DFS Alerts
Houston bats projected to be most popular on FD, Washington potentially a contrarian stack
A pair of Mets LHBs are projected to be the most popular players on DraftKings. Both Jay Bruce ($3.2K) and Michael Conforto ($3.5K) are hot hitters against Bartolo Colon, who seems to either be boom or bust from a run prevention standpoint, but it’s really the absurd price tags that boosting these Mets bats. FanDuel projections call for a lot of Houston bats, but no single player for much more than 15%. Washington remains a very interesting contrarian stack. Although Robbie Ray has an elite strikeout rate (30.2%), he allows more hard contact than any pitcher in the league this year (48%), while the Nationals are destroying LHP (179 wRC+) this year and everyone (176 wRC+) over the last week. Trea Turner (7.5% on FanDuel) is the only batter projected to appear in more than 5% of lineups on either site. Jake Arrieta is projected to be the most popular pitcher on either site. The Phillies are resting several regulars and it is expected to be below 50 degrees at Wrigley tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Robbie Ray, Jake Arrieta, Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto
Conditions are much colder around the majors with fewer power friendly wind conditions
The last two days, players enjoyed a power boost in several parks due to strong winds blowing out, but that’s so much the case today as it’s just really cold around the country. Yankee Stadium is the only park expected to continue to see a strong outward wind (15-20 mph to right), as if LHBs needed any additional help. Marcus Stroman generated ground balls around 60% of the time on contact, but is not stingy about the fly balls he does allow leaving the yard (14+ HR//FB since 2015). Most of the power in this game will come from the right side though. Only Atlanta and the two non-dome west coast parks are projected to see temperatures above 65 degrees at first pitch with Chicago, Minnesota, and potentially Kansas City dropping into the 40s! Kansas City, Cincinnati and Washington may also see winds a bit above 10 mph blowing in from either center or left. Kevin will tells us more about possible rain effects later, but perhaps we shouldn’t be expecting balls to continue to carry as strongly as they’ve been this week.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Carlos Carrasco projected for top performance with less than 15% ownership
Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Jake Arrieta are all in a virtual tie atop the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. The difference might be in the intricacies and early ownership projections see Carrasco as potentially being the least popular arm (less than 15% on either site), while the Phillies just posted a lineup minus several regulars, including Tommy Joseph and Michael Saunders. Potential value arms are projected to be fairly close on either site, with Drew Pomeranz (29.4 K%) vs the Orioles (80 wRC+, 27.2 K% vs LHP) for the third time already this year and Nathan Karns (below $7K on either site) vs the White Sox (71 wRC+, 25.3 K%) as top contenders.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jake Arrieta, Jacob deGrom, Drew Pomeranz, Nate Karns Giancarlo Stanton is the top overall projected bat on either site vs Blake Snell
RotoGrinders Player Projections love Giancarlo Stanton (181 wRC+, .410 ISO vs LHP since 2015) against Blake Snell (RHBs .326 wOBA). He’s the only player projected to reach 10 points on DraftKings. Jose Altuve (131 wRC+, .163 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is second against Nick Martinez (RHBs .368 wOBA). While Jay Bruce (119 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top projected value on DraftKings against Bartolo Colon (LHBs .322 wOBA) for just $3.2K, the projections see the race a bit closer on FanDuel. However, two strongly projected overall players show up as top values in Carlos Gonzalez (127 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2015) vs Jered Weaver (LHBs .345 wOBA) and Eric Hosmer (123 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since 2015) vs Mike Pelfrey (LHBs .374 wOBA). Gonzalez transitions from Coors to Petco with a bat that looks slower this year, but costs less than $3K on FD and every park is Coors against Weaver. Hosmer’s bat has just recently come alive with a 171 wRC+ over the last week.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, Eric Hosmer Mike Trout has the highest BvP aEV (93.3 mph) among matchups with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBE
There are three players with three HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight. Mookie Betts has the most abundant recent information against Kevin Gausman. His three HRs are backed up by a mere 88.4 mph aEV on 17 BBE with no other extra-base hits. Aside from Gausman’s reverse split tendencies, there may not be any added incentive to roster Betts at such a high price. Avisail Garcia has three HRs in just 11 PA against Nathan Karns, but just a 77.1 mph aEV on four recorded BBE. Nelson Cruz likes facing Ricky Nolasco and while a few of their 19 matchups may be out-dated, Nolasco also has a bit of a reverse split and Cruz has a 93.9 mph aEV on six Statcast recorded batted balls. There may be something to this one, despite the six strikeouts. Among batters with at least 10 BBE against tonight’s starting pitcher, you’re not going to find a lot of success either. We have to go all the way down to Mike Trout at 93.3 mph (15 BBE) to find our highest aEV. Hisashi Iwakuma has also struck him out 15 times in 58 PA with just a single HR as his only extra-base hit, but this is a pitcher with a great decline in skills over the last year or so.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Hisashi Iwakuma, Mookie Betts, Kevin Gausman, Avisail Garcia, Nate Karns, Nelson Cruz, Ricky Nolasco Jake Arrieta has an ERA over four, but a 21.1 K-BB% in line with 2015
There are two pitchers with a strikeout rate exceeding 30% on tonight’s slate. Jacob deGrom (34.4 K%, 17.8 SwStr%) faces an offense that strikes out a bit below average (Atlanta 19.6 K% vs RHP, 15.4 K% last seven days), but still has enough to top the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor with a projection of 7.64 tonight. Robbie Ray (30.2 K%, 12.7 SwStr%) grabs the third spot (6.98), but allows a ton of hard contact (48% this year) and may not even be usable against the Nationals (179 wRC+ vs LHP, 176 wRC+ last seven days). Right in the middle sits Jake Arrieta (7.05). That might be more intriguing because he’s coming off a rough one in Boston and now has allowed three runs or more in four straight starts, working with reduced velocity. However, the velocity has increased about one mph in his last two starts (thought still below last year) and his 21.1 K-BB% is representative of his great 2015 season. It will be interesting to see where ownership projection numbers peg him later. Charlie Morton (6.11) should be the lower cost arm you’re looking at. He’s the highest projected strikeout arm below $8K on either site. He’s increased his strikeout rate to 24.6% this year with a significant bump in velocity.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Robbie Ray, Charlie Morton Miguel Sano has a 90% hard hit rate (398 wRC+) over the last week
Five players with at least 10 plate appearances have a wRC+ above 325 over the last week. Most notable may be Miguel Sano (398), who adds a 90% hard hit rate with three HRs. He has an interesting matchup against Kendall Graveman, a notable ground ball pitcher in the past (52.5% vs RHP since 2015), but as he’s added velocity, his ground ball rate has cratered to just 46.7% with a 44.4 Hard% vs RHBs this year. Sano does not have the highest wRC+ in the league over the last week either. That would be Marwin Gonzalez (405 wRC+). Although a switch hitter, Gonzalez usually doesn’t play against RHPs (92 wRC+, .147 ISO since 2015), but perhaps the four HRs he’s added over the last week will get him in there tonight. Aaron Judge (362 wRC+, 53.9 Hard%, six HRs) has picked up where Gary Sanchez left off last year. Marcus Stroman has a 60.7 GB% against RHBs since 2015, but does not discriminate with his HRs as RHBs have a 14.1 HR/FB when able to generate some lift against him. We follow with a pair of Nationals RHBs against the elite strikeout rate, but hard contact prone Robbie Ray (RHBs .336 wOBA, 38.2 Hard% since 2015). Ryan Zimmerman (337 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, four HRs) is crushing everything lately, but nearly as impressive (and much cheaper) has been Matt Wieters (329 wRC+, 58.3 Hard%, three HRs).
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Marwin Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Wieters Brewers @ Cardinals Postponed
The Milwaukee @ St Louis games has been postponed due to rain tonight. Be sure to avoid all players from this game.
As reported by: St Louis Cardinals Nats implied for just 4.2 runs, but face hard contact prone LHP (48%) with a team 179 wRC+ vs southpaws
Even when he was going poorly, Ryan Zimmerman has always had an aptitude for smoking LHP (147 wRC+, .323 ISO since 2015). Where it gets really interesting today is that his opponent, Robbie Ray, is one of the top strikeout pitchers in the league (30.2 K%, 12.7 SwStr%), but also has the highest hard hit rate in baseball (48%) with only Phil Hughes within five points of him. Aside from the hard contact, his fly ball rate drops to 41.8% vs RHBs since 2015 (.336 wOBA). Zimmerman has a 45.9 Hard% vs LHP over that span and over the last week, he has a 337 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard%. It will be interesting to see his ownership rates tonight, but he certainly has some massive upside tonight. Eric Thames (181 wRC+, .366 ISO vs RHP) is also interesting. Adam Wainwright has allowed LHBs a .362 wOBA since 2015. Thames has cooled down, but his 51 wRC+ over the last week still comes with a 43.8 Hard%. Other top overall bat considerations while trying to stay away from the top implied run lines (Houston & Boston both at 4.9 runs via our Vegas Odds page) include two guys without superior matchups against predominantly ground ball pitchers, but Aaron Judge (140 wRC+, .326 ISO vs RHP) and Miguel Sano (134 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP) both hit same handed pitching well and have been absolutely smashing baseballs over the last week (both 360+ wRC+). While Judge has a 53.9% hard contact rate and can practically sneeze fly balls out of Yankee Stadium, Sano has an over-whelming 90% hard contact rate over the last week. One last potential top bat with a great matchup is Corey Seager (161 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP career). Jeff Samardzija should be much better than his ERA, but LHBs do have a .355 wOBA against him since 2015. Also consider targeting Jayson Werth (153 wRC+, .300 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for some savings against Ray, especially if he remains in the two hole. In fact, with a 179 wRC+ and 23.7 HR/FB vs LHP this year and 176 wRC+, 26.2 HR/FB over the last seven days overall, a full Washington RH stack is not a bad idea, despite an implied run line of just 4.24 runs.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Aaron Judge, Miguel Sano, Corey Seager, Jayson Werth Cole Hamels scratched from his start tonight; Alex Claudio will start instead
Hamels has officially been scratched from his start in tonight’s game against the Houston Astros due to tightness in his left oblique muscle. Alex Claudio is a left-handed pitcher that will be making his Major League debut, so luckily any hitters that were in play versus Hamels remain great options against Claudio. The Houston right-handed bats may even see a small bump in value given the inexperience of Claudio.
As reported by: Evan Grant
Plenty of cheap bats available with middle or better lineup spots for those who need to save salary
Players paying up for Chris Sale or even a number of other high cost arms tonight will be looking for savings in other spots. Luckily, there are a number of places where players can do so tonight. Looking for above average bats, regardless of lineup situation, Geovany Soto (125 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP) can be a lower lineup Catching punt for near the minimum on either site against Danny Duffy, who has HR issues against RHBs (over 40 allowed since 2015). Michael Conforto (134 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP career) leads off against the knuckleball and still inexplicably costs just $3.3K on DraftKings (Jay Bruce 117 wRC+, .264 ISO costs just $100 more). Marwin Gonzalez (115 wRC+, .197 ISO vs LHP since 2015) faces a pitcher with declining peripherals (Cole Hamels) and costs less than $3K on either site. Alex Avila (117 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP since 2015) faces Corey Kluber with the wind blowing out in Cleveland for just $2.6K on DraftKings. Jose Osuna doesn’t have much of a resume yet, but is now a middle of the lineup batter for just over the minimum on FanDuel, facing the reverse split Scott Feldman with the wind blowing out in Cincinnati. Matt Joyce (120 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since last season) bats second for The A’s against Ervin Santana for $2.5K or less. Cheaper, potentially below average bats with great lineup spots include Joey Rickard (below average against Chris Sale at least) at the minimum on FD ($2.8K on DK), Ben Gamel ($2.8K or less) against Matt Shoemaker, and Carlos (Yolmer?) Sanchez, who bats second against Danny Duffy for exactly $2.3K on either site. Gorkys Hernandez ($2.5K on either site) was also just confirmed to lead off against Alex Wood.
