DFS Alerts
Santana has induced a 11.5% SwStr% since the All-Star Break
Ervin Santana has a 26.2% strikeout rate over the past month and 22.8% since the All-Star Break. His walks have increased along with the strikeouts, but if these strikeouts are even remotely real, we have to take it into account. The Royals are hanging on by a thread in the Wild Card race, and have been hitting well, so we should expect them to be playing at their best tonight, which doesn’t necessarily change anything, but it doesn’t help Santana knowing they’ll be buckling down in every at bat. Santana is an under-the-radar option that could pay off big time if he is able to maintain his newly found strikeout ability.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Five of nine Twins bats have a .240+ ISO vs LHP this season
Jason Vargas threw 52 and 70 pitches in his first two starts, so he may not be long for this game and the expectation should be that he will be replaced with a RHP as the Twins are prepared for a LHP with this lineup. This does devalue their top bats. While Brian Dozier (159 wRC+, .348 ISO vs LHP this season) is now over-priced as he’s hit the skids (-31 wRC+ last seven days) players could still consider the other potent bats in this lineup on FanDuel, all between $2.7K and $3.1K. Sano (117 wRC+, .247 ISO), Polanco (146 wRC+, .246 ISO), Grossman (180 wRC+, .252 ISO) and Vargas (262 wRC+, .429 ISO) have all shown exceptional power against LHP this year, though this is not a power friendly park.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, Robbie Grossman, Jason Vargas
Mike Foltynewicz has a 24.8 K% last six starts, but is coming off a two week layoff
Mike Foltynewicz has had mixed results, but has been showing some strong strikeout upside since the middle of August (24.8 K% last six starts). He’s in a great spot hosting the Phillies tonight too, but is coming off a two week layoff with a calf issue. The Braves have no reason to push him tonight. Not knowing how long he’ll be for this game affects the Phillies bats too, though LHBs have a .367 wOBA against him since last season and Ryan Howard (106 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 227 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week and may be the salary saver at First Base tonight for $3.1K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Mike Foltynewicz Francisco Liriano has a 13.4 SwStr% over the last month, Orioles have an 83 wRC+ vs LHP
Francisco Liriano facing the Orioles is a matchup with many opportunities. He has a 14.8 K-BB% with a league average walk rate since the trade. His hard contact rate remains around 34% with an 18.9 HR/FB and 50% ground ball rate, so perhaps the drop to a .250 BABIP is a fluke, but he has at least been useful and pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start. The Orioles have a 15.8 K-BB% on the road and struggle with LHP (83 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 11.8 HR/FB). No pitcher on the board has a strikeout rate above 25% tonight nor beats his 13.4 SwStr% over the last month. Players may want to look at his upside for around $8K on either site. He does occasionally get hit hard by RHBs though (.344 wOBA, 21 HRs this season) and no Baltimore bat on DraftKings is priced above $4K with just three of them above $3K. While Machado (150 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Hardy (104 wRC+, .190 ISO) have been the only above average bats against LHP this year, Mark Trumbo (59 wRC+) does add power (.219 ISO) and has a 1654 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, J.J. Hardy, Mark Trumbo Chris Tillman strikes out RHB at a lower clip (17.6%) than LHB, leading to a 32.6% Hard%
Chris Tillman has allowed home runs to right-handed batters consistently throughout his career (1.46 HR/9) and has even seen an increase in his fly ball rate recently. The Blue Jays big three of Edwin Encarnacion (136 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .269 ISO vs RHP), Josh Donaldson (157 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .278 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Bautista ((126 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .219 ISO vs RHP) are among the best tournament plays on the board tonight. Russell Martin (.180 ISO vs RHP) and Troy Tulowitzki (.201 ISO vs RHP) are viable pieces to round out a tournament stack, and Michael Saunders (.207 ISO vs RHP) is under-priced on both major sites making him a fine salary saver despite his rough overall performance the past month or so.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Saunders, Chris Tillman Every Mets batter tonight has at least a 120 wRC+ over the last week
Jose Urena has allowed 12 runs over five innings in his last two starts to the Braves and Phillies. The Mets offense has busted out for double digit runs in two of their last three games and every bat in the lineup has at least a 120 wRC+ over the last week. Batters from either side have hit Urena fairly well in his career. Though nobody really stands out strongly above the rest, everyone except the Catcher, batting eighth, appears playable here. Lucas Duda (127 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats seventh, but has a 188 wRC+, 40 Hard% over the last week and costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. Jay Bruce (119 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP this season) is heating up (218 wRC+ over the last week) and may be the value play on DraftKings for $4.1K. Asdrubal Cabrera (121 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP this season) also has a wRC+ above 200 over the last week and may be the hottest hitter in baseball over the last month (181 wRC+). He costs a reasonable $3.3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Jose Urena Clay Buchholz has allowed two runs or less in three of four, but with a 15.3 K% and 37.8 Hard%
Clay Buchholz has allowed two runs or less in three of four starts since returning to the rotation this month, but with just a 15.3 K% and 37.8% hard hit rate. LHBs have a .354 wOBA with a 36.4 Hard% against him this season, but RHBs have 15 of his 21 HRs allowed. We’re looking at the two Yankee Catchers tonight. Gary Sanchez (204 wRC+, .380 ISO vs RHP career) remains unstoppable and is tonight’s top bat behind the plate. Brian McCann (106 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.2K on FanDuel for those looking for a punt.
Other tagged players: Brian McCann, Clay Buchholz Don't get too focused on individual matchups for Tigers bats in bullpen game for Cleveland
The Indians are running out of starting pitchers and are bringing Zach McAllister out of the bullpen for tonight’s start against the Tigers. He hasn’t pitched more than two innings in any game this season, so we should assume a short outing, followed by a parade of relievers. The Indians are still fighting for home field in the playoffs, so they would certainly prefer to win this game, but their focus has to be saving whatever pitching they can for the playoffs, so I don’t expect that we’ll see all of the best bullpen arms in this situation. It’s unfortunately not very helpful to break down the individual matchups with no idea who they’ll be facing or for how long, so our best targets are the top hitters for Detroit, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler, followed by Cameron Maybin and Justin Upton.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton, Zach McAllister All the key bats in Cubs lineup in Pittsburgh against Jameson Taillon
With the Cubs resting their regulars this week, James Taillon was beginning to look interesting tonight, but the Cubs have the majority of their normal lineup out there tonight, including all of the key bats, making Taillon, who hasn’t thrown more than five innings or 95 pitches in any of his last three starts a bit less appealing. He does have nearly immaculate control though (3.5 BB%) and considering that the Cubs draw much of their value from a double digit walk rate, players still might want to consider him in a favorable park. He has thrown at least 85 pitches in two of his last three starts and costs less than $8K. There’s not a lot of interest in high priced Chicago bats here, projected for just over four runs, especially with a potential risk of not playing the entire game as the team just tries to stay healthy this week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Red Sox draw elite matchup against Bryan Mitchell at Yankee Stadium
We have a relatively small sample size on Bryan Mitchell, but he looks to be a low strikeout, ground ball pitcher to right-handed batters (52.9%), and a higher strikeout, but lower ground ball pitcher to left-handed batters (45.0%). We’ll be looking for home runs from David Ortiz (178 wRC+, .442 wOBA, .359 ISO vs RHP) and Jackie Bradley (137 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .268 ISO vs RHP) tonight, with Ortiz being a top cash game and tournament option with his elite skills against right-handed pitching in general. We should reserve the right-handed Boston bats for a tournament stack, though of course Mookie Betts (142 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .209 ISO vs RHP) is nearly always in play anytime, anywhere. We’d definitely prefer to focus on the lefties as one offs. Andrew Benintendi (176 wRC+, .440 wOBA, .261 ISO vs RHP) is still too cheap on DraftKings, but is relegated to tournament-only use given his spot in the batting order.
Other tagged players: Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Bryan Mitchell Nationals still missing half their lineup in a great spot against Shelby Miller
The Nationals have posted a lineup that disappoints daily fantasy players against Shelby Miller (6.47 ERA, 5.21 SIERA, 14.7 K%), but not one that should surprise us as the middle of this order has been decimated by injuries down the stretch. It’s a sad state of affairs when you’re at least hoping for Stephen Drew as a salary saver at SS and are then disappointed by his absence tonight. Trea Turner (156 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top bat, but probably too expensive here. Miller hasn’t been as poor vs RHBs (.325 wOBA). Lefties have hammered him however (.410 wOBA, 38.6 Hard%), so perhaps Brian Goodwin (111 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP) with a 176 wRC+ over the last week is your punt Outfielder for less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Shelby Miller Adam Morgan has a double digit SwStr% in four of last five starts, gets park bump against low power Braves
Adam Morgan struck out eight of 22 Mets in his last start and has now had a double digit SwStr% in four of his last five starts. His main concern and a very legitimate one is a 34.6 Hard% and 0.99 GB/FB in a power friendly park. He’s allowed 22 HRs in just 108 innings. He’s facing an Atlanta team with probably more power than their 7.3 HR/FB at home and 7.2 HR/FB vs LHP with the addition of Matt Kemp, but certainly still a well below average offense in terms of power in a park that suppresses it. This makes it a matchup that uniquely suits Morgan’s skillset as it may be able to hide his weaknesses and the Braves do strike out 21% of the time vs LHP. Without a lot of confidence in the top of the board tonight, players might consider dropping way down in price for a matchup that’s a good fit for this pitcher. Alternatively, the middle of this order has hit LHP well. Matt Kemp (141 wRC+, .291 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $3.3K on FanDuel. Tyler Flowers (110 wRC+, .148 ISO vs LHP this season) has a 183 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard% over the last week and makes for a decent value play at a tough position for less than $3.5K on either site, batting fifth. Freddie Freeman (142 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP this season) has been impressive against pitchers from both sides and is red hot (297 wRC+ last seven days), but costs quite a bit against a pitcher who has handled LHBs well (.293 wOBA, 21.9 Hard%).
Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Freddie Freeman, Tyler Flowers Sonny Gray starting tonight, but very limited workload
While Sonny Gray is technically the Oakland starting pitcher tonight, he’s not expected to pitch more than two innings and is therefore not a relevant fantasy option. Ross Detwiler while likely take over on the mound after Gray departs.
As reported by: Susan Slusser Other tagged players: Ross Detwiler
Albert Pujols OUT vs Daniel Mengden, who has struck out 19 of last 71 batters
Daniel Mengden has struck out 19 of his last 71 batters, but with just a 9.2 SwStr%, so it might be a mistake to jump on board here, especially facing the Angels (16.4 K% vs RHP). While batters from both sides have a wOBA just below .340 against him, the Angels stack up almost entirely right-handed, but unfortunately that comes more from a high walk rate than a lot of hard contact (29.7%). Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the best hitter in baseball and playable generally any night players can afford him. Kole Calhoun (111 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is too cheap on DraftKings ($3.2K).
Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Daniel Mengden Both LHBs and RHBs have a hard hit rate above 39% against Paul Clemens
Paul Clemens has allowed a hard hit rate above 39% to batters from either side this season, though RHBs (.412 wOBA) have actually had much more success than LHBs (.305 wOBA). He has just an 11.8 K% with a 21.3 HR/FB vs RHBs, while LHBs have struck out 22.5% of the time against Clemens with just a 9.4 HR/FB, but a 14.4 BB%. Either way, he has an ERA above four with estimators above five in a pitcher’s park. Let’s side with the Dodgers here with Justin Turner (150 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since 2015) one of the top Third Base bats on the board. GPP players could consider Joc Pederson (135 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for just $3.3K on FanDuel. He has a 292 wRC+ over the last week, as does Yasmani Grandal (119 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2015), perhaps tonight’s top bat behind the plate.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal