DFS Alerts
Mallex Smith, Dansby Swanson top Braves order against Jeremy Hellickson
Jeremy Hellickson has just a 14.6 K% with a 4.74 SIERA and 4.47 xFIP over the last month, while the Braves have a team 116 wRC+ over the same period. A significant park upgrade should help him keep the ball in the park against a lower power offense, but the lack of upside is concerning with the Braves actually closer to the top of the board than the bottom with a 4.5 run projection. Though batters from either side have a hard hit rate just below 30%, LHBs have a .334 wOBA against him since last season, some 27 points higher than RHBs. Freddie Freeman (157 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains one of the hottest batters on the planet (315 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days) and is a top overall bat tonight. Matt Kemp (100 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is cheap enough to be interesting ($3.7K or below) with a 217 wRC+ and 45.5 Hard% over the last week. The interesting part is a top of the lineup that the Braves hope is a peak into their future with Mallex Smith (128 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP) and Dansby Swanson (85 wRC+, .078 ISO vs RHP). The former is perhaps better employed on FanDuel ($2.4K), while the latter may be of more value on DraftKings ($2.7K).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Dansby Swanson, Mallex Smith, Jeremy Hellickson
Yasmany Tomas scratched due to a stiff neck, Mitch Haniger replaces him in the lineup
Haniger will bat 6th in the lineup, where Tomas was originally hitting.
As reported by: @Arizona Diamondbacks Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger
Arizona @ Washington to be delayed
Arizona @ Washington is going to be delayed despite no rain yet in the area. While Kevin did express some optimism about this game in his last update, he also just stated on Twitter that the weather may only get worse the longer they wait, potentially increasing the risk in this game once again.
As reported by: Mark Zuckerman Kevin has decreased his concern in the Arizona @ Washington game
While there is still some late risk, Kevin has upgraded Arizona @ Washington to YELLOW/ORANGE as he is now more optimistic about the chances of this game getting in.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Jeff Samardzija has a 17.3 K-BB% and 2.66 ERA over his last eight starts
Jeff Samardzija has a 2.66 ERA with estimators not much higher over his last eight starts, including a 17.3 K-BB% and pitching into the seventh inning five times, looking more like the pitcher the Giants thought they’d signed. Only two of those starts were in hitter friendly parks, struggling only at Wrigley, but that’s fine because he’s at home tonight against the Rockies (84 wRC+, 16.7 K-BB% on the road and 51 wRC+, 22.5 K-BB% last seven days). This is one pitcher you can be sure won’t be limited tonight either. The Giants are still pushing for a post-season berth. Projected for just a little over three runs, the lowest total on the board, there’s no interest in Colorado bats tonight.
Pirates have a low implied run total (3.3), but Arrieta may not get his normal workload
The best pitcher on the mound tonight is in a tough situation to predict, making it difficult to pay for. If Jake Arrieta is rolling along as easily as he did in his last start, I suppose it’s possible we could see seven innings, but with this being nothing more than a final tune up for the playoffs, there is no reason for the Cubs to push him. There is some additional risk in his performance over the second half of the season with a walk rate of 10.2% since the All-Star Break. Maybe he got things turned around in that last dominant start, but that was his first big strikeout game since mid-June. Because the slate is so pitching weak, he is worth considering in cash games, but it’s difficult to make a case for paying for him in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines
High concern for Arizona @ Washington game
Kevin grades the Arizona Washington game as ORANGE citing thunderstorms and a Flash Flood Watch. While he believes the most likely scenario has the game eventually playing this is certainly a spot players can consider fading as the opportunity lost against Shelby Miller appears less considering that half of Washington's normal starters are out. There's also delay potential in Cleveland Detroit and Tampa Bay Chicago (AL). It's a busy night with significant potential weather impact, so make sure to read Kevin's full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for important updates.
Padres only have an implied run total of 3.5 runs
Jose De Leon is a huge strikeout upside pitcher who had a 32.5% strikeout rate in Triple-A this season, and was well over the 30% mark throughout his time in the minors. He showed that upside against this same Padres team in his first major league start, striking out nine batters in six innings, but followed that up with two poor starts. The Padres certainly bring that strikeout upside back into play, but we should assume that the risk of limited innings outweighs the likelihood of another nine strikeout game. We are not getting any substantial savings either, so De Leon is nothing more than a tournament option if building multiple lineups. In fact, some of the more inexpensive Padres bats, like Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe, could be used as cash game fillers in this spot given their price tags.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe Cole Hamels bounced back striking out seven A's with just two walks last time out
Cole Hamels snapped a string of rough starts, shutting out the A’s in Oakland for six innings, striking out seven and walking fewer than three for the first time in four starts. While he’s right on his career strikeout rate, his 9.4 BB% and 14.2 HR/FB are career highs, though his 50% ground ball rate is up too. This start at home against the Brewers presents may have a wide range of potential outcomes. He’s likely to be a very popular arm because they strike out 24.8% of the time both on the road and vs LHP and the only other high priced pitcher (Arrieta) has workload questions, but the Brewers also have an 11.8 BB% and 15.9 HR/FB vs LHP too, both issues known to have plagued Hamels this year, giving players a legitimate reason to fade tonight. While there are four batters with a wRC+ above 130 and ISO above .220 vs LHP in this lineup, only Domingo Santana (154 wRC+, .233 ISO) is discounted below $4K on both sites. This is a surprise considering how DraftKings usually adjusts their pricing dynamic according to matchups and situations.
Other tagged players: Domingo Santana Blake Snell has gone five or fewer innings in seven of last eight, White Sox have a 104 wRC+ vs LHP
Blake Snell has an unsustainably high BABIP (.358) and low HR rate (5.6 HR/FB), while nine of his 44 runs (20.5%) are unearned. He does miss bats, but a 12.8 BB% in addition to some conservative usage has kept him to five innings or less in seven of his last eight starts. The White Sox are an above average offense against LHP (104 wRC+), though that only really applies to four bats in tonight’s lineup. Todd Frazier (132 wRC+, .327 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is an affordable Third Base power option on FanDuel ($3.4K), while Melky Cabrera (133 wRC+, .183 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $3K there as well. Tim Anderson (113 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP) costs $3.3K or less on either site and Jose Abreu (119 wRC+, .242 ISO vs LHP this season) has finally started showing some potency against southpaws and costs less than $4K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Blake Snell, Melky Cabrera Wind blowing out at U.S. Cellular makes Rays power bats intriguing options tonight
Miguel Gonzalez will be dealing with substantial wind blowing out of a hitter’s park and facing a team with a good number of home run hitters. Gonzalez has had very good fortune with a 5.5% HR/FB rate to right-handed batters this season, but historically, reverse splits power (1.35 HR/9 vs RHB) has been an issue for him. He allows fly balls to left-handed batters as well, and has also seen a bit of good fortune on HR/FB there as well (9.1%). Evan Longoria (132 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .263 ISO vs RHP), Logan Forsythe (.180 ISO vs RHP), Nick Franklin (138 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .213 ISO vs RHP), Brad Miller (121 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .269 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Dickerson (.264 ISO vs RHP) are the top plays, with Longoria and Dickerson being notably under-priced on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson, Miguel Gonzalez Scott Schebler scratched, Iribarren in CF, batting second.
Scott Schebler scratched with sore left hamstring. Hernan Iribarren will replace him in CF, and bat second. In a pitcher’s park against a pitcher who keeps the ball on the ground, but has some HR issues, this does not have a lot of daily fantasy impact, but it is a very cheap bat ($2.7K or less on either site) batting in the second spot. Iribarren is 32 years old with just 58 major league plate appearances though.
As reported by: Cincinnati Reds Other tagged players: Scott Schebler LHBs have a .359 wOBA against DeSclafani, Carpenter (143 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP) just $3.8K on DraftKings
Anthony DeSclafani has a 3.38 ERA because 12% of his runs have been unearned. He’s not in a terrible spot against a Cardinals offense that has been struggling and has just a 100 wRC+ at home, but still seems over-priced, especially for $9.6K on DraftKings. While LHBs have a .359 wOBA against him this season, there’s some value to be had in Cardinals bats, especially on DraftKings, where Matt Carpenter (143 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP this season) costs just $3.8K. In fact, Grichuk (104 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this season) and Diaz (150 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP) are the only other bats above $3.3K on DK. Greg Garcia (123 wRC+ vs RHP) bats eighth, but could serve as a middle infield punt on either site if necessary. Matt Adams is an unfortunate omission tonight.
Other tagged players: Anthony DeSclafani, Greg Garcia, Aledmys Diaz, Randal Grichuk Rangers currently own the highest implied run total (5.4) of the evening
Chase Anderson has a 1.21 ERA over the past month, making it seem like he’s actually been pitching well. His 4.55 SIERA tells a different story, although he’s realistically been somewhere between those two numbers. Below average strikeouts (19.0%), decent control and fly balls (41.2%) with reverse splits power doesn’t seem likely to work out well in Arlington. He has allowed big home run totals to right-handed batters throughout his career and this season has a 1.91 HR/9 with a 39.9% hard hit rate against righties, and has been only slightly better against left-handed batters. To attack the reverse splits of Anderson, we can start at the top of the order with Carlos Gomez (.164 ISO vs RHP) and Ian Desmond (.163 ISO vs RHP), then move down to Adrian Beltre (117 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .204 ISO vs RHP) and Jonathan Lucroy (128 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .191 ISO vs RHP) in the middle of the lineup to round out the stack.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Jonathan Lucroy, Ian Desmond, Chase Anderson DBacks hit LHP hard (109 wRC+, 19.9 HR/FB), but overall performance greatly reduced on the road (87 wRC+, 11.6 HR/FB)
The Diamondbacks have a reputation for mashing LHP and that’s partially deserved with a 109 wRC+ and 19.9 HR/FB against them. However, they still strike out 23.6% of the time against southpaws and their performance drops off drastically on the road overall (87 wRC+, 11.6 HR/FB), while they have a 22.8 K-BB% over the last week. Additionally, with Welington Castillo’s drop-off, he is down to a 124 wRC+ and .246 ISO vs LHP, still fine numbers, but nowhere near what they were earlier in the season. Goldschmidt (186 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Tomas (177 wRC+, .312 ISO) are the main threats against LHP this year, the latter costing just $2.8K on FanDuel. Gio Gonzalez has done a great job of inducing weak contact (2.1 Hard-Soft%) on the ground (55.4%) over his last six starts, while keeping his strikeout rate above average (23.1%). He costs $8.2K and is expected to be lightly owned according to our Projected Ownership page, likely due to misconceptions about Arizona’s dominance of LHP, but also because of the potential for an early exit with the Nationals preparing for the post-season. However, Gio has only thrown more than 105 pitches twice in his last 17 starts anyway and has been right around 90 in four of his last five starts. How much further can they limit him. While there’s always a fair amount of risk in rostering him, there’s really not a lot of upside elsewhere being sacrificed.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Welington Castillo, Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas