DFS Alerts
Cleveland and San Francisco are the top projected lineups our Vegas Odds page
Both Cleveland and San Francisco are projected to score just five runs to top the list tonight and both are around a -150 favorite. Johnny Cueto projects as a top pitcher tonight and he should have the run support behind him to favor his chances of picking up a Win, which would add a few points to his score. Carlos Carrasco is a bit riskier, as he’s been dealing with an elbow injury this spring and may have an innings limit imposed upon him. Players should be considering RH stacks against the LHPs in each of those games. On the other end, the Padres are the only lineup projected to score fewer than three runs, but Kenta Maeda, too, is often a pitcher who doesn’t last very long into games.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Carlos Carrasco, Kenta Maeda
Favorable weather and park conditions in Texas tonight, not so much in St Louis
Kevin’s official weather update will be a little later, but looking at the Rotogrinder’s Weather page and also the Park Factors page can give players an idea of some potentially favorable hitting or pitching conditions tonight. With expected temperatures around 80 degrees at first pitch, Texas is normally one of the better hitter’s parks in the league and that shouldn’t change tonight. At home vs RHBs, Martin Perez allowed a .350 wOBA with 10 HRs last year. Perhaps a RH Cleveland stack is in order. Alternately, St Louis is generally a park that suppressed power, especially in the cooler months. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s with a light wind blowing in from center, conditions which should slightly favor pitchers in that game.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Ben Zobrist OUT tonight against Adam Wainwright, Russell bats cleanup
Addison Russell (96 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is hitting cleanup for the Cubs tonight against Adam Wainwright in St Louis as Ben Zobrist is out of the lineup. While the top of the Chicago lineup (Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo) is rarely a poor choice, the matchup with an aging one time Ace is fairly marginal from a DFS perspective on either end. Wainwright sufficiently handled RHBs (.305 wOBA) last year, but was pounded by lefties (.354 wOBA). Our Weather Page calls for temperatures in the low 60’s with wind blowing in from center at around 9 mph, combining for favorable pitching conditions in an early season pitcher’s park. The Cubs are projected to score just 4.0 runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Adam Wainwright, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo Cueto and Altuve are top players on the Rotogrinders Projections page tonight
The Rotogrinders Player Projections love Jose Altuve (9.37) and Ryan Braun (9.26) as the only two batters projected above nine points on DraftKings tonight. Tyler Anderson is a fine and potentially still under-rated pitcher, but Braun just smokes LHP with a 159 wRC+ each of the last two years. Those looking for value might note that Matt Joyce tops the list with a projected 2.6 points per $1K. He’s the only man above 2.5. The FanDuel side has lefty masher Brandon Guyer (157 wRC+, .199 ISO vs LHP since 2015) as top point per dollar guy at 4.15 (the only player over four). Johnny Cueto tops our overall Pitcher projections on each site, while Tyler Anderson & Patrick Corbin are one and two for value on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Ryan Braun, Matt Joyce, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin Longoria (7 HRs) and Pence (4 HRs) lead in BvP dominance tonight
It’s a controversial subject. Some players love it, some hate, and some see some merit to it without getting too attached, but when a player shows the type of dominance Evan Longoria has against CC Sabathia in his career, you have to take notice. In 86 PA, he has seven HRs off the lefty with 16 total extra-base hits and more walks (8) than strikeouts (7). In 11 batted balls recorded by Statcast, he has a solid, but not spectacular 90.8 mph aEV. Hunter Pence is the other player with more than two HRs against their opponent tonight. He has taken Patrick Corbin deep four times in his career with eight extra-base hits total in 28 PA with just two strikeouts. He has just four batted balls recorded by Statcast, but with an absurd 104 mph aEV.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Hunter Pence, CC Sabathia, Patrick Corbin Gary Sanchez leads all batters with a 187 wRC+ (since 2015) vs pitcher handedness tonight.
Albeit with a smaller sample size, Gary Sanchez leads all batters in wRC+ (187) vs the pitcher handedness he is facing tonight over the past two seasons among those projecting to be in the lineup. Although he did wear a collar on Opening Day, he is facing a pitcher is facing a fly ball pitching with a significant reverse platoon in Jake Odorizzi tonight (.335 wOBA with 32 HRs allowed to RHBs last two seasons). While neither he, nor the second man on that list (Mike Trout – 178 wRC+ vs LHP) are price friendly tonight, the fifth name on that list, Brandon Guyer (157 wRC+) costs just $3.1K on DK/$2.2K on FD. He’s also only one of two names in the top five with BABIP below .350 over that span, which makes us believe in the sustainability of his prowess a bit more. Kyle Scwarber (157 wRC+ vs RHP) is the other. Right in the middle, at #3 on the list tonight is Ryan Braun’s 159 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015. Sanchez is also the top man on our top wOBA Matchups (linked below) with the only mark above .400 among projected starters.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Top wOBA Matchups Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Guyer Ryon Healy had an impressive 131 wRC+ and .213 ISO vs RHP last season
And in the unlikeliest Opening Day matchup, Ricky Nolasco faces Kendall Graveman in Oakland. You can be sure this is where most the offensive ownership will come from on this slate even in such a pitcher friendly park. Nolasco had spent a career frustrating those who put significant stock in ERA estimators, but last year was his first season with both a FIP and xFIP above four. He has shown a significant reverse platoon split over the last two years, but this is not the case for his career. On a three game slate, that would seem to open up the entire Oakland offense to players. Ryon Healy returns the best bat in this lineup vs RHP last year (131 wRC+, .213 ISO) in the three slot and he is flanked by the capable bats of Matt Joyce, who bounced back with a 141 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP in 2016 and Khris Davis (119 wRC+, .276 ISO). Kendall Graveman misses few bats (13.6 K% in 2016) but did have a 52.1 GB%. He did surrender 22 HRs last season, with little platoon split, though LHBs (49.5 GB%) elevated against him slightly more often than RHBs (55 GB%). Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP) is always the obvious name, but C.J. Cron was fairly potent against same handed pitching as well (126 wRC+, .201 ISO). Kole Calhoun (113 wRC+, .164 ISO) was the top bat from the LH side.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Lineups Page Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Khris Davis, Ricky Nolasco, Kendall Graveman, Mike Trout, C.J. Cron, Kole Calhoun Nelson Cruz has three HRs (27 PA) with a 96 mph aEV (9 BBE) against Keuchel
After two disappointing seasons, Felix Hernandez came into camp in the best shape of his life and is now expected to reclaim his throne as the best pitcher in the American League. Or maybe it doesn’t work that way. He dropped to an 8.4 K-BB% last year and though he kept the ball on the ground 50% of the time, that was still four points below his career average as well. Maybe he does bounce back a bit and he should manage contact well, which makes this the least attractive matchup from either side on the short night slate. Dallas Keuchel took a step back too last year, but a 21.5 K% and 57.4 GB% from June until he was shut down in August is nothing to sneeze at. Now, apparently over the shoulder pain he admitted bothered him last year, perhaps we can see something better this year. He allowed 18 HRs to RHBs last year, but still held LHBs to a .263 wOBA with two HRs and the Mariners have balanced the lineup with four lefties tonight. Keuchel is an interesting and more affordable pivot from Kluber or Darvish. Nelson Cruz does have three HRs in 27 career PA against him with a 96 mph aEV on 9 recorded BBEs (Batted Ball Events).
As reported by: MLB.com Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Felix Hernandez Tigers and White Sox to be delayed
The Tigers and White Sox will be delayed according to beat writer Colleen Kane. Kevin’s latest report believes there’s a window to get this game in after this delay before more weather potentially moves in late.
As reported by: Colleen Kane Yu Darvish was fourth with a 24.3 K-BB% last year (100 IP min.)
Corey Kluber’s 19.8 K-BB% in 2016 was his lowest in three seasons. He’s the highest priced pitcher tonight and the only one above $10K on either site. The Texas offense had just a 98 wRC+ vs RHP last season, but a .176 ISO. Rougned Odor (109 wRC+, .245 ISO) was the top LHB vs RHP for the Rangers last season. A couple of RHBs were a bit better, but Kluber has held righties to just a .266 wOBA throughout his career. The other issue concerning Texas batter is a deep Cleveland bullpen that could unleash Andrew Miller at any time. Kluber would appear the most reasonable play on this side, though his opponent might have more upside at a slightly lower cost. Yu Darvish was fourth among pitchers with at least 100 innings with a 24.3 K-BB% last season. Cleveland may have upgraded with Encarnacion over Napoli this year and now have Michael Brantley back in the lineup, but the loss of Jason Kipnis is a big blow to this offense. Darvish my be the top pitching play on the short night slate.
Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Rougned Odor, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley DET/CHW upgraded to yellow/orange, decreased PPD threat
Kevin Roth has upgraded the DET/CHW game to yellow/orange, indicating a lower chance for a potential PPD. Things should be fairly clear in Chicago throughout most of the game, with light rain moving in late. There is definitely still a possibility of a delay at some point, but the chances of this one being completely washed out are now pretty low. There is still some risk in rostering either pitcher involved in this tilt.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Other tagged players: Jose Quintana
Detroit at Chicago lineups in; game has weather concerns
Two excellent pitchers are slated to take the mound today in Chicago with Justin Verlander coming off a stellar 2016 facing off against Jose Quintana, the now defacto White Sox ace after Chris Sale headed to Boston. Unfortunately it looks as if this game will have weather concerns and potential delay/postponement so both pitchers are easy fades and hitters should only be utilized in sites that have late swap options. Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera are the two Tigers bats worth a look while Jose Abreu is the only White Sox bat that merits consideration.
As reported by: Colleen Kane on Twitter
Reds/Phillies have gone from yellow to yellow/orange
Prior to lock on the main slate, Kevin Roth downgraded the risk in the Phillies-Reds game to YELLOW/ORANGE from just YELLOW. This means that Kevin currently feels that a rain delay is likely and isn’t ruling out a possible postponement. In any game where a rain delay is likely, it is best to avoid starting pitchers, as they are highly unlikely to return to the game following a delay. There is some risk in rostering hitters from Philadelphia and Cincinnati, but they remain fully in play for tournaments given their likely reduced ownership. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he is always posting updates and answering questions, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Clayton Kershaw and Andrew Toles highlight top options on today's slate for Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw is the obvious top option at SP today as he faces an anemic Padres lineup lacking power. That said, there is a small amount of merit in fading Kershaw given his price tag and the unlikelihood that he’ll go more than six or seven innings but you’re taking a big risk fading one of the best pitchers of this, or any, generation. Andrew Toles is leading off for the Dodgers and is priced much too cheap. He’ll be a highly-owned option given his price and lineup spot. The left handed bats of Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, and Joc Pederson should all have plenty of opportunities to feast against Jhoulys Chacin who allowed a 35% hard contact rate and only struck out 13.6% of the left-handed batters that he faced in 2016.
As reported by: Los Angeles Dodgers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal Danny Duffy broke out in 2016, but faded down the stretch.
Danny Duffy broke out last year, finishing with a 25.7 K% (12.9 SwStr%), 20.0 K-BB% and an ERA with estimators right around three and a half. However, the power pitching faded a bit down the stretch. He struck out more than six batters in just three of his last 11 starts with just a league average 20.7 K% over that span. He also allowed a lot of hard contact (40.2 Hard% last 11 starts with 14 HRs). On the season, he had a 90.2 mph aEV and a slate worst 8.5% Barrels/BBE, 5.1% Barrels/PA. All 14 of those HRs were surrendered to RHBs. The Twins should be a below average offense once again. They do have a couple of RH hammers, but they also struck out 24.3% of the time against southpaws and it’s generally pretty damn COLD in Minnesota in early April, though today’s forecast calls for something in the low 50’s. It should still be a spot with some nice upside for him, especially if you consider that he threw a career high 179.2 innings (by 30 innings) last season and may have just been tiring down the stretch. At less than $9K, Duffy is more reasonably priced today and could make for a nice GPP play. There may be some merit in looking at the opposing bats here too, if not considering Duffy. Sano, Buxton (hitting 3rd today!), Polanco, and Grossman all had an ISO above .200 against LHP last year. Brian Dozier had a .331 ISO vs southpaws. On the other side, Ervin Santana fits the profile of an affordable pitcher who shouldn’t hurt you too much, but without much upside. He’s kept his HR rate below 10% of fly balls since moving to Minnesota, which is quite the feat considering last year’s league-wide boom, which has kept his ERA a bit below his estimators. Most favorable for him today is what’s expected to be a poor Kansas City offense in an environment that hinders LH power with temperatures in the low 50s.
Other tagged players: Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Robbie Grossman, Brian Dozier, Ervin Santana