DFS Alerts
Jonathan India (thigh) scratched Sunday
Jonathan India (thigh) scratched Sunday
As reported by: Jamie Ramsey via Twitter
The start of Angels-Braves will be delayed Friday due to rain
Game update: The start of Angels-Braves will be delayed Friday due to rain
As reported by: Kris Willis via Twitter The start of Padres-Mets will be delayed Friday due to rain
Game update: The start of Padres-Mets will be delayed Friday due to rain
As reported by: Tim Healey via Twitter J.D. Martinez scratched Friday
J.D. Martinez scratched Friday
As reported by: Christopher Smith via Twitter The Offense That is Currently Dominating Stacking Projections
Expensive pitching plus a lot of projected value in the Arizona lineup (we’ll come back to that again soon), gives Diamondbacks’ stacks the top ownership projection tonight on DraftKings with a current 14.57 Own% (PlateIQ projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), which separates them a bit from the stack projected to be second most popular tonight (Brewers 10.77 Own%). The stacks are flip-flopped on FanDuel, where neither stack reaches a double digit ownership projection, though they are the only two stacks currently above a 7.0 Own%. Arizona has 4.73 run team total that’s impressively fourth on the board, but despite the three other offenses ahead of them, Arizona stacks are also the only stack currently smashing the slate in more than 10% of simulations. There’s a bit of separation between Diamondback and Yankee stacks with about three points of Smash% between them atop the board. The one category where Arizona absolutely dominates is Value%, as they currently project for twice as much value as any other stack on either site. While it’s pretty clear that Arizona is currently dominating these early stacking projections, another great value stack may be a great pivot, while an offense with a higher implied run line projects as a better rated stack on either site. For more, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
The Lineup Projections Believe is Loaded with Right-Handed Value
Players are very likely paying up for pitching tonight, so it’s good news that projections for both sites suggest there’s a bit of value to be found in one of the top offense tonight. The Philadelphia Phillies have the third highest implied run line on tonight’s board (4.77) against Justin Steele. Batters from either side of the plate are within two points of a .300 wOBA against him this year, but Statcast widens that gap to a .256 xwOBA for LHBs and a .320 xwOBA for RHBs. Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins are two of the top projected bats on the board tonight, but neither is cheap, especially on DraftKings. However, Matt Vierling (112 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP this year) costs less than $2.5K on either site, while Yairo Munoz (150 wRC+, .278 ISO) costs the minimum on DraftKings. An even more attractive stacking option may be Nick Castellanos, who costs $2.5K on FanDuel, though his power has disappeared against southpaws this year (103 wRC+, .095 ISO) and this is confirmed by an xwOBA that’s only a single point higher than his .319 wOBA with the platoon advantage in 2022.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 4.73 team run total that’s just behind the Phillies and fourth on a 26 team board, but PlateIQ projections suggest there’s a ton of value to be found in this lineup. A 25.6 K% with an ERA and FIP in the low fours is nothing to write home about, but respectable is something the Nationals will certainly take from Patrick Corbin at this point and that’s what he’s been over the last month. His season strikeout rate is still just 19.4% with a 90.7 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE with all estimators above four, but below his 5.87 ERA. In fact, for less than $6K, Corbin may be a GPP worthy play on DraftKings, but his 5.84 xERA nearly matches the actual results this season and RHBs still have a .374 wOBA (.401 xwOBA) against him this year. For $2.2K or less on FanDuel, Carson Kelly (85 wRC+, .190 ISO), Jordan Luplow (138 wRC+, .371 ISO) and Jake McCarthy (137 wRC+, .179 ISO) are the top three projected values on the board, joined as a top 10 projected value by Ketel Marte (145 wRC+, .183 ISO), who is also a top 10 projected bat overall at $3K. McCarthy and Luplow are also top five projected DraftKings values for less than $3K.
On FanDuel, Rowdy Tellez (114 wRC+, .264 ISO) also doubles as a top projected bat and value against Antonio Senzatela (LHBs .385 wOBA, .368 xwOBA this year), while Jace Peterson (111 wRC+, .193 ISO) is also a top 10 projected value for $2.3K, making Milwaukee stacks a bit easier tonight. They have the second highest implied run line on the board at 4.85.
Top Projected Bat Elevates Most His Contact Against Same-Handed Pitching
A 13 game Friday night board includes a lot of hitter friendly weather, but no Coors and perhaps even more good pitching does not feature a single offense eclipsing five implied runs at this point in the afternoon, although the Yankees are essentially right there (4.99) in a more pitcher friendly Baltimore park this year. Six more offenses exceed four and a half run team totals tonight. The result is that several offenses include pairs of teammates among the top projected bats, starting with the top projected bat on the board in Aaron Judge (185 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP this year) against Tyler Wells, who has recent pitch counts all over the map, so who knows what the Orioles will do with him in the second half of the season, but even with a matching 6.1 BB% and Barrels/BBE, a 17.2 K% is hardly worth chasing with an unstable workload. A 3.38 ERA nearly matches a 3.41 xERA, but other non-FIP estimators are more than a run higher (.242 BABIP, 8.3 HR/FB). Working against him tonight is a stark reverse split (RHBs .313 wOBA, .335 xwOBA). Giancarlo Stanton (136 wRC+, .293 ISO) is the other right-handed big bopper in this lineup and projects as a top 10 bat alongside Judge tonight.
The Milwaukee Brewers have the second highest team run total on the board (4.85) at home against Antonio Senzatela. In addition to not missing many bats (12.3 K%, 7.1 SwStr%, 92.1 Z-Contact%), Senzatela is no longer generating ground balls at a much above average rate either this year (44.8%). The surprise is that he’s still continued to suppress barrels (5.3%) with a 90.3 mph EV and 46.2% 95+ mph EV. Yet, a 5.92 xERA is still his highest estimator, more than two runs above a 3.86 FIP (8.3 HR/FB), which is his only one below four. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .365 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, though it’s a pair of left-handed Brewers that PlateIQ projections, which are fluid and updated throughout the day, currently favor in Christian Yelich (109 wRC+, .144 ISO) and Rowdy Tellez (114 wRC+, .264 ISO). Both are top six projected values on either site against Senzatela. However, RHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year and Willy Adames (114 wRC+, .256 ISO) could be undervalued in this spot.
Kyle Smasher…er..Schwarber is the second best projected hitter on the board tonight, as he’s hit same-handed pitching very well this year (107 wRC+, .219 ISO) and it’s Philly. Justin Steele can occasionally spike a high strikeout total (eight or more four times), but his biggest value is in generating lots of weak (87.1 mph EV) ground balls (51%), helping to erase some of his 10.3 BB%. His 4.15 ERA almost perfectly matches his highest estimator, a 4.13 SIERA. LHBs do have a .300 wOBA, but just a .256 xwOBA against him this year. LHBs have put exactly half their contact on the ground against Steele this year, but Schwarber has elevated an even higher rate of his contact against LHP (52.1%), which helps explain this lofty projection, along with a 4.77 implied run line that’s third on the board for the home team. Also projected among the top 10 tonight is Rhys Hoskins (170 wRC+, .304 ISO vs LHP this year). RHBs have a .302 wOBA, but .320 xwOBA against Steele this season.
Great Matchup Gives This Pitcher a Top Projection For Less than $10K
Tonight’s board is loaded with top end pitching, but the top projected pitcher on the board (by a fraction of a point) can be rostered for less than $10K tonight (less than $9K on DraftKings). Charlie Morton had been absolutely rolling, allowing two runs or fewer in seven innings in four of five starts with his season strikeout rate up to 27.3% before running into the Mets last time out. They homered three times against him on five barrels (one-third of contact), striking out in six of 24 PAs. Morton still has a 27.1 K%, but a 15.3 HR/FB and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. The home run rate wouldn’t be so bad for a traditionally ground ball pitcher, but Morton has just a 37.6 GB% this year. A 4.45 ERA is still well above estimators, but with an xERA and FIP still exceeding four. He also pitches in a hitter friendly park, but that’s where the bad news ends tonight. His top of the board projection has a lot to do with the matchup, as the Angels come to town without Mike Trout. This is an offense with a 97 wRC+ and board high 27.3 K% vs RHP this year. No other offense in play tonight has a strikeout split above 26%. Morton is not only the top projected overall arm on the board, but the top projected value on either site by a wider margin.
In fact, you’re probably not playing many pitchers who cost less than Morton on a single pitcher site. One exception may be Braxton Garrett in Pittsburgh. Striking out 11 of 24 Pirates in his last start and producing a 3.70 ERA that’s within one-third of a run of all of his estimators behind a 17.2 K-BB%, Garrett is making people take notice. His velocity is up about a mile per hour, but inconsistently so, and some of his pitches are moving differently. The oddest part of all this is that he’s not getting any zone whiffs (91.8 Z-Contact%), but lots of chasing (21.5 Z-O-Swing%). The Pirates have an 85 wRC+ with the second highest strikeout split on the board (26.0%) against LHP. Garrett is less than $8K on either site, projecting as the sixth best FanDuel value, though more middle of the board on DraftKings. Projections may have not yet caught up with the changes in his arsenal though.
Considering some cheaper top projected values, who may fit into your SP2 slot on DraftKings, Spencer Howard projects as the second best point per dollar value on the board. His major league work has been awful this year. He has completed five innings in two straight starts, but has walked seven and struck out just six of 65 batters since returning with just a 4.1 SwStr%, while his velocity has dropped in each start. Include his April numbers and you’re looking at an 18.6 K%, 6.8 SwStr%, 93.1 Z-Contact%, 44.1 Z-O-Swing%, 92.2 mph EV and 12.9% Barrels/BBE without an estimator below four and a half. However, he did have a 30.8 K% in 46.1 AAA innings this year and is in Oakland tonight, which is a pitcher friendly park, inhabited by an offense with a 71 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs RHP, while Howard is nearly free ($5.1K) on DK.
Kyle Gibson owns just a 17.1 K% over his last nine starts, dropping him to 19.8% on the season, but he also has six Quality Starts in that span because he’s not walking many either (6.4% season). His 46 GB% is a career low though and probably not what they want in Philly. His 4.35 ERA is above, but within half a run of all estimators. He lacks upside in a tough park, but is also cheap ($6.8K DK) in a favorable matchup (Cubs 98 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP), projecting as the second best DK value costing less than $8.8K.
Lucas Giolito has surrendered just a single home run and three barrels (4.6%) over his last four starts (86.2 mph EV). His fastball rate is down to 40% over this span with his K-BB increasing to 20.6%. The strikeout rate has been strong all season (27.1%), but the walk rate has been average (8.5%), while he’s still at a double digit barrel rate (10.4%). If 60% sliders and changeups is what it takes to drop his 4.69 more towards contact neutral estimators a full run lower, then he seems to be embracing the idea. He costs less than $8K, but the Guardians have a 107 wRC+ with a board low 17.7 K% vs RHP. Still a decent DK SP2 choice, he costs more than $9.1K on FanDuel, where he projects as a much more marginal value.
Lastly, though he doesn’t project very well, Patrick Corbin costs less than $6K and hasn’t been terrible recently. A 25.6 K% with an ERA and FIP in the low fours is nothing to write home about, but respectable is something the Nationals will certainly take from Patrick Corbin at this point and that’s what he’s been over the last month. His season strikeout rate is still just 19.4% with a 90.7 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE with all estimators above four, but below his 5.87 ERA. The Diamondbacks have just a 92 wRC+ and 22.5 K% vs LHP this year.
This Pitcher Has Been on Fire Since Return From The IL
We open the second half (yesterday’s small slate does not count) with a 13 game board, which features five $10K pitchers, along with another who is $9.8K on each site. The most expensive arm on the board is Max Scherzer, who reaches $11.5K on FanDuel and is still the highest priced DraftKings arm for $1.1K less. He has struck out 31 of 72 batters with a 19.7 SwStr% since returning from the IL. Scherzer has a 29.5 K-BB% and 79.4 Z-Contact% on the season. While he’s allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE, that’s more a function of his 29.3 GB%. Only 32.9% of his contact has reached a 95+ mph EV (otherwise known as hard hit by Statcast). None of his estimators reach three. Weather may make Citi Field a little more hitter friendly tonight, but the Padres have a 97 wRC+, 21.9 K% and 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP. That last number is the third lowest split on the board tonight. However, Scherzer is currently just the third best projected arm on a loaded pitching board (though the top three are extremely close), but still a top seven projected value on either site. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitching, including one who projects slightly better than Scherzer and a strong potential pivot, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Reds-Cardinals postponed Sunday due to inclement weather
Game update: Reds-Cardinals postponed Sunday due to inclement weather
As reported by: Katie Woo via Twitter Tigers-Guardians postponed Sunday due to inclement weather
Game update: Tigers-Guardians postponed Sunday due to inclement weather
As reported by: the Cleveland Guardians via Twitter Mike Trout (back) scratched Saturday
Mike Trout (back) scratched Saturday
As reported by: Erica Weston via Twitter Cheap Bats in Favorable Matchups
With most of the usable pitching tonight being high priced, players are likely to be in the market for value bats and both sites believe you can find a lot of that in the visiting team at Coors tonight. It’s the Pirates, but they still have a five run team total against German Marquez, against whom batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .349 and .374 against this year. Visiting bats are not being priced up for Coors this year and that’s especially true on DraftKings, where four of the top 10 projected values are Pirates. Jake Marisnick (132 wRC+ vs RHP this year), Yoshi Tsutsugo (56 wRC+) and Josh VanMeter (81 wRC+) all cost less than $3K, while Daniel Vogelbach (153 wRC+, .280 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and value for $3.4K on DK and $3.2K on FanDuel, where VanMeter is just $2.6K, projected to hit leadoff.
DraftKings actually projects the top two values on the board coming out of Cleveland tonight, where Nolan Jones (196 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Myles Straw (66 wRC+) both cost the minimum. Drew Hutchison has struck out seven of 82 batters over four starts with six barrels (8.6%) and a 90.4 mph EV. His 3.66 ERA is about three-quarters of a run below his FIP (4.48), which is about three-quarters of a run below his xFIP (5.13) during his stay in the rotation.
DK projections also see plenty of value in the opposing lineup despite Zach Plesac being a top projected value tonight. It’s all about pricing and it’s low on either side of this matchup, while LHBs own a .322 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against Plesac this year. Akil Baddoo (6 wRC+ in a small sample), Jeimer Candelario (69 wRC+) and Victor Reyes (109 wRC+) all cost less than $2.5K. They’re not good (69 wRC+ vs RHP as a team), but they’re incredibly cheap.
FanDuel also projects a pair of top five values in the St Louis lineup against Hunter Greene, who has a 28.9 K%, but also a 10.0 BB% and 10.4% Barrels/BBE. While 22 of his 23 barrels leaving the park is bound to regress, especially in a park like St Louis, LHBs do have a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .320 against him. Dylan Carlson (83 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (100 wRC+) are within $100 of $2.5K each.
Lastly, a pair of White Sox are also top 10 projected values against Devin Smeltzer, who has allowed 13 home runs on 15 barrels (10.9%) over his last eight starts and has surrendered a .319 wOBA (.346 xwOBA) to RHBs this year. Yoan Moncada (64 wRC+) and A.J. Pollock (145 wRC+, .271 ISO) cost less than $2.5K on FanDuel.
Top Offense Has Been Really Good Against LHP
A 13 game slate that includes Coors sees the Rockies with top implied run line (5.97), about half a run removed from the rest of the slate (Blue Jays 5.44) with four other offenses reaching a five run team total and five more above four and a half. The Rockies have been very good against LHP this year (109 wRC+, 18.7 K%) and that pushes them to the top of the board tonight. They are the only offense to feature a trio of top 10 projected bats by PlateIQ tonight against Jose Quintana. The Pirates must be thrilled with what they’ve gotten from Quintana and what they’re going to get FOR him. Maybe they should have even considered having him skip Coors to keep his numbers up. He’s struck out batters at a league average rate (21.5%) with good control (7.4 BB%) and an 86.7 mph EV. Perhaps the Pirates are contributing to his success by limiting his workload. Quintana has only completed six innings four times. Non-FIP estimators (8.2 HR/FB) are above his 3.59 ERA by about half a run (although an isolated 4.46 DRA seems to hate him). RHBs do have a .319 wOBA, but .355 xwOBA against Quintana this year and once he exits, the Pittsburgh bullpen has a bottom five 4.34 xFIP over the last 30 days. Kris Bryant (134 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP this year), Connor Joe (132 wRC+, .147 ISO) and C.J. Cron (94 wRC+, .225 ISO) are all top projected bats tonight, but every RHB in the projected Colorado lineup exceeds 100 wRC+ against southpaws this year except for Cron.
While Ronald Acuna Jr. (150 wRC+, 220 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top projected bat on the board against Patrick Corbin (RHBs .371 wOBA, .396 xwOBA), the Blue Jays are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected bats. Zack Greinke tied his season high with five strikeouts last time out, facing just 19 Guardians, only the hardest team to strike out in the league. He still only has a 12.5 K% and has gone six innings just twice this year. Greinke has also been getting barreled up pretty regularly over his last six games (10.3%) with multiple home runs in three of those starts. You can still count on him to throw strikes (4.5 BB%) and even get hitters to swing when he doesn’t (29.5 Z-O-Swing%), but there’s just not enough bat missing ability left. A 4.52 ERA is in line with a 4.51 FIP, but below all additional estimators. Although batters from either side of the plate have hit him well, he is now firmly a reverse splitter over the last several years (RHBs .331 wOBA, .389 xwOBA against him this year) and that spells additional trouble against this predominantly right-handed lineup. You may have guessed that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (127 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP this year) and George Springer (131 wRC+, .243 ISO) are projected to do the most damage.
You also may be wondering why the visiting team at Coors hasn’t shown up. It’s because they’re the Pirates (88 wRC+ vs RHP). Despite batters from either side of the plate between a .349 and .374 wOBA and xwOBA against German Marquez this year, Daniel Vogelbach (153 wRC+, .280 ISO) is the only top 10 projected Pittsburgh bat.
Some Lower Priced Pitchers in Favorable Matchups
We have an interesting dynamic on Friday where many of tonight’s top projected pitching values are also some of the most expensive and top projected arms overall. A couple of exceptions in the $8K range on FanDuel, who may be able to stand on their own are Alex Wood and Jose Urquidy. While Wood essentially broke out of his mini-slump two starts back with one run over five innings in Arizona, he put the stamp on it last time out, striking out eight of 25 Padres over seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball. He also got his ground ball rate back up to 50.2% on the season with a 17.3 K-BB% and just 6.0% Barrels/BBE. His 4.43 ERA is more than half a run above estimators ranging from a 3.23 xFIP to a 3.89 DRA due to a .326 BABIP and 68.5 LOB%. He’s only completed six innings three times though (and seven innings in two of those). The Brewers have struggled against LHP (93 wRC+, 23.0 K%), while Wood is tonight’s second best projected FD value for $8.3K. He’s a bit lower on the board on DraftKings for $300 more.
Urquidy has a 4.08 ERA with estimators even higher, due to just a 17.0 K%, while allowing 10.0% Barrels/BBE. He does somehow have five straight Quality Starts, including eight innings of three run ball (but just two strikeouts) against tonight’s opponents, the Oakland A’s (71 wRC+, 23.8 K%, 6.4 BB%, 8.4 HR/FB vs RHP). This is probably the only opponent in the league and $8K+ Urquidy would project well against, but that’s the situation he finds himself in tonight.
Your lower priced, DraftKings SP2 types are a bit more difficult tonight. Taylor Hearn ($6.1K) projects as a top point per dollar value, but was shipped out after allowing 27 runs over seven starts (33.1 IP) with a 6.3 K-BB% and 11.8% Barrels/BBE. He’s responded by striking out 16 of 40 AAA batters, but also allowing two home runs with five walks. His best season estimator is a 4.71 xFI and the Mariners have a 111 wRC+ (23.5 K%) vs LHP.
Tyler Wells ($7.4K) projects as a top five DraftKings value. We thought the Orioles were loosening the reins, but he’s now been below 90 pitches in two of his last three starts, though he’s hit 90 in two of his last four as well. At some point, the 10.6 SwStr% with a league average 15.5 SwStr% is going to register more strikeouts, but right now, nobody is clamoring for his 16.6 K% anyway. He has a 3.29 ERA and 3.39 xERA (20 popups!), but everything else is above four and we don’t really know what kind of workload he’s going to provide from start to start. Optimistically, he gets a park upgrade and faces a banged up Tampa Bay lineup with a 24.7 K% (99 wRC+) vs RHP.
Zach Plesac ($7.2K) projects as a top seven DK value. He has struck out 21 of his last 94 batters with a 13.7 SwStr%. There were all against AL Central opponents, though the Tigers registered the fewest strikeouts (three) of the four starts. We’ve seen him spike like this before, only to inevitably revert. We’ve also seen him register double digit swinging strike rates with strikeout rates below 20%, which he’s also doing again this year (1.7 K/SwStr). With a below average ground ball rate (40.6%) and 90.7 mph EV, he’s allowed 10.6% Barrels/BBE. A 5.55 xERA is about a run above all other estimators, which are all above his 3.99 ERA. Again, it’s all about matchup though. The Tigers have 69 wRC+, 24.0 K%, 6.6 BB% and 7.2 HR/FB vs RHP.
If you’re really just looking to punt, Andre Pallante ($5.7K) doesn’t miss many bats (15.1 K%), but generates tons of ground balls (63.2%) and has allowed just eight barrels (3.8%). Estimators range from a 3.75 xFIP to a 4.47 DRA, well above his 3.18 ERA (84.3 LOB%), but the Reds (86 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP) have been exposed in road games this year (78 wRC+, 8.1 HR/FB).