Other tagged players: Geovany Soto, Jay Bruce, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Avila, Jose Osuna, Matt Joyce, Joey Rickard, Ben Gamel, Yolmer Sanchez, Gorkys Hernandez Wind downgraded in Boston with no significant weather concerns in Kevin's late forecast
Kevin has updated his weather forecast for this evening with the biggest change being a reduction in the expected winds in Boston. Perhaps the Boston LHBs get a slight bump down, but it shouldn’t change their projections against Alec Asher too much and shouldn’t change Chris Sale’s projections at all. You have to actually make contact before you can worry about wind impact. Kevin also updates on potential wind aided power boosts in several other parks with the most likely rain impact being late game in Kansas City (vs Chicago AL), if any are at all. Read Kevin’s full forecast on our Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Wind downgraded in Boston with no significant weather concerns in Kevin's late forecast
Kevin has updated his weather forecast for this evening with the biggest change being a reduction in the expected winds in Boston. Perhaps the Boston LHBs get a slight bump down, but it shouldn’t change their projections against Alec Asher too much and shouldn’t change Chris Sale’s projections at all. You have to actually make contact before you can worry about wind impact. Kevin also updates on potential wind aided power boosts in several other parks with the most likely rain impact being late game in Kansas City (vs Chicago AL), if any are at all. Read Kevin’s full forecast on our Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page James Paxton (31.5 K%, 14.7 SwStr%) may not be getting the attention he merits tonight
In line with the RotoGrinders K Predictor, Chris Sale and Carlos Martinez may be tonight’s most popular pitchers, while Trevor Cahill is definitely under-priced and savvy players are expected to notice that as the Projected Ownership page is calling for him to be fairly popular as well. If players are looking for a potentially contrarian arm in the same price range as Martinez, James Paxton is facing an Angels’ lineup that boats just a 16.7 K% vs LHP, but with an elite 31.5 K% and 14.7 SwStr%, he has some room to spare, while still generating value at a cost just above $9K on either site. He’s projected to show up in just 3% of lineups on FanDuel. Yankees and Red Sox cover the top of the board when it comes to potentially popular bats tonight as the offenses with the two highest implied run lines, by over half a run from the next best team according to our Vegas Odds page. A potential contrarian bat might be Miguel Sano (7.5% ownership projection on both sites). He has the highest wRC+ in baseball over the last week (443) and a ridiculous 99.3 mph aEV on the year. That’s 3.5 mph harder than the next hardest hitter. Cincinnati outfielders Duvall and Schebler also make interesting alternatives, expected to appear in fewer than 8% of lineups on either site in a matchup against the walk prone Tyler Glasnow (15.5 BB%) with strong winds forecasted to be blowing out in this game. Premium subscribers can see potential ownership for all players on our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Carlos Martinez, Chris Sale, Trevor Cahill, Miguel Sano, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler Cole Hamels has posted a 0.0% K-BB% versus RHB through five starts
Cole Hamels is off to a strangely average start to his 2017 campaign, making him an attackable starting pitcher on a slate that is slightly lacking appealing places to look for offense. Taking a peek at Hamels’ game logs, you’ll notice that he has recorded a quality start in four of his five outings but has seen his strikeout totals dip drastically from where they’ve been in previous years. In fact, Hamels has just a 10.9% strikeout rate against righties with a 38.1% hard hit rate and very weak ground ball abilities (42.2% GB%) to this point in the season. This obviously isn’t a huge sample size of data, but the trend still puts us in a position of having to consider some of the Astros right-handed bats in this spot. Houston will roll out three hitters in George Springer (156 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .292 ISO since 2016), Evan Gattis (143 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .269 ISO since 2016), and Jose Altuve (140 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .198 ISO since 2016) that possesses elite skill sets versus left-handed pitching, making them perfect one-off options in tournaments and cash games. On top of that, so far this season, Gattis has continued owning southpaws with a .455 ISO in a limited sample size, while Springer checks in with a .333 ISO and three home runs in 27 AB. Additionally, Carlos Beltran is off to a slow start this season but has traditionally mashed lefties, evidenced by a 158 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .252 ISO in 2016.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Evan Gattis, Jose Altuve, Carlos Beltran