DFS Alerts
Mike Trout is projected to be overwhelmingly owned tonight
Mike Trout is projected to be owned at an astound clip above 40% on DraftKings (35% on FanDuel), which is understandable considering the lack of expensive pitching on the slate, his 289 wRC+ over the last week, and his team’s slate high 4.91 run projection. However, considering potential ownership rates and opposing pitcher Mike Pelfrey’s 56.3 GB% and 25.8 Hard%, perhaps not a total fade, but lowering exposure might not be crazy. Jake Lamb is also projected to be in around 30% of lineups on either site, justified by a weak overall 3B position tonight. With Freeman, Goldschmidt, and Thames projected to be the most popular First Base options, it’s a great position to diversify as several viable options, including Myers, Bour, and Bellinger are expected to be in 5% or fewer of lineups on both sites. Pitching is fairly well spread out with Chavez expected to be most popular on DraftKings and Perdomo on FanDuel, but cost is not really an issue tonight and nine starters are projected for at least 10% ownership on DraftKings. Premium subscribers can see potential ownership rates for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Eric Thames, Wil Myers, Justin Bour, Cody Bellinger, Jesse Chavez, Luis Perdomo
Luis Perdomo is a top projected overall arm and value by RotoGrinders Player Projections
Mike Trout is the top overall bat via RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight, trailed by Nelson Cruz and Freddie Freeman. Trout is a matchup proof monster facing a pitcher who has allowed a high wOBA to RHBs (.365 since last year), despite a high GB rate (56.3%) low 25.8 Hard%. Cruz is facing a tough lefty, who has been occasionally vulnerable to LH power and will likely give way to an equally vulnerable bullpen in his first start back from injury. Freeman has also become one of the more matchup proof bats in the majors and faces a pitcher with occasional HR issues (14.7 career HR/FB). Top value plays may be David Peralta (3.82 Pt/$/K) vs Zack Wheeler and Joc Pederson (3.75 Pt/$/K) vs Matt Cain in vastly different run environments, but each below $3K on FanDuel. Nelson Cruz (2.33 Pt/$/K) doubles as a top value play on DraftKings ($4.5K), again with Peralta (2.32 Pt/$/K). Luis Perdomo is both an top two overall projected arm and potentially the top value on either site.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Freddie Freeman, David Peralta, Joc Pederson Astros, Dodgers among top six offenses vs fly ball pitchers, Padres, Giants tied for worst
Four pitchers tonight have a GB rate below 40% over the last two calendar years. While Matt Cain was never a consideration despite the great park with an ERA and estimators above four, the Dodgers add a 119 wRC+ against RHP and sixth best 116 sOPS+ in the majors. While Dan Straily may initially look attractive with a 24 K% on this slate, after realizing that 14 of his Ks came in one start and he’s not had more than five in any other, expectations may be tempered somewhat. Then the real whammy is Houston’s 125 wRC+ against RHP and fifth best 121 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers. On the other end of the spectrum, the Padres and Giants are tied for a league low 76 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers. Part of that may be in the parks they call home (San Francisco is especially known to suppress power), but while Brandon McCarthy should be a pitcher of interest tonight, he hasn’t thrown a major or minor league pitch in over two weeks and is making his first start back from a shoulder issue. That leaves Chase Anderson in San Diego. Quite the difficult pitcher to evaluate, he has just a 4.8 HR/FB this year after never having been below 11% in any major league season. He additionally has a 19.3 Hard-Soft% this season, but just an 84.6 mph aEV and 3.4% Barrels/BBE, so there’s some disagreement between those metrics. He also has a 4.10 ERA over the last month, more closely matching his estimators, while the Padres have a surprising 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP this year. They do strike out a slate high 25.4% of the time against them though. Considering the lack of upside on the slate, Anderson’s league average strikeout rate (20.4%) is probably worth at least some exposure here, though more likely on DraftKings for $1.7K less than his FanDuel cost.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Brandon McCarthy, Dan Straily, Matt Cain Mets have a top two offense against GB pitchers (129 sOPS+), Angels bottom five (80 sOPS+)
While there are plenty of reasons to attack Mike Pelfrey with LHBs (.377 wOBA, 35.7 Hard% since last season) and Mike Trout is as matchup proof a batter in the majors as there is, there may be an additional reason to avoid RHBs from this lineup tonight. Along with Pelfrey’s 56.3 GB% and 25.8 Hard% against RHBs, despite a .365 wOBA allowed, the Angels are the fifth worst offense against GB pitchers this season with just an 80 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against them. Players may have also identified Zack Godley as a low cost arm with some potential upside, and rightfully so, as he’s struck out 12 of 45 major league batters this year and has an 11.7 SwStr% in 123.1 career innings. You’d think he does himself additional favors with a 53.3 GB% too, but the Mets are among the best offenses at elevating pitches down in the zone with a 129 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers. The sample is small individually, but top bats include Michael Conforto and Neil Walker, both with an sOPS+ at 240 or higher in more than 20 PAs this season. Each also has a wRC+ above 250 and hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. Although no Met has more than one HR in the sample, Curtis Granderson (45 sOPS+) and Jose Reyes (89 sOPS+) have been the only below average LHBs.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Neil Walker, Zack Godley, Mike Pelfrey, Mike Trout With McCarthy and Manaea returning from shoulder issues, bullpens likely to play large role
All things being equal, Sean Manaea (in Seattle) and Brandon McCarthy (in San Francisco) would normally be top pitching selections on this slate. However, they are the top two priced pitchers on DraftKings and neither has thrown a major league pitch in May due to shoulder issues. While that’s scary enough on it’s own, only Manaea threw a rehab outing that lasted all of 18 batters, while McCarthy has started a total of 14 games over the last two calendar years and exceeded 91 pitches just once in five April starts. It would be prudent to expect shorter outings (perhaps five innings or 75-85 pitches) with heavy bullpen usage in these games, not something to take into account just for pitcher usage, but if considering offensive selections in opposing lineups as well. While batters like Brandon Belt, Buster Posey and Nelson Cruz are strong both RH & LH pitchers, the Dodgers’ bullpen should be considered elite with a 29.5 K% and 2.92 SIERA that both rank only behind the Astros. The Oakland bullpen is a bit more vulnerable with a 20.3 K% and 3.94 SIERA that both rank 23rd in the majors and a .312 wOBA allowed to RHBs that’s worse than their .300 wOBA when facing LHBs. While RHBs have a .319 wOBA (34.2 Hard%) against Manaea since last season as well, Nelson Cruz (185 wRC+, .325 ISO vs LHP since 2015), at least theoretically (individual pitchers vary of course), should not suffer much from multiple PAs against the Oakland bullpen.
Other tagged players: Brandon McCarthy, Sean Mannion, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt GB machine Luis Perdomo (69.5%) tops the main slate with 6.01 Ks via the Daily K Predictor
Luis Perdomo leads the main slate with a projected 6.01 strikeouts according to the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor. It’s a horrible slate for pitching, but Perdomo might stand out against a powerful Milwaukee lineup (20.6 HR/FB on the road, 20.1 HR/FB vs RHP) due to the negative run environment in San Diego and his 69.5 GB%, which would lead the majors by over four points if he had enough innings to qualify. The Brewers also matchup well from a strikeout standpoint, considering their 24.4 K% vs RHP and his 21 K% (10.2 SwStr%). In fact, since moving into the San Diego rotation last June, Perdomo has a 62.9 GB% in 139 IP. From a pure matchup standpoint, players should also be looking at Jesse Chavez (20.1 K%, 8.9 SwStr%), who faces the White Sox (74 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP) in a great home park in LA. Zack Godley does not have a favorable matchup in Arizona against the Mets (18.5 K% vs RHP), but is a low cost arm who has struck out 12 of 45 major league batters this year and does have a career 11.7 SwStr% (123.1 IP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Jesse Chavez, Zack Godley Pair of lesser known Diamondbacks among hottest hitters on the slate.
The small slate tonight sees just two batters above a 300 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.), led by Nich Ahmed 323 with a 66.7 Hard% and three HRs in 14 PAs. Teammate Brandon Drury joins him in the top five via wRC+ (263 wRC+, 52.9 Hard%, 2 HRs in 21 PAs). Although they play in the highest runs scoring environment on the slate in Arizona, Zack Wheeler has had great success against RHBs this season (.259 wOBA, 20.4 Hard%), despite a narrow 3.9 K-BB%. Perhaps there’s something there if you like bloopers and walks? Yasmani Grandal (307 wRC+, 38.1 Hard%, 1 HR) is the next hottest bat on the slate. He’s done it with just a 4.2 K% in 24 PAs and has a nice matchup against Matt Cain (LHBs .385 wOBA since last season) despite the extreme negative run environment and power suppression of San Francisco. Buster Posey has a 296 wRC+ with a 45 Hard% and 4 HRs on the opposite side of that game. His matchup with Brandon McCarthy (RHBs .275 wOBA since last season) is not a strong one and may get worse with the bullpen likely to make an early appearance. Despite Mike Pelfrey’s ground ball tendencies against RHBs (56.3% since last season), Mike Trout (289 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%, 3 HRs in 17 PAs) may still be the top bat on the slate, as well as one of the hottest.
Other tagged players: Brandon Drury, Zack Wheeler, Yasmani Grandal, Matt Cain, Brandon McCarthy, Buster Posey, Mike Trout, Mike Pelfrey First Base is loaded tonight with seven projected starters above a 150 wRC+ over the last week
First Base has been an incredibly strong position this season, leading to great lineup diversity, but tonight, the position is in a…position…of great strength. Consider that potentially more than 10 projected starters (including those with duel positional eligibility on DraftKings) are facing an opponent with a greater than .340 wOBA allowed to side of the plate from which they bat since last season. Eight have a wRC+ of at least 125 with an ISO above .190 since 2015 against the handedness of the pitcher they face tonight as well. Seven also have a wRC+ above 150 with at least a 40% hard hit rate over the last week. The list of great options includes Eric Thames, Cody Bellinger, Jay Bruce (DK), Paul Goldschmidt, Wil Myers, Justin Smoak, Luis Valbuena, and Lucas Duda. The top option may be Freddie Freeman though. Freeman has a 168 wRC+ and .315 ISO against RHP since last season, while LHBs have a .361 wOBA against Mike Bolsinger over his career.
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Cody Bellinger, Jay Bruce, Paul Goldschmidt, Wil Myers, Justin Smoak, Luis Valbuena, Lucas Duda Angels have to implied run line tonight (4.91), but RHBs have a 56.3 GB% & 25.8 Hard% against Pelfrey
While the Angels own tonight’s highest implied run line at 4.91 runs according to our Vegas Odds page, they are hardly a stackable offense and also a predominantly RH offense. Mike Pelfrey has allowed RHBs a .365 wOBA since last season, but that comes with a 56.3 GB% and 25.8 Hard%, not exactly a recipe for great success when choosing offensive players. Regardless, Mike Trout (178 wRC+ at home, 176 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may still be the top overall bat on the slate, though players may want to pair him with LHBs Kole Calhoun (111 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Luis Valbuena (125 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) both because LHBs have a .377 wOBA (35.7 Hard%) and for cost savings, as each are fairly affordable on either site. Salary issues may not be much of a problem tonight due to lack of high cost pitching, but players rostering Trout may still need to save a few dollars somewhere.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mike Pelfrey, Kole Calhoun, Luis Valbuena Kevin Gausman aims for another quality outing against an exploitable Royals lineup
Kevin Gausman appears to be rounding into form, holding the Washington Nationals to just two earned runs in seven innings pitched while punching out eight his last time out. Despite a rough start to the season, evidenced by a 15.6% strikeout rate, a 10.6% walk rate, and a 5.09 SIERA thus far, Gausman is still a pitcher with a capable skillset that notched a 23.0% strikeout rate, a 6.0% walk rate, and a 3.81 SIERA last season while posting a 21.9% strikeout rate, a 6.2% walk rate, and a 3.69 SIERA in the 2015 campaign. Meaning, it’s a pretty safe bet that Gausman will regress closer to his numbers in the prior two seasons than continue to pitch as poorly as he had prior to his last start. Based on his historical advanced stats, Gausman would be a great option to consider at a discounted price point against a Kansas City Royals squad that lacks power from both sides of the plate and has struggled mightily in the early going. It’s still tough to stomach rostering Gausman in cash games but he is an intriguing tournament target on both two-pitcher and single pitcher sites considering his peripheral stats indicate some positive regression that has already seemed to begin taking effect. In fact, his 9.1% swinging strike rate is still solid, though not quite up to his normal standards yet, a high .331 BABIP and low 67.1% LOB% were making his surface numbers look a lot worse than he had actually been pitching. As previously mentioned, the consistency of Gausman still reserves him to tournament-only consideration, but the matchup, the ballpark, and advanced stats indicate that he should be able to put together a solid performance to put him in the running for the top point-per-dollar starting pitcher option on Sunday’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs
ORANGE in TB-BOS game headlines the latest MLB weather forecast
We have a fairly mild weather forecast for Sunday’s slate but there a few areas of concern, specifically in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox that is currently classified as ORANGE. This means that a rain delay is likely and a postponement cannot be entirely ruled out, essentially removing starting pitchers from consideration and making hitters much riskier with postponement possibility. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Jacob deGrom possesses massive upside in matchup with free-swinging Brewers lineup
Jacob deGrom is set to toe the rubber this afternoon against the Milwaukee Brewers in search of his fifth double-digit strikeout performance in his last six outings. deGrom has looked like an entirely different pitcher to start the 2017 campaign, specifically in the strikeout department. In deGrom’s first two seasons in the Majors, he notched a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging strike rate in 2014 and a 27.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging strike rate in 2015, so clearly he was not quite the elite strikeout pitcher that’s he been to this point in the early season. However, last season’s dip in strikeouts was likely an anomaly considering deGrom’s 33.3% strikeout rate and 15.6% swinging strike rate this season would easily set a new career-high. Adding to the appeal of deGrom on Sunday’s main slate is the matchup with a Milwaukee squad that own the third-highest strikeout rate (24.3% K%) versus right-handed pitching. Although, there is still plenty of potential for blowup risk with deGrom given the Brewers league-best .214 ISO and eighth-best wOBA (.314) against righties, making a deGrom fade in tournaments more than viable. With that said, deGrom still appears to be the safest and probably highest upside starting pitching option on the main slate given the Brewers low 3.8 runs implied team total and Vegas backing deGrom as a -143 favorite currently. This is one of those situations where the reward greatly outweighs the risk and deGrom should be a cash game staple with tournament winning upside across the industry.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds The Diamondbacks implied team total sits at 5.8 runs, the highest on the main slate
Trevor Williams is set to make his second start of the 2017 campaign on the road tonight at Chase Field against the Arizona Diamondbacks after allowing eight runs, six earned, in just three innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers his last time out. In fact, through two starts, and 27.1 total innings pitched at the Major League level, Williams owns a 7.90 ERA. However, it is worth noting that Williams posted a 2.53 ERA in 19 Triple-A starts last year, and he has notched high ground ball rates in the Minors as well. It’s entirely possible for him to translate these skills to the Majors and has only allowed only a 28.3% hard-hit rate to left-handed batters in his Major League career, and a 28.0% hard-hit rate to righties, while getting extremely unlucky in categories like HR/FB rate, LOB%, and BABIP. This basically means that Williams his pitching much better than his surface numbers suggest and is primed for some positive regression at some point. Whether that comes in this evening’s matchup with Arizona, is anyone’s guess. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks currently own the highest implied runs total (5.8) on the main slate, meaning that Vegas doesn’t expect Williams’ luck to change course anytime soon. The Diamondbacks are also one the hottest teams in the big leagues, and even with A.J. Pollock out of the lineup, there are still plenty of hitting options to target as one-offs or part of a stack in tournaments that is sure to be popular. Paul Goldschmidt (177 wRC+, .456 wOBA, .264 ISO vs RHP) is the clear top option, closely followed by Brandon Drury (159 wRC+, .428 wOBA, .211 ISO vs RHP), Yasmany Tomas (144 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .319 ISO vs RHP), Jake Lamb (136 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .253 ISO vs RHP), and David Peralta (127 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .179 ISO vs RHP). Clearly, Diamondbacks hitters are viable in all formats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Trevor Cahill aims to remedy his 11.0% BB% in matchup versus White Sox and their MLB-worst BB% vs RHP
Trevor Cahill is looking to complete his third consecutive solid outing as he faces off with the Chicago White Sox tonight after holding the Texas Rangers scoreless in 5.1 innings pitched in his previous start. Cahill has been a daily fantasy sensation this season, as he has drastically increased his strikeout rate to 30.1% up from a career 17.1% rate and 23.2% whiff rate last season. The uptick in strikeouts appears to be real since they are backed up by a great 13.9% swinging strike rate, as strange as it sounds, Cahill is now an elite strikeout pitcher. Additionally, outside of the high 11.0% walk rate, there is very little in his advanced metrics to suggest that this newfound strikeout ability isn’t sustainable. Cahill will have the added benefit of toeing the rubber against a White Sox squad that ranks 29th in wRC+ and wOBA, 27th in ISO, sixth in strikeout rate, and 30th (dead last) in walk rate versus right-handed pitching. Cahill has seen his price tag rise a bit across the industry, but it is certainly warranted since he appears to be a legit starting pitcher with elite strikeout upside if he is able to pitch deeper into games, which is in the realm of possibility if he is able to keep the walks in checks versus this free-swinging Chicago lineup. Therefore, Cahill is the clear top pitching option on the main slate given his overall skillset and pitching profile in 2017 and it doesn’t hurt that he also draws the easiest matchup among pitchers this evening. Feel free to fire him up in all formats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Following the HOU-NYY game PPD, there are no rain concerns in the latest MLB weather forecast
The Houston Astros and New York Yankees made our decisions much easier by postponing their game this afternoon in plenty of time before lock on the early slate. This leaves us with basically no concern about the weather among the remaining afternoon games across Major League Baseball, as the worst risk in the latest MLB weather forecast is classified as GREEN. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page