DFS Alerts
Zack Greinke projects for lowest ownership among four $10K pitchers
Due to their enormous run projection (6.97) and cheap middle of the order bats (Happ, Candelario, Russell), most Cubs bats have ownership projections in the 20% range tonight on either site. Top contrarian ratings (ContR) go to guys like Neil Walker, who has excellent career numbers with four HRs against Zack Greinke, and Mitch Moreland against Lance Lynn (LHBs career .345 wOBA), both projected for minimal ownership on either site. Zack Greinke projects to be the least popular of the four most expensive pitchers tonight, expected to be in 12.5% of lineups or less on either site, while potential top value JC Ramirez may be in over 30% of DraftKings lineups against the White Sox. Eduardo Rodriguez and his 29.6 K%, 14.5 SwStr% is surprisingly projected for 10% or fewer of lineups on either site despite the $8K price tag. Premium subscribers can see projected ownership information for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Eduardo Rodriguez, J.C. Ramirez, Ian Happ, Jeimer Candelario, Addison Russell, Mitch Moreland, Neil Walker
Harper, Trout and Goldschmidt all project for big nights.
Bryce Harper (171 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP since 2015 vs Chad Kuhl), Mike Trout (178 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP since 2015 vs Derek Holland) and Paul Goldschmidt (173 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP since 2015 vs Tommy Milone) are all monsters tonight according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections with Anthony Rizzo (143 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2015 vs Bronson Arroyo) just behind with the wind blowing out to center at Wrigley. In order to afford them along with some pitching, players may want to consider Ian Happ (4.57 Pt/$/K) on FanDuel ($2.2K). On DraftKings, both Jeimer Candelario (2.23 Pt/$/K) and Addison Russel (2.23 Pt/$/K) project as strong values for $3.5K or less and less than 20% projected ownership. JC Ramirez has struggled in recent outings (six strikeouts, 4.2 SwStr% last two), but perhaps deserves another shot against the White Sox (73 wRC+ vs RHP). He projects as a top two value value for $7.2K or less on either site.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Jeimer Candelario, Ian Happ, Addison Russell, J.C. Ramirez Oakland's 42.3% FB% against RHP is the highest in the league; they face Chase De Jong and his 47.1% FB% on Tuesday
Although De Jong doesn’t have a huge sample size as the rookie has only allowed 68 balls in play, the stabilization point for a pitcher’s ground and fly ball rates is around 70 BIP. Through three starts and 18.1 innings pitched, De Jong has posted a low 29.4% GB%, but he’s only allowed a 29.4% Hard%. Against left-handed batters, that hard contact rate is an above-average 36.1% though. Oakland has plenty of fly-ball hitters, such as Matt Joyce, who has a 42.2% FB%, 18.0% HR/FB, and 38.2% hard contact rate against RHP over the past two seasons. Joyce may be due for some positive regression; his .174 BABIP, .271 wOBA, and .176 ISO against righties this year are well below his career .280 BABIP, .346 wOBA, and .176 ISO. Most notably, lefty Yonder Alonso hasn’t been a big fly ball hitter over his career, but he’s posted a 51.5% FB% this season, along with a 25.7% HR/FB, and a 36.8%. Although the first two figures may be unsustainable, he’s made a point to change the mechanics of his swing this season – in fact, FanGraphs declared him the “new poster boy for the fly ball revolution” just a week ago. Through is improvements, he’s produced a .341 ISO and .435 wOBA against RHP. Similarly, switch hitter Jed Lowrie has improved his career-low 34.3% FB% against RHP last year to 48.4% in 2017 with an 11.3% increase in his Hard%, bringing it to 40.4%. As a result, his ISO is up to .193 (from .067 in 2016, .143 career) and his wOBA is .360 (.278 in 2016, .312 career). The left-handed Stephen Vogt has a career 45.6% FB% and .169 ISO against RHP, although he’s more mediocre when it comes to HR/FB (9.6%), Hard% (28.6%), and wOBA (.324). Attacking from the right side of the plate, Khris Davis has a 43.7% FB%, 32.3% HR/FB, 46.5% Hard%, .302 ISO, .346 wOBA in split this season – since 2015, he’s posted a 26.6% HR/FB rate across 904 plate appearances against righties with a 41.7% FB%, 39.0% Hard%, .278 ISO, and 131 wRC. Ryon Healy (42.1% FB%, 12.5% HR/FB, 30.9% Hard %, .182 ISO, .322 wOBA since 2016 in split) is another righty in play tonight. With De Jong on the hill, Oakland is definitely worth a look as a GPP stack tonight. Their implied total is just 4.2 runs, which may keep their ownership down, but De Jong has a SIERA of 6.26 this season and he’s given up six earned runs in two of his three starts (one of which was just 2.2 innings against the Indians). Plus, Seattle’s bullpen holds the fifth-highest ERA (5.24) and slugging percentage (.456) this season. Part of the reason their implied total is low, in addition to playing in a pitcher’s park, may be due to the fact they’re 25th in runs per game (3.82), however, they’re above average with a team 103 wRC+ against RHP (13th).
Miguel Sano mashes LHP (141 wRC+, .267 ISO career) and ground ball pitchers
While the Minnesota Twins have just a team 85 wRC+ and 6.5 HR/FB vs LHP, they have several RHBs that project much better against southpaws. Miguel Sano (141 wRC+, .267 ISO career), Brian Dozier (123 wRC+, .256 ISO since 2015), Kennys Vargas (154 wRC+, .216 ISO career) and Robbie Grossman (141 wRC+, .179 ISO since 2015) have all had great success against LHP. Additionally, Kyle Freeland has been an extreme ground ball pitcher (65.9%), but with just a 15.1 K%. The Twins have not had many opportunities against ground ball pitchers this year (179 PAs), but Vargas (13 PAs) and Sano (18 PAs) have both homered twice. Robbie Grossman (0 for 12) is the only one of the four who appears to have a difficult time against worm burners so far.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Kennys Vargas, Kyle Freeland, Robbie Grossman Yankees top offense vs RHP (128 wRC+) and vs fly ball pitchers (143 sOPS+)
Aside from being the top offense vs RHP (128 wRC+, 18.5 HR/FB) the Yankees are also the top offense vs fly ball pitchers (143 sOPS+ via Baseball-Reference). While much of that is due to Yankee Stadium and a transition to a larger park in Kansas City should lessen the impact of the offense, Jason Hammel (5.97 ERA, 4.73 SIERA) has greatly struggled no matter how you look at it and Yankee bats such as Aaron Judge (153 wRC+, .325 ISO vs RHP) and Gary Sanchez (172 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP) can hit it out of any park. Aaron Hicks (205 sOPS+ in 35 PAs vs fly ball pitchers) and Starlin Castro (196 sOPS+ in 53 PAs) have also handled fly ball pitchers extremely well.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Jason Hammel, Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro Pujols and Trout have a combined seven HRs and highest aEV (10 BBE min.) vs Derek Holland
Albert Pujols has homered four times against Derek Holland in 40 PAs (96.4 mph aEV on 14 Statcast recorded BBEs) and Mike Trout has homered three times in 51 PAs (94.5 mph aEV on 10 BBEs). These are the two highest exit velocities for any batter with at least 10 recorded BBEs against any pitcher tonight. Players don’t need additional reasons to roster Trout, but this perhaps makes he and Pujols a nice mini-stack against Holland. Each has a total of seven extra-base hits against lefty. Neil Walker has also had some success against Zack Greinke with four HRs in 29 PAs. Only four BBEs have been recorded by Statcast however, with a 94.3 mph aEV. Greinke has struck him out just four times.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Derek Holland, Neil Walker, Zack Greinke Stephen Strasburg has highest K Prediction tonight (7.81), facing Pittsburgh lineup without Polanco
There are four pitchers in a very similar price range between $10K and $12K on either site tonight, but Stephen Strasburg (23.7 K%, 11 SwStr%) appears to be in the best spot in Pittsburgh tonight (76 wRC+ vs RHP) and occupies the top slot on the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor (7.81) for the main slate. The next closest pitcher is Yu Darvish (6.99) facing the Phillies (22.9 K% vs RHP) at home. Both are closely grouped with Dallas Keuchel (at Miami) and Zack Greinke (vs NY Mets) in the RotoGrinders Player Projections as the top overall arms, but Strasburg may get a further bump with the absence of Polanco tonight. Eduardo Rodriguez is the other arm to watch, despite a low strikeout projection. His 29.6 K% and 14.5 SwStr% lead the main slate, while facing a Cardinal lineup with an 84 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs LHP. He’s calmed his walk rate to 10.6% with a total of just three over his last three starts (72 BF) and costs just $8K tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Yu Darvish, Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke Five hitters have at least a 299 wRC+, 40 Hard% over the last week.
Tommy Joseph is the hottest bat in the league (10 PA min.) over the last week with a 355 wRC+ (41.7 Hard%, 3 HRs). While he faces one of the top pitchers on the board in Yu Darvish (.RHBs .281 wOBA, 28.2 Hard% since last season), he’s been a bit more vulnerable this season with a double digit walk rate and reduced strikeout rate. The park boost in Texas along with the low cost could make Joseph a viable contrarian option if he continues batting cleanup. J.D. Martinez is also red-hot upon his return from injury (.335 wRC+, 71.4 Hard%, 2 HRs). Looking to make up for lost time, Martinez is hammering baseballs and faces a lefty (Wade Miley), who has allowed RHBs a .351 wOBA since last season. Justin Bour (308 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, 4 HRs) is NOT in the lineup against a lefty tonight and would not be an option against Dallas Keuchel even if he were. Mike Trout (302 wRC+, 43.8 Hard%, 4 HRs) is an absolute monster tonight. He faces Derek Holland, whom he has homered three times against, and has homered four straight times. He was in over 50% of lineups last night on the half slate and may be in as many tonight with double the games. Yasmani Grandal (299 wRC+, 55 Hard%, 1 HR) has just a 4.3 K% and is facing a pitcher (Ty Blach) who has struck out just 12 of 120 RHBs, despite a .295 wOBA allowed. Perhaps due to the extremely negative run environment, Grandal is an affordable catching option tonight.
Other tagged players: Tommy Joseph, Mike Trout, Justin Bour, Yasmani Grandal Brewers have a 118 wRC+ and 22.4 HR/FB vs LHP, all of Richard's 10 HRs since 2016 to RHBs
The Brewers are implied for just 3.87 runs in a negative run environment in San Diego, but may offer an affordable contrarian stacking opportunity against Clayton Richard, an extreme ground ball pitcher with a size-able platoon split. RHBs have a .367 wOBA and all 10 HRs he’s surrendered since last season. LHBs have just a .275 wOBA, 80.7 GB% and 16.5 Hard% against him. The Brewers have very few LHBs on the roster though. While they strike out a lot, they have a 118 wRC+ and 22.4 HR/FB against LHP, along with a 21.0 HR/FB on the road. Consider Jonathan Villar (123 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Domingo Santana (142 wRC+, .234 ISO vs LHP career) as top bats with Jett Bandy (137 wRC+, .304 ISO vs LHP career) and Jesus Aguilar (if he plays) for savings. No RH Brewer should be off limits in this lineup though.
Other tagged players: Domingo Santana, Jett Bandy, Jesus Aguilar, Clayton Richard Brad Miller scratched Tuesday; Daniel Robertson now playing 2nd, Kevin Kiermaier now batting 2nd
Miller has been scratched from Tuesday’s lineup, which will lead to Kevin Kiermaier slotting up to the two hole and Daniel Robertson manning the 2nd base spot.
As reported by: Marc Topkin
Cubs implied for nearly seven runs against Arroyo with wind blowing out at Wrigley
The Cubs have in insanely high implied run line of 6.97 tonight, according to our Vegas Odds page. No, they’re not playing in Colorado, it’s just Bronson Arroyo with the wind blowing out (up to 30 mph to center) at Wrigley. Stack your Cubs, obviously, with Bryant (137 wRC+, .223 ISO career vs RHP) and Rizzo (143 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2015) on top. RHBs actually have a .383 wOBA against Arroyo with LHBs a .324 wOBA this year, though both hit him hard at about a 35% clip with the majority of his contact in the air. Willson Contreras (109 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP career) would be a good for some low cost exposure if in the lineup, as would Addison Russell (92 wRC+, .148 ISO vs RHP career).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell J.C. Ramirez great pivot option off of top arms on Tuesday night
Most of the masses today will be flocking towards the like of Dallas Keuchel, Zach Greinke, Yu Darvish, and Stephen Strasburg but if you’re looking to pay up for hitting or need an affordable SP2 on sites like DraftKings, you’re going to have to find some value at the pitching position. One option that stands out today is J.C. Ramirez of the Angels as he gets a very positive match up against the Chicago White Sox.
Las Vegas has given the White Sox the lowest implied run total of the night at 3.2 and made the Angels prohibitive favorites putting Ramirez in line for the win. The White Sox have struggled mightily against right-handed pitching and receive a negative park shift today in Los Angeles. The White Sox are 29th in the league in wOBA against RHP and strike out at the 5th highest rate. Ramirez doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside as his K rate this season is only 22.2% with a modest 9.6% swinging strike rate but this is largely a pitcher we are targeting because of his price tag and his match up. On DraftKings, he’s a viable SP2 option (even viable as a SP in Arcade Mode) and also worth consideration as a cash-game option.
Clarifying SEA lineup: Segura, Heredia, Cruz, Seager, Valencia, Motter, Gamel, Gosewisch, Dyson
With Robinson Cano scratched, the Mariners will move Taylor Motter over to 2nd base with Jarrod Dyson now playing CF and batting 9th after initially being left out of Monday’s lineup.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Lineups Page Robinson Cano scratched on Monday
Cano has been scratched due to a lingering quad issue. We’ve yet to get an official replacement for him as of this writing, but we’ll update as information becomes available.
As reported by: Shannon Drayer San Diego (vs Milwaukee) only spot worth mentioning in Kevin's evening forecast
With only three games being played outside of domes and all three of those in California, you’d think the forecast would be clear and it is for the most part, though Kevin sees the potential for a short delay in San Diego (vs Milwaukee), but not anything that should be too threatening. This is good news because with Luis Perdomo potentially being the most popular pitcher on the slate, anything worse than a short delay could be a problem. Read Kevin’s full report on the Weather page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page