DFS Alerts

Bruce OUT, Rivera & Conforto remain IN Mets lineup against Aaron Blair

Aaron Blair has a 1.2 K-BB% in 54.2 major league innings. He struck out more batters in the AAA, but didn’t walk many fewer. LHBs have a .439 wOBA and 32.3 Hard%, while RHBs have not hit the ball as hard, but still have a .357 wOBA against a pitcher who has had issues finding the plate in the majors. This is a pitcher players can look to attack tonight with several Mets bats tonight. The resurgent Curtis Granderson (133 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Asdrubal Cabrera (109 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP since 2015). Cespedes (139 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015) could be considered among them as well, but has struggled recently (53 wRC+ last seven days) and left yesterday’s game with “dizzyness and nausea”. This could be a great spot for players looking to save cost though, with T.J. Rivera (177 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) below $3K and Michael Conforto (125 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP career) less than $3.5K on either site, including the minimum on FanDuel.

Porcello aims to shut down this Baltimore offense for a second straight start

Rick Porcello has been a consistent pitcher for the Red Sox all season long, allowing more than three earned runs in a start just once since June 23rd. That is a pretty amazing stretch of 15 starts, and he consistently goes low-owned in daily fantasy contests. It’s difficult to justify paying up for a pitcher with a 20.8% strikeout rate, but Porcello doesn’t beat himself. His walk rate (3.6%) is one of the best in the league, and he always pitches deep into games. That gives him a nice floor for cash game play, though it’s tough to trust him against a Baltimore squad that hits right-handed pitching very well. Porcello allows a bit too much hard contact (31.1%) for a pitcher that lacks true strikeout stuff, and his 3.80 SIERA and 3.89 xFIP aren’t exactly elite. Porcello is in play tonight, but by no means, one we can feel comfortable about. However, we need to respect him enough to where we will avoid the Baltimore offense in this matchup.

David Ortiz has a 178 wRC+ and .359 ISO vs RHP in his last season

Dylan Bundy hasn’t been bad this season, but his ERA is being held down a bit by an 80% strand rate and he may be in the worst spot on the board outside of Coors tonight, hosting the Red Sox (107 wRC+ at home, 116 wRC+ vs RHP, 125 wRC+ last seven days). He’s actually had a bit of an issue throwing strikes to RHBs, explaining their higher .342 wOBA against him this season in comparison to .319 for LHBs despite a rate of hard contact below 30% for both. David Ortiz (178 wRC+, .359 ISO vs RHP this season) may still be tonight’s top overall bat. Perhaps the hottest bat in the majors is Hanley Ramirez (315 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days), who now has a 113 wRC+ and .192 ISO vs RHP this season. He may only be a reasonable pivot from Ortiz on FanDuel for a much lower cost. While many of the Boston bats grade well here, they may be cost prohibitive, especially with several extremely expensive arms on the board. GPP players looking for a punt Outfielder with upside could consider Andrew Benintendi (159 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP) in the ninth spot for just $2.9K on DraftKings.

Ozuna (2nd) & Stanton (5th) flip spots at home against extreme fly baller A.J. Cole

A.J. Cole has an 18.0 K-BB% and 22.5 Hard% through five starts (28.2 IP), so why in the world does he have a 4.71 ERA with an xFIP and FIP approaching five? No qualified pitcher has a fly ball rate above 50%. His is 57.5%. The good news is that while none of what he’s been doing is likely to be sustained to such extremes, there’s been more good than bad and he’s in a favorable park for a fly ball pitcher in Miami tonight. The Marllins do have all of their power bats back and “scattered” through the lineup. Let’s just say that Don Mattingly’s lineup construction seems to do favors for opposing pitchers, like batting Martin Prado (88 wRC+, .098 ISO vs RHP this season) third and Justin Bour (125 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this season) sixth. The Marlins haven’t hit for a lot of power in this park even with a full lineup (9.2 H/FB at home). While the middle three batters in the order all have an ISO above .200 vs RHP this season. The rest of the lineup is well below average, aside from Ozuna, who is just average (97 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP this season). While Yelich (145 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP this season) and Bour both have quite a bit of value for less than $3K on FanDuel against a pitcher who has allowed a .349 wOBA to LHBs since last season, Cole is a very reasonable alternative or compliment to the elite arms tonight at a very reasonable price in a favorable spot.

Jose Altuve tops the long list of Astros worth playing today

Ariel Miranda has fared better against LHBs this year, struggling versus RHBs, illustrated by his 5.37 xFIP against righties on the year. Every southpaw with a 16% strikeout rate versus righties is going to have rough outings from time to time, and Miranda’s 1.60 HR/9 is evidence that he is capable of giving up the longball. The Astros have no shortage of RHB who are capable of hitting lefties, starting with Jose Altuve. Altuve is the epitome of consistency, striking out an elite 14% of the time on the season in at-bats versus lefties. A 0.203 ISO against lefties puts the Astros cleanup man in the top tier with Jean Segura at the keystone position. George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Evan Gattis round out the Astros worth stacking today.

Through limited innings, RHBs are getting the best of Jose De Leon

In limited inning, Jose De Leon is giving up hard contact to RHBs, allowing 40% hard contact on at-bats that have ended in contact. This would not be the end of the world if he were not also giving up 44% flyball rate. Jean Segura’s 13% k-rate over the last week is a testament to how locked-in Segura is at the plate right now. Segura has a 130 wRC+ over the last seven days and a silly-good ISO of 0.293. For a leadoff man, Segura, much like Charlie Blackmon, offers immense upside with power and stolen base potential. Beginning a cash game lineup with Segura is a solid strategy, considering Segura’s high floor and ceiling.

Coors Field features contact picture Jarred Cosart

On the season, Jarred Cosart has strikeout rates below 16% versus both LHBs and RHBs. Generally, pitching to contact in Colorado is a bad strategy, especially if you are a right-handed pitcher who will face the likes of Charlie Blackmon. Blackmon is always a dual threat for power and stolen bases, holding an ISO of 0.278 against righties this year which feels unfair given his 7.0 speed on FanGraphs. Over the last week, Blackmon is whiffing only 17% of the time and should have upside regardless of the game situation. He can steal a base in a close game and swing freely in a slugfest, making him an elite option at the leadoff position.

3 Reasons to stack Athletics

Reason #1: Colby Lewis is one game removed from the disabled list, so an off-game would not be beyond the realm of possibility. Even when Lewis was healthy, he relied on his defense to get him through games, holding a 14% k-rate against LHBs this year. Reason #2: Ryon Healy, Yonder Alonso, and Joey Wendle all have wRC+ totals north of 140 over the last week, as the Athletics have saved the best for last this season. Reason #3: Globe Life Park in Arlington is not as favorable of a matchup as it once was, but a 1.01 RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors rating for RHB home run power is still an environment worth targeting. With the Texas heat still in full force, do not be surprised if the top half of the scoreboard is littered with crooked numbers today.

Take him out of your lineup

The White Sox look to take advantage of Duffy's hard contact allowed, starting with Melky Cabrera

Danny Duffy has been pitching well over the last couple of weeks, holding a SIERA of 2.82. Still, his hard contact allowed on at-bats that end in contact of 38% indicate that when batters are making contact, they are squaring it up. Look to Melky Cabrera and Tim Anderson to get quality at-bats in today, considering they hold wRC+ totals versus lefties this year of 132 and 131, respectively. Melky Cabrera, in particular, is a high floor play, seeing that he has a k-rate of 13% on the year versus southpaws. His 0.182 ISO versus lefties this year is surprisingly high, making Melky an under-the-radar OF play today in Kansas City.

Keeping it simple: Miley + Rays = Stack Rays RHBs

Part 1: Wade Miley has always been capable of giving up the longball to RHBs and this year has been no different, seeing that he has a 1.66 HR/9 on the year. Miley’s strikeout rate of 17% versus RHB means that many of the Rays should have a fair shot at putting the ball in play. Part 2: Any of the Rays RHBs are in play, but two Rays, in particular, have ISOs over 0.200 against southpaws. One is a household name, Evan Longoria, while the other is probably only known by DFSers. Luke Maile is the Rays catcher today, and he holds a ridiculous 0.250 ISO versus LHP in 2016, making him a candidate to be a part of a Rays wraparound stack.

Alec Asher has pitched to contact in his limited innings this year, making Justin Bour an interesting play at 1B

Alec Asher has pitched to contact in his limited work this year, holding identical k-rates of 9% versus LHB and RHB. With young pitchers, it is hard to predict when they will bring their best stuff and silence an offense completely, but stacking against any pitcher who is throwing to contact is rarely a bad strategy. Speaking of contact, the Marlins have four batters who have k-rates equal to or below 10% over the last week, including Martin Prado, Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich, and Marcell Ozuna. Look to Justin Bour in particular for power, considering he has an elite 0.254 ISO versus righties on the year.

Kevin Roth has one YELLOW/ORANGE game on the slate today

Kevin Roth’s weather report is out and he has one game with a rating worse than YELLOW in Atlanta. The Nats-Braves game has a YELLOW/ORANGE rating due to potential storms upstream that could affect the later innings of the game. Check out Roth’s full report for details.

3 Reasons to play Gregory Polanco

Reason #1: Gregory Polanco is a bat to take advantage of when he is seeing the ball well and he is in the zone right now. A 17% strikeout rate of 17% over the last 7 days is elite and shows how well Polanco is seeing the ball lately. Reason#2: For homeruns to happen, the ball has to be in the air, and Polanco has been elevating the ball in half of his at-bats that have ended in contact over the last week. Reason #3: Dan Straily has failed to hold down LHB this year, possessing an xFIP of 5.61 versus lefties this year.

Mike Napoli is always in play against average southpaws

Daniel Norris has had significant splits this year, holding an elite xFIP of 3.38 versus lefties, but a 4.38 xFIP against the right-handed batters. Mike Napoli is the quintessential lefty-smasher and is hitting the ball plenty hard over the last seven days, holding a hard contact percentage of 36% over that period. Homeruns are the product of flyballs and Napoli has been getting the ball in the air in 64% of at-bats ending in contact. A 40% strikeout rate makes him a high-risk/high/reward option at 1B, offering a 0.208 ISO versus lefties this season.