DFS Alerts
Targeting hard contact: Philadelphia Phillies
Bartolo Colon’s last outing was a nonstory because his opponent was dealing with the tragic loss of a teammate. After revisiting Colon’s performance over the last couple of weeks, his hard contact allowed stands out, sitting at a ridiculous 49%. When you combine a 15% strikeout rate with this kind of hard contact and a 41% flyball percentage, it is hard to picture Colon getting through this outing without giving up a longball or two. Over the last 14 days, Colon is serving up a generous 2.00 HR/9, a home run rate that supports the notion that his hard contact should cause him trouble today. Look to Cameron Rupp as a sneaky play, considering he has an elite k rate of 15% over the last week and a hard contact percentage of 36% on at-bats ending in contact. Ryan Howard is worth consideration, as well, since he is hitting the ball hard in 57% of at-bats ending in contact over the last week, but his 43% strikeout rate over that period takes some shine off of him as a DFS play.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Danny Valencia scratched from the Athletics lineup
Analysis coming soon.
As reported by: Oakland Athletics Official Twitter Account
Yasmany Tomas has been scratched from Diamondbacks lineup
Tomas has been scratched from the lineup Friday night with an upper back injury. He will be replaced by Mitch Haniger, who will bat from the eighth spot in the Diamondbacks order.
As reported by: Jake Rill Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger Walker has an 18.1% K-BB% and 61.8% GB% in his last four starts
It’s been an up-and-down season for Taijuan Walker, as he’s been everywhere from terrible to outstanding, but in his last four starts, he has looked much closer to the ace that Seattle needs him to be. He had an 11 strikeout complete game shutout against the Angels, followed by two decent starts where he pitched into the sixth inning with three runs allowed and 6-7 strikeouts. There is no questioning his upside at home against Oakland. The Athletics have already mailed it in for the season, having scored two or fewer runs in seven of their last 10 games. Walker is a very viable play on both sites in a game that we fully expect him to win.
As reported by: FanGraphs has a 29.3 K-BB% in 29.1 innings since the trade, but has workload questions tonight
Rich Hill would be a top overall pitcher tonight if all things were equal. He has a 29.3 K-BB% in 29.1 innings since the trade. However, things are not equal. The Dodgers are trying to keep a thin pitching staff healthy going into next week. He’s thrown no more than 93 pitches in any of his five starts for them and just 77 in his last start. We have to consider a pitch count anywhere from 75-95 tonight. Perhaps they’ll want to stretch him out a bit further in his last start? Or maybe that’s wishful thinking. He’s in a great park against a low power offense that has been a bit below average (94 wRC+) and strikes out a bit more (18.5%) vs LHP. It’s a risk paying up for him, but he could may only need six innings to pay off with the way he’s been pitching. Another concern is facing Bumgarner for those on FanDuel looking for Win. The Giants will face a strong bullpen in the latter part of this game (if it’s competitive) and are projected for just over three runs. Leadoff man Gorkys Herandez (118 wRC+, .172 ISO vs LHP since 2015) costs just $2.1K on either site though?
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Gorkys Hernandez
Raul Alcantara (14.6 K%) has allowed hard contact at a clip above 40% to batters from either side through 20 innings
Raul Alcantara has allowed hard contact at a clip above 40% to batters from either side this season with just a 14.6 K% through 20 innings without an incredibly impressive minor league track record. Though highly priced on DraftKings, the middle of the Seattle order looks strong on FanDuel. Both Cruz (135 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP this season) and Cano (150 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP this season) have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week. Both Cano and Kyle Seager (151 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP this season) cost less than $4K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, Raul Alcantara Brewers likely to throw a bullpen game at Coors, starting with Brent Suter
Brent Suter is a low strikeout arm, who has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen since debuting with a start on August 19th. The Rockies are projected for well over six runs, nearly a run higher than the next best team. Players can look to stack this lineup, if affordable, but specific analysis is difficult due to the likelihood of getting into the bullpen early. It’s hard to consider any of these top bats bad plays though. DJ LeMahieu (134 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Nolan Arenado (98 wRC+, .215 ISO) are the two most potent bats who may see the starter twice. Cargo has a .225 ISO vs LHP this season and may or may not see lefties all game with all of the arms available in the bullpen this time of year. This is a high priced offense with uncertain matchups tonight, but expected to be potent in Coors.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Brent Suter Pirates implied run total has plummeted to 3.0 runs
This is an outstanding matchup for Carlos Martinez. He dominates right-handed hitters, and he has held them to a .246 wOBA on the season to go along with a spectacular 25.0% hard hit rate. He does struggle a bit more with left-handed batters, but the majority of Pittsburgh’s thump hits from the right side of the plate. Martinez has become the ace for the Cardinals and this is a huge game for them. His 4.04 SIERA is a step down from some of the other aces, but he also comes in at a significant discount than Bumgarner and Darvish. He’s a fine option on a slate that doesn’t feature much in the way of reliable pitching.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Madison Bumganer has struck out 17 of last 49 Dodgers he's faced.
Madison Bumgarner has a 4.81 ERA through his last eight starts, allowing at least three runs in six of them with eight HRs allowed. The scary thing is that he’s faced quite a few bad offenses (and a few good ones) against LHP during this stretch. However, his 23.4 K-BB% over this span has been an improvement on his season rate and he matches up with the Dodgers at home tonight. They have a 75 wRC+, 22.5 K% and 10.2 HR/FB vs LHP. He’s actually faced the Dodgers twice in LA over this run and despite allowing five runs in the first start, he’s struck out 17 of 49 batters, going seven one-hit shutout innings two starts back against them. Bumgarner, at home tonight, is tonight’s top overall pitcher and potentially a top value with a small price drop below $12K on DraftKings due to recent run prevention struggles. The Dodgers are the only offense projected for fewer than three runs tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Tribe likely headed for a bullpen game on the road in Kansas City
Ryan Merritt is a low strikeout arm with great control. He was ranked 28th in the system by Fangraphs before the season and has done little to change that. He also hasn’t pitched in three weeks. The Royals are likely to see a lot of bullpen in this game. With the Trible still playing for home field, what part of the bullpen they see may be determined by the score. Whit Merrifield (144 wRC+, .147 ISO vs LHP) is likely to see the young lefty twice and costs $2.9K on FanDuel, as will Kendrys Morales (146 wRC+, .233 ISO vs LHP this season), who costs $3.2K there. Both have a wRC+ above 140 over the last week.
Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield, Ryan Merritt Darvish gets prime matchup with the free-swinging Rays offense
When you combine the high strikeout nature of the Rays offense with the high strikeout upside of Yu Darvish, you get a combination that gives Darvish massive upside to go along with just a smidge of risk. There is also some added risk that Texas may be cautious with his pitch count here, as they have wrapped up the AL West title already. However, the Rangers do appear committed to going after home field advantage. Darvish has a 30.6% strikeout rate on the season and could easily go for double-digit strikeouts against this Tampa Bay squad. His 3.22 SIERA is solid, and there’s no doubt about his tournament upside in this spot.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Toronto @ Boston a potential trouble spot in late weather forecast.
David is in for Kevin this weekend and is greeted with a rainy east coast, but the good news is that only one game looks to be potentially severely impacted by rain. That’s the Toronto Boston affair, which he grades YELLOW/ORANGE. With two reasonable pitchers in this game (Estrada and Porcello) it should make this an easier fade if necessary. Minnesota Chicago (AL) has delay potential as well. Read David’s full report on our Weather Page to see other spots with some rain potential and follow him on Twitter (@DavidWolter1) for further updates.
Ryan Schimpf (137 wRC+, .318 ISO vs RHP) a top 2B play with big park upgrade in Arizona against weak RHP
In a very favorable run environment, the weak hitting Padres (81 wRC+ vs RHP) are projected for nearly five runs with not a single bat above $3.5K on FanDuel. Ryan Schimpf (137 wRC+, .318 ISO vs RHP) has been the most potent bat, but can’t crack the top half of the order. He costs a reasonable $4.1K on DraftKings too. Manuel Margot has a 143 wRC+ and .217 ISO through 23 major league PAs, costing $3K or less on either site. Batters from either side have a wOBA above .365 and hard hit rate above 35% against Shipley. The Padres make for an interesting stack for those paying up for pitching tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Manuel Margot Diamondbacks have just an 87 wRC+ vs RHP, but a 20.0 Hard-Soft% and 17.6 HR/FB at home
Edwin Jackson is terrible (5.77 ERA, 5.28 SIERA, 16.1 K%) at this point in his career, but so are the Diamondbacks vs RHP (87 wRC+, 15.7 K-BB%). The park is what plays here though. Arizona has a 20.0 Hard-Soft% and 17.6 HR/FB at home. Jackson doesn’t have much of a platoon split, further enhancing an offense projected for over five and a half runs tonight. They do have three strong bats against RHP in Lamb (128 wRC+, .285 ISO), though he’s dropped off in the second half, Goldschmidt (120 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Segura (136 wRC+, .187 ISO). Exposure is more affordable on FanDuel where Tomas (84 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP this year) costs under $3K too.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas, Edwin Jackson Twins implied run total is on the decline, currently projected at 3.8 runs
Carlos Rodon is one of the few pitchers we can target tonight in a game that doesn’t have something on the line. It’s been a very good season for Rodon with surprising improvement in his control, as evidenced by a 7.4% walk rate. For the most part his strikeouts have been down this year, but he reminded us of his potential upside when he struck out 11 Cleveland hitters in his last start. It’s safe to assume the White Sox won’t push him too hard after throwing 108 pitches last time out, but there’s no reason he can’t go 6-7 innings if the weather cooperates. Rodon is definitely worth a speculative shot in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines