DFS Alerts

Far Too Cheap For the Environment

On top of dominating the board in terms of overall point totals, the Yankees and Padres are so far ahead of the rest of the pack tonight that they dominate value projections as well, especially the Padres, who are not priced sufficiently for Coors on either site. Luke Voit (120 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP this season) is not only a top five projected bat, but the top projected value on FanDuel ($3.1K) and also a top 10 projected value on DraftKings ($3.8K). In fact, each of the top three projected point per dollar values on DraftKings are Padres. Left-handed Padres to be more specific, as batters from that side have a .351 wBOA and .365 xwOBA against Chad Kuhl this year. Eric Hosmer (88 wRC+, .112 ISO), Nomar Mazara (122 wRC+, .131 ISO) and C.J. Abrams (105 wRC+, .119 ISO) all cost $2.1K or less on DK, which is simply mind-blowing.

The Yankees are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected values on FanDuel and one of them is the top projected bat on the board because even for $4.2K, Aaron Judge (143 wRC+, .333 ISO) just projects that well against Mike Minor (RHBs .432 wOBA, .398 xwOBA this season). Josh Donaldson (82 wRC+, .204 ISO) also pulls double duty on both lists for $3.1K. Kyle Higashioka (70 wRC+, .170 ISO) costs $2.4K. Minor has been much better against LHBs (.291 wOBA, .256 ISO) and Joey Gallo (13 wRC+, .070 ISO) has struck out in more than half his plate appearances against LHP this year, but projections still see value in his longer term body of work for just $2.5K.

You may have to dip down to the bottom of the order, but DraftKings finds some value in a pair of min-priced Guardians against Lucas Giolito, who has over a 100 point reverse split this season. Myles Straw (65 wRC+) probably isn’t going to barrel him up, but you can see the value here, when RHBs have a .416 wOBA against Giolito this year. Nolan Jones (242 wRC+, .294 ISO) bats from the left side (.266 wOBA vs Giolito), but has simply been tearing the cover off the ball since being called up.

Top Five Projected Bats Belong to Either of These Two Offenses

Last night, the ground baller, Graham Ashcraft, held the Yankee lineup in check (three runs), but tonight, it’s Mike Minor, who actually set a season high with eight strikeouts last time out. He’s only struck out more than four twice in seven starts, but the Reds are content to let him eat innings in hopes of showcasing him for a trade. He’s faced at least 24 batters in five straight with at least six innings in four of those, yet only one Quality Start to show for it. Batters are not only making contact (91.1 Z-Contact%), but good contact (33.1 GB%, 12.3% Barrels/BBE). While the 20.0 HR/FB should regress, especially if he gets out of Cincinnati, RHBs, especially, have been having a great time against him (.432 wOBA, .398 xwOBA). Non-FIP estimators are below his 6.63 ERA, but all are above four and a half. Giancarlo Stanton (119 wRC+, .233 ISO) is the third best projected bat on the board and they are joined by Anthony Rizzo (129 wRC+, .276 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (82 wRC+, .204 ISO) among the top 10. LHBs have just a .291 wOBA (.256 xwOBA) against Minor this year though.

It certainly makes sense that the Padres are the only other offense responsible for multiple top 10 projected bats. In fact, three of the top five are Padres against Chad Kuhl, who’s only Quality Start over his last six outings was a complete game three-hitter against the Dodgers and he still has an ERA and estimators well above four over this span. He’s down to just an 8.0 K-BB% on the season (5.1% last 10 starts) that puts him in a hole, even if with a fairly moderate contact profile (89.8 mph EV, 6.9% Barrels/BBE). His 4.02 ERA is actually more than a quarter of a run below all estimators. He does have about a 50 point split (LHBs .351 wOBA, .365 xwOBA – RHBs .279 wOBA, .305 xwOBA), though Manny Machado (151 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP this season) and Luke Voit (120 wRC+, .233 ISO) are the top projected Padres, along with Jake Cronenworth (106 wRC+, .158 ISO).

Don't Let This Thriving Pitcher Get Lost on a Loaded Board

Among the multitude of studs on the mound tonight, Jon Gray could get lost in the shuffle, but he’s been pitching about as well as any of them and has the best matchup on the board. Gray is up to a 26.5 K% on the season and even more impressive 22.5 K-BB% over his last eight starts with just eight barrels allowed (6.4%). He has been smacked around for four home runs and five barrels over his last two starts, but all estimators are more than one-third of a run below his 4.03 ERA on the season. Facing the A’s (71 wRC+, 23.6 K%, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP) in Texas, which is a pitcher friendly park with the roof closed, Gray projects as the top value on the board on DraftKings for $7.7K and third best on FanDuel for $1.3K more.

Gray may be the only pitcher not costing more than $9K that players would consider using on a single pitcher site, but Justin Steele has struck out 25 of his last 73 batters, which is his best rolling three game total this season. However, he’s also walked seven of his last 49 and has completed six innings just four times all year. He has a 12.0 K-BB%, but will occasionally spike strikeouts and/or walks. What he does more consistently is generate ground balls (51.1%) and suppress barrels. He’s allowed just six all season (2.7%) and three of them came in one game. That’s probably not sustainable, but still extremely impressive, generating a 3.31 xERA and 3.42 FIP that are his only estimators more than half a run below a 4.13 ERA. Steele is facing the red hot Orioles, who have just a 91 wRC+ and 25.5 K% vs LHP, while tonight is a “wind blowing in” night at Wrigley. At $7.6K, Steele projects as the second best FanDuel value and wouldn’t be a crazy GPP selection. However, he costs $1.6K more on DraftKings.

Should you need a cheaper SP2 arm on DraftKIngs, Aaron Civale is the top point per dollar projection for less than $7K. He produced just his second Quality Start of the season and first of seven innings his last time out in Kansas City (six strikeouts). He’s also up to a 15.3 K-BB%, which generates his first estimator below four this season (3.94 SIERA). The contact profile is still an issue (4.63 xERA), but look for substantial regression in his 6.28 ERA (.346 BABIP, 57.9 LOB%). The White Sox have just an 89 wRC+ and 7.6 HR/FB vs RHP, but don’t strike out a lot (20.2%). Civale costs just $5.4K.

Josh Wincowski, Ross Stripling and Paul Blackburn all project just above 2.0 P/$ and cost between $6-6.5K. Wincowski’s 6.6 K-BB% through six starts makes him a prime candidate to exit the rotation once they’re a little bit healthier next week. While he is generating 53.5% of his contact on the ground, he’s still allowed eight barrels (7.8%), while all estimators within half a run of his 4.35 ERA. Only a 3.86 xERA dips below four, but the Rays (99 wRC+) strike out 24.8% of the time against RHP and tonight’s lineup, maybe even more than that. Stripling has only completed six innings in two of his 12 starts. His strengths have been great control (5.1 BB%) and an above average ground ball rate (47.6%), but he’s not missing a lot of bats (20 K%) and surrendering too many barrels (9.2%). With only five of his 19 barrels leaving the yard, a 3.08 FIP is his only estimator below a 3.34 ERA, while a 4.16 xERA is his highest with most others a bit less than half a run above actual results. The Phillies (99 wRC+, 22.4 K%) are missing some starters and Toronto plays slightly pitcher friendly in recent seasons. Blackburn is generally a daily fantasy nightmare in that you can’t much with him (19.4 K%, 9.7 SwStr%), but can’t do much against him either (6.1 BB%, 47.8 GB%, 5.4% Barrels/BBE). However, he’s sort of turned all that around over his last four starts (25 K%, 11.5 SwStr%, 38.3 GB%, 13.3% Barrels/BBE). What’s changed in his pitch mix is…not much from his season usage, while velocity has been stable as well. He’s faced the Mariners twice over this span and also the Yankees and Astros. While that certainly explains the increase in production against him, it doesn’t really explain the strikeouts. He’s also in a pitcher friendly park in Texas (assuming a closed roof) with a favorable matchup (Rangers 93 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP).

This Slate is Loaded with High Priced Pitchers in Difficult Spots

A nine game Wednesday night slate is absolutely loaded from a starting pitching standpoint. We have no fewer than five $10K pitchers on FanDuel and two more exceeding $9K on both sites. Unfortunately, several of them are in difficult spots, but do have the talent to overcome these situations. Shane McClanahan is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, costing exactly $10K on DraftKings, but a full $1.5K more on FanDuel. He simply continues to shoot fire out of his left arm. McClanahan’s failed to strike out at least seven batters just once all season (17 starts) and has 11 Straight Quality starts, allowing more than a single earned run just once over that span. Sometimes the best pitchers need the fewest words and a 31.2 K-BB%, 50.7 GB% and 87.3 mph EV without a single estimator reaching even two and a half ought to do it. Unfortunately, he has an extremely tough matchup (Red Sox 120 wRC+ vs LHP is tied for highest split on the board, 22.1 K%), but in a perhaps the most negative run environment on the slate with the most pitcher friendly umpire. McClanahan is good enough to succeed in this matchup and is the top projected arm on the slate and still a decent projected value on either site. For much more on top of the board pitching tonight, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Mariners-Nationals postponed Tuesday due to weather

Game update: Mariners-Nationals postponed Tuesday due to weather

Christian Yelich (back) scratched Tuesday

Christian Yelich (back) scratched Tuesday

Several Stacks Among Those Projecting For Top Value on FanDuel

Though not as far removed from the rest of the board as they were on the smaller slate yesterday, the San Diego Padres still have the top team run total on the board (6.13), a bit less than half a run ahead of the Yankees (5.69). As a result of this and either site failing to sufficiently price up bats for Coors, the Padres are currently expected to be the most popular stack on the board. In fact, current projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) suggest the Padres may be at least twice as popular as any other stack with ownership projections in the 15% range. They are also projected to smash the slate most often, but just less than 10% of the time in simulations. With a negative ownership to smash ratio, we can already tell that San Diego stacks are not going to be one of the top rated stacks tonight, but more on that in today’s Live PlateIQ blog (and the top rated stacks will make a lot of sense once you see the numbers). The Padres are also the top projected value stack on DraftKings, which explains their slightly higher Own% projection there as well. Over on FanDuel, the Giants, Royals and A’s all project a double digit Value% without any one of the three standing out far above the others, though the Giants have a slight lead. Dallas Keuchel, Beau Brieske and Glenn Otto have all been very vulnerable pitchers this year, facing cheap offenses. In San Francisco’s case, it’s because they utilize so many platoon bats. In Kansas City and Oakland’s case, its because they just haven’t been very good this year.

Platoon Heavy Lineup Features Lots of Top Projected Value

There are so many interesting factors that could play a big part on a large Tuesday night slate. We have Coors, but also the weather at both Yankee Stadium (potential rain) and Wrigley (wind blowing out) potentially affecting games. And what are we going to see out of Chris Sale in his first start of the season? Gerrit Cole is tonight’s most expensive and highest projected pitcher, but what will the weather forecast hold for him? No matter what players decide to do, it’s probably going to include a lot of expensive players and the need for some value bats and the one spot where projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel agree that several can be found is in San Francisco.

Dallas Keuchel tossed his second Quality Start of the season last time out, holding the Rockies to three runs over seven innings, striking out four without a walk. He still keeps half his contact on the ground (52%), but even that’s way down from his prime, while registering just a 3.3 K-BB%. Even with the favorable contact profile, a 4.48 xERA and 4.73 xFIP are his only estimators below five. The Giants currently own a 4.82 implied run line that’s top third of the board, but they also feature lots of cheap platoon bats, as they normally do against LHP. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA above .335 against Keuchel this season and the recently recalled Yermin Mercedes (81 wRC+ since being recalled) costs $2.2K or less on either site and is projected to hit in the top half of tonight’s lineup. Austin Slater (144 wRC+, .173 ISO vs LHP this season) and Darin Ruf (142 wRC+, .214 ISO) both carry some later game pinch-hit risk, but cost just $2.6K each on FanDuel. Slater is $3K on DraftKings, where Brandon Crawford (92 wRC+ vs LHP in 2022) costs just $2.2K.

If you’re stacking Coors bats, Brent Rooker costs the minimum on DraftKings ($2.5K on FanDuel), where he’s the top projected value on the board. He has just seven PAs on the season, but a 140 wRC+ at AAA. Ha-Seong Kim (147 wRC+.140 ISO vs LHP this year), projected to bat leadoff, is a top projected DK value as well for less than $3K. RHBs have a .398 wOBA and .384 xwOBA against the struggling Austin Gomber this season. On such a large slate, no other offense projects multiple top 10 values on either site.

Top Projected Bat on the Board Does Not Come From Coors

On Monday, Coors dominated projections and while the Padres hit their six run team total, several other teams on a moderately sized slate beat that. Once again, the Padres top the board at 6.13 implied runs, but this time, on a near full slate, they are a bit less than half a run removed from the rest of the board. Two more non-Coors offenses have team run totals exceeding five and a half runs, while a total of 12 are above four and a half. As a result, the Padres still feature three batters who project as top 10 bats tonight, but they don’t dominate the top of the board like they did yesterday or even have the top projected bat on the board. None the less, Austin Gomber’s 17.7 K% is a career low. He was temporarily shifted to the bullpen after being thrashed in three of four starts mid-June, but has allowed seven runs in 10.2 innings since returning to the rotation. While he doesn’t’ have an estimator below four, all are more than a run below his 6.46 ERA (.322 BABIP, 59.3 LOB%). Even with the expected regression, RHBs still have a .398 wOBA and .384 xwOBA against Gomber this season, while LHBs are below .300. Projections like Manny Machado (170 wRC+, .342 SIO vs LHP this season), Luke Voit (79 wRC+, .068 ISO) and even Jake Cronenworth (112 wRC+, .125 ISO) most here.

Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board in a home matchup against Graham Ashcraft. After a career best start in which he struck out eight of 30 Giants over eight innings of two run ball, Ashcraft’s struck out just two of his last 46 batters faced. The contact profile (53.4 GB%, 85.9 mph EV, 5.1% Barrels/BBE) and control (4.1 BB%) are impressive, which should help him as much here as it does in Cincinnati, but a 13.4 K% (8.0 SwStr%) certainly won’t play. A 3.76 xERA is not only his only estimator below four, but the only one not within one-third of a run of his 4.35 ERA. In other words, he’ll need to continue suffocating contact to have any chance at being even an average pitcher and that doesn’t bode well for him here, especially considering his reverse split (RHBs .387 wOBA, .379 xwOBA, 45.1 GB%). Giancarlo Stanton (138 wRC+, .292 ISO) is a top five projected bat as well. Beware that there are some weather concerns in NY in Kevin’s recent forecast though. No other offense features multiple to 10 projected bats.

This Returning Pitcher's Performance Could Change the Slate

Chris Sale makes his first start of the season and just 10th since 2019. His latest and only AAA rehab start resulted in five walks, just three strikeouts and a trashed clubhouse. Current projections call for an ERA an estimators in the mid-threes this season. Projecting a pitcher with such a long layoff and small sample or recent work is extremely difficult, but at just $8.4K on DraftKings ($700 more on FanDuel), Sale projects as the top value on the board, though that could change. He certainly gets a park upgrade in Tampa Bay, facing a banged up team with little power (9.0 HR/FB vs LHP), but the Rays have been quite competent against southpaws this season (109 wRC+, 20 K%). With the potential range of outcomes on Sale, not necessarily being so wide, but so unknown, perhaps it’s best to let ownership projections be your best guide here. He currently projects to be fairly popular on DraftKings, but that, too, is a fluid situation.

The top projected point per dollar value on FanDuel is currently Kris Bubic, but he is probably not someone anyone wants to trust on a single pitcher site. It looked like he was starting to get his act together after a rough start, but he has recently reverted to his April form, allowing 12 runs (nine earned) over his last 14.2 innings, walking 12 of 71 batters with just 11 strikeouts. Bubic has generated a 57.4 GB% over this span, but with a 90.4 mph EV. He’s completed six innings just once this season and has just a single estimator (4.92 xFIP) below five. The Tigers have also been a bit tougher on LHP (100 wRC+, 21.8 K%), though with very little power (5.9 HR/FB). Bubic projects as the fourth best value on DraftKings for $200 less and may make a more reasonable SP2 in GPPs.

Jose Berrios projects as a top five value on FanDuel for $8.1K, but has been incredibly volatile all season. He did throw his first Quality Start in four outings last time out, but that was in Oakland. His 18.7 K% is his lowest since his rookie season and his six strikeouts against the A’s exceeds his combined total from his previous three starts (five). The real issue has been in the contact profile (90.6 mph EV, 11.5% Barrels/BBE). Of course, with the reduced strikeout rate, that means even more damage than it would normally. The Phillies have a 100 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs RHP, but are missing several key bats due to injuries and restrictions. However, paying up on FanDuel still seems to be the best option tonight.

Further considering low cost DraftKings SP2 arms, Glenn Otto projects as the second best point per dollar value for just $5.7K and this is all in the matchup. Otto has walked nine and struck out just seven of 51 batters since returning to the rotation. He actually has a 0.5 K-BB% over his last nine starts now and may even be a bit fortunate that just six of his 14 barrels (9.5%) have left the yard this year. His lowest estimator on the season is a 5.22 xFIP. However, Texas is a pitcher friendly park with the roof closed, as it generally is during the summer months, while the A’s have a board low 70 wRC+ with a 23.7 K% vs RHP this year. On the other side of that matchup, James Kaprielian projects as a top five value in price only ($5.5K). He has failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in six of 13 starts this year and has just a 4.0 K-BB% on the season, while allowing 9.5% Barrels/BBE. Somehow, his last two starts have still been his first two Quality Starts of the season, while all estimators are now above his 5.06 ERA, but even against Texas (92 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), you’re basically punting this spot and hoping to get another empty six innings, as he’s shown no upside this season.

In the $7K range, both Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndergaard project as decent values. Baltimore’s allowance to let Lyles eat up a lot of innings has resulted in the occasional Quality Start with some assistance from the unearned run column (five of them). Though, in truth, he hasn’t been horrible (11.7 K-BB%) if all you’re looking for is someone to fill a spot and even the 11.6% Barrels/BBE haven’t hurt him as badly with the dimensions changing in Baltimore this year (just 12 of 36 barrels have left the yard), including none of the five he surrendered to the Angels last time out. That shot his xERA up to 5.51, the only estimator more than a single hundredth of a point above his 4.50 ERA. The problem here, is not the Cubs (101 wRC+, 22.9 K% vs RHP), but the extremely hitter friendly conditions at Wrigley currently forecasted in Weather Edge that could magnify those barrel issues.

The strikeouts are starting to come for Syndergaard. He has 15 of them (47 BF) over his last two starts and is up to an 18.8 K% on the season with a league average 10.6 SwStr% that suggests there still may be more room for growth. He continues to exhibit great control (5.5 BB%) with a contact profile that’s a bit better than average in most areas, Non-FIP estimators are all about a quarter of a run above his 3.84 ERA. The matchup (118 wRC+, 20.3 K%, 14.6 HR/FB vs RHP) would generally be preclusive here, but without Alvarez and Brantley, the Astros are not only even more predominantly right-handed now, but add some higher strikeout bats as well. Four of nine in the projection Houston lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP this season. Syndergaard still doesn’t have the upside he showed before all the injuries, but may be better off in this spot than suspected.

Favorable Matchup Projects This Pitcher Atop the Board

Once again, a double header (in Cleveland) is the only difference between the DraftKings and FanDuel slate tonight with the former choosing to include these games, while the latter does not, making it either a 13 or 14 game board on Tuesday night. On either site, Gerrit Cole is the most expensive pitcher on the board and only one to reach $10K on both. He’s at least $400 more expensive than any other pitcher on either site. He’s allowed four long balls in his last two starts and multiple home runs in three of his last six, a span over which he’s allowing 13.3% Barrels/BBE. He’s also walked 11 of his last 100 batters, but just finished off a stretch of three of the most disciplined offenses in baseball (Houston, Boston and Cleveland). The strikeouts are still there at an elite rate (31.2%) and the only time he’s failed to complete six innings in his last 14 starts was that five home run massacre in Minnesota. Cole’s 3.26 ERA is now above, but within half a run of all non-FIP estimators and almost perfectly matches his 3.20 xERA. If the strikeout rate were to dip below 30% or if the walks continue to be an issue, the contact profile could become one too, but that’s not a concern tonight because the Reds have just an 85 wRC+, 24.1 K% and 10.3 HR/FB vs RHP this year. There does appear to be a decent 10+ mph wind blowing out to left field though. Cole is the top projected arm on the slate by a decent margin and also the third best projected value on either site. To see which of tonight’s remaining high priced arms project most favorably, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Stacking Projections Suggest Almost Everything is Coming Up Padres

Because they are so affordable and have the top team run total on the board by more than a full run, San Diego stacks are currently projected to be in more than 25% of daily fantasy lineups on either site (although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). They also smash the slate more than a quarter of the time and at least three times as often as any other stack in early simulations. The Value% projections for San Diego stacks are also off the charts. Everything comes up overwhelmingly Padres until we get to Leverage Ratings. It would be easy enough just to stack them and still be able to afford top priced pitching tonight and even though they aren’t the top rated stack, it’s still not a bad idea, but to find out which stacks do rate above them, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Many of the Top Projected Bats Are Also Top Projected Values

Making tonight’s slate more difficult is the fact that you can nearly stack all the top projected hitters on the board along with rostering the top two projected pitchers because Coors pricing is so cheap. The result is that many of your top projected point per dollar values on either site double as top projected bats overall. Filter for P/$ using PlateIQ projections on either DraftKings and FanDuel tonight and the top of the board is loaded with Padres, many of the same Padres who appear at the top of the board when you filter for overall point totals. Trent Grisham (84 wRC+, .136 ISO vs RHP this season) costs just $3.1K on FanDuel and $200 less on DraftKings. Nomar Mazara (111 wRC+, .127 ISO) is $2.9K on FanDuel and the minimum on DraftKings. Eric Hosmer (89 wRC+, .113 ISO) is $3K on FanDuel, but $2.1K on DraftKings. Luke Voit (124 wRC+, .237 ISO) is $3.2K on FanDuel. C.J. Abrams (92 wRC+, .088 ISO) costs $2.1K on DraftKings. Jose Urena has walked more of the 62 batters he’s faced than he’s struck out this year and the Padres top the board at 6.26 implied runs, more than a run and a half ahead of any other non-Coors offense tonight.

While they may not even be necessary, FanDuel projections also suggest a pair of Oakland bats as top values against Spencer Howard tonight. He has struck out 14 of 51 batters with four walks, but six of 13 fly balls and five barrels (15.2%) have left the yard. Yes, that’s more home runs than barrels, but still a lot of barrels. Seth Brown (107 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Stephen Vogt (61 wRC+, .185 ISO) costs $2.2K of less. Only available on DraftKings, projections suggest Kansas City bats may have some value against Alex Faedo, who has walked and struck out nine each of the last 60 batters he’s faced (7.3 SwStr%) with just 13 ground balls and seven barrels (16.7%). It’s difficult to project lineups for the second game of a double-header accurately, but Michael A. Taylor, Ryan O’Hearn and Kyle Isbel all cost less than $2.5K on DraftKings.

Bats From This Game Dominate the Slate

Coors blows the rest of Monday night’s slate out of the water. It features the only two teams above five implied runs with the Padres (6.56) separating themselves by more than a run from the Rockies (5.44). Only three or four more offenses (depending on your site of choice) exceed four and a half implied runs. The obvious result is that players can’t even stack the number of San Diego bats with top 10 projections by PlateIQ tonight. The first four in the San Diego projected lineup are the top four projected bats on the board tonight. Jose Urena held the mighty Dodgers to a single run over 6.2 innings in his first start of the season, despite walking three with just two strikeouts. In fact, he’s walked eight of the 62 batters he’s faced this year with just five walks, which pretty much makes anything else he does irrelevant and relevant is not something Urena has been since 2018 (5.02 FIP, 4.97 xFIP since 2019). Manny Machado (155 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP this year), Jake Cronenworth (99 wRC+, .147 ISO), Trent Grisham (84 wRC+, .136 ISO), Luke Voit (124 wRC+, .237 ISO), Eric Hosmer (89 wRC+, .113 ISO) and Nomar Mazara (111 wRC+, .127 ISO) are all top 10 projected bats tonight.

The only other offense with multiple top 10 projected bats? The Colorado Rockies, of course. Sean Manaea has failed to complete six innings just three times this year. Despite the tendency to pitch deep into games, he’s produced a marginal 15.6 K-BB% with a 4.18 ERA that’s above all estimators, but not by much more than half a run with a 3.63 xERA being the lowest. He’s walked at least three in four of his last five starts. RHBs have a .319 wOBA (.325 xwOBA) against him this season. Kris Bryant (146 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP this year) and Connor Joe (136 wRC+, .144 ISO) are your top projected Rockies. In fact, the only top projected bat on both sites, who isn’t playing at Coors tonight is Jose Ramirez (187 wRC+, .329 ISO) against Lance Lynn (LHBs .384 wOBA, .311 xwOBA) in Cleveland.

Top Projected Pitching Values Are More Likely SP2 Types

Brayan Bello failed to impress in his major league debut (also against the Rays), striking out just two of 21 batters with three walks and four runs allowed, although half his contact was on the ground with an 85.9 mph EV. He is the fourth ranked Boston prospect by Fangraphs with a 50 Future Value grade and also the 52nd ranked prospect in all of baseball. After producing a 23.3 K-BB% at AA this season, his stop off at AAA lasted just 51.1 innings (24.4 K-BB%), though the walk rate has been increasing at each level. With 44.4% of his AAA plate appearances being of the non-contact variety, we might have some workload concerns. He’s only improved his stock since a March scouting report heralded his increasing velocity, but also suggested an eventual high leverage reliever role for him, despite a three pitch mix that included a potentially above average slider and changeup. More recent looks suggest a long term rotation role. His low price tag ($6K or less), park upgrade and high upside matchup (Rays 98 wRC+, 24.9 K% vs RHP) makes him the top projected value on either site tonight, though a much tougher roster on a single pitcher site.

The second best projected value on either site is also a difficult roster on a single pitcher one. Despite striking out 11 of the 23 batters he faced over seven innings in his last AAA starts, Spencer Howard returned to the majors to strike out just two of 19 Orioles with as many walks, being pulled after just 68 pitches and four innings. Perhaps two full trips through the order is improvement in his case, but the production really isn’t. He has struck out 14 of 51 batters with four walks, but six of 13 fly balls and five barrels (15.2%) have left the yard, though four were in his first start in Toronto. A matchup against Oakland (70 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs RHP) for less than $6K is great, but who knows what kind of leash he’ll have here?

Alex Cobb is really the only pitcher costing less than Scherzer, who projects as a better value that you’d actually consider using on a single pitcher site, but even he has hit a bit of a wall recently. While Cobb has a 2.79 ERA over his last four starts, he’s only struck out 12 of 81 batters (7.6 SwStr%) over that span. It’s ironic that his ERA is dropping as his estimators are rising. Yet, with a 17.6 K-BB%, 63 GB%, 24.0 Z-O-Swing%, 87.4 mph EV and 4.2% Barrels/BBE, there’s still more than a run and a half gap between his 4.74 ERA and his worst estimator (3.16 DRA). Workload is also a concern, but he completed six innings in his last start and the Diamondbacks own a mere 91 wRC+ and 23.2 K% vs RHP. For $1.2K less, Cobb is also a fine SP2 choice on DraftKings.

Adrian Martinez has struck out just 11 of the 66 batters he’s faced with six barrels (11.8%) and just a 35.3 GB%. On a positive note, he’s walked just two and did have a 26.4 K% over 64 AAA innings this year. He costs less than $7K in Texas (92 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), but again, we’re talking about another SP2 type. The general gist here is that although your highest priced arms are in difficult spots, you’re still probably paying up for them because there really isn’t much of a middle of the board tonight and the lower priced arms are more SP2 complements than stand on their own types.