DFS Alerts
Indians, White Sox prowess vs fly ball pitchers may support fades of Verlander, Duffy
Justin Verlander may have a number of factors working against him tonight. Cleveland soundly thumped him for nine runs (three HRs) in four innings the last time they faced him. Wind gusts could be blowing out to left at 30 mph, the Tribe has 125 wRC+vs RHP, and they also a 122 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) vs fly ball pitchers, representing an 18% increase above their overall OPS+. A similar situation presents itself in Kansas City tonight. Though there don’t appear to be significant factor, the White Sox similarly have a 125 wRC+ vs LHP and 113 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers, a 30% increase above their overall OPS+. On the other side of the spectrum, players looking for additional reasons to support Trevor Cahill (29.1 K%, 14.1 SwStr%) at home against the Rockies (74 wRC+ on the road, 78 wRC+ vs RHP) can also consider Colorado’s 76 sOPS+ vs ground ball pitchers.
As reported by: Baseball Reference Team Splits Other tagged players: Danny Duffy, Trevor Cahill
Wind conditions primed to boost power in several spots tonight
In his morning forecast, Kevin identified no less than five parks with potential winds of at least 10 mph and potentially more than 20 blowing out in one direction or another. Artificial power boosts may favor LHBs in Washington (Harper, Murphy vs Walker & Lamb, Herrmann vs Roark) with a breezy 10 mph drift out to right. Aaron Judge would hardly need a 20 mph boost to left-center against Mat Latos, but Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, and Steve Pearce may also benefit if they can generate contact in the air against Masahiro Tanaka (55.4 GB% this year, but just 43.9% vs RHBs since 2015). Baltimore batters have to make contact off Chris Sale first and even then, the strongest of the gusts (20+ mph) are blowing out to RF in Fenway, perhaps benefiting Chris Davis most. LHBs have a .262 wOBA against Sale since 2015. Good luck on that. Benintendi, Moreland and Bradley certainly deserve increased attention against Alec Asher though. Cleveland has a tough pitching matchup with Kluber facing Verlander so perhaps “15-20mph, gusts 30, blowing mostly out to left, a bit right to left” means you downgrade pitchers more than anything, but it could be incentive for a contrarian stack. Each offense has punished the opposing starter in their worst outings of the season already this year and Carlos Santana has some great career numbers against Verlander (8 HRs). Additionally, Cincinnati is already power friendly and 15 mph out to center just gives all of the power bats in that game an additional boost. Pittsburgh doesn’t have much of it in today’s lineup, but Tyler Glasnow lives dangerously with a 15.5 BB% and Cincinnati’s two through six batters all have an ISO of .240 or better this season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Jake Lamb, Chris Herrmann, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, Steve Pearce, Chris Davis, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Jackie Bradley, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Carlos Santana Carlos Santana has eight HRs and a 92.6 mph aEV against Justin Verlander
There have been many variations of Justin Verlander over the last few seasons, but Carlos Santana seems to hammer all of them. He wins the BvP trophy today with eight HRs and a 92.6 mph aEV (17 BBE) in 79 career PAs against the Detroit righty. These two see each other a number of times per season and Santana hasn’t been in the league all that long, so this data should have some relevance. Seven other players have three HRs against the pitcher whom they are facing tonight, a few of which stand out. Matt Carpenter adds a 97.5 mph aEV on 17 BBE against Wily Peralta. He has nine extra-base hits in 48 PAs overall. Justin Upton’s three HRs against Corey Kluber come in just 15 PAs and a 103.8 mph aEV on six BBE. Two of Matt Kemp’s three bombs off Matt Harvey (12 PAs) came in one game this year. Mike Moustakas has perpetrated some lefty on lefty violence against Jose Quintana. Along with the three HRs (45 PAs), he has a 99.8 mph aEV on 8 BBE recorded by Statcast.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Justin Verlander, Matt Carpenter, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Mike Moustakas Aaron Judge, Jed Gyorko rate highly on today's RotoGrinders HR Predictor
While there are normally some small sample size kinks to be cautiously weighed when utilizing the RotoGrinders HR Predicoter (perhaps Christian Arroyo 9.91% at the top against Alex Wood), Aaron Judge in second place with a 6.79% HR rate projection is probably no mistake. Mat Latos has allowed 25 HRs in just under 200 major league innings since 2015 and Judge is tied for the major league lead (with Sano) in Barrels/BBE at 25.5%. We have to drop down a few more spots past Mancini (vs Sale), Thames (vs Martinez) and Gallo (vs Fiers) to get to someone who’s been around the league for a while. Jedd Gyorko (6.14%) is probably in a better spot than most people realize. He has punished RHP to the tune of a 137 wRC+ and .317 ISO since last season, while RHBs have a .352 wOBA against Wily Peralta since 2015.
As reported by: RotoGrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Jedd Gyorko, Trey Mancini, Eric Thames, Joey Gallo, Christian Arroyo Trevor Cahill (29.1 K%, 14.1 SwStr%) projected higher than Lester, Shoemaker via Daily K Predictor
Chris Sale has struck out at least 10 batters in four straight starts and tops the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor with a projection of 8.98 tonight, trailed by Carlos Martinez by a bit more than half a strikeout (8.34). While Martinez has certainly shown upside, he’s been more erratic with a few more red flags (decreased ground ball rate, more walks, hard contact), which can be an issue against a powerful and patience Milwaukee offense, but one that also strikes out a lot (25.9% vs RHP). A cheaper source of strikeouts could be Trevor Cahill tonight (29.1 K%, 14.1 SwStr%). He costs just $5K on DraftKings, a perfect SP2 compliment to someone like Sale ($12.5K) and is projected above Jon Lester and Matt Shoemaker on the K Predictor.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Carlos Martinez, Jon Lester, Matt Shoemaker Miguel Sano has a 443 wRC+ and 75 Hard% with three HRs over the last week
Miguel Sano has a 443 wRC+ and 75 Hard% with three HRs over the last week. He’s the hottest bat in the league currently and facing a returning Sonny Gray. When healthy, Gray can still be a quality arm, but he hasn’t been so over the last year and even at his best had a strikeout rate not much above average. He’s held RHBs on the ground 51.8% of the time on batted balls since 2015, but Sano has a career 47.1 FB% vs RHP. Five more batters have a wRC+ above 300 over the last week. Nelson Cruz (348 wRC+, 52.9 Hard%, 4 HRs) meets Matt Shoemaker (RHBs .327 wOBA since 2015), who has already allowed six HRs and whom Cruz has taken deep twice in 24 PAs against. Ryan Zimmerman (332 wRC+, 52.6 Hard%, 4 HRs) now leads the majors with 15 Barrels according to Statcast. RHBs have a .322 wOBA against Taijuan Walker sinec 2015. Jose Abreu (314 wRC+, 40 Hard%, 2 HRs) faces Danny Duffy (RHBs .322 wOBA since 2015) has allowed 42 HRs to RHBs since the start of 2015. Aaron Judge (311 wRC+, 45.5 Hard%, 4 HRs) faces Mat Latos at Yankee Stadium. Some form of spherical punishment is likely to ensue. Marwin Gonzalez (309 wRC+, 27.3 Hard%) should be in the lineup tonight against LHP Cole Hamels, who has struggled according to peripherals and ERA estimators despite just 3.03 ERA. Dropping below 300 gives us Scott Schebler (292 wRC+, 61.5 Hard%, 3 HRs) too. He should be hitting with runners on base vs Tyler Glasnow (15.5 BB%), against whom LHBs have a .369 wOBA.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Ryan Zimmerman, Jose Abreu, Aaron Judge, Marwin Gonzalez, Scott Schebler Reds (4.5 implied runs) and Cardinals (4.4) stacking alternatives to top projected offenses (NYY, BOS)
Kevin has once again identified several parks with moderate to strong winds blowing out, perhaps enhancing long ball possibilities tonight, though only two offenses have an implied run line above 4.6 (Boston and New York AL both 5.3). Avoiding those offenses, players can still find several strong bats, especially at First Base where Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Matt Carpenter (147 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2015) both face favorable conditions. The entire Cincinnait offense appears viable against Tyler Glasnow, who appears to be a walk machine, consistently attempting to pitch out of trouble and not often succeeding. Players may not wish to attack him due to prospect name recognition, but both LH and RH batters have a wOBA around .370 against him. Consider Scott Schebler (118 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP career) and Adam Duvall (106 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP since 2015). Cardinal teammates of Carpenter, Dexter Fowler (110 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jedd Gyorko (137 wRC+, .317 ISO vs RHP since last season) are also strong candidates against Wily Peralta (RHBs .352 wOBA, LHBs .380 wOBA since 2015). The Cardinals are somehow conservatively projected for just 4.4 runs tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Scott Schebler, Adam Duvall, Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko, Tyler Glasnow, Wily Peralta Start of tonight's PHI-CHC game will be delayed due to rain
The start of Monday night’s game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs has officially been delayed due to rain. This rain delay was fully expected if you took the time to read Kevin Roth’s weather forecast prior to lock, as he had the game classified as YELLOW/ORANGE in his latest update. However, even with the delay, he still expects this game to play through. This means that hitters from both teams still remain fully in play for all formats but pitchers are best avoided, though neither Vincent Velasquez or Brett Anderson should really have been on anyone’s radar to start with considering the blustery conditions out to center field at Wrigley this evening.
As reported by: Matt Breen
Weeks, Collins offer above average bats in top half of lineups at very low costs
While there are potentially a number of value bats on DraftKings, if we’re truly looking for cheap bargains, Rickie Weeks (152 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Tyler Collins (113 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are each in the top half of their lineup for $2.6K or less on either site. While most players may try to find the extra few hundred for Brian McCann (vs Andrew Cashner), players who don’t mind Catchers batting lower in the order and need more savings could look towards Alex Avila (135 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since 2016) or Cameron Rupp (148 wRC+, .286 ISO vs LHP since 2016) for $3.1K or less on DK, $2.6K or less on FanDuel. Brandon Guyer (151 wRC+, .194 ISO vs LHP since 2016) bats sixth against a lefty (Daniel Norris), but costs less than $3K on either site. Not yet confirmed, Andrew Toles (125 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP career) could bat leadoff against Johnny Cueto for more than the minimum. If players are looking for a below average cheap one in the leadoff spot, Peter Bourjos (78 wRC+ vs LHP since 2016) is your man for just $2.7K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Tyler Collins, Brian McCann, Alex Avila, Cameron Rupp, Brandon Guyer, Peter Bourjos Possible rain and wind blowing out to center at Wrigley Field highlight latest MLB weather forecast
There are plenty situations with across the Majors with possible rain and strong winds, but the game most likely to be impacted is the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs. The game is currently classified as YELLOW, meaning that a delay is possible but shouldn’t impact hitters with any type of postponement threat. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Cubs and Astros bats own the top spots on the Projected Ownership page
Cubs and Astros bats are projected to be the most popular tonight and that’s no surprise considering they own the top two implied run lines on a slate without many pitchers there is a high comfort level in attacking. It will be interesting how or if players are able to fit all of those bats in lineups with Clayton Kershaw, projected to be one of the most popular arms, as always. Perhaps that’s why Luis Severino is at 40% on DraftKings according to our Projected Ownership page. Michael Wacha, Jason Vargas and Gerrit Cole are all expected to appear in fewer than 10% of lineups on FanDuel, all viable pivots, capable of strong outings. Aaron Judge could be a potentially under-owned bat against an extreme fly ball pitcher for around $4K on either site with all of the focus on Houston and Chicago. Premium subscribers can see projections for all players on our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Clayton Kershaw, Michael Wacha, Jason Vargas, Luis Severino, Gerrit Cole Welington Castillo scratched; Caleb Joseph now catching and batting 9th
Castillo has been scratched from the Orioles lineup on Monday, and he’ll give way to Caleb Joseph who will catch and bat 9th. It’s still a little unclear why Castillo was scratched in the first place, as it may not even be injury related. The Orioles weren’t an intriguing team target to start with and this swap doesn’t help matters.
As reported by: @Orioles Other tagged players: Caleb Joseph
The Wind is blowing OUT tonight in several spots
Kevin’s morning forecast identified five parks where we could see winds blowing out at15 mph or more, potentially leading towards one of the most wind aided nights in recent history for hitters. Wrigley Field (center) and Cincinnati (left) are the big ones, where wind speeds could reach 30 mph. The Cubs bats may be obvious. They have the highest implied run line on the slate (5.98), but Amir Garrett could be the biggest victim as a left-handed starter in Cincinnati. The Pittsburgh lineup doesn’t have a lot of power, but is predominantly RH. On the other side, at least Gerrit Cole has kept RHBs grounded 50% of the time the last several years. Kansas City, St Louis and Atlanta all have winds around 15 mph blowing out to right. None are particularly power friendly parks, though we don’t know how the new Atlanta park will play (there are rumors it may be LH power friendly). There are certainly matchups where players can take advantage of LH power bats in two of these games. Aside from Moustakas (vs Covey), Conforto and Bruce immediately come to mind against a fly ball prone RHP (Teheran), who has struggled with LHBs (.357 wOBA, 33 HRs allowed since 2015).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Amir Garrett, Gerrit Cole, Jay Bruce, Mike Moustakas, Dylan Covey, Julio Teheran Mike Moustakas (6.1%) favored most among non-rookies (or Korean leaguers) by RotoGrinders HR Predictor
Players have to work through several small sample sizes in the top spots of the RotoGrinders HR Predictor to find Mike Moustakas leading all non-rookies or guys who didn’t play in Korea last year with a 6.1% projected HR rate tonight. While Kansas City is not a power friendly park, the wind is blowing out to right tonight (according to Kevin’s morning report) for his matchup with Dylan Covey, who has walked more batters than he’s struck out and allowed three HRs over three starts. The young players above him are mostly there for good reason. While Christian Arroyo (11.55%) should probably be discarded against Clayton Kershaw, Cody Bellinger (15.02%) has massive power and has occasionally hit atop the lineup since being called up. Eric Thames (7.03%) leads the majors with 11 HRs and Aaron Judge (6.97%) tops pretty much every Statcast measure on fly balls, including most Barrels.
As reported by: RotoGrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Christian Arroyo, Aaron Judge, Eric Thames Luis Severino has an absurd 28.7% K-BB% through four starts this season
Luis Severino continues to chug along in what looks to be a breakout season for this once highly-touted prospect, as he has managed to punch out at least six batters in all four outings while pitching at least seven innings in three of them. Tonight, he’ll take the mound against a disheveled Toronto Blue Jays lineup that is missing several key hitters including Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki. The primary reason to feel good about Severino’s hot start is that there is nothing in the numbers to imply that these type of performances aren’t sustainable. He is striking hitters out at an elite 32.7% mark, with an 11.8% swinging strike rate to back it up, and he checks in with a fantastic 4.0% walk rate to help limit worries of a possible blowup. This all adds up to an elite 2.29 SIERA. With that said, these four starts and 27 innings pitched this season is still far removed from locking Severino’s skillset in stone, but at this point, it seems like a mistake to continue waiting for negative regression, especially against a Toronto squad that is a shell of its former self and simply isn’t hitting well. It may be difficult to pair Severino and Clayton Kershaw in cash games on DraftKings, but if able to field a solid lineup, it is by far the optimal route to take in the starting pitching department. On the other hand, Severino shapes up to be an interesting tournament play on FanDuel, as he has a great chance of finishing as the highest point-per-dollar pitcher and will allow access to a much different roster construction than players that opt for Kershaw in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs