DFS Alerts
Jace Peterson scratched from the Braves lineup Friday
Peterson has been scratched from the lineup with a left ankle sprain for tonight’s home game against the Washington Nationals. Gordon Beckham will replace him at 2B and bat from the six-spot in the order. Given the matchup with Max Scherzer, this news has little to no effect on tonight’s MLB DFS slate.
As reported by: Atlanta Braves Verified Twitter Account Other tagged players: Gordon Beckham
Solarte scratched, Amarista bats eighth, Sardinas up to sixth
Yangervis Solarte has been scratched. Ryan Schimpf and Alex Dickerson move up a spot, Luis Sardinas bumps two spots and Alexi Amarista takes his place and bats eighth. For a San Diego offense already a bit questionable in a great spot in Colorado tonight, this removes one more bat who may have been playable here. It’s a small bump to the value of Schimpf and Dickerson.
Other tagged players: Ryan Schimpf, Alex Dickerson, Luis Sardinas, Alexi Amarista
Stanton to only play 6 or 7 innings
It’s rare to see a non-pitcher be on an innings count, but that appears to be the case with Giancarlo Stanton tonight. He does bat second in a great spot against a fly ball and hard contact prone LHP, which could get him an extra plate appearance, but players paying a high price need to know that he’s going to lose out on the last two or three innings too tonight.
As reported by: clark spencer Kenta Maeda (18.3 K-BB%) faces Arizona offense with an 89 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB% and 12.5 HR/FB vs RHP
Kenta Maeda brings an 18.3 K-BB% into an Arizona park that is much friendlier to RHPs, not because of the park, but the offense that resides in it. The Diamondbacks have an 89 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB% and lowered 12.5 HR/FB vs RHP this season, despite playing half their games in a great park. Maeda is one of a number of reasonable choices in his price range (just below $9K), though there are several better options available, worth paying a bit more for. The main drawback with him is that he’s failed to make it out of the sixth inning in 13 of his last 22 starts. He’s held RHBs to a .252 wOBA and 24.8 Hard% this season with LHBs more average against him (.299 wOBA, 32.4 Hard%), so the only bat that should draw much interest here is Jake Lamb (137 wRC+, .298 ISO vs RHP since 2015).
Other tagged players: Jake Lamb Rockies check-in with the highest implied run total on the slate (6.7), as expected in Coors
Christian Friedrich had the best came of his career in his last start at home against this same Rockies team with 10 strikeouts in seven scoreless innings. However, there is nothing in his stats or his peripherals to suggest that we could expect anything close to that again, even if this game weren’t at Coors Field. Friedrich has been pretty good against left-handed batters this season which could help neutralize the strong outfield hitters for the Rockies, but against right-handed batters, his 16.4% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and average batted ball trends are likely to get him into trouble with Nolan Arenado (109 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .239 ISO, vs LHP), D.J. LeMahieu (134 wRC+, .399 wOBA, .176 ISO vs LHP) and Nick Hundley (122 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .241 ISO vs LHP). Arenado is the top overall hitter of the night and is the first guy we should lock into our cash game lineup. There is plenty of merit to using Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez in tournament stacks in case this game gets out of hand early.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Nick Hundley, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Christian Friedrich Ian Kennedy has cut down on the HRs (five over last 10 starts), has a nice matchup with White Sox (89 wRC+)
Ian Kennedy generates so many fly balls (47.5%) that his league average HR rate (13.8 HR/FB) has still resulted in 31 bombs, though only five over his last 10 starts. He misses bats at an above average rate (23.3 K%) and is probably a reasonable alternative for $8.5K at home against a White Sox offense (89 wRC+ vs RHP) with below average power in a big park if you can’t afford the big boys. The White Sox are projected for just 3.7 runs, but he is facing a red hot Chris Sale, making it difficult to project him getting a Win.
Ubaldo Jimenez has a 3.41 ERA over the last month, but estimators remain around five
Ubaldo Jimenez has gotten better results over the last month (3.41 ERA), but his estimators (5.00 SIERA, 5.11 xFIP) are right in line with his season numbers. While his SwStr% has remained below average and his strikeout rate has actually declined to 15.6% over this span. LHBs have a .340 wOBA against him since last season (RHBs .323), though more due to an inability to throw strikes than hard contact (30.7% for LHBs, 27% for RHBs). Still, there may be a few LH Rays we can take advantage with in this park. Corey Dickerson (116 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bumps up to the five spot and has a 288 wRC+ over the last week. Brad Miller (121 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be a top SS play for just $3.2K on FanDuel. Considering Ubaldo’s frequent control issues, a speed guy like Kevin Kiermaier (107 wRC+, .175 ISO vs RHP since 2015) with some power, may even be worth a shot in the second spot.
Other tagged players: Brad Miller, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kevin Kiermaier John Gant has allowed a massive 39.4% Hard% this season
In a limited 43 innings sample size, John Gant has been pretty good and with above average strikeouts to both right and left-handed batters and a 3.92 SIERA, he doesn’t jump off the page as a pitcher to play against. However, it still is just 43 innings, with a lot of those coming out of the bullpen, and he has only reached six innings once all season. With the quality of the Washington lineup, it’s reasonable to expect their bats to be tough enough on Gant that we see no more than five innings, followed by a sketchy bullpen. Dainel Murphy (166 wRC+, .423 wOBA, .262 ISO vs RHP), Trea Turner (145 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .232 ISO vs RHP), Bryce Harper (122 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .198 ISO vs RHP) and Anthony Rendon (113 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .190 ISO vs RHP) are interesting as a tournament stack, though they have a mediocre implied run total compared to other offenses on the board tonight.
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, John Gant Chatwood doesn't offer much upside in a decent matchup at Coors, but does keep the ball on the ground
A Vegas projection of 5.4 runs is actually not very high for Coors and that’s not completely unexpected with the Padres in town (79 wRC+, 18.6 K-BB% on the road, 81 wRC+, 17.3 K-BB% vs RHP). Tyler Chatwood still does not offer enough upside (16.2 K%) to take any kind of risk in this park, but he does keep the ball on the ground at least 54% of the time against batters from either side with no worse than a league average rate of hard contact (31.5% vs RHBs). Padres bats still project fine in a great park tonight, but are perhaps not among the top values in baseball at elevated prices. The exception might be Ryan Schimpf (143 wRC+, .347 ISO vs RHP), who may be worth paying up for at Second Base. He still costs a reasonable $3.7K on FanDuel. Few other San Diego bats are much above average against RHP, though Alex Dickerson does check in with a .214 ISO against them this year and still costs a reasonable $4.3K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Tyler Chatwood, Alex Dickerson Bartolo Colon is surrendering 1.73 HR/9 to LHB this season
Bartolo Colon has two things going in his favor. One is being a huge home favorite and the second is his elite 4.3% walk rate. The problem is he just can’t strike anyone out (15.6% K%). The Twins are a good enough offense, ranking 12th in wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching, and are third in the league in runs scored since the All-Star Break, so it’s too much of a stretch to just hope they have a bad night when the upside isn’t there. Colon has allowed some home runs to left-handed batters with his 15.2% strikeout rate and 40.3% fly ball rate. Brian Dozier (135 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .278 ISO vs RHP) is absolutely in play for tournaments, as his fly ball ability and power is elite enough to outweigh the ground ball ability of Colon. Other than Dozier, it would be the left-handers to look to as one off power sources. Unfortunately, Max Kepler (.236 ISO vs RHP) is only real option with Kennys Vargas out of the lineup tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Bartolo Colon Archer is the high risk, high reward pitching option of the night
Chris Archer is almost never low-owned, as daily fantasy players gravitate toward his massive strikeout upside almost every time he takes the mound. His strikeout rate is up to 28.2% for the season, and he has been pitching extremely well in the second half. His SIERA sits at a solid 3.45 mark, while he has done much better with limiting the walks. Over his last six starts, he has tallied 49 strikeouts to just seven walks. This is a tough matchup against a Baltimore offense that has a lot of power and hits right-handed pitching well, but Archer has as much upside as anyone on the board when he is on his game. Archer is a great tournament option but carries too much volatility for cash games on all sites. It’s definitely encouraging that his recent starts have been trending in the right direction.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Chris Sale has a 29.3 K% with a 2.73 ERA since the start of August, going at least eight innings in six of eight starts
Chris Sale has a 29.3 K% with a 2.73 ERA since the start of August, going at least eight innings (and no less than 6.2) in six of eight starts. Though they homered twice with a 47.4 Hard%, Sale struck out 12 of these Royals in his last start, allowing nothing other than those two solo HRs. He’s struck out 19 of 61 Royals he’s faced this year. This is the Chris Sale we’ve waited most the season to see. He’s striking out a ton of batters, going deep into games and preventing runs. This is a nice spot for him against a Kansas City offense with just a 9.1 HR/FB at home. Sale rivals Max Scherzer as one of tonight’s top two overall arms at a slightly lesser cost. Strangely enough, Eric Hosmer has three career HRs against him (44 PAs), though Sale has dominated LHBs (.269 wOBA, 21.8 Hard%) since the start of last season.
Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer Freddie Freeman OUT against Max Scherzer
It’s not like Max Scherzer needs the help, but Freddie Freeman’s absence from an Atlanta offense that’s been one of the better ones in the league since the All-Start break gives him a bit of an added boost tonight. He struck out just five Braves two starts back, his third lowest total of the season. He did go seven innings with just two runs in that start, but owners were absolutely expecting more for the cost. We’re still looking at the second best strikeout rate in baseball and the only pitcher above a 15 SwStr%, so we have to expect much more here. He may not be the top value on the board at an enormous cost ($11K on FD, $13.7K on DK), but that may be more a reflection of some lower priced upside than an indictment on his skills. Without cost to consider, he’s no worse than tied with Sale for the top overall slot on the slate. The Braves had the lowest run projection on the slate (2.9) before the lineup came out.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Kluber has a 23.4% K-BB% versus RHB this season
In stark contrast to the matchup of Max Scherzer, we have Corey Kluber facing off against the Tigers powerful offense. In two starts against Detroit this season, Kluber has pitched 17 innings and has allowed just one run on seven total hits. Throw in a 17/2 K/BB ratio in those starts, and it’s safe to say that he’s been good against Detroit. Both of those starts came in April and May, so we are obviously dealing with different rosters now. Kluber has also been pitching well of late, and the Indians have won eight of his last nine starts. He has a solid 26.5% strikeout rate on the year to go along with a 3.05 ERA and 3.46 SIERA. His overall profile is a bit weaker than Scherzer’s and the matchup doesn’t look great on paper against Detroit, but the Indians will gladly let Kluber go deep into this game as they try to bury the Tigers in the AL Central race this weekend. Kluber should make for a nice pivot in tournaments as ownership naturally gravitates towards Scherzer due to matchup.
As reported by: FanGraphs RHBs have hammered Jose Berrios (.470 wOBA, 40.8 Hard%, seven HRs)
Jose Berrios is an amazingly talented arm (28.9 K% at AAA), who has missed bats at nearly a league average rate in the majors (19.0 K%, 9.0 SwStr%), but also sports a 12.7 BB% and 35.8 Hard%, walking at least four in five of his 11 starts with 10 HRs allowed. A patient Mets offense should be able to take advantage of him and it’s actually RHBs that have hit him much harder this season (.470 wOBA, 40.8 Hard%, seven HRs), which sets up perfectly for Yoenis Cespedes (140 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) as a strong OF play. A potentially interesting Third Base play, whom nobody is likely to be on is the RH T.J. Rivera (125 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP), who has a 213 wRC+ over the last week. He has a 142 wRC+ at AAA this season as well. Neither his nor Berrios’s sample against RHBs are large enough to draw significant conclusions from yet, but it’s something that has happened and is a reasonably cheap risk to take for around $2.5K on either site. The Mets are projected to score five runs tonight.
Other tagged players: T.J. Rivera, Jose Berrios