DFS Alerts
Sean Manaea leads Wednesday night's starters with a 15.0% SwStr%
Manaea’s SwStr% is 2.1% above the Jordan Montgomery in second and he’s just 2.0% behind the leader in K% (26.4%). He’s in a tough spot against the Astros, whose projected lineup holds a 16.0% K%, .184 ISO, and .339 wOBA, but he still seems too cheap on DraftKings, where he’s just $6.8k. That places him tenth in salary and he provides a savings of $4.8k off Jose Berrios’ $11.4k price tag. As one might expect, he projects as our top points-per-dollar option at the position on the site. He has a 3.94 SIERA through 12 starts and a solid 48.2% GB%, but he gives up a lot of hard contact (36.1%). Although there’s certainly some risk here with the Astros in town, he’s shaping up as an excellent SP2 on DK, particularly in tournaments as he can deliver a great return on his salary. On FanDuel he costs an extra $1.5k though and with only one pitching slot, he’s tougher to fit in. Be sure to check out the Astros lineup when it’s released.
Kevin Gausman to face two of the hottest batters on the late in Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion
Jose Ramirez has a 357 wRC+ with a 50 Hard% and three HRs over the last week. Although Kevin Gausman has sustained a significant reverse split this year, everybody is hammering him. LHBs have a .348 wOBA and 35 Hard%. Ramirez has been torching RHP for a 159 wRC+ and .266 ISO. Matt Joyce (340 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, one HR) is the only other batter on the slate with a wRC+ exceeding 300 over the last week (10 PA min.), but he missed last night’s game with an injury and is facing a reverse platoon arm in Mike Fiers, who has altered his approach to better results over the last month. Two more potentially strong plays tonight are Gary Sanchez (287 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, two HRs) against Ricky Nolasco (RHBs .342 wOBA, 36.9 Hard% since last season) and Edwin Encarnacion (285 wRC+, 44.4 Hard%, five HRs) facing Kevin Gausman as well (RHBs .428 wOBA this season).
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Gary Sanchez, Matt Joyce
With 10 teams above a 4.9 implied run line, St Louis could fly under the radar in a decent spot in Philly
Both the Rockies and Yankees are implied for more than six runs tonight, though there could be a bit of skepticism in Coors. Taijuan Walker flashed a 20.8 K-BB% with an 11.5 SwStr% in April before just a 2.0 K-BB% and 7.2 SwStr% in four May starts prior to hitting the DL. He returned to strike out six of 22 batters and can still has the upside to be a good pitcher when healthy, which he hasn’t entirely been the last couple of years. Eight additional teams have a run line above 4.9, making it nearly half the 22 team slate above that number. A couple of potential contrarian bats at the low end of the high range offenses could be in Philadelphia where Nick Pivetta’s 22.5 K% is not supported by his 7.2 SwStr%, while a 38.5 GB% could get him in trouble in a small park in warmer weather. LHBs have a .342 wOBA against him. Matt Carpenter (144 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Dexter Fowler (128 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2016) both have a wRC+ exceeding 240 over the last week. RHBs have been even better against Pivetta (.392 wOBA, 40 Hard%). Jedd Gyorko, Tommy Pham and Stephen Piscotty have all hit RHP well (116 – 121 wRC+, .189 – .201 ISO vs RHP for all of them this year), while Yadier Molina has hit the ball harder than anybody on the team over the last week (144 wRC+, 52.4 Hard%).
Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko, Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Yadier Molina, Nick Pivetta Colorado and New York Yankees currently lead Wednesday's main slate in projected runs
The Rockies (6.47) and Yankees (6.24) are quite a ways ahead of the third-highest implied total owned by the Rangers (5.57). Colorado gets their normal boost from playing in Coors plus it’s going to be 89 degrees at first pitch with 12 mph winds blowing out to center. Despite the favorable conditions, the total seems a little high; they’ll face Taijuan Walker, who hasn’t allowed a dinger for three straight starts (although none of those were in Coors). He’s only allowed four all season through ten starts and he’s posted a 49.1% GB% and 4.24 SIERA. Of course, Jeff Samarzija, who has a 3.2 SIERA this year, got ripped for 8 earned runs and two homers when he visited Colorado last week. Even so, there’s certainly some merit to fading this squad in tournaments as their ownership will surely be very high. The Yankees are also home and will have hitter-friendly weather on their side: 82 degrees at first pitch with humidity approaching 60 during the course of the game and 12 mph winds blowing out to center. According to ESPN, Yankee stadium has been a better spot for homers than Coors this season – it ranks second (1.4) while Coors is sixth (1.2) – and opposing starter Ricky Nolasco has a favorable 41.3% FB% through 14 starts this season paired with a sky-high 39.7% Hard%. Not surprisingly, he has the second-highest HR/FB on the slate (20.4%). He’s been worse against RHB (165 total batters faced), giving up a 27.7% HR/FB, .306 ISO, .385 wOBA, 43.3% Hard%, and 39.5% FB%. The Yankees haven’t released a lineup yet, but they’re projected to roll with four righties – Judge, Holliday, Castro, Sanchez – in the heart of their order, all of whom appear to be great targets should they start. Out of the two top teams in projected runs, the Yankees appear to be in a better spot, despite the Rockies playing in Coors.
Drew Pomeranz projects as our SP2 on Wednesday's early slate
Max Scherzer is the clear top option on the mound this afternoon as no other starter can touch his 35.1% K%, 15.4% SwStr%, and 2.77 SIERA. After him there are a few targets to consider: Dan Straily (25.1% K%, 11.8% SwStr%, 4.06 SIERA) will face a weak Nationals lineup with several starters resting, Eddie Butler (14.3% K%, 7.4 SwStr%, 5.76 SIERA) doesn’t have great numbers but he’s facing a Padres team that has a 27.8% K%, and Drew Pomeranz (26.6% K%, 10.4% SwStr%, 3.82 SIERA). The latter seems to be the best of the three, despite the hot weather in Kansas City (91 degrees at first pitch) as the Royals may not have enough firepower to exploit those conditions. Their starting lineup has a combined ISO of .137 and .284 wOBA. There is some concern that their K% is just 16.1% and they’ll run six righties against him (Pomeranz has a 23.8% K% vs. RHB and 31.9% K% vs. LHB), which could limit the upside. Even so, he has stronger peripheral stats than the other targets mentioned and our projections model gives him a solid leg up on them in raw points.
Other tagged players: Dan Straily, Eddie Butler No weather concerns on early slate Wednesday
Two of the four afternoon games will be in a dome as the Marlins will have the roof closed and the other two are good to go. We’re going to get very hitter-friendly conditions in Kansas City where the Royals will host the Red Sox. Not only are we anticipating it to be 91 degrees at first pitch, but we’re getting 15 mph winds out to left field. Kauffman Stadium doesn’t allow too many dingers – our ballpark factors rates it .77 to left field and .8 to right – but the weather will certainly help in that regard. Boston currently has the second-highest projected run total on the board at 5.17 while the Royals are fifth with 4.33 as they’ll be facing a stronger pitcher in Drew Pomeranz.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather A pair of Rays bats stand out on early slate
The Rays will face starter Tim Adelman this afternoon, which sets up an excellent matchup for Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison. The pitcher has displayed some notable handedness splits this season (11 starts, 64.0 innings) – in wOBA (.330 vs LHB to .307 vs RHB), ISO (.255 to .195), K% (14.8% to 25.2%), and FB% (51.4% to 38.7%), although he has allowed more hard contact to RHB (33.0% to RHB vs 27.8% to LHB). Batters from both sides of the plate are appealing – and that’s reflected in their 4.93 projected run total – but his splits against lefties really stick out and those numbers haven’t been limited to 2017. Over the last two seasons combined – 253 total lefties faced – his numbers have been pretty similar: .335 wOBA, .231 ISO, 17.4% K%, 51.4% FB%, 30.1% Hard%. Considering the numbers Dickerson (.393 wOBA, .277 ISO, 19.2% K%, 41.4% FB%, 38.2% Hard% vs RHP) and Morrison (.401 wOBA, .357 ISO, 24.4% K%, 47.2% FB%, 47.2% Hard%) have put up this year, they’re a couple of the best plays on the early slate. Our projections model agrees; they rank fifth and seventh respectively in raw points on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson Michael Taylor scratched from lineup Wednesday; Ryan Raburn to start and bat seventh
Taylor’s scratch was vaguely attributed to “soreness,” so it seems like it’s just a rest day. Raburn will enter the lineup in his absence in the seventh spot against Marlins starter Dan Straily. He’s only made eight plate appearances against righties this season, so we don’t have too much data on him from 2017. However, in 2016, he accumulated 138 plate appearances in split and produced some poor numbers: 36.2% K%, .268 wOBA, .134 ISO. He was able to make plenty of hard contact though (38.5%) and posted a 33.3% FB% and 15.4% HR/FB. Straily has struggled against RHB this year – 38.7% Hard%, 46.8% FB%, .227 ISO, .327 wOBA – but Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, the only other RHB in the lineup today, are clearly more favorable options. Both guys have wOBAs of at least .345 and ISOs of at least .186 vs RHP in 2017. Rendon is particularly appealing here given his move to cleanup and his 45.3% FB% against RHP this year.
As reported by: Mark Zuckerman Other tagged players: Ryan Raburn, Anthony Rendon The Yankees are separating from the field, now up to 6.75 implied runs
The Yankees have had the highest implied run line all afternoon, but have now separated themselves from the Indians, who have just dropped under six runs (5.94) as they are all the way up to 6.75 runs in Vegas. That’s up over a one-third of a run in just the last hour or so, which is a pretty significant move this late in the day. Fifteen of 30 teams are still implied for 4.8 runs or more tonight. Players can see implied run lines for all teams on our Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Francisco Cervelli scratched Tuesday, Elias Diaz will replace at catcher
Cervelli has officially been scratched from the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup for tonight’s game against the Milwaukee Brewers due to flu-like symptoms. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Elias Diaz, who will take over the catcher duties and bat fifth. Since Diaz is slotting directly into Cervelli’s spot in the order, the remainder of the Pirates initial confirmed lineup remains unchanged.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Pittsburgh Pirates Other tagged players: Elias Diaz
Tonight's trouble spot is San Francisco @ Atlanta in the evening weather update
There’s potential for a late start at Wrigley tonight, but not much to worry about after that. The real concern appears to be in Atlanta where consistent showers could cause a delay or even a postponement. David currently has the game graded Orange/Yellow, but be sure follow him on Twitter (@DavidWolter1) for further updates. Players can read the entire forecast including conditions that are conducive to run scoring tonight on the Weather page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page FanDuel players expected to go for value bats, while DraftKings players more likely to pay up for Coors
Chris Sale is expected to be the most popular pitcher on the slate, the only real surprise is that early projections have him in just one quarter of FanDuel lineups (40% on DraftKings) with Michael Pineda trailing at about half those rates on either site despite his rough outing against these same Angels last time out. With projections at 7.5% or less on either site, perhaps Francisco Liriano is worth a second look with his 26.4 K% in June against Texas’s 74 wRC+ and 26.6 K% vs LHP. Sonny Gray has shown some upside in his strikeout rate too over the last month (27.9 K%, 12.4 SwStr%), but he’s not expected to be in many lineups against the Astros. With half of the offenses implied for 4.8 runs or more tonight, it’s value plays below $3K like Jedd Gyorko, Russell Martin, and Kevin Pillar expected to be most popular on FanDuel, while DraftKings players may take the edge off with a cheaper SP2 and pay up for Arizona and Toronto bats in great spots. Ownership projections for all players are updated throughout the day up until first pitch and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Michael Pineda, Francisco Liriano, Sonny Gray Mike Leake adds support for a great matchup with the Phillies 82 sOPS+ against GB pitchers
Mike Leake and Mike Montgomery are both ground ball pitchers (GB rate above 50%), who are thought to have two of the best matchups on the slate against the Phillies and Padres and while both are bottom of the league offenses in most senses, only the Phillies are also a bottom five team against ground ball pitchers. Their 82 sOPS+ against worm burners is the third worst mark in baseball, enhancing Leake’s matchup tonight. The Padres are far from proficient against ground ballers, but their 90 sOPS+ is only tied for 10th worst in the majors with about half their projected starters above average (100+ sOPS+) in that mark this year. Subsequently, the Phillies have just three batter (Aaron Altherr, Odubel Herrera, and Tommy Joseph) with more than 20 PAs and an sOPS+ against 100 vs GB pitchers. Bad news for Sonny Gray backers as well. Houston is also the offense against ground ball pitchers (142 sOPS+) with George Springer’s 262 sOPS+ leading the way.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Mike Montgomery, Sonny Gray, George Springer Julio Teheran and Matt Moore both facing bottom five offenses vs fly ball pitchers in Atlanta
The Giants play in one of the most power suppressing parks in baseball in San Francisco, which is probably at least partially responsible for their 90 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers and you could see some of their LH bats being more successful here against Julio Teheran (LHBs .347 wOBA, 35.2 Hard% since last season). He’s also generated ground balls on just 35% of BBEs against lefties since last season in which all four of the San Francisco LHBs in tonight’s lineup have at least a 99 wRC+ and .149 ISO. With the significant park upgrade, we can probably give those power numbers a bit of a bump. Their implied total of 4.6 runs tonight is actually below average on this board. Atlanta is not a good offense without a lot of power at this point, but it’s a bit of a surprise that they’ve performed so poorly against fly ball pitchers (89 sOPS+) in this park so far. Tonight, the have what would appear a strong matchup against Matt Moore, who has a slate high 89.8 mph aEV, 10.8% Barrels/BBE and 43.2% 95+ mph EV on batted balls. He’s also much worse against LHBs (.354 wOBA, 37.1 Hard% since last season). Matt Adams (108 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP since last season) would appear the proficient play here, but he has just a 77 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers this year. The three average or better bats against fly ball pitching in this lineup would be Ender Inciarte (101 sOPS+), Matt Kemp (157 sOPS+) and Brandon Phillips (163 sOPS+). Enciarte hasn’t shown any power, but has been at least average with a 107 wRC+ against same handed pitching since last year and it’s not like Moore has actually been good against RHP (.315 wOBA, 32.9 Hard% since last season). These may be the bats players want to include if attacking Moore tonight with Vegas projecting Atlanta at 4.9 runs.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Brandon Phillips, Matt Adams, Ender Inciarte Pair of Diamondbacks project best overall, but Blue Jay duo may hold most value tonight
The RotoGrinders Player Projections project both Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb for better than 15 points on FanDuel tonight with David Peralta joining them among the top five overall bats tonight with Charlie Blackmon and Aaron Judge in between. Colorado is the only other team with at least two players showing up in the top 10 as Nolan Arrenado makes it four Coors bats in total tonight. None of the top 10 should be a surprise. All are big names in nice spots tonight. Kevin Pillar projects for the most value (3.97 Pt/$/K) on FanDuel, likely to lead off in Texas against Nick Martinez for $2.6K. Among batters projected for at least seven DK points, Toronto teammate Jose Bautista may be the top value (2.46 Pt/$/K) for just under $4K. Players who really don’t mind punting an outfielder in the leadoff spot should note that Adam Engel projects for 2.8 Pt/$/K for just $2.1K against Ervin Santana.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Adam Engel, Charlie Blackmon, Aaron Judge, Nolan Arenado