, with the Milwaukee bullpen heavily used yesterday, he could be pushed even further in a close game in San Francisco (103 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs RHP). Burnes is your top projected pitcher on Thursday night, but the high price point makes him just the sixth best projected value. For more on tonight’s loaded pitching board, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Jesús Sánchez scratched Thursday.

Jesús Sánchez scratched Thursday.

Nick Senzel (back) scratched Wednesday

Nick Senzel (back) scratched Wednesday

With of the Two Big Offenses Project Better Tonight?

We have a very interesting nine gamer on Wednesday night with the Yankees and Padres virtually tied atop the slate with six run team totals and nobody else even close. With the Padres not being priced up nearly enough for Coors on either site, but especially DraftKings, current ownership projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) suggest about one-quarter of all lineups will include San Diego stacks, almost twice as popular as Yankee stacks are projected. Over on FanDuel, the Padres still project most popularly, but with a much narrower lead over the Yankees and no other stack in double digits. Simulations suggest that the Padres may also smash the slate slightly more often than the Yankees, but again, those are your top two teams, each within a couple of points of 15%. You can say a lot of things about the Yankees, but you can’t call them cheap. The Padres once again top value projections, still by a narrower margin over the Cubs on FanDuel, but much more overwhelmingly so on DraftKings, where they currently project for more than four times the value of any other stack. One of these teams projects better Leverage Rating than the other, but neither is a top three rated stack tonight. To find out who is and why that may be, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.