DFS Alerts
Four games at risk of delay, CHC@PIT most concerning in Kevin's late update
As Kevin says right at the top, “Ugly, wet, and windy weather pattern continues”. The biggest concern is in Pittsburgh (ORANGE), but luckily that may be the most fade worthy game on the slate considering the Cubs B lineup. There’s also a bit of concern in the BOS@NYY game, but the hope is that they are able to play through it early and avoid potential trouble later. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for important updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page
Christian Friedrich has a 5.11 xFIP and 6.6% K-BB% versus RHB this season
The Dodgers are not the ideal team to target when they are facing a left-handed pitcher, but the 16.8% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and 5.11 xFIP Christian Friedrich has against right-handed batters puts them firmly into play. Even though Justin Turner is more of a reverse splits hitter, he is still their best right-handed hitter. He has dealt with a low .220 BABIP against left-handed pitchers, but with a 39.8% hard hit rate and good plate skills, his numbers should be much better. Kike Hernandez (.184 ISO vs LHP) has some power upside, and is basically free on FanDuel at $2.1K. Yasiel Puig (.215 ISO vs LHP) had a incredibly disappointing season that forced him to spend time in the minors, but he is still a very talented hitter worth a shot in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Enrique Hernandez, Yasiel Puig, Christian Friedrich
Rob Zastryzny (41st pick in 2013) makes his first major league start in Pittsburgh
Rob Zastryzny was the 41st pick in the 2013 draft and rated as the 16th best prospect in the system by Fangraphs in January, citing inconsistencies in his delivery as a potential issue going forward, making him kind of a “feast or famine” arm. He had just average peripherals through to minor league levels this season (AA & AAA). All of his 12.1 major league innings have come in relief over the last month and half, mostly lasting just an inning, but occasionally going a bit more. There shouldn’t be much of an expectation for him here. The Pirates are a strong offense against LHP at home and could make him work, further shortening his outing, but they’re also a bit banged up from the RH side, missing several bats from their lineup tonight. Though there’s generally a lack of upside in rostering RH Pittsburgh bats at home, Andrew McCutchen (130 wRC+, .183 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Sean Rodriguez (159 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP this season) cost just above $3K on FanDuel, while David Freese (158 wRC+, .211 ISO vs LHP this season) and leadoff man Jordy Mercer (127 wRC+, .180 ISO vs LHP this season) cost less than $3K.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: David Freese, Sean Rodriguez, Jordy Mercer, Robert Zastryzny Jose Quintana has just a 5.6 SwStr% with five HRs allowed last five starts
Jose Quintana’s 3.21 ERA might not show it, but his peripherals have declined. A 21.4 K%, the second highest of his career, comes with just a 7.5 SwStr%, 5.6% over the last month. That would be in line for the lowest mark in the majors over a full season. He’s also walked six of his last 49. In his favor tonight, the Rays strikeout 25.6% of the time against LHP, but he’s a shaky pay up at best tonight. While he’s still been able to suppress HRs this season (9.2 HR/FB), the third straight season he’s done so, he’s also allowed five over his last five starts. For the Rays, Logan Forsythe (115 wRC+, .202 ISO) has been their best hitters against LHP this season, while Mikie Mahtook (74 wRC+, .115 ISO vs LHP) costs just $2.5K or less on either site and hit LHP much better last season. This may be a matchup players might just want to avoid though, with the Rays projected for just over three and a half runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mikie Mahtook, Jose Quintana Archer has an outstanding 23.9% K-BB% since the All-Star Break
Chris Archer has seven or more strikeouts in eight of his last 12 games, and a 27.7% strikeout rate for the season. In addition to the strikeouts, he has brought his walk rate down to an outstanding 5.0% since the All-Star Break. He has also pitched at least six full innings in 20 if his last 22 starts, which adds to both his floor and his ceiling. The White Sox are a below average team against right-handed pitching, and we should have substantial interest in Archer for both cash games and tournaments on both sites. The value of Archer might take a slight hit on FanDuel with the chances of a win less likely than other pitchers in his price range. On DraftKings, Archer is the top overall option with his reasonable price tag.
As reported by: FanGraphs Brian Dozier OUT against Danny Duffy (11 HRs, 42.1 Hard% last six starts)
Brian Dozier’s absence from the lineup should give Danny Duffy a bump, but he’d been struggling lately anyway. Duffy has seen his strikeout rate fluctuate more from start to start with just four in his last start and he has now allowed 11 HRs over his last six starts with a 42.1 Hard%.RHBs now have a .320 wOBA against him with 25 HRs. The biggest component in his favor is a park that limits power, though 13 of those 25 HRs have come at home. We might be able to consider four RH Twins bats tonight, all with favorable price tags below $4K on DraftKings and $3K on FanDuel. Kennys Vargas (244 wRC+, .405 ISO), Miguel Sano (117 wRC+, .244 ISO), Jorge Polanco (134 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Robbie Grossman (175 wRC+, .248 ISO) have all performed well against LHP this season.
Other tagged players: Kennys Vargas, Jorge Polanco, Robbie Grossman, Danny Duffy Julio Urias gets another start in Petco as Dodgers consider him for post-season rotation
Julio Urias was slowly being shut down this month, but is now being considered for the post-season rotation, so they may be looking to build up again a little bit in this start. He threw 78 pitches in his last start just over two weeks ago, so expect something right around that again, consisting of five innings or maybe six if all goes well. We know he can miss bats (24.4 K%). Walks have occasionally been a problem, but the hard contact rate is below 30%. The Padres are a great matchup in Petco. They’ve been slumbering against LHP since the trade deadline, though may once again shuffled the batting order with some new blood again recently. They’ve struck out a ton (25.2% vs LHP) this season. If we consider a 75% workload for Urias, we have to consider if we’d like him as a $10K to $11K pitcher with a full one and the answer is probably yes even if we don’t consider him a top value tonight. While without enough of a major league track record to judge, Hunter Renfroe has started his career off strong (267 wRC+) and costs just $2.2K on FanDuel, but remember that there will likely be four innings of bullpen here. Leadoff man Manuel Margo (135 wRC+) costs less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot Josh Collmenter has surrendered seven home runs in just 34.1 innings pitched this season
Josh Collmenter has been a reverse splits power pitcher throughout his career with high fly balls to right-handed batters (49.9%). He has also historically had a very low strikeout rate (13.7%) with a more average batted ball profile against left-handed batters. Chasing after Phillies power bats in a ballpark with a lean towards pitching is less than exciting, so definitely proceed with caution, but we could see a home run or two from guys like Tommy Joseph (.272 ISO, 45.8% hard hits vs RHP) or Maikel Franco (.159 ISO vs RHP), who is cheap on FanDuel but way overpriced on DraftKings. Odubel Herrera (126 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .169 ISO vs RHP) is the Phillies best overall hitter against right-handed pitching and can certainly be considered as a part of a Phillies mini-stack in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, Josh Collmenter Jays top projected offense (5.2 runs), but Ubaldo has struck out 16 of last 50 with 53.8 GB% over last month
A first look at Toronto’s 5.2 run projection sitting atop the board makes you think this is the offense to have the most exposure to tonight. Indeed Ubaldo Jimenez has been a mess for most of the last few years and Josh Donaldson (153 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top projected bat tonight with a 248 wRC+ over the last week, while Jose Bautista (141 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a to projected OF one (219 wRC+, 50 Hard% over the last week), but there may also be reasons to consider fading this offense. Ubaldo Jimenez is a pitcher with bad control, but doesn’t necessarily allow a ton of hard contact (just 36 HRs last two seasons combined) and he has been pitching better, striking out 16 of his last 50 batters. He also has a 53.8 GB% over the last month. Blue Jay bats that may be more grounded and unable to hit for much power are less potent. While they probably do fairly well in this matchup more often than not, only Michael Saunders (101 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has any real, impossible to ignore success against Jimenez (four HRs in 21 PAs). This is a pitcher they’ve seen often the last few years and the big three have just two combined HRs against him in 116 combined PAs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Michael Saunders, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jose Bautista Marcus Stroman's strikeout rate down to 18.7% over the last month, but with an 11.3 SwStr%
Marcus Stroman has the top ground ball rate in baseball (60.5%) by more than three full points. He’s at 62.5% with a 28.3 Hard% over his last 16 starts. The strikeout rate is down to 18.7% over the last month, but the SwStr rate is 11.3%, which is good news. The Orioles lean mostly right-handed, but their RHBs hit RHP well. They will strike out a bit (23.1% on the road, 21.5% vs RHP), but have a 17.0 HR/FB vs RHP. Stroman has no platoon split. He’s faced Baltimore twice this year, but not since June. One start was fine, but with just three strikeouts. In the other, the Orioles walloped him. The cost is reasonable, around $8K, and if all goes well, he’ll be able to keep them grounded and accumulate a few strikeouts. For the O’s, Chris Davis (117 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP this season) drops in the order, but seems much too cheap on DraftKings ($3.2K), while Hyun Soo Kim (131 wRC+, .131 ISO vs RHP) could have some value on either site for less than $3K.
Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Hyun-Soo Kim Henry Owens last pitched on September 5th at AAA, Yankees likely to see the Boston bullpen very early
Henry Owens last pitched on September 5th at AAA. The Yankees are likely to see the Boston bullpen very early, which gives analysis of this matchup less value, but LHBs (.398 wOBA) have actually hit Owens better than RHBs (.340 wOBA) through 80 major league innings. Gary Sanchez (129 wRC+, .385 ISO career vs LHP) has finally hit his first slump (42 wRC+ last seven days), but is still likely the top Catcher on the board and top play here. Starlin Castro (99 wR+, .166 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $2.1K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Henry Owens, Starlin Castro Red Sox are rolling out a prototypical "day-after-clinching-the-division" lineup versus Sabathia
CC Sabathia has actually been solid this season, getting a lot of ground balls (49.7%) and soft contact (25.1% Hard%) which has kept the runs to a minimum in the majority of his starts. Despite the relatively strong metrics, it’s hard to imagine him completely shutting down this Boston offense, but the numbers for Red Sox hitters against left-handed pitching outside of are nothing to write home about. Xander Bogaerts (132 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .160 ISO vs LHP) has strong enough plate skills against lefties to get on base at a high clip, but there’s not a lot of upside in his individual matchup. The only viable route to roster hitters would be in a full Red Sox stack. Chris Young draws the start as well, making him a great tournament play with his .426 wOBA and .288 ISO against left-handed pitching. To summarize, the Red Sox can obviously go off at anytime, but with no substantial discount on their prices, it could be best to avoid them and target our bats elsewhere.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Chris Young Dan Straily has a 12.9 BB% in September and 20 HRs over his last 17 starts
Dan Straily is an extreme fly ball pitcher, who has now allowed 20 HRs over his last 17 starts and has a 12.9 BB% in September. That leads to multi-run homers. His ERA doesn’t necessarily reflect performance due to a .238 BABIP and 80.7 LOB%. Despite a power suppressing environment, the Cardinals have a league average HR rate at home and a bit more power vs RHP (14.9 HR/FB), while Straily has actually been hit a bit harder by RHBs since last season (.314 wOBA, 34.2 Hard%). This is an advantage to the Cardinals who stack up RHBs against him tonight. Chris Carpenter (149 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is still so good that he’s the top bat, but we’re looking at a reasonably priced lineup with perhaps a lot of value on either site, but especially FanDuel, where Randal Grichuk (120 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $3.1K and Aledmys Diaz (148 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP) costs $3.3K. Piscotty (110 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Peralta (108 wRC+, .129 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs $3.7K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Aledmys Diaz, Jhonny Peralta, Dan Straily With a 4.6 run implied team total, the Royals are a viable tournament stack tonight
This is an entirely unexciting matchup but on an abbreviated slate we must discuss. Kyle Gibson is a low strikeout (15.4%), ground ball pitcher (49.0% GB%) going against a good, but low power offense in a pitcher’s park. Hitters like Eric Hosmer (118 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .178 ISO vs RHP), Kendrys Morales (.195 ISO vs RHP), Jarrod Dyson and Alex Gordon (.173 ISO vs RHP) are all fairly priced against the low strikeout rate to left-handed batters of Gibson, but there is so little upside, we don’t want to use any of them as one offs. If just picking one, it would be Dyson, as his stolen base ability gives him the most upside of the group. But if BABIP does end up working against Gibson, we could see one of those 20 hit, double-digit run games from Kansas City that would make a stack a winnable play.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon, Kyle Gibson Alex Reyes has tremendous upside, but a double digit walk rate and 115 pitches last start
Alex Reyes certainly has an electric arm (25.6 K% in six outings at least 3.2 innings since his first start), but also has a double digit walk rate at every stop as a professional, including in the majors this year. The good news is that the Cardinals are still fighting for a Wild Card spot and won’t be pulling punches, but the bad news is that same reasoning saw him throw 115 pitches in his last start. Thoughts are that the Cardinals might prefer not to repeat that, though he’s in a nice spot (Reds 85 wRC+ on the road) in a big park against an offense with below average power and a couple of bats missing tonight. We’d essentially prefer more confidence in 100 pitches and six innings, but with the Reds projected for just 3.3 runs (second lowest on the board) if players go anywhere in this game, it should probably be to side with the pitcher.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds