DFS Alerts
On a slate with abundant pitching options, Chris Sale still stands above the rest
If looking at results and advanced metrics, Chris Sale has been the best pitcher in Major League Baseball this season by a wide margin. This afternoon he’ll take the mound in search of his seventh consecutive start with double-digit strikeouts against a Tampa Rays squad that has a league-high 26.7% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. The Rays have also exhibited low power (.136 ISO) and all-around unimpressive numbers against southpaws (97 wRC+, .308 wOBA), unlike their abilities versus right-handed pitching thus far. Additionally, the Rays aforementioned struggles versus lefties are highly unlikely to see any positive regression in a matchup with Sale. The Rays used to be a team that we didn’t go out of our way to target with left-handed pitchers, but they have been a shell of their former selves to this point, and Sale is in a class of his own and has shown almost no weakness in any aspect of his game this season, evidenced by a 2.18 SIERA, 37.6% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate, and 16.5% swinging strike rate. Clearly, Sale brings dominant upside to the mound each and every start and has managed to pitch past the seventh inning in all but one start this season, including three of his last four outings where he pitched at least eight innings. There isn’t much of case to be made for fading Sale this afternoon, even on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings, in a mathcup where he receives the added benefit of facing off against the team that has struck out the most against southpaws this season. Sale clearly stands far and above as the top pitching option on the entire slate, and it’s not really close, meaning he should be in every single lineup we build for the early slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Saturday's game between HOU-NYY has been postponed due to rain
This afternoon’s game between the Houston Astros and Houston Astros has officially been postponed due to rain. The teams will play a single-admission doubleheader on Sunday to make up for the canceled game. Be sure to remove any players from this game from your daily fantasy lineups as they will not accrue fantasy points for Saturday early slate contests.
As reported by: Erik Boland Plenty of Outfield help for players looking to save salary tonight
The demand for expensive pitching may not be that over-whelming tonight, but player are likely going to load up on expensive bats, meaning they’ll still need to find savings somewhere. Luckily, there are some top and middle of the lineup bargains to help everyone do so tonight. We start off in the outfield with Joey Rickard (130 wRC+, .183 ISO vs LHP career) for just $2.7K or less against Danny Duffy (RHBs .332 wOBA, 34.1 Hard% since 2015). Tommy Pham (134 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) moves up to second for just a few hundred more than Rickard. He faces Eddie Butler. RHBs had a .384 wOBA against him while pitching for the Rockies. Curtis Granderson (128 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.5K on FanDuel against Matt Garza (LHBs .369 wOBA, 34.8 Hard% since 2015), the same price as Stephen Vogt (111 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jed Lowrie (95 wRC+ vs RHP since 2016) against Andrew Cashner (LHBs .372 wOBA since 2015). Jordy Mercer (105 wRC+, .148 ISO vs LHP since 2015) occasionally moves to the top of the lineup vs LHP (unconfirmed) and could serve as an alternate to Corey Seager for a low price ($3.1K DK, $2.3K FD) in Arizona (Corbin .356 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015). Ezequiel Carrera (85 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.7K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Tommy Pham, Stephen Vogt, Jed Lowrie, Jordy Mercer, Corey Seager, Ezequiel Carrera
Remaining games without any concern according to the afternoon forecast
David is filling in for Kevin today and aside from the Philadelphia Washington game, which was already postponed, there appear to be no remaining issues for tonight's game in his afternoon forecast. He also mentions wind blowing out in Texas (to right) and San Francisco (to center), but the afternoon forecast was otherwise quiet. He may update again if anything changes and players can find that information on our Weather page. Be sure to follow David on Twitter too (DavidWolter1) for further updates.
Dodgers and Diamondbacks projected to be extremely popular tonight
While a couple of Oakland batters not named Yonder Alonso crack the 10 potentially most popular hitters on FanDuel tonight the board is otherwise full of Dodgers and Diamondbacks on both sites tonight. Alonso is proejcted to be the third most popular First Baseman (7.5%) on FanDuel ($3.6K) at a loaded position tonight, where Cody Bellinger is the top projected bat and will be more popular on DraftKings due to OF eligibility. First Base is loaded tonight and players shouldn’t have to worry about ownership rates too much. In fact, Matt Carpenter is one of four First Base bats with an enormous contrarian rating and just 1% projected ownership on FanDuel in a great spot against Eddie Butler. On the mound, Clayton Kershaw is still projected to be the most popular arm on the slate, though no pitcher is expected to reach more than 20% on FanDuel. Someone like Scott Feldman, who’s having a nice year and recently shut out the Giants, could be an interesting SP2 pickup on DraftKings (3% for $7.8K). He gets a significant park upgrade for the rematch. Premium subscribers can see projections for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Yonder Alonso, Matt Carpenter, Scott Feldman RotoGrinders Team Stackability tool sees Boston as the most stackable offense tonight
RotoGrinders Team Stackability tool sees Boston, not the Dodgers, as the most stackable offense tonight. The tool takes into account things like total offensive rank (wOBA), wOBA vs. the handedness of the opposing pitcher and the number of times that the team has scored 8 or more runs in one game over the course of the season (EXPLODE), all of which Boston ranks number one in. They also score top four in Vegas line and opposing pitcher ERA and HRs allowed. The Dodgers, of course, are second.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Team Stackability Friday's PHI-WAS game has been postponed
The game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals tonight has officially been postponed. The teams will play a day-night doubleheader on Sunday to make up for the canceled game. Be sure to remove any players from this contest from your daily fantasy lineups.
Favorable conditions for Yonder Alonso, Oakland lefties with wind blowing out to right in Texas
It’s another cold evening in the north east with temperatures in New York (vs Houston), Cleveland (vs Minnesota) and Boston (vs Tampa Bay) not expected to reach 60 degrees tonight, all with a light breeze blowing in, perhaps hampering the ball’s ability to carry, though we don’t doubt the power of guys like Judge or Sano to muscle it out of any park under most conditions. The chilly temperatures might give someone like Lance McCullers an extra edge against the Yankees, who have pummeled RHP at home this year. Texas is projected to be the warmest outdoor game tonight (mid-70s), depending on whether Arizona opens the roof or not, with a light breeze from 5 to 15 mph out to right field. Conditions should be great for someone like Yonder Alonso (5 HRs over the last week, 50% fly ball rate this year) against Andrew Cashner (LHBs .372 wOBA since 2015).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Corey Seager is the only Dodger among top six overall bats via RotoGrinders Player Projections
Despite the game in Coors tonight, Corey Seager (157 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP career) is the only batter from that game to crack the top six overall hitters according to tonight’s RotoGrinders Player Projections, which have Bryce Harper (169 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP since 2015) leading all players on each site. He faces the rookie Nick Pivetta at home tonight. Despite a league average strikeout rate through two starts, Pivetta has allowed a ton of hard contact (45.7 Hard-Soft% with a 91.2 mph aEV and four HRs). From a value standpoint, David Peralta (131 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.9K on FanDuel and usually bats second for the offense with the second highest projected run total tonight (5.37), while DraftKings likes a couple of sub-$3K bats near the top of the order (Ezequiel Carrera and Joey Rickard), along with Mitch Moreland ($3.4K) all for 2.3 Pt/$/K or better. Clayton Kershaw is still the top projected arm on the slate, even at Coors, but Joe Bagini could be a viable SP2. The converted reliever struck out four of 15 batters in his first start and is only projected to throw around 70 pitches tonight. In 90.1 major league innings (86 out of the pen), he has a 21.8 K%, he also has a 54.2 GB% and 23.0 Hard%. He still sat around 94 mph in his start and already has a multi-pitch repertoire, costing just $4.9K on DraftKings, facing a Seattle lineup without Robinson Cano. The projections have him at 2.91 Pt/$/K. FanDuel has Kershaw as the top value (4.45 Pt/$/K) as well as the top overall arm at a cost below $10K tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, David Peralta, Ezequiel Carrera, Joey Rickard, Mitch Moreland, Clayton Kershaw, Joseph Biagini Brad Miller has homered four times against Rick Porcello with a 94.8 mph aEV (14 BBEs)
Brad Miller has homered four times against Rick Porcello with a 94.8 mph aEV (14 BBEs). One of those was in Porcello’s only start against the Rays this year in which he allowed four HRs, but Miller seems to see the ball fairly well with six extra-base hits in 25 total PAs as the two face each other frequently in the same division. Miller has struck out seven times, but the quality of contact seems to hold some merit here. Jay Bruce has homered three times against Matt Garza (90.9 mph aEV on seven BBEs) with seven extra-base hits in 33 PAs in a matchup that goes back a few years with both players being based in the NL Central. Edwin Encarnacion has homered three times in 34 PAs against Ervin Santana with a 98.9 mph aEV on just six Statcast recorded BBEs. Among players with at least 10 BBEs against tonight’s opposing pitcher, Anthony Rizzo has the highest aEV (97.2 mph, 18 BBEs) against Mike Leake, though he has homered just twice in 44 PAs. Going back to Rick Porcello, Evan Longoria has the most Statcast recorded BBEs (22) against tonight’s opponent and the second highest aEV (96.7 mph) among those with at least 10 BBEs, though he has struck out 13 times with just one HR in 51 career PAs with two walks.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Rick Porcello, Jay Bruce, Matt Garza, Edwin Encarnacion, Ervin Santana, Anthony Rizzo, Mike Leake Only Kershaw, McCullers and Porcello have a strikeout rate above 22% tonight
Clayton Kershaw is projected for a board leading 8.56 strikeouts tonight according to the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor and is also projected to be the top overall arm via the RotoGrinders Player Projections. He’s facing an offense with an 82 wRC+ at home and 25.1 K% vs LHP at a reduced price. It seems too good to be true, except that he’s pitching at Coors tonight and both his K% and SwStr% are down about four points from the last two seasons. 95% of pitchers would still kill for a 24.3 K-BB% and he’s still a top play tonight, especially without any other clear options. The next best arm is in Yankee Stadium tonight. Lance McCullers (28.9 K%, 12.3 SwStr%) has been inconsistent with strikeouts from start to start, but has dominated at the point of contact (58.1 GB%, -2.8 Hard-Soft%). He faces an offense with a 145 wRC+ at home and 131 wRC+ vs RHP. Rick Porcello is the only other arm with a strikeout rate above 22% tonight. He sits second on the Daily K Predictor (7.42) and is not in as bad of a spot at home against Tampa Bay (25.9 K% vs RHP), but has allowed four of his seven HRs this season to the Rays and has allowed a concerning 40.4% hard contact rate this season (11.0 Barrels/BBE). There are no safe arms tonight, nor are there any low priced ones with high upside. Perhaps players may be looking more into potentially higher floor guys like Mike Leake (at home vs the Cubs – 86 wRC vs RHP) or Scott Feldman (at San Francisco – 70 wRC+ at home and vs RHP) if the high priced, higher risk arms aren’t as appealing.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Rick Porcello, Lance McCullers, Mike Leake, Scott Feldman Aaron Altherr has a major league leading 357 wRC+ (4 HRs) over the last week
Aaron Altherr has a major league leading 357 wRC+ (54.6 Hard%, 4 HRs) over the last week (10 PA min.). He’s in a difficult spot tonight against an excellent contact manager in Tanner Roark (RHBs .282 wOBA, 21.3 Hard%). Four other batters join him with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week though. Robinson Cano (332 wRC+, 55 Hard%, 3 HRs) faces converted reliever Joe Biagini and then probably four to five innings of the Toronto bullpen, but he was a late scratch last night and has injury concerns. Trey Mancini (322 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%, 2 HRs) is a must for some exposure against LHP. Danny Duffy has been keeping it in the yard this year, but is pitching with reduced velocity and a plummeting SwStr%, while RHBs had 41 HRs against him from 2015 through 2016. Nick Ahmed (309 wRC+, 25 Hard%, 1 HR) is the biggest surprise here and least supported by hard contact, but his team has the second highest implied run line tonight (5.37) against Tyler Glasnow. Yonder Alonso (303 wRC+, 41.2 Hard%, 5 HRs) has worked hard to elevate his launch angle and is generating half of his contact in the air this season. He’s in a great spot against Andrew Cashner (LHBs .372 wOBA since 2015) in Texas at a low cost on DraftKings ($3.8K).
Other tagged players: Robinson Cano, Trey Mancini, Nick Ahmed, Yonder Alonso LHBs hammer Cashner (.372 wOBA since 2015) and Garza (.369 wOBA)
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks only two implied run lines above five tonight. The reason the Rockies are projected for a very mediocre 4.19 runs should be fairly obvious (it’s Kershaw). There’s nothing surprising about that, but there may not be an entirely trustworthy pitcher on the entire slate considering that the few elite arms are in terrible spots either in Coors or Yankee Stadium tonight. Ten additional teams have implied run lines between 4.5 and 5.0 tonight, meaning offense should be fairly well spread out after Dodger bats and Coors fading players should be able to still put together potentially high firepower offenses. First base is once again loaded with Thames (173 wRC+, .352 ISO vs RHP – Harvey), Carpenter (150 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP – Butler), Bruce (119 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP – Garza), Freeman (160 wRC+, 283 ISO vs RHP – Urena), and Alonso (303 wRC+, 5 HRs last seven days, 50% fly ball rate this year vs Cashner) all viable options aside from Bellinger (also OF eligible on DK) and Goldschmidt. While Garza has been better in three starts against poor offenses this season (Reds, Braves & Pirates), LHBs still have a 369 wOBA against him since 2015. Mets LHBs (Conforto, Bruce, Granderson, and Walker) comprise a viable and more affordable stack to the top projected offenses with a significant park upgrade in Milwaukee. Of the four, only Granderson has a hard hit rate below 40% over the last week and he costs just $3.7K on DK, $2.5K on FD. A’s LHBs also look to be in a great overall spot in Texas against Andrew Cashner (LHBs .372 wOBA since 2015), though we’re looking at cheaper bats like Joyce, Lowrie and Vogt over offensive prowess aside from Alonso and K.Davis, who plays strongly against same handed pitching (125 wRC+, .278 ISO since 2015).
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, Yonder Alonso, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Stephen Vogt, Jed Lowrie, Eric Thames, Matt Carpenter, Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt Jim Adduci scratched from Tigers lineup; Andrew Romine will start in his place
Adduci has been scratched from the Detroit Tigers lineup for tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Angels due to an undisclosed reason. In his place, Andrew Romine will play center field and bat eighth, sliding Tyler Collins over to right field. This lineup change moves Collins and James McCann up one spot in the batting order and they are now hitting sixth and seventh respectively.
Other tagged players: Andrew Romine Orioles-Nationals start time delayed on Thursday
This tilt won’t kick off on time due to rain. A start time hasn’t been announced as of this writing, but the good news is that precipitation appears to be clearing as we get later into the night, so this one should play once things get rolling. Pitchers still carry some risk here – both because of weather and plus offenses opposing them – but hitters are still in play.
As reported by: Jamal Collier