DFS Alerts
Brett Gardner out of Thursday's lineup; Greg Bird returns to the lineup batting 6th
Gardner will miss at least one game after colliding with Rickie Weeks’ at first base during Wednesday’s game. Both Weeks and Gardner were removed from the game after the collision and it wouldn’t be surprising to see either player miss another day or two. Aaron Hicks will slide into the lineup and bat 2nd with Jacoby Ellsbury leading off. Greg Bird is returning to the Yankees lineup after missing time with an illness, but he’ll be hitting sixth instead of in the three-hole where he opened the season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Lineups Page
Lonnie Chisenhall actived Thursday, back in the lineup hitting 6th; Tyler Naquin sent down
Chisenhall will make his 2017 debut this evening, with Tyler Naquin being sent down in a corresponding move. The CLE/CHW tilt falls outside of both the early and main slate on some sites, but if you’re able to select hitters from this contest, you’ll want to focus in on the Cleveland bats. While Miguel Gonzalez doesn’t give up much in the way of long balls (0.74 HR/9 on the road last year, 0.73 at home), he also doesn’t typically do a great job at limiting runs from crossing the plate. His 4.96 xFIP vs LH bats last season (with a 8.5% K-BB ratio) makes guys like Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez and Lonnie Chisenhall viable options.
As reported by: Bernie Pleskoff Yu Darvish top pitching option of afternoon games as Texas visits the Angels
Yu Darvish has struggled thus far this season and faces a team in the Angels that does not strike out often. That being said the lack of quality pitching options in the early slate and Darvish’s talent makes him the clear top option of the four early games. His counterpart, Ricky Nolasco, on the other hand is an easy player to fade. Nomar Mazara and Rougned Odor are the top options from the Texas lineup with Carlos Gomez and Mike Napoli good additions to a Rangers stack. From the Angels only Mike Trout (as usual) and Kole Calhoun are worth rostering.
As reported by: Bill Shaikin on Twitter Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Mike Trout
Cubs right-handed bats ones to target as they host the Dodgers today
Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Dodgers visit the Cubs and Brett Anderson today in a game that has a modest Vegas run total of eight runs with the Cubs slight favorites. Ryu is a fade considering he is facing a tough Cubs lineup on the road while Anderson is a viable SP2 option on sites that start two pitchers. Anderson is a reverse-splits pitcher which puts Corey Seager firmly in play from the Dodgers lineup with Logan Forsythe (leading off), Justin Turner (3rd), Yasiel Puig (4th), and Scott Van Slyke (5th) all secondary options. The right-handed bats of the Cubs are top options today so look to Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Wilson Contreras to start your Cubs stacks. The LH bats of Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo are worthy components of a stack if you’re looking to do that.
As reported by: Eric Stephen on Twitter Other tagged players: Addison Russell, Brett Anderson, Corey Seager Miguel Cabrera top option as Tigers host Twins today
While Cabrera has been struggling he gets a juicy match up against homer prone Phil Hughes and the Twins today and has feasted off of Hughes in the past to the tune of six career homers in 44 at bats. He’s one of the top hitting options of the day. Hughes and his counterpart Jordan Zimmermann are both low strikeout pitchers with little upside and can be easily faded, even on a small afternoon slate. Brian Dozier is the top option for the Twins with Max Kepler and Miguel Sano also viable options. In addition to Cabrera, Nick Castellanos is a great option and Victor Martinez and Justin Upton can help round out a stack. The hot-hitting Andrew Romine is an intriguing option leading off for the resting Ian Kinsler.
As reported by: Detroit Tigers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Nick Castellanos Runs expected to be scored today when Boston hosts the Pirates
The Red Sox and Eduardo Rodriguez host the Pirates and Chad Kuhl today in a game that Vegas expects some runs to be scored (9 1/2 run total) with Boston easily winning. Kuhl doesn’t have a lot of strikeout upside and gives up a lot of hard contact to left-handed hitters and is an easy fade even on a small afternoon slate. Rodriguez, on the other hand, has some strikeout upside and a low hard contact rate and is a viable SP option, especially on sites that give bonuses for the win. The Pirates do have some hitters that hit LH pitching well so they aren’t a team we want to ignore completely. Jordy Mercer (leading off), Andrew McCutchen (3rd), and David Freese (5th) all have good numbers against southpaws and are worth considering for your DFS lineups or as part of a Pirates contrarian stack. Kuhl struggles against LH bats making Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland solid plays from the Red Sox lineup with Marco Hernandez an intriguing value option. We can of course target the RH bats of Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, and Xander Bogaerts to complete a stack.
As reported by: Pittsburgh Pirates official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Eduardo Rodriguez, Andrew McCutchen, Jordy Mercer Omar Narvaez, not Geovany Soto, to catch for White Sox on Wednesday
Soto was scratched with soreness in his elbow, which will give Narvaez the nod at the catcher spot. Narvaez will also slot into the 8-hole in the order.
As reported by: @WhiteSox Mild rain and wind concerns in San Francisco this evening for ARI@SF
Outside of rain and wind concerns in San Francisco for the Diamondbacks-Giants game, which is currently graded as a YELLOW weather risk, we have a great night for baseball around the rest of the Major Leagues with every other game receiving the Roth Seal of Approval. The situation in San Francisco is typically one where we want to avoid pitchers, especially with Shelby Miller and Matt Cain on the bump, but hitters should be relatively safe with a PPD unlikely to occur. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Value Hunting: Jordy Mercer, J.T. Realmuto, Devon Travis lead the way
We don’t have any ‘aces’ on the hill tonight to pay up for, but that doesn’t mean we won’t need a few value plays to afford some of the higher end hitters in plus spots. Shortstop is pretty barren towards the top – Corey Seager faces off with John Lackey, one of the tougher arms on the slate, and Carlos Correa will do battle on the road in Seattle, so this is a spot we can feel comfortable punting. Jordy Mercer is priced at just $2,100 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings out of the leadoff spot against a rookie LHP, and given his splits against LHs (.357 wOBA, .177 ISO), that salary is a bargain. J.T. Realmuto has come out of the gate on fire, recording hits in all six of his starts including four multi-hit games, and he’s had fairly strong power numbers against LHP for a catcher (.176 career ISO). The fact that he can run and slots into the two spot in the Marlins order ahead of three very viable bats only helps to further his upside. Last but not least is Devon Travis, who has started slowly this season but has one of the best draws at the 2B spot against reverse-split pitcher Chase Anderson. Travis remains the leadoff man in Toronto and sits at just $2,400 on FanDuel (his $4K price tag on DK isn’t as appealing), making him an option in any format. David Freese is another strong punt play out of the clean-up spot for the Pirates, and Marcell Ozuna looks particularly appealing at $3,700 on DraftKings. We also can’t forget about the D’Backs value against Matt Cain (Pollock, Peralta and Lamb are all priced at $3.8K or below on DraftKings).
Other tagged players: J.T. Realmuto, David Freese, Devon Travis, Marcell Ozuna, David Peralta Red Sox bats, especially RHB, may not be in as great of a spot as Vegas odds imply
Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off of a lackluster performance in his first start of the season against the New York Yankees in which he allowed two home runs equating to five earned runs in just 4.1 innings pitched. He’ll toe the rubber tonight in a matchup against an intimidating Red Sox offense at Fenway Park. This is seemingly a difficult assignment for Jimenez given his 11.3% walk rate from last season and the ability of the Red Sox hitters to work the count and drive up a pitcher’s pitch count. However, even with Boston’s lofty 5.1 runs implied team total, this situation just screams stack or fade in tournaments considering Jimenez’s propensity to randomly put together solid outings and limit home runs relatively well. This is evidenced by his 51.9% groundball rate and minuscule 7.8% HR/FB rate to right-handed batters in 2016. However, the left-handed bats, Andrew Benintendi (152 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .222 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) and Mitch Moreland (148 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .202 ISO vs RHP), are a must in any Red Sox stack since they carry the most upside, outside of Mookie Betts (140 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .204 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) of course, and have the platoon advantage to capitalize on Jimenez’s 1.54 HR/9 and .378 wOBA allowed to lefties last season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mitch Moreland, Mookie Betts, Ubaldo Jimenez Arizona bats set up as nice contrarian targets on the road in SF
We haven’t seen Matt Cain finish a season with an ERA under 4.00 since 2012, and those days aren’t returning to the right-hander at this point in his career. Cain has been brutally bad over the past two seasons despite pitching in one of the more pitcher-friendly environments in the league, and wasn’t able to climb above 88-89 MPH in his first start of the season, so seeing him get a quick hook from the SF rotation after a handful of bad starts wouldn’t be surprising. Even in his spacious home park in 2016, Cain still allowed a .368 wOBA and 10 HRs in 58.2 IP (to R and L handed bats combined). While we’d love to get the D’Backs bats in Chase Field, the fact that they’re on the road tonight should keep their ownership percentages way down in tournaments, and it also helps that several sites have priced them down a bit (DraftKings specifically, where David Peralta is arguably the top value play on the main slate). In 148 PAs against Cain, the D’Backs as a team have racked up a .397 wOBA, and some of that data dates back to when Cain was actually a viable major league starter. Cain doesn’t excel against hitters from either side of the plate, so the entire D’Backs lineup is in play here. but we’re going to want to stick to bats in the top five or six of the order. Pollock, Peralta, Goldschmidt, Lamb and Tomas are all in play here assuming they’re in the lineup. Keep up with the RotoGrinders Starting Lineups page and Alerts App to be notified when the lineup becomes official.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Lineups Page Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas The Brewers currently own the lowest implied run total (3.3) on tonight's slate
Stroman is coming off a strong first start in his season debut in which he held the Tampa Bay Rays to just one earned run in 6.1 innings pitched and struck out five. He’ll face off tonight against a free-swinging Milwaukee Brewers lineup that is very boom or bust but struggles much more frequently versus right-handed pitching than southpaws. Stroman is an elite control and groundball pitcher (60.1% GB% in 2016) that should help him keep this Brewers squad in check at the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre this evening. Stroman didn’t post an elite strikeout rate last season (19.4% K%) but it should certainly be expected for him to run into at least a few extra strikeouts facing this Milwaukee lineup. Stroman is also the largest favorite on Wednesday night, which when combined with the aforementioned statistics, makes him the best starting pitching option by a significant margin on tonight’s slate and should be a staple in cash game formats across the industry. Given Stroman’s groundball nature, it’s best to avoid too many Brewers one-offs, though they can still certainly be considered as a contrarian stack in tournaments, well, because baseball and anything can happen on any given night. However, a Brewers stack is far from an optimal way to attack tournaments and should only be considered as a leverage play if rolling out multiple lineups in a large-field tournament.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Toronto RH bats in a great spot against reverse-split SP Chase Anderson
The Toronto RH bats are among the most appealing targets on tonight’s slate against Chase Anderson, who struggles mightily against RH bats but doesn’t fare particularly well against bats from either side of the plate. Part of the reason Anderson struggles against RH bats is because he has more of a lefty approach as a pitcher, utilizing his change-up often (about 25% of the time last season) while rarely topping out above 91-92 MPH with his fastball. Last season, he allowed a .394 wOBA to RH bats (.289 vs. LHs) with a whopping 17 HRs allowed (1.87 HR/9), so it’s going to be hard not to look to a lineup loaded with RH bats this evening (Toronto doesn’t have a true LH bat in the lineup, just one switch hitter). Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly environment, Anderson actually fared worse on the road from a HR perspective, allowing a 2.11 HR/9 rate to RH bats. All of the Toronto bats in the top seven of the order are squarely in play, and paying a premium for guys like Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson is certainly warranted, as the field may not be privy to Anderson’s reverse splits. Donaldson finished 2016 with a .405 wOBA, .272 ISO and 41.0 hard% against RHP, including blasting 30 of his 37 HRs off RHs. Jose Bautista has gotten off to a rough start against RHs this season – he’s just 2-22 so far – but he had better numbers against RHP in 2016, finishing with a .361 wOBA and .220 ISO. Devon Travis is still far too cheap on FanDuel ($2.4K), setting him up as an across the board play there, and the same goes for Troy Tulowitzki who is sitting at just $2,800. Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin and Steve Pearce are also options on the Toronto side.
Other tagged players: Jose Bautista, Devon Travis, Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin, Steve Pearce, Troy Tulowitzki Vince Velasquez: The key arm to unlocking Wednesday night's slate?
Vince Velasquez is coming off of a start against the Washington Nationals that fully embodies who he currently is as a starting pitcher at the Major League level, surrendering four earned runs on two long balls while striking out 10 batters in just four innings of work. However, it is tough to put too much stock into one start and dwell too much on the good or the bad, so let’s break down his numbers from last season. The good news for Velasquez is that he didn’t really have any pronounced splits against right and left-handed batters, which will work a bit in his favor facing off against a New York Mets squad that are going to be rolling out six lefties this evening. Additionally, the only Mets that have posted strikeout rates below 19.8% against right-handed pitching the last two seasons were Jay Bruce and Asdrubal Cabrera. So, it goes without saying that Velasquez possesses astronomical upside in tonight’s matchup given his 27.6% strikeout rate and 11.2% swinging strike rate from 2016, but it all comes down to whether he is able to limit the walks (8.2% BB%) and keep the ball in the yard (1.44 HR/9) versus this powerful Mets offense. There’s still no doubt that Velasquez is the one pitcher on this slate that legitimately has tournament-winning upside, and you’ll want to have shares of him if running out multiple lineups, but don’t shy away from Mets power bats like Bruce (.259 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Cabrera (.202 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Yoenis Cespedes (.245 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), and Michael Conforto (.233 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) as one-offs or even pairings in non-Velasquez tournament lineups.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto Pirates set up as one of the best main slate value stacks vs. Amir Garrett
The Pirates have one of the higher team totals of the main slate at home against Amir Garrett, and the right-handed heaviness of the Pittsburgh lineup should bode well. Adam Frazier is the only true left-handed bat in the lineup (batting 8th), and a Pirates stack can work with any pitching option on the board given that several options in the heart of the order don’t carry high price tags. Amir Garrett looked great in his debut against the Cardinals, shutting them out over six innings, and while he does profile as a plus prospect (2nd in the Reds organization), this draw should be significantly better than the Pirates first meeting with a southpaw (Chris Sale) this season. The value on the Pittsburgh side may be the best place to look, especially considering the Pirates most dangerous RH bat – Starling Marte – owned a .320 wOBA and .101 ISO against LHP in 2016 despite a .407 BABIP (his K% was also nearly twice as high against LHP). Jordy Mercer is priced towards the minimum on most DFS outlets out of the leadoff spot, and given his strong 2016 against southpaws (.357 wOBA, .177 ISO), he’s a fine punt play in any format at a typically thin SS spot. David Freese and Francisco Cervelli slot into the 4-5 spots in the order, and both of them have had much more success against LHP over the last year. Andrew McCutchen is clearly an option here as well, although he’s coming off of a dreadful year against LHP (.315 wOBA, 97 wRC+).
Other tagged players: David Freese, Francisco Cervelli, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen