DFS Alerts
Brewers have just the fourth highest run projection tonight (5.4) facing Chad Bettis at Coors
The Brewers have just the fourth highest run projection tonight (5.4) facing Chad Bettis at Coors. One reason may be that Bettis keeps the ball on the ground (51.5%) and though he’s actually worse against RHBs (.357 wOBA this season), they have only taken him deep five times at home this season. Regardless, the middle of the Milwaukee order, all being right-handed, potentially holds a lot of value. Ryan Braun (123 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is fairly expensive, while Chris Carter (103 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a more moderate cost on either site and Domingo Santana (89 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs less than $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Chris Carter, Domingo Santana, Chad Bettis
Tyler Glasnow has not thrown more than 87 pitches in any of three starts, going just three innings each of last two
Tyler Glasnow has not thrown more than 87 pitches in any of his three starts and that was in his first, while being held to three innings in each of his last two. You can safely forget about him against the Cardinals on DraftKings for more than $7K, but he costs just $4.4K on FanDuel and is a top pitching prospect with some enormous strikeout rates in the minors. Projected for just 4.4 runs and likely to see the bullpen early, players might consider just sticking to top half of the order bats like Carpenter (149 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Diaz (150 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Piscotty (110 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who hit pitchers from either side fairly well here, though Molina and Peralta both have a wRC+ above 190 over the last week and cost $3.7K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Tyler Glasnow, Stephen Piscotty, Aledmys Diaz, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta Yovani Gallardo heads to Yankee Stadium with a 36.4 GB% vs LHBs this year
While Yovani Gallardo has kept hard contact below 30%, he’s not missing bats and no longer keeping the ball on the ground either (36.4 GB% vs LHBs this season). Batters from each side are within two points of a .355 wOBA against him this season, making a start in Yankee Stadium concerning, despite the underwhelming power in this lineup at this point. Gary Sanchez (193 wRC+, .364 ISO vs RHP career) has just a 5 wRC+ over the last week, but is still a top Catching option. Mark Teixeira (115 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015) looks to end his career on a high note with a 320 wRC+ over the last week. Brian McCann (105 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a cheaper pivot off his own teammate.
Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Yovani Gallardo, Gary Sanchez Michael Pineda has a 3.66 ERA with a 22.2 K-BB% since the beginning of June
Michael Pineda has a 3.66 ERA with a 22.2 K-BB% with a 32.8 Hard% just a bit higher than league average and a more acceptable 14.9 HR/FB with a .312 BABIP in a difficult park since the beginning of June. Give this guy a better park and defense and he’s an All-Star, though some of his issues have been self-inflicted. He does face a dangerous, high powered offense tonight (107 wRC+, 16.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but the Orioles will strike out a bit and he is in a three way tie for the second highest SwStr rate in baseball this season (14.2%). With a climbing price, but still less than $9.5K, Pineda is again potentially one of the top values on the board. The Orioles do have some cheap bats worth considering here though. Hyun-Soo Kim (133 wRC+, .129 ISO vs RHP) has little power, but continues to be a bargain in the second slot for $3K or less on either site. Chris Davis (118 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP this season) costs $3.6K or less on either site. Mark Trumbo (142 wRC+, .298 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 250 wRC+ and 56.3 Hard% over the last week and costs $3.2K on FanDuel. Pineda has virtually no platoon split.
Other tagged players: Hyun-Soo Kim, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo Cole is an interesting low-cost pitching option around the industry tonight
In all honesty, there is not a whole lot to love with this matchup, but the pitching options are just awful on this slate. We shouldn’t worry about the recent game log for A.J. Cole, as he had one rough start followed by another where he got ejected for throwing at an opposing hitter. This is a favorable matchup against a Marlins team that is likely ready to just end the season at this point. They’ve had massive struggles offensively in the second half, and they obviously have had to endure an unbelievable tragedy. Cole has a reasonable 4.32 SIERA and a solid hard contact rate allowed of just 24.2%. His strikeout rate is 24.3%, which is above league average, but he has never had that type of strikeout upside in the minors. It’s viable to go here on a night dearth of starting pitching options.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page
Daniel Norris has struck out 30 of 95 batters and has a 13.4 SwStr% over the last month
Daniel Norris has struck out 30 of 95 batters in September. He’s shown strikeout potential in the minors and now that’s finally showing through in the majors with a 13.4 SwStr% this month. His 0.64 GB/FB with a 37.5 Hard% is a bit of a concern over this span, but though the Braves are an improved offense, power is still probably something we don’t have to worry about much (7.5 HR/FB at home, 7.4 HR/FB vs LHP). They even strike out at a league average rate vs LHP (20.8%). Norris is a lefty with decent upside for less than $8K tonight and a nice compliment to a higher priced arm on two pitcher sites. LHBs (.341 wOBA) have actually hit him a bit better than RHBs (.318 wOBA) since last season, but Matt Kemp (151 wRC+, .315 ISO vs LHP this season) is still the bat players might have interest in here for just $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Matt Kemp Tigers lose DH to end season in Atlanta, RHBs 35.9 career Hard% against Wisler
RHBs have just a .291 wOBA against Matt Wisler, partially due to a big park and strong defense, but also potentially some luck. He’s certainly in a tough spot facing eight of them against the Tigers tonight, who hit RHP well (107 wRC+) and have been the hottest offense in the league (175 wRC+, 20.0 HR/FB over the last week). Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez each have a wRC+ a bit above 150 with an ISO within five points of .250 vs RHP this season. Cabrera, Justin Upton (103 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP this season) and Ian Kinsler (117 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP this season) all have at least a 249 wRC+ oover the last week. Nick Castellanos has done good work against RHP this season too (142 wRC+, .218 ISO) and costs just $2.4K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos, Matt Wisler Robert Gsellman struck out eight of 26 Phillies with a 75% GB rate and -12.5 Hard-Soft% in his last start
Robert Gsellman struck out eight of 26 Phillies through seven shutout innings of three-hit ball in his best major league start last time out. While his 2.56 ERA still over-states his performance so far (3.92 SIERA), he generated a 75% ground ball rate and -12.5 Hard-Soft% in that game too. That’s about as dominant as a pitcher can be. He now has a 54.4 GB% with a reasonable 13.2 K-BB% through 38.2 innings. The Phillies may be a bit more prepared for him the second time around, but it’s still one of the top spots on the board (16.9 K-BB% at home, 15.8 K-BB% vs RHP). While we shouldn’t expect that type of dominance again, at a cost below $7K, he could be one of the better values on the board and make a great paring with a higher priced guy on two pitcher sites. There is one concern though. As an in-established arm in a game the Mets need, Terry Collins might be quick to pull the trigger on him should he get into trouble. With the Phillies projected for just 3.4 runs that may not be a problem though. Ryan Howard (105 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2015) still has some power in that bat at a reasonable price on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryan Howard Alec Asher has a career 0.83 GB/FB, Mets have six bats with an ISO above .200 vs RHP this year
In 50 major league innings, Alec Asher has just an 11.1 K%, while maintaining a league average hard hit rate (29.9%), but a 0.83 GB/FB in Philadelphia is a bit dangerous as he’s allowed eight HRs, though none this year. LHBs have a .381 wOBA and .354 ISO. As such, Mets LHBs project well here on either site. Granderson, Bruce and Duda all have a wRC+ within two points of 120 vs RHP this season with an ISO above .200 and a wRC+ above 200 over the last week. Down in the lineup, Duda costs just $2.7K on FanDuel. Asdrubal Cabrera (118 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP this season) has cooled down a bit and costs $3.4K on FanDuel. RHBs have a .331 wOBA, but just a 23.5 Hard% against Asher. Cespedes and T.J. Rivera both have an ISO above .200 against RHP this season.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda, Asdrubal Cabrera, T.J. Rivera, Alec Asher Reds facing Cubs bullpen tonight in a game to be started by Jake Buchanan
The Cubs declined to name a starter until late last night in a process that probably went something like a hat with a bunch of non-essential names on the Cubs roster and Joe Maddon sticking his hand in and picking. Buchanan is irrelevant having thrown one inning in September. The Cubs will start with him and throw whoever is available, potentially giving the front end of their bullpen an inning or two to keep them sharp. Players can consider Joey Votto and Adam Duvall, who have little platoon split and are unlikely to be at much of a disadvantage against whichever non-essential personnel the Cubs deploy on the mound for at least most of this game.
Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Jake Buchanan Cubs return all of key bats to lineup in Cincinnati against Josh Smith.
Josh Smith hasn’t been terrible in 54.2 innings out of the bullpen with just one start this season (19.5 K%), but he does have a 10.1 BB% and as a 29 year-old rookie, not terrible is probably his upside at this point. The Cubs return all of their key bats to the lineup and are projected for five runs here with a team 10.2 BB% vs RHP, but the key question is whether or not the starters will all play full games as the Cubs probably have less interest than any team in the majors in playing this weekend. If so, LHBs have a .425 wOBA, 33.3 Hard% against Smith, who had a cup of coffee last year too (32.2 innings). All things being equal, this is a very stackable lineup with Anthony Rizzo (150 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the obvious top bat and Ben Zobrist (113 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP since 2015) quite a bit cheaper than the top three and potentially the top value. While there doesn’t appear to be any clear indication that Maddon may pull his starters at some point, the question probably should still be asked.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Josh Smith Harper returns, Murphy still OUT as Nationals face Andrew Cashner
Andrew Cashner has had terrible peripherals since the trade with a 12.7 BB% and 38.7 Hard%. LHBs have absolutely destroyed him since last season (.380 wOBA, 37.5 Hard%), which makes this a great spot for the return of Bryce Harper (118 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP this year). He’s had a down season with many suspecting he’s been injured for most of it, but is certainly worth a flyer here at a reasonable price based on matchup alone. Stephen Drew (132 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP this season) is putting up Bryce Harper’s numbers in limited opportunities vs RHP this year and is the bargain SS on FanDuel for $2.5K. Other LHBs Lobaton, Robinson and Espinosa are also priced near minimally on FD and lowly on DK, but are all below average hitters with below average power against RHP.
Other tagged players: Stephen Drew, Jose Lobaton, Clint Robinson, Danny Espinosa, Andrew Cashner Jon Gray has struck out 26 of his last 50 batters
Jon Gray lasted just four innings in his last start, but still struck out 10 and has struck out 26 of his last 50 batters. Despite facing the offense with the lowest strikeout rate in the National League (16.9% at home, 17.3% vs RHP), he still has high strikeout upside. Perhaps what the Giants refuse him in strikeouts, the extremely negative offensive environment will return in terms of run prevention. A good pitcher in Colorado can turn into a great pitcher in San Francisco. There are no workload concerns as he’s thrown over 100 pitches in each of his last two starts, but just 106 in his last start. Additionally, our Projected Ownership page only has him as the 5th or 6th most popular pitcher with fairly low ownership rates on either site. While ideally, players would probably like to avoid San Francisco bats, many are above average hitters against RHP (even if not with a lot of power) and may be priced too cheaply on DraftKings. Pence (122 wRC+, .131 ISO), Belt (133 wRC+, .185 ISO), Posey (105 wRC+, .136 ISO) and Crawford (111 wRC+, .186 ISO) are all barely above $3K.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford On a night lacking in offensive options, Seattle may be the top team to target
Kendall Graveman gets by pretty well against right-handed batters with his ground balls (54.9%) and soft contact (25.5% Hard%), but he doesn’t have the same skills to left-handed batters. He still gets above average ground balls at 49.8%, but with no ability to limit hard hits and just a 13.6% strikeout rate, this lineup should be able to get to him. Robinson Cano (151 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .256 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Seager (152 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .235 ISO vs RHP) are two of the top plays of the day without taking price into account. On FanDuel, they remain at the top of the list with their low salaries, but on DraftKings, Cano becomes a tournament-only play at $5.5K, and pretty tough to play even in a Seattle stack at that price. Seth Smith (120 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .179 ISO vs RHP) and Adam Lind (.206 ISO, 38.6% hard hits vs RHP) are playable in stacks or as tournament one offs.
Other tagged players: Robinson Cano, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Kendall Graveman Five of 12 hits allowed in Ariel Miranda's last four starts have been HRs, A's have RH power
Ariel Miranda has allowed 11 HRs in 52.2 innings with a 0.68 GB/FB and 36.5 Hard%. This month, he has a .137 BABIP and 86.4 LOB% leading to a 2.79 ERA. He’s allowed exactly three hits in four straight starts with five of the 12 hits being HRs. He has a well below average 17.9 K% on the season. The A’s have some potent bats against LHP, but with Valencia and Smolinski hitting a bit lower than expected, Ryon Healy (148 wRC+, .246 ISO vs LHP) batting third for $3.7K or less on either site, might be the most interesting bat. He has a 228 wRC+ over the last week. Kris Davis (139 wRC+, .287 ISO vs LHP this season) and Marcus Semien (119 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP this season) are priced affordably on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Jake Smolinski, Danny Valencia, Ariel Miranda, Marcus Semien