DFS Alerts
Goldschmidt OUT of the Arizona lineup, putting Clayton Richard more in play
Clayton Richard has been a pleasant surprise for the Padres. He has allowed hard contact just 25.1% of the time this season and has amassed a 3.00 ERA despite mediocre strikeout/walk splits (6.5% K-BB%) and a limited ceiling. His 4.03 SIERA is over a run higher than that ERA, but he continues to somehow get the job done. There is some merit to considering him at a favorable price point on both major sites, but the Diamondbacks are quietly the best team in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching. Jean Segura (.168 ISO vs LHP has been crushing the ball lately, while Welington Castillo (130 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .259 ISO vs LHP) and Yasmany Tomas (178 wRC+, .447 wOBA, .325 ISO) always have home run potential against a lefty. We will likely want to stay away from Richard here, though he is in play if desperately needing the value to pay for hitting.
Other tagged players: Welington Castillo, Jean Segura, Clayton Richard
Jharel Cotton has excelled at AAA this season, but has not pitched well through two starts
Jharel Cotton has a 1.50 ERA that is contradicted by a putrid 5.88 SIERA, and I don’t think I have ever seen splits that stark. Of course, we are only dealing with a two start sample size here. Cotton exhibited elite strikeout ability in the minors, with a 29.5% strikeout rate at AAA this season. The bad part is that he had an ERA approaching 5.00 in the minors this year. This start can realistically go one of two ways; Cotton could get lit up by the power bats in the Astros order, or he could rack up some strikeouts. He makes sense as a boom-or-bust tournament option, but we should stay away in cash games. On a similar note, we can also consider some of the Houston power bats in tournament lineups. Yuli Gurriel (142 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .189 ISO vs RHP) remains an elite value option on DraftKings at just $2.9K, and he is in play for all formats. Jose Altuve (154 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .211 ISO vs RHP), Carlos Correa (129 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .196 ISO vs RHP), and George Springer (.171 ISO vs RHP) are the Houston hitters to target given their potential ability to take advantage of any pitcher, let alone one as inexperienced as Cotton.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Jharel Cotton Madison Bumgarner has struggled a bit of late, but the Dodgers have the lowest wRC+ (73) vs LHP
Madison Bumgarner has allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts, going more than six innings twice, including a rough start the last time he traveled to face these Dodgers about a month ago. It’s a bit surprising as the Dodgers are tied with the Phillies (another place Bumgarner struggled) for the lowest wRC+ (73) in baseball against LHP. While the track record strongly suggests that Bumgarner’s 21.5 K-BB% will prevail, his home park may be hiding the fact that he’s allowing more hard contact (31.2%) more often in the air (0.97 GB/FB) this season, that has made him occasionally more vulnerable in less friendly parks. Dodger Stadium is still a negative run environment, though not so much for power. Bumgarner still has one of the highest upsides on the board and is projected to be one of the top three arms tonight, well removed from the rest of the pack. BvP champion Kike Hernandez (104 wRC+, .204 ISO vs LHP this season) has three career HRs and seven extra-base hits against Bumgarner in just 19 PAs with a 99.1 mph aEV on 13 batted balls. Unfortunately, he costs more than $200 on FanDuel tonight, but is still below $3K on either site.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Enrique Hernandez
Clayton Kershaw has struck out 10 of 31 batters since returning, 18 of 58 Giants this year
Clayton Kershaw has struck out 10 of 31 batters without a walk in two starts since returning a two and a half month absence with a back issue. While he’s thrown less than 70 pitches in each of his last two starts, he came back out after a long rain delay in his most recent one, during which he threw a simulated innings, driving up his pitch count closer to 80. While the Dodgers have a comfortable division lead and probably can’t improve their post-season spot much with just two weeks to go, they probably want to finish off the Giants and lock up the division, while getting Kershaw ready to throw 120 pitches in two weeks. If we’re guessing 90 pitches tonight, that gets an efficient pitcher through six innings and maybe more if you’re the best pitcher on the planet. He’s struck out 18 of 58 Giants this season, going exactly eight innings in each of his starts against them. Believe it or not, $12.5K and $10.6K actually represent a reduced cost for Kershaw, who is probably the only pitcher in baseball we may be able to trust to cover those price points in under 100 pitches. Kershaw is a slight risk due to an inability to confidently predict his workload, but still has the highest upside on the board.
Kevin Roth's MLB weather forecast has been updated
Kevin’s late forecast brings us a few low concern areas in Chicago (vs Cincinnati) and, of all places, San Diego (vs Arizona), but nothing that seems risky enough to move players off of any arms or bats you may like. Read the full report on our Weather Page and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Braden Shipley continues to struggle, registering just one quality start in his last six outings
Braden Shipley has not been good for the Diamondbacks this season, to put it mildly. He carries an ugly 5.56 ERA, a 5.33 SIERA, and a 38.4% hard hit rate allowed through 55 major league innings. He obviously isn’t quite ready to face major league hitters yet. His strikeout rate is just 13.0%. We clearly can’t consider him as an option, even against a Padres team that has been striking out with reckless abandon in recent weeks. In fact, this is probably going to be the best spot for the Padres offense for the rest of the season. Shipley is relatively splits-neutral, allowing a higher wOBA (.415) and more hard contact to right-handed batters (40.6%) despite having a much better ground ball rate versus right-handed batters (52.1%) Feel free to fire up any of the Padres bats tonight, though Ryan Schimpf (139 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .333 ISO vs RHP), Wil Myers (.193 ISO vs RHP), Adam Rosales (.269 ISO vs RHP), and Alex Dickerson (.207 ISO vs RHP) provide the most upside versus right-handed pitching. This might be the last chance to consider the Padres as a viable tournament stack for the rest of the year. Use them well.
Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Adam Rosales, Corey Dickerson Carlos Martinez enters Coors with an unstable strikeout rate last several starts
Carlos Martinez has the same high strand rate (78.5%) and low 10.8 HR/FB as last year, but also BABIP 35 points lower than last year contributing to a 3.15 ERA, though his 12.4 K-BB% is 3.6 points below last year. His strikeout rate has been all over the place over the last month. He struck out 13 Brewers, then just one Brewer two starts later, followed by nine Cubs in his last start. He does keep the ball on the ground the fifth most often in baseball (55.8%), but is in the worst spot on the board by far in Colorado at cost still above $8K with the Rockies projected for 5.3 runs. To even consider him, we’d have to be more confident about the strikeout rate. While the top Colorado bats still project well, Blackmon (137 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP this season), Gonzalez (120 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP this season), Arenado (131 wRC+, .295 ISO vs RHP this season) and Dahl (117 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP this season) are all quite expensive against a good pitcher has kept RHBs on the ground 60% of the time this season. LHBs, however, do have a .330 wOBA against him with a 33.3 Hard% with 11 of his 14 HRs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl, Carlos Martinez Khris Davis has a 303 wRC+ over the last week with 14 HRs vs RHP at home this season
Brad Peacock has allowed just a single run in each of his two starts, one which lasted just 3.2 innings. His 11.9 K-BB% isn’t bad, mostly in relief, but it is well above his 8.8 career K-BB% in just under 250 innings, though it seems he’s been around forever. He’s in a nice run prevention spot in Oakland (83 wRC+, 27.5 Hard%, 8.9 HR/FB at home), but a low strikeout one (18.2 K% at home, 18.8 K% vs RHP) against one of the hottest offenses on the board (153 wRC+ over the last week). Projected for just over four runs, this might be a spot without a lot of daily fantasy appeal. LHBs do have a .358 wOBA against him though, giving leadoff man Joey Wendle (99 wRC+) some value for $2.7K or less. RHBs have a .313 wOBA against Peacock in his career, but Khris Davis (124 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is red hot (303 wRC+, .68.4 Hard% last seven days) and hits RHP well in any park (14 of his 40 HRs at home vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Brad Peacock, Joey Wendle Martin Perez and his 1.9% K-BB% provide an excellent matchup for Angels RHB
Martin Perez and his 12.3% strikeout rate will be on the mound as the Rangers are set to take the Angels tonight, and the only positive thing about Perez is that he has a 52.9% ground ball rate. This allows Perez to get out of some self-created jams and makes it hard to stack against him. He is very good against left-handed batters, but he has allowed a 32.9% hard hit rate and a .337 wOBA to right-handed batters, while his ground ball rate dips by just a few percentage points. Don’t sleep on Yunel Escobar (136 wRC+, .368 wOBA vs LHP), Mike Trout (149 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .178 ISO vs LHP), Albert Pujols (132 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .258 ISO vs LHP), Jefry Marte (130 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .235 ISO) and C.J. Cron (.155 ISO vs LHP) as a sneaky little stack on the other side of this high total game.
Other tagged players: Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, Jefry Marte, C.J. Cron, Martin Perez Tyler Anderson has a 14.7 K-BB% and 52.2 GB% at Coors
Tyler Anderson did allow six runs (five earned) in his last start in Arizona, but still struck out seven. He has been able to sustain a healthy 14.7 K-BB% and 52.2 GB% with a hard hit rate just below 30% at home this season, which nearly makes him Cy Young material in that park. Though the Cardinals have a 107 wRC+ and 15.7 HR/FB on the road, they strike out more than average (22.1% on the road), are below average vs LHP (96 wRC+) and have just a 47 wRC+ with a 24.5 K% over the last week. Yet they are currently projected for the third highest run total on the board (5.6). That’s actually not very high for Coors and they are going from one extreme (San Francisco) to another. Tyler Anderson may not even be a bad choice tonight for below $7K, but is he necessary on this board? Piscotty (161 wRC+, .249 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Diaz (100 wRC+, .156 ISO vs LHP) are probably the top bats with RHBs (.328 wOBA) having a significant advantage on LHBs (.260 wOBA) against Anderson. Both are fairly expensive, but not over-priced for Coors.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Aledmys Diaz LHBs have rocked Jhoulys Chacin for a .355 wOBA and 37.4 Hard% since 2015
Jhoulys Chacin struck out five of 21 Mariners in a spot start last week and gets another shot in Texas tonight. He has occasionally impressed in a starting role at times, but it rarely sustains for more than a couple of starts. He has just a 9.6 K-BB% on the season. LHBs have rocked him for a .355 wOBA and 37.4 Hard% since last season. Although the Rangers have just a 98 wRC+ vs RHP this season, it’s a great run environment and players can look to all four LHBs in this lineup, all with a wRC+ between 108 and 120 against RHP since last year with an ISO between .183 and .234. While Carlos Beltran (120 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might be the best overall bat among the bunch, Mitch Moreland (113 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be the most cost effective at $3.2K or less on either site. This is a lineup currently projected for 5.8 runs, second highest on the board despite just average numbers against RHP.
Other tagged players: Mitch Moreland, Jhoulys Chacin Jason Hammel has a 5.09 xFIP and 8.9% K-BB% versus LHB this season
It may be time to be a bit worried about Jason Hammel. It has been more than a month since he has gone more than six innings in a start, and he has had games where he has allowed six, eight, and four runs in less than six innings during that stretch. Something seems out of whack, though his velocity hasn’t dropped off. His overall pitching profile is still average at best, with a 32.9%% hard hit rate allowed, a 4.29 SIERA, and a 20.9% strikeout rate. He has allowed a .350 wOBA to left-handed batters this season compared to just .284 for right-handed batters, and his profile supports those splits with a lower ground ball rate (39.6%) and higher hard hit rate against lefties (33.7%). If wanting to be a little contrarian tonight, don’t hesitate to take a look at Joey Votto (164 wRC+, .422 wOBA, .246 ISO vs RHP), Scott Schebler (.170 ISO vs RHP), and Hernan Iribarren, who has had success against left-handed pitching thus far in limited opportunities. We can safely avoid playing Hammel until we see some sort of positive signs from him.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Scott Schebler, Hernan Iribarren, Jason Hammel Cubs tie for top run projection (5.8) vs Adleman with a game at Coors on the board
Tim Adleman has an ERA over four that probably should be above five if not for a .255 BABIP and 82.7 LOB%. LHBs have a .391 wOBA against him, but RHBs have a 35.4 Hard%. The Cubs have a 5.8 run projection that ties them for tops on the slate and that’s with a game at Coors on the board. This is an entirely stackable lineup….if players can afford to do so. Bryant (143 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP career) and Rizzo (151 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top overall bats, to the surprise of nobody. Willson Contreras (104 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP) and Addison Russell (98 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are more affordable bats at more difficult positions.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, Tim Adleman, Willson Contreras Harper & Murphy OUT against the returning Wei-Yin Chen
The Nationals are basically on cruise control rolling into the post-season in a couple of weeks and take this opportunity to rest Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy against the returning lefty Wei-Yin Chen, who hasn’t thrown a recorded major league or minor league pitch in professional competition in two months. RHBs have a .345 wOBA and 32.8 Hard% against him since last season, but the issue we have here is bullpen matchups likely after just a few innings. While Trea Turner (101 wRC+ vs LHP) still seems like a reasonable option with a 272 wRC+ over the last week, he’s one of the most expensive bats on the board in a spot and Chen will be a tough pitcher to run on while he’s in there. Werth (176 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Ramos (143 wRC+, .292 ISO) have hammered LHP this season and both cost below $4K on either site, but the value appeal in this lineup might disappear after that.
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Wei-Yin Chen, Wilson Ramos Braves own the lowest implied run total (2.5) on Monday's slate
If rostering pitchers against the Braves the last few weeks, chances are that has ended in complete frustration more often than not. Atlanta has hit a surge in the second half of the season and remain one of the hardest teams for right-handed pitchers to strike out (19.2% K%). Despite residing in the same division, Noah Syndergaard somehow is facing the Braves for the first time all season. This is a hugely important game for the Mets, so they should let Syndergaard pitch deep into the game, and he has not allowed more than two runs in a start in nearly a month and a half. The Mets are massive favorites here, and Syndergaard is certainly in play for all formats. We’ll need to limit our lofty expectations to some extent, but Syndergaard feels like a very safe option tonight given the matchup.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines