DFS Alerts
James Paxton faces an Astros team that does less well against LHP than you would think
James Paxton will face off against a boom or bust offense today, with the boom apparent in the 0.182 ISO the team has displayed against LHPs. Still, the Astros 23% k-rate against southpaws is indicative of how susceptible they can be to the strikeout. In recent starts, Paxton has done a better job of limiting his flyballs allowed, allowing a flyball percentage under 30% over the last weeks. Over the last seven days, the Astros have epitomized the boom/bust paradigm, holding a team ISO of 0.174, but striking out 24% of the time. If one of the Astros big bats gets ahold of one with runners on base, it could ruin Paxton’s night, but the upside for Ks will still be there in a park rated as 0.93 for RHB home run power by the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool. Paxton has displayed odd splits this year, holding an xFIP of 5.09 versus LHBs, but these splits should not hurt him much tonight, considering the Astros do not have a LHB with a wRC+ north of 100 against LHP.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors
GPP Strategy of the Night: Stack Pirates
Verlander is not the only pitcher throwing today who has been striking out batters at an impressive rate, while still struggling with the longball. Brandon Finnegan has a 28% k-rate over the last two weeks but has given up a generous 1.80 HR/9. It does not appear to be a fluke, since Finnegan has been letting hitters get the ball in the air, allowing a 54% flyball rate. Finnegan has surrendered more home runs to RHBs, allowing a HR/9 of 1.93 to righties on the year and will be pitching at Great American Ball Park. Great American Ball Park is an above average ballpark for RHB power according to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool, 1.11 for RHB home runs. Pittsburgh could have a giant night if Finnegan continues to allow fly balls at a high rate.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: Jung-Ho Kang Ryan Howard scratched, Tommy Joseph starting in his place
Howard is out and Joseph will replace him.
Corey Seager and Josh Reddick make for a solid two-man stack versus Shelby Miller tonight
Shelby Miller is facing off against a Dodgers team littered with left-handed hitters who pose an above average chance of making Shelby pay for his hard contact allowed in recent outings. Miller has allowed 38% hard contact on at-bats ending in contact over the last couple of weeks and holds a 5.56 xFIP versus LHBs on the season. The four Dodgers bats who have been hitting the ball hardest over the last week have also been killing worms, each possessing a groundball rate of at least 47% over that period. Corey Seager and Josh Reddick can at least boast solid contact over that period, both whiffing less than 17% of the time over the last seven days.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Shelby Miller Yu Darvish could find success tonight if he avoids making any mistakes versus Khris Davis
Yu Darvish has all the peripherals a DFS player would want to see in a pitcher’s recent performance. Darvish has allowed a minuscule 3% line drive rate over the last 14 days, and an elite 21% hard contact allowed percentage. His 28% strikeout rate is slightly above average, but he will face an A’s team that is coming off of two big games in the last three nights, scoring 14 and 8 runs. Darvish will be glad to miss facing Coco Crisp, who has owned him over the years, holding a 1.042 OPS against the Rangers’ ace. In sample sizes too small to be taken seriously, Khris Davis and Danny Valencia have also fared well against Darvish, posting OPS totals of 1.700 and 1.286 respectively. Davis, in particular, is in a good way right now, making hard contact almost 50% of the time in at-bats ending in contact and striking out less than 21% of the time over the last week. If Darvish can avoid the big mistake to Davis tonight, he could post a good line, but there is probably better matchups available tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Khris Davis The Padres side of the Coors Field game should be less popular tonight
Jon Gray has had success at home, holding an xFIP of 3.57 at home, compared to a slightly higher xFIP of 3.87 on the road. If this reputation keeps people away from the Padres tonight, look for a bat like Oswaldo Arcia to possibly go under-owned. The Padres lefty slugger has a hard contact rate over the last week of 45%. A Coors Field bump and a strikeout rate below 20% makes Arcia a sneaky play in a game that will most likely attract DFS players to Colorado bats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Matt Wieters is facing Matt Andriese tonight and should be an under-the-radar option at the catcher position
Matt Andriese is not a terrible pitcher, but he has proven to be hittable in recent starts. Andriese has a respectable 20% k rate over the last few weeks but is still surrendering a 39% flyball rate that could prove problematic in a small park like Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has a ridiculous 1.31 home run rating for LHBs on the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool, making every Oriole LHB interesting. While most DFS players may gravitate to Chris Davis, Matt Wieters may be the sharper play. Davis is striking out 38% of the time over the last week, while Wieters is crushing the ball (42% hard contact) and whiffing an elite 9% of the time over that same period.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Wieters 3 Reasons to play Eric Hosmer
Reason #1: Hosmer will face Miguel Gonzalez today, a pitcher who has a 15% k-rate over the last two weeks with a hard contact rate of 17%, epitomizing the way that Gonzalez finds success. While this great to see for White Sox fan, it is a dangerous way to live, evident by Gonalez’s 4.91 xFIP versus LHBs on the season. Reason #2: Eric Hosmer is scorching the ball in recent games, holding down a hard contact rate of 47% over the last week in at-bats that have ended in contact, along with an elite 0.261 ISO. Reason #3: While Kauffman Stadium is a poor environment for hitters, it is much worse for RHB than LHB. According to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool, Kauffman Stadium has a home run rating of 0.91 for LHB home run power. Hosmer has proven he can hit righties at home, possessing a higher wRC+ versus RHP of 127 at home, compared to 111 wRC+ against RHP on the road.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Miguel Gonzalez Justin Verlander could be in a sneaky-good matchup, but inclement weather makes him even more risky than normal
Justin Verlander continues to hold a unique line over the last few weeks. He has been allowing a large amount of hard contact, 41% over the last 14 days, which has led to a 2.25 HR/9 over that same period. Still, Verlander held a 2.80 SIERA over that two-week period, buoyed by a ridiculous 34% strikeout rate. On the season, Verlander has been better against lefties, holding a 3.63 xFIP on the season versus LHBs. This bodes well in what looks like a tough matchup on the surface since the Indians’ top 6 batters versus RHP by wRC+ will be batting from the left side today. Kevin Roth has given this game an ORANGE rating, so perhaps the risk of using Verlander at SP may be too great for anything other than large-field GPPs.
As reported by: FanGraphs Gio looks to continue his recent success today against the Braves
The early games today feature a couple of pitchers who have been in a good way lately. Gio Gonzalez has a 3.25 SIERA over the last fourteen days and a 26% hard contact allowed rate in at-bats ending in contact, indicating that Gio has had his best stuff in recent outings. Much like Taillon’s matchup, Gio will face a team with a poor wRC+ versus Gonzalez’s handedness, holding a team wRC+ total of 81 versus lefties this year. The Braves matchup is a juicy one for lefties, with the Braves’ top two performers versus lefties, Freeman and Flowers, still holding k-rates of at least 25% against southpaws.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jameson Taillon faces a week Reds lineup
Over the last couple of outings, Jameson Taillon has been sharp, holding a 3.31 SIERA and a 21% strikeout rate. Taillon will face a Reds team that is whiffing versus RHP 21% of the time and offers a meager 90 team wRC+ total versus righties on the year. This wRC+ of 90 was with contributions by Jay Bruce who is long gone, leaving hitters like Scott Schebler to try and fill his shoes. Schebler has a 0.23 ISO over the last two weeks and does not quite provide the same pop as his predecessor. Please note that there is a great deal or risk with this game, considering the Roth Report rated it as ORANGE.
As reported by: FanGraphs Roth's weather report includes an ORANGE rating for PIT-CIN (Gm1) and DET-CLE
Roth’s weather report highlights some ominous weather around the league today. The first game in Cincinnati and the game in Detroit are looking at likely delays. Check out the full report for details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Jered Weaver surrenders fly balls at a 51.8% clip to RHB, along with a 40.5% Hard%
Jered Weaver has the lowest ground ball rate in baseball (27.6%) and gives up a ton of hard-hit fly balls. Occasionally, he puts together a solid start when those fly balls find gloves instead of seats. It’s hard to stack against Weaver because teams rarely string hits together, but you will almost certainly see a few home runs from the Blue Jays here. Their power bats are great one-off plays in this spot, and we can take a chance on a couple of them in tournaments hoping to pick-and-choose the home runs correctly. Josh Donaldson (154 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .273 ISO vs RHP) returned from injury last night and was locked in, so feel free to fire him up as normal. The Blue Jays have power up and down the lineup, but Edwin Encarnacion (137 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .276 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Bautista (118 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .208 ISO vs RHP) are the most likely candidates to jack a home run or two off of Weaver outside of Donaldson.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Jered Weaver
Luke Weaver (24.0 K-BB%) is in a low strikeout spot in San Francisco, but costs just $5.2K on DraftKings
Luke Weaver has a 24.0 K-BB% through six major league starts with a 3.48 ERA a bit above his estimators with five HRs allowed and a .325 BABIP, though his hard hit rate is just below 30%. A 9.9 SwStr% suggests a decline is immanent in his 30.2 K%, but he’s been above 11.5% in three of his last four starts, so perhaps it’s not going to be particularly steep. He also threw 101 pitches in his last start, easing concerns about a pitch count with the Cardinals fighting for a Wild Card. The Giants have just an 8.0 K-BB% vs RHP, but a lot of what he loses in strikeout rate, he might gain back in an extremely negative run environment (Giants 7.5 HR/FB at home, 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP). Even if we project something around a league average strikeout rate, Weaver should be the top value on DraftKings for just $5.2K, an excellent, and likely popular, compliment to one of the higher priced arms tonight. Our Projected Ownership page has him as the second most popular pitcher at just under 27%. He’s likely to have barely any ownership on FanDuel, for nearly $2K more, but it’s not an unwinnable game opposing Matt Moore. The Giants are projected to score just 3.9 runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership
Kevin has several games Yellow, including CWS@KC
Kevin has several games graded Yellow for a possible delay with the biggest concern for DFS players in Kansas City where the White Sox and Chris Sale pay a visit. He’s optimistic, but not positive this game plays without a delay. Read the full report on our Weather Page and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page