DFS Alerts
Houston bats grab top overall spots and top value positions on RotoGrinders Player Projections page
Three of the top four overall projected bats on the RotoGrinders Player Projections page reside in Houston tonight. Despite Andrew Cashner’s extreme splits (LHBs .375 wOBA, 37.5 Hard%/RHBs .321 wOBA, 28.2 Hard%), all three bat from the right side (Altuve, Springer, Correa). All three are also above average hitters against RHP. Springer and Correa also double as potential top values on FanDuel with each projected for more than 3.5 Pt/$/K at $3.5K or less. Rickie Weeks (152 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since last year) also projects as a top two value on either site, facing Wei-Yin Chen (RHBs .342 wOBA, 32.7 Hard% since 2015) in Miami. Players not paying up for Kershaw tonight can also consider Luis Severino as potentially the top pitching value on FanDuel. Our projections have him potentially being worth 4.6 Pt/$/K, nearly a full quarter of a point per thousand fantasy dollars higher than any other pitcher.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Corporan, Rickie Weeks, Clayton Kershaw, Luis Severino
Middle of Baltimore order has made it a habit of punishing Rick Porcello
There are four players with exactly three HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight. One of them is Didi Gregorius (88 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has done so in 22 PAs with just three strikeouts against Marco Estrada, though he has just an 85.8 mph aEV on 15 BBE. The other three all reside in the middle of the Baltimore lineup. Adam Jones (45 PA/93.2 mph aEV/16 BBE), Chris Davis (37 PA/92.2 mph aEV/12 BBE) and Mark Trumbo (26 PA/109.5 mph aEV/5 BBE) have all made it habit of punishing Rick Porcello, who has allowed six HRs in five starts and is tied for the major league lead with 13 Barrels allowed this season. To add further insult, among batters with at least 10 BBE against tonight’s pitcher, Manny Machado has the highest aEV (96.7 mph/11 BBE), though he has just a double with eight strikeouts in 30 PAs facing Porcello.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, Didi Gregorius Sixteen of 22 pitchers have above average K%, SwStr% or both tonight
It’s a shock when Clayton Kershaw (29.1 K%, 11.9 SwStr%) is on the mound and not projected for the top strikeout total. Tonight is not an exception. He tops the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor (7.12) even against a San Francisco offense that has a reputation for making contact, though they’ve struck out a bit more often this season. He’s the top pitcher on the board by over 10 points on either site according to Player Projections. The only issue would be one of cost. Those who can embrace a bit more risk should be looking at Lance McCullers (29 K%, 12.0 SwStr%). The K Predictor has him at 6.63 tonight, while Player Projections have him in a tighter race as the second best overall arm tonight. It’s hard to find a truly bad spot for strikeouts tonight, as 16 of the 22 pitchers on the board have either an above average K%, above average SwStr% or both. Jason Vargas (28.9 K%, 14.5 SwStr%) is probably the biggest surprise, among those with a SwStr% strong enough to support their strikeout rate. Luis Severino (32.7 K%, 11.8 SwStr%) has the top strikeout rate on the board.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Lance McCullers, Jason Vargas, Luis Severino Couple of the week's hottest bats reside in Wrigley (Bryant, Montero) with winds blowing out tonight
Jose Abreu (376 wRC+) is the hottest hitter in the majors over the last week (via wRC+, 10 PA min.). He’s facing 34 year-old breakout lefty Jason Vargas (RHBs .271 wOBA since 2015) tonight. Despite being a reverse platoon bat in his first couple of seasons, Abreu has a 123 wRC+ and .228 ISO vs LHP since last season. He’s one of the more expensive bats on this list on either site. Aaron Judge (359 wRC+, 62.5 Hard%) and Scott Schebler (347 wRC+, 71.4 Hard%) are the hardest contact makers on this list. Both face quality arms, but Marco Estrada generates fly balls at an extreme rate (RHBs 33 GB% since 2015) and Gerrit Cole (LHBs .307 wOBA) meets the Reds in a park very friendly to LH power. Miguel Montero (312 wRC+, 50 Hard%) is a low cost catcher facing an erratic arm in Vince Velasquez (RHBs .332 wOBA career). He’s affordably $3.1K or less on either site with strong winds blowing out at Wrigley tonight. Marwin Gonzalez (309 wRC+) could be a great value if he finds the top of the lineup tonight. LHBs have a .375 wRC+, 37.5 Hard% against Andrew Cashner since 2015. Gonzalez is a stronger bat from the RH side though (87 wRC+, .145 ISO vs RHP since last season) and may not even be in the lineup tonight. Dipping to the sixth highest wRC+ on the slate over the last week will get you to Kris Bryant (279 wRC+), another likely beneficiary of those Wrigley winds tonight.
Other tagged players: Miguel Montero, Jose Abreu, Aaron Judge, Scott Schebler, Marwin Gonzalez Plenty of low priced power potential offered on DraftKings tonight
Tonight is a particularly pitching deep slate with only three offenses implied for more than much more than four and a half runs. Vince Velasquez could be hit or miss, but does have issues with walks and HRs, which a strong wind blowing out at Wrigley tonight could exacerbate, driving the run line for the Cubbies all the way up to six tonight. Less dependent of weather, LH Houston bats appear incredibly strong against Andrew Cashner tonight (LHBs .375 wOBA, 37.5 Hard% since 2015) with Josh Reddick (133 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Brian McCann (108 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP since 2015) both costing $3.6K or less on DK and exactly $3K on FanDuel. DraftKings is also still significantly under-pricing Aaron Judge ($3.9K) against an extreme fly ball pitcher at home, even if Marco Estrada (RHBs .288 wOBA since 2015) is not a bad one. Julio Teheran has shown ownership of the Mets, but LHBs still have a .357 wOBA against him since 2015 and early rumor is that the new park plays favorable to RH power. Michael Conforto (131 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP career) and Jay Bruce (117 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are both barely above $3K on DraftKings tonight. Players are also going to want to attack Dylan Covey (-3.1 K-BB%) with Mike Moustakas (125 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP since 2015) still severely under-priced ($3.4K). Two of the three active bats with a wRC+ above 160 vs the handedness of the pitcher they are facing tonight are at First Base (Eric Thames 193, Joey Votto 166), though it would be difficult to call either Michael Wacha or Gerrit Cole plus matchups. The other is Corey Seager (162 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP career) facing Johnny Cueto (RHBs .280 wOBA since 2015).
Other tagged players: Brian McCann, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Aaron Judge, Eric Thames, Joey Votto, Corey Seager The Athletics currently own the lowest implied team total (3.3 runs) on the main slate
Dallas Keuchel seems to be regaining his former Cy Young form, going at least seven innings while allowing two earned runs or less in all five of his outings to start his 2017 campaign. His 65.6% groundball rate and 23.0% hard hit rate also mirror his 2015 numbers when he induced a 61.7% groundball rate and 21.3% hard hit rate respectively. Further adding to the appeal of Keuchel, is a fine matchup against an Oakland Athletics squad that has severely underachieved to this point in the season, evidenced by a .304 wOBA and a high 24.2% strikeout rate, which makes them a prime target to roster opposing starting pitchers such as Keuchel. His low 19.7% strikeout rate may not scream high upside potential, but Keuchel’s ability to induce soft contact and pitch deep into games significantly outweighs the potential downside of a low strikeout rate. Because of the soft contact, Keuchel rarely allows extra-base hits; and because of the ground balls, he regularly erases runners with double plays. He may not carry the same strikeout appeal of other high-end pitching options like Noah Syndergaard and Chris Archer, but he may go overlooked on a slate where he has a significant chance of finishing the day as the highest scoring starting pitcher option. Anytime this is a possibility, it’s a prime opportunity to target a starting pitcher in both tournaments and even cash games.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds
Nationals make late lineup change; Jayson Werth now batting 2nd, Michael Taylor batting 7th
The Washington Nationals have snuck in a late lineup change to their batting order for today’s game against the New York Mets, swapping Jayson Werth and Michael Taylor’s original spots in the initially confirmed lineup. Werth will now bat second while Taylor will slide down to the seventh spot. This lineup change does not have a significant impact on the daily fantasy projections of either Werth, Taylor, or even opposing starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard. The side to target in this matchup is still Syndergaard and Nationals hitters should be avoided or utilized sparingly as contrarian tournament options.
As reported by: Jorge Castillo Other tagged players: Michael A. Taylor Several games with rain delay potential in latest MLB weather forecast
It looks as if we have a much quieter weather day on tap for this afternoon than we did on Saturday, with the highest risk classifications checking in at YELLOW at several ballparks across the Majors. This means that rain delays are certainly possible in these locations, though a full-blown postponement is highly unlikely. These weather situations do make pitchers much riskier options, but hitters should still remain firmly in play for all formats. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Chris Davis (sore right elbow) scratched from the Orioles lineup today
Davis has officially been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles lineup for today’s game against the New York Yankees due to right elbow soreness stemming from a hit-by-pitch in Saturday’s contest. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Craig Gentry who will now bat eighth. This lineup change will bump Welington Castillo, Trey Mancini, and Jonathan Schoop all up a spot in the batting order to fifth, sixth, and seventh respectively.
As reported by: Luke Jones Indians bats look to capitalize against Chase De Jong in his first MLB start
Chase De Jong will be making his first ever start at the Major League level in this afternoon’s game against the Cleveland Indians after previously making two appearances in relief out of the Mariners bullpen earlier in the season. Since we have little to no data to properly analyze De Jong at the Major League level, it’s best to take a look at how he has recently fared in the minors. In 25 starts at Double-A last year, he induced a ground ball rate of just 35.3%, while recording a 22.2% strikeout rate, indicating that is pitching skills are likely nothing to write home about. De Jong has typically exhibited excellent control through his minor league career, though he has struggled with free passes thus far in 2017 in various appearances in the minors and out of the Seattle bullpen. Given De Jong’s inexperience and recent issues with control, there are no reasons to suggest that this deep and experienced Indians lineup won’t be able to take advantage early and often. This puts an Indians stack fully in play for tournaments while several Cleveland hitters stand out as potential cash game targets as well. The clear top options are Carlos Santana (140 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .268 ISO since 2016) and Edwin Encarnacion (119 wRC+, .338 wOBA, .232 ISO) given their overall skill set versus right-handed pitching and added power upside. Meanwhile, Jose Ramirez (131 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .170 ISO), Francisco Lindor (126 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .165 ISO), and Jason Kipnis (115 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .192 ISO) each have great track records versus righties the last two seasons but possess slightly less power than the aforementioned Santana and Encarnacion.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Chase De Jong Zach Eflin allows 2.17 HR/9 to LHB with just a 9.7% K%
Zach Eflin has somehow managed to luck his way through two solid starts to begin his 2017 campaign, allowing two earned runs or less and completing at least five innings of work in each outing. This is evidenced by an insanely low .147 BABIP and high 81.4% LOB% thus far. He’ll toe the rubber tonight against the righty-mashing Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that is currently tied for the highest implied team total on the main slate. Through the first 75 innings of his Major League career, he has recorded just a 9.4% strikeout rate to left-handed batters, while he is still relatively weak against righties in the strikeout department as well (14.6% K%). He also allows a decent amount of flyballs, and his hard contact rate to left-handed batters sits at 35.8% but a slightly better 30.7% to right-handed batters. This means that Corey Seager (160 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .225 ISO vs RHP since 2016), Yasmani Grandal (123 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and Adrian Gonzalez (127 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .176 ISO vs RHP since 2016) set up to be absolutely elite plays on the main slate, while young lefties like Andrew Toles and Cody Bellinger are both viable salary-saving options as a part of a stack or even one-offs in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Adrian Gonzalez, Andrew Toles, Cody Bellinger, Zach Eflin ICYMI: Tonight's MIN-KC game has been postponed
The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals front offices made our decisions much easier by postponing their game this evening in plenty of time before lock on the main slate. This leaves us with relatively little concern about the weather among the remaining night games across Major League Baseball, as the worst risk in the latest MLB weather forecast is classified as GREEN/YELLOW. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Very little rain concern for the night games in latest MLB weather forecast
The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals front offices made our decisions much easier by postponing their game this evening in plenty of time before lock on the main slate. This leaves us with relatively little concern about the weather among the remaining night games across Major League Baseball, as the worst risk in the latest MLB weather forecast is classified as GREEN/YELLOW. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Bad chalk? Yu Darvish likely to be among highest owned starting pitchers tonight
Yu Darvish is coming off a great start against the Kansas City Royals his last time out in which he allowed just two earned runs while striking out eight in eight innings of work. Tonight; he’ll take the mound against an equally inept Los Angeles Angels offense, who similarly lack a ton of power in their lineup. This is evidenced by the Angels currently ranking 28th in ISO versus right-handed pitching to this point in the young season. They are also striking out quite a bit more than they did in 2016 as a team (20.9% K%), up closer to the league average. Though that is still a relatively low team whiff rate, it’s nowhere near the insanely low rate in which they struck out last season. Despite the above average matchup for Darvish, there are still some areas of concern, as his strikeout rate is sitting at 24.4%, which is significantly lower than his career 30.1% mark. The dip in strikeouts doesn’t seem all that fluky considering his current 10.8% swinging strike rate is considerably lower than the 12.1% rate he induced last season. To make matters worse, his SIERA (3.93) and walk rate (10.2%) have each ballooned from his career 3.13 SIERA and 7.5% walk rate in 2016. With that said, there is still a non-zero chance that these numbers begin to normalize closer to his career totals and the fact remains that Darvish is the most talented pitcher going on Saturday’s main slate. Additionally, Darvish has looked much more like his old self in two of his last three outings, so this may be a situation we can capitalize on rostering the pitcher with the highest upside on the slate at a reduced ownership. However, if Darvish begins to gain too much popularity, there are more than enough reasons listed above to fade that ownership in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Projected Ownership Page Houston is currently tied for the highest implied team total (4.8) on the slate
Outside of a shaky start his last time out against a more than formidable Seattle Mariners squad, Andrew Triggs has been a model of consistency thus far in the 2017 campaign. He’s set to toe the rubber tonight against a Houston Astros lineup that is littered with power bats but will certainly swing and miss their fair share, increasing the boom-or-bust potential on each side of the matchup. Triggs has been fairly successful through his first ten career Major League starts, holding right-handed batters to a .290 wOBA and lefties to a .270 mark. Additionally, his strikeout rate is approximately league average to batters from both sides of the plate (20.7% K%), while his ground ball rate is a solid 51.9% and surrenders hard contact just 26.1% of the time. As you can see, this a fairly neutral matchup the Astros hitters, and given Triggs’ ability to neutralize hard contact, we will only want to target batters that excel at hitting the ball hard. This brings us to two players that may go overlooked by the masses given their slow starts to the season, Carlos Correa (44.1% HH%) and Yulieski Gurriel (37.5% HH%), who both should be in line for some positive regression if able to continue making solid contact. Brian McCann and Evan Gattis also check in with hard hit rates north of 36.0%, putting them firmly in play for all formats at a typically weak catcher position. As previously stated, this is not a premier matchup for the Astros by any means, but they should fly under the radar as a stack in tournaments and may even be able to provide some solid one-off power upside if deciding to take that route and not roster Triggs in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Yulieski Gurriel, Brian McCann, Evan Gattis