DFS Alerts
Francisco Liriano has struck out 19 of last 72, Rangers have a 74 wRC+ & 26.6 K% vs LHP
Chris Sale is the unquestioned top pitcher on the slate. The only questions are how high ownership will be and how will players go about fitting in high upside bats. The Daily K Predictor projects Sale (7.96) more than a strikeout ahead of the next highest pitcher (Greinke 6.62) and the RotoGrinders Player Projections have him well ahead of Ervin Santana. What happens after Sale though. While Santana is the second highest projected pitcher, he’s succeeding on the back of a .171 BABIP and 87.1 LOB%, offering very little upside beyond his $9K to $10K+ cost right now. Michael Pineda has struck out two or fewer in two of his last three starts, but eight Red Sox in between and faces a still Trout-less Angels’ lineup. He has a 12.9 SwStr% and 23.9 K%, the third highest SwStr% on the board. The second highest belongs to Greinke, who’s cost drops below $9K in Coors. His 29.1 K% and 13.9 SwStr% are impressive, but he’s coming off his worst performance of the year in Detroit (5.9 SwStr%) and absolutely needs to miss bats in this park to be successful with his velocity drop. Batters are making hard contact 36.8% of the time on batted balls. Sonny Gray has shown increased upside when trusting his slider. He’s used it 30% of the time twice this year, striking out 10 each time, but faces an offense with a 125 wRC+ at home, 122 wRC+ vs RHP, and 162 wRC+ over the last week in Houston. Maybe it’s Francisco Liriano. As uncomfortable as that sounds in Texas, he’s struck out 19 of 72 batters in three June starts with just five walks, while the Rangers have a 74 wRC+ and 26.6 K% against LHP this year. Players on two pitcher sites can look at Mike Montgomery as well. It’s not that he’s been impressive (5.8 K-BB%), but the Padres have a 76 wRC+ on the road and are one of two offenses worse than the Rangers against LHP (72 wRC+, 24.6 K%).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Ervin Santana, Michael Pineda, Zack Greinke, Sonny Gray
Several Colorado Rockies have multiple HRs against Zack Greinke
Carlos Gonzalez has a slate leading four HRs against the pitcher he is facing tonight, but a not as impressive 88.3 mph aEV on 14 Statcast recorded batted balls with six extra-base hits in 39 PAs. Both appear to be different players this year with decline hitting Gonzalez harder. Coors may be the great equalizer in this matchup, though Cargo is difficult to roster in any park right now. The batter with the highest aEV on more than 10 batted balls tonight is Eric Hosmer (95.5 mph – 18 BBEs) against Chris Sale. He’s homered three times in 48 PAs as has Lorenzo Cain in the same number of attempts, though it’s unlikely players are considering Kansas City bats tonight. Gonzalez’s teammates Trevor Story (90 mph aEV – 9 BBEs) and Mark Reynolds (86.7 mph aEV – 9 BBEs) have also homered three times against Greinke. This will be an interesting spot tonight for a pitcher excelling with reduced velocity due to increased slider usage resulting in more strikeouts, but also the highest hard contact rate in a decade (36.8%).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds Jose Ramirez brings a 327 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week into action against Chris Tillman
Five major league batters with at least 10 PAs over the last week have a wRC+ above 300 with a hard hit rate above 40%. Jose Ramirez (327 wRC+, 50 Hard%, three HRs) is the hottest hitter in the league and faces a struggling Chris Tillman. Mike Zunino (314 wRC+, 58.3 Hard%, four HRs) gets a resurgent Jordan Zimmermann (five ERs last 20 IP). Matt Joyce (309 wRC+, 43.8 Hard%, one HR) goes up against the big armed, control plagued rookie Francis Martes in Houston. Steve Pearce (306 wRC+, 44.4 Hard%, one HR) will likely bat near the bottom of the Toronto lineup in a great matchup with Nick Martinez in Texas. While all of these bats may be playable tonight and Ramirez even one of the top plays, all cost at least $4K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Mike Zunino, Steve Pearce, Matt Joyce Update: Sonny Gray still starting Tuesday
Oddly enough, a Brian McTaggart fake account tweeted the Gray news, so we’re right back to where we started with Gray taking the hill for Oakland.
Half the teams on a full slate are implied for at least 4.8 runs tonight
Two offenses are implied for more than six runs tonight and neither of them are involved in the game at Coors. In all, half of the 30 teams tonight have a run line higher than 4.8 with just seven below 4.4. This is likely to spread out offensive choices quite a bit, especially with Zack Greinke on the mound in Colorado. With Chris Sale the only dominant and maybe even the only trustable arm on the mound tonight, players may have a difficult time paying up for a lot of those expensive bats and may be looking to go full punt in a spot or two if they can find a cheap bat near the top of almost any lineup tonight (Adam Engel is leading off for the White Sox for $2.3K or less). Aaron Judge (163 wRC+, .317 ISO career vs RHP) is back home facing a rookie, who started the season in the bullpen. Paul Godlschmidt (138 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Jake Lamb (139 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are at Coors. Brian Dozier (158 wRC+, .314 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Miguel Sano (130 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP since 2016) get to face Derek Holland (RHBs .360 wOBA, 37.6 Hard% since last year). Eric Thames (155 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP) and Travis Shaw (136 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP this year) face Chad Kuhl (RHBs .392 wOBA since last year). Those are just a few of the most powerful one-two combos on tonight’s slate. Perhaps that’s the more optimal way to go rather than full stacks tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw Start of Monday's CLE-BAL game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway but the delay is unlikely to turn into a postponement. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW/ORANGE due to the chance of the game beginning in a delay. Barring any pop-up storms, Kevin seems to believe that this game will play through without interruption once it officially resumes, which is a nice endorsement if wanting to roster Corey Kluber this evening.
As reported by: Paul Hoynes
Risk lowered in CLE-BAL and increased in SF-ATL in Monday's latest MLB weather update
Kevin Roth has issued an update to his evening MLB weather forecast to lower the risk in the game between the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles to YELLOW/ORANGE while upping the risk in the game between the San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves to ORANGE/YELLOW due to a new batch of storms heading towards SunTrust Park. Cleary, Kevin feels more confident in the game in Baltimore playing through than in Atlanta but there is still some significant risk and potential reward in rostering Corey Kluber this evening, making him an ideal target in tournaments if willing and able to take on the additional weather risk. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Clayton Kershaw and Toronto bats projected to be most popular tonight
With the highest implied run line tonight, the Toronto bats are expected to be most popular tonight according to our Projected Ownership page. How popular depends on cost and site, but they should be well owned across the bit two sites tonight with stacks potentially more dominant on FanDuel with generally more affordable price tags throughout the lineup aside from Josh Donaldson. Despite facing RHPs who have allowed LHBs a wOBA above .350 since last season in a hitter friendly park in Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee bats may see light ownership tonight, while only Jason Kipnis on FanDuel is projected to in more than 10% of lineups currently for a Cleveland team with an implied run live above five. On the mound, Clayton Kershaw is expected to be in more lineups than any other pitcher, but Corey Kluber is projected for less than 15% of lineups on either site, while he’s only struck out 38.9% of batters with a 59 GB% in three games since returning from injury. Premium subscribers can find ownership projections, which are updated until first pitch, for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Corey Kluber A few games could be affected by rain in the evening weather update
Although all games appear likely to play there is some delay potential in Baltimore (vs Cleveland), Atlanta (vs San Francisco) and Chicago (vs San Diego). Corey Kluber and Jon Lester are pitching in two of those games, but the good news is a late start is more likely than an in game delay for Kluber, while the situation in Chicago should move through quickly. While Kershaw is the safest play among the top three, at least when considering weather concerns, this forecast appears optimistic enough to keep the top pitchers in play tonight so far, but be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates in case something changes. The full report is available on our Weather page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Corey Kluber R.A. Dickey has a 3.5% K-BB% and a slate-worst 5.43 SIERA on the season
Despite tossing a gem against an exploitable Philadelphia Phillies lineup two starts ago, R.A. Dickey continues to be an extremely hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, allowing at least five runs in three of his last four starts, including eight his last time out, but he always seems to somehow do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater in the rotation for their young and eventually up and coming squad. This year, Dickey has seen a drastic drop in his already low strikeout rate, down to 13.3% to go along with a 9.8% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (49.6%) and limit hard contact to just 28.8% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it’s difficult to imagine Dickey’s 5.35 ERA improving with a terrible, but in line, 5.43 SIERA. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the San Francisco Giants more of an offense to stack or an offense to fade in tournaments tonight since there should be plenty of baserunners with a high probability of home runs but difficult to predict where said production will come from. Buster Posey (156 wRC+, .405 wOBA vs RHP) and Brandon Belt (125 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .233 ISO vs RHP) are the clear top hitters to target in any tournament stack, while Joe Panik, Denard Span, and Eduardo Nunez are on a definitively lower tier, making them more of secondary options and are logical fits as hitters to round out a Giants stack in tournaments opposed to individual one-offs.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Buster Posey, Joe Panik, Denard Span, Eduardo Nunez, R.A. Dickey Cincinnati has the fifth best sOPS+ (109) against fly ball pitchers, Texas is third worst (87)
Six of the 22 pitchers on tonight’s slate can be considered extreme fly ball pitchers (ground ball rate below 40% both this year and over the last two calendar years). Most of their opponents end up in the middle range of teams against fly ball pitchers according to Baseball Reference’s sOPS+ stat, but Cincinnati (facing Jake Odorizzi) has clearly been the best offense against fly ball pitching this year. Part of their 109 sOPS+ (fifth in MLB) against fly ball pitchers is likely due to a power friendly park and may not hold in a transition to Tampa Bay, Odorrizzi has allowed 17.8% of fly balls to leave the yard this year. Of batters in the lineup tonight, only Billy Hamilton has been a below average bat against fly ballers. The two worst teams facing fly ball pitchers tonight have been Toronto (90 sOPS+, fifth worst) and their opponent, Texas (87 sOPS+, third worst). Toronto has the top implied run line on the slate, but this could confidence to Marco Estrada backers. Rougned Odor (47 sOPS+), Elvis Andrus (62), Jonathan Lucroy (80), and Nomar Mazara (85) have all struggled against pitchers who keep the ball in the air despite calling an extremely positive run environment their home park. Remembering that this is just one part of the equation, players can use our new PlateIQ tool to further identify strong matchups and mismatches along these lines using location and types.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Jake Odorizzi Blue Jays combine top overall point projections (Donaldson, Smoak) with value (Bautista) in Texas
You have to go six to seven batters deep until finding two players from the same team among the top projected bats via the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak should be very worthy of players’ fantasy dollars against 32 year-old rookie Austin Bibens-Dirx in Texas. Both have a .305 ISO against RHP this season with a wRC+ above 130. Bryce Harper is favored to be the top overall point accumulator. He is facing a LHP, against whom he’s been just a bit above average since last season (99 wRC+, .182 ISO), but Nicolino is a soft-tossing contact prone pitcher, though he’s held LHBs to a .299 wOBA and 24.4 Hard% since last season. Players looking to save some salary to pay up for pitching will be happy to see Kyle Seager as the top potential value on DraftKings (2.59 Pt/$/K) against Anibal Sanchez for $3.4K, while Jose Bautista (2.43 Pt/$/K) costs less than $4K in Texas. The Blue Jays have the top implied run line on the slate (5.4). Mallex Smith (3.95 Pt/$/K) and Javier Baez (3.93 Pt/$/K) are top value picks on FanDuel.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Jose Bautista Jose Ramirez stands out against Dylan Bundy's tendencies on PlateIQ
Dylan Bundy has lived on the outside of the plate against LHBs, most often in the middle (10%) according to PlateIQ with a fastball/cutter/changeup mix and a few sliders. Going through the Cleveland lineup, most of the lineup (LH portion) hits those pitches well, but Jason Kipnis struggles with pitches outside except for those low in the zone, while a red hot Jose Ramirez (325 wRC+ last seven days) sees his hottest zones and pitch types matchup up well with what Dylan Bundy throws. There don’t appear to be many favorable matchups for Bundy in this lineup, but Ramirez definitely stands out among the rest of his teammates here. Considering that Bundy doesn’t have much of a split and throws his slider a lot more often to RHBs, Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Santana both appear to matchup equally well against his tendencies according to PitchIQ. While Bundy does have a ERA (3.29) more than a run below his estimators (4.93 SIERA, 4.47 FIP), his 10.4 SwStr% suggests he could improve his strikeout rate and improve his peripherals, but there are certainly reasons to support Cleveland’s 5.13 implied run line tonight (second best on the board).
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Dylan Bundy, Edwin Encarnacion Corey Kluber has a 38.9 K%, 58.9 GB% and -18 Hard-Soft% since returning from injury
Clayton Kershaw finds himself in the third spot in the Daily K Predictor tonight (6.9) behind Corey Kluber (8.15) and Jon Lester (7.94), though the RotoGrinders Player Projections still see Kershaw well ahead of the other two and Johnny Cueto, who has had more issues with hard contact in the air this season. Kershaw has been less consistent (five or fewer strikeouts in four of last nine starts), but still shows flashes of brilliance (nine or more strikeouts in four of last nine starts) and has gone at least seven innings in 11 of 14 starts this year. Corey Kluber has struck out 28 of 72 batters with a 58.9 GB% and -18 Hard-Soft% in three starts since returning from injury. He may have the most difficult matchup of the three in Baltimore, but faces a predominantly RH lineup with the loss of Chris Davis. He has a 29.8 K% against RHBs since last season. Jon Lester tied a season high with 10 strikeouts last time out. He’s not throwing as hard with a few more walks, but his strikeout rate, swinging strike, batted ball and contact rates are all very similar if not exactly the same as last season and he has the top matchup on the board against the Padres (24.5 K% vs LHP). The three top priced arms are the three top plays tonight. Brad Peacock could be the other interesting arm. He has a 12.4 BB% in five starts with four walks in each of his last two and just one strikeout two starts back, but he followed that up with 10 strikeouts in his last start along with at least eight in each of his other three. He faces an Oakland lineup with a 24.8 K% against RHP.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Nelson Cruz has homered four times in 15 PAs against Anibal Sanchez
There is virtually no useful BvP information on tonight’s slate. The top aEV for any batter against a pitcher tonight with at least 10 BBEs recorded by Statcast belongs to Elvis Andrus with a 91.9 mph aEV against Marco Estrada (12 BBEs). He has two extra-base hits in 17 PAs. We have to drop down to seven BBEs until we see something better (Gregory Polanco 98.4 mph aEV vs Matt Garza) in a batter who’s power has been affected by injuries this season. Nelson Cruz has four HRs and a 92.2 mph aEV against Anibal Sanchez (six BBEs, 15 PAs), but we hardly needed that information to move against such a home run prone pitcher in that matchup.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Elvis Andrus, Gregory Polanco