DFS Alerts
Five batters on tonight's slate have a wRC+ above 290 over the last week
Just two players on the slate have wRC+ above 300 over the last week (10 PA min.), though three more cross the 290 barrier. Matt Joyce (351 wRC+, 50 Hard%, one HR) has just a 2.9 SwStr% over this span. He’ll pose a bit of a challenge to Brad Peacock, who has been striking out over 30% of batters in a starting role this year, but walking 12.4% of them as well and has allowed a 35.1 Hard% to LHBs since last season. Jose Ramirez (325 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%, three HRs) is part of an offense with the second best implied run line (5.15) tonight against Dylan Bundy. Lorenzo Cain (294 wRC+, 52.6 Hard%, four HRs) faces a bit of an unknown in 28 year-old Mexican League import Hector Velazquez. Tyler Moore (293 wRC+, 40 Hard%, two HRs) is likely the throw away on this list. He’s not expected to start against his old team, especially with RH Tanner Roark on the mound. Matt Adams (292 wRC+, 45 Hard%, three HRs) could be interesting against Johnny Cueto. LHBs have a 32.4 Hard% against him since last year and overall this season, he has a career low 39.6 GB% and career high 35.6 Hard%. The new park in Atlanta has been a power booster so far this season.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Lorenzo Cain
Though not among the top run lines, LH Pirates & Brewers bats are in strong spots
Nine of 22 offenses on an 11 game slate are currently implied for 4.8 runs or more. While there are a few top arms on the mound tonight, there are clearly several pitchers to target with bats too. Anibal Sanchez has allowed a .393 wOBA and 37.5 Hard% to LHBs since last season, but also pretty high up on that list is Gerrit Cole’s .371 wOBA and 38.3 Hard% vs LHBs as he transitions to a more difficult park in Milwaukee. Yet the Brewers are projected for just 4.35 runs by Vegas. If you take RHBs off the board, Eric Thames (161 wRC+, .342 ISO vs RHP) is a top play from the left-side as should be Travis Shaw (134 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP this season). Eric Sogard (169 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP this season) has enjoyed some success and should be playable as well at a reasonable price at the top of the order, but realize that some of his success has been BABIP driven (.390) with just 24.6% hard contact and 31.7% fly balls. In the middle of the board, at 4.65 runs, consider LH Pirate bats in that game as well. Matt Garza has a 39.7 GB% and 24.5 Hard-Soft% over his last four starts and LHBs have a .353 wOBA witha 37.1 Hard% against him since last year. Josh Bell has a 120 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP since last season. Jorge Polanco (97 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP this season) has been sapped by injuries, but John Jaso (102 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP this season) and Adam Frazier (102 wRC+, .128 ISO vs RHP this season) have been league average bats who can benefit from a park upgrade tonight as well.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Josh Bell The Dodgers' implied total of 6.0 runs tops Sunday's main slate
Bronson Arroyo has been prone to blowups in his comeback season and his last start was no different, allowing a whopping nine earned runs to the San Diego Padres in just 4.2 innings pitched. This afternoon he’ll face off with a powerful Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that has been known to hammer to right-handed pitching from time to time. Arroyo is currently allowing a 19.1% HR/FB rate, which for all you math wizards, means that approximately one out of every five fly balls have been leaving the yard, and he surrenders a ton of fly balls, at a 48.5% rate. Arroyo has allowed 22 home runs in just 13 starts which seems pretty in line with his current skills given all the fly balls and a 33.7% hard hit rate. His inability to induce swings and misses (13.7% K%) puts essentially every Dodgers hitter with any semblance of power in play Sunday and a stack in tournaments certainly remains high on the list in terms of viability. However, the top targets in the Los Angeles lineup are conveniently slotted 1-5 in the batting order and are Cody Bellinger (141 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .357 ISO vs RHP), Yasiel Puig (122 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .250 ISO vs RHP), Joc Pederson (.202 ISO vs RHP), Corey Seager (133 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .176 ISO vs RHP), and even Justin Turner (164 wRC+, .418 wOBA vs RHP) despite his power his power struggles to this point in the season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Bronson Arroyo
Start of Sunday's TB-DET game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of today’s game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway but the delay is unlikely to be a lengthy one. Kevin Roth has the risk of this game graded as YELLOW due to the chance of the game beginning in a delay. Barring any pop-up storms, Kevin seems to believe that this game will play through without interruption once it officially resumes.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Detroit Tigers Several games with rain concerns in Sunday's MLB weather forecast
We already have a confirmed late start in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers, but there are still a couple situations that require attention, primarily in the games in Cincinnati and Atlanta. Kevin Roth currently has these contests graded as YELLOW/ORANGE risks, meaning that a rain delay remains firmly in play for each game, though a postponement seems unlikely in either spot. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Michael Saunders and Andrew Knapp scratched Sunday
Saunders and Knapp have been scratched from the Philadelphia Phillies lineup for today’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks due to an apparent lineup mistake. In the revised lineup, Daniel Nava and Cameron Rupp will replace them and bat sixth and seventh respectively. Since Nava and Rupp are slotting directly into Saunders and Knapp’s spots in the order, the remainder of the Phillies initial confirmed lineup remains unchanged.
As reported by: Kevin Cooney Other tagged players: Andrew Knapp, Daniel Nava, Cameron Rupp Robbie Ray has a 29.3% K-BB% and 2.75 SIERA in his last five starts
Robbie Ray has been phenomenal this season, and even better of late, allowing just one earned run in his last five starts while punching out at least nine hitters in all but one of those outings. Today, he’ll face off with an exploitable Philadelphia Phillies lineup that ranks 26th and 25th in wRC+ and wOBA, respectively, against left-handed pitching. On the year, Ray has a stellar 32.4% strikeout rate but comes into today’s game with a 10.6% walk rate. However, the free passes could be less of an issue in this matchup considering the Phillies draw walks at just a 7.6% clip against southpaws, which is good for 21st in the entire league. A potential drawback in rostering Ray this afternoon is that his recent performances have elevated his price tag significantly on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which means we really have to pay a premium for him in a drastically lower upside matchup than his previous two outings against the Milwaukee Brewers (26.4% K% vs LHP) and San Diego Padres (24.5% K% vs LHP). This isn’t to say that Ray can’t dominate this Phillies lineup and their 20.3% strikeout rate against lefties but it is a potential red flag if looking to fade him at his astronomical price point. Despite being overpriced, it is highly unlikely that Ray will post a poor outing against this Phillies squad that owns just a .297 wOBA versus left-handed pitching. He still possesses the upside to post the highest pitching score in Sunday’s main slate and is probably the likeliest to do so, but there is certainly merit to looking for lower-priced options that have a chance to at least come close to keeping pace with Ray this afternoon. Though, he remains a clear top option if able to make his salary work with your lineups for the main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Risk lowered lowered in both MIA-ATL and STL-BAL games in updated Saturday weather forecast
Kevin Roth has updated his initial weather forecast lower the risk to YELLOW in the games between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles in Atlanta and Baltimore respectively. This means that the chances of a rain delay remain present for both games, though Kevin sees it unlikely for either game to be postponed due to the inclement weather. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Matt Holliday scratched Saturday; Starlin Castro will replace him at DH
Holliday has officially been scratched from the New York Yankees lineup for today’s game against the Oakland Athletics due to a reported allergic reaction. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Starlin Castro, who will take over designated hitter duties and bat fourth. Since Castro is slotting directly into Holliday’s cleanup spot in the order, the remainder of the Yankees initial confirmed lineup remains unchanged.
As reported by: Erik Boland Other tagged players: Starlin Castro Chad Pinder scratched Saturday; Adam Rosales will replace and bat second
Pinder has officially been scratched from the Oakland Athletics lineup for today’s game against the New York Yankees due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Adam Rosales, who will take over at shortstop and bat second. Since Rosales is slotting directly into Pinder’s two-spot in the order, the remainder of the Athletics initial confirmed lineup remains unchanged.
As reported by: Alex Espinosa Other tagged players: Adam Rosales Asher Wojciechowski owns a career 6.77 xFIP and 1.2% K-BB% versus LHB
Asher Wojciechowski has seen some mixed results in his first three starts at in the Majors this season and is coming off a start against the Los Angeles Dodgers in which he allowed four earned runs in five innings pitched and struck out just one batter. This is not a recipe for success for Wojciechowski, and he’ll draw the unenviable task of facing that same Dodgers lineup this afternoon, except this time at home in the bombers’ paradise known as Great American Ballpark. In just 18 career innings, Wojciechowski has done a decent job limiting home runs against left-handed batters (1.00 HR/9), despite an insanely low 18.8% groundball rate. As we can see by looking at his 5.6% HR/FB rate, a lot of this success is due to a small sample size and overall variance, and even with a below-average 29.2% hard hit rate, it should be expected to see those home run totals begin to drastically regress. Just further adding to the appeal of the Dodgers lefties today is the low 11.9% strikeout rate and high 10.7% walk rate Wojciechowski brings to the table, meaning there should be plenty of baserunners and plenty of contact in the air, increasing the likelihood of the Dodgers putting up some crooked numbers via the long ball. We can’t completely write off the Dodgers righties like Chris Taylor (130 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .201 ISO vs RHP) and Yasiel Puig (115 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .220 ISO vs RHP), as Wojciechowski still struggles with groundballs (30.6% GB%) and hard contact (34.6% HH%) against right-handed batters, but our primary Dodgers exposure should come in the way of Cody Bellinger (130 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .338 ISO vs RHP) and Cory Seager (125 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .173 ISO vs RHP), while Yasmani Grandal (.182 ISO vs RHP), Chase Utley (.180 ISO vs RHP), and Joc Pederson (.177 ISO vs RHP) should be categorized more as secondary options from the left side of the plate that are better utilized as part of a stack than as individual one-offs in large-field tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal, Chase Utley, Joc Pederson, Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig, Asher Wojciechowski Several games with rain concerns in Saturday's early MLB weather forecast
There certainly isn’t any shortage of games with the risk of potential rain delays, as five games in the early slate have received grades of YELLOW/ORANGE from Kevin Roth. This means that each of these games has a strong chance of some kind of rain delay and postponement cannot be entirely ruled out, though Kevin believes the games should be able to play through if the teams so choose. These are situations we will want to take a second look at closer to their respective game times as well. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Chris Archer has notched a career-best 22.1% K-B% and 13.1% SwStr% this season
Chris Archer is set to take the mound against the Detroit Tigers this afternoon coming off of a subpar performance against the Oakland Athletics his last time out, allowing four earned runs in six innings pitched while striking out eight. Poor outing aside, Archer has really turned it around of late after a shaky start to the year in the strikeout department, eclipsing double-digit strikeouts in five of his last eight starts, flashing the elite upside that we have all come to know and love. The current season advanced statistics for Archer have rebounded nicely following his middling start to the 2017 campaign, evidenced by a 3.40 SIERA, 30.0% strikeout rate, and a 7.9% walk rate, that is essentially in line with his career numbers. One potential trouble spot is the small dip in his groundball rate (42.0% GB%) from a career 46.2% rate that is correlated with a career-high 39.5% hard hit rate, though a 14-start sample size is still arguably too small to place that much stock in the hard contact issues. Given the matchup with a Tigers squad that is merely an average offense against right-handed pitching with a 22.8% strikeout, it’s easy to see why Archer possesses one of the highest ceilings among starting pitchers on Saturday’s early slate and possibly even the highest floor, despite Detroit owning a respectable .170 ISO against righties. If weighting splits, the only drawback with this spot is that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 35.6% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to a 23.1% strikeout rate on the road.
As reported by: FanGraphs Max Scherzer and Luis Severino expected to be most popular on slate full of big arms
While one-third of tonight’s pitchers have a strikeout rate exceeding 24%, about one-quarter of the offenses have an implied run line of five runs or more too. That likely means that ownership will be well spread out and in fact, ownership projections don’t foresee any batter reaching the 20% on either site with Giants, Dodgers, Brewers and Mariners all being fairly popular. On the mound, Max Scherzer still projects as the favorite on any slate he’s on and could get up around 30% on DraftKings along with Luis Severino in a nice spot, but there are a number of other strong arms that are worthy of investment too. Jeff Samardzija has the third best K-BB (25.2%) in baseball. He is at Coors, but receives a significant price reduction to compensate against an offense with an 81 wRC+ at home and 80 wRC+ vs RHP. Premium subscibers can find potential ownership rates for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Jeff Samardzija Potential trouble brewing in Baltimore in Kevin's evening update
St. Louis Baltimore is the most concerning game on a slate with a few potential nuisances. The question may be more about when the rain arrives than if. Both this game and Arizona Philadelphia could start okay with rain potentially moving in later. Read tonight’s full forecast on the Weather page where Kevin updates us on those two games and few others with a small chance of a delay along with some hitter friendly conditions. Be sure to follow him on Twitter as well (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.