DFS Alerts
Red Sox have the highest implied run total on the slate
The Red Sox have the highest run total of the night outside of Coors Field. They are the best team in the majors against right-handed pitching and take on a young, inexperienced pitcher in Luis Cessa. We can obviously use anyone from the Red Sox tonight, and a full stack in tournaments is more than viable, but they will likely be highly owned. Xander Bogaerts is the best value of the Boston bats, while the usual suspects of David Ortiz and Mookie Betts provide the upside needed in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Luis Cessa
Giancarlo Stanton (169 wRC+, .390 ISO vs LHP since 2015) returns to bat second against fly ball prone lefty
Adam Morgan has been missing bats at a league average rate and generally pitching decently over the last month (3.64 ERA, 3.84 xFIP). At first glance, it doesn’t appear a bad spot (Marlins 93 wRC+, 22.6 K%, 10.7 HR/FB vs LHP) at a low cost, but there are some issues with his batted ball profile (0.96 GB/FB, 35.8 Hard%) in a small park and the Marlins have gotten some of their power back in that lineup, including Giancarlo Stanton (169 wRC+, .390 ISO vs LHP since last season) batting second tonight. With RHBs owning a .368 wOBA and 35.9 Hard% against Morgan in his career, all RHBs in this lineup project for some value beyond their price tags in a park that’s a boon to RH power. Marcell Ozuna (147 wRC+, .249 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Martin Prado (160 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP since 2015) have hit southpaws extremely well.
Other tagged players: Adam Morgan, Marcell Ozuna, Martin Prado
Ryan Vogelsong has a 6.90 ERA and 0.7 K-BB% over his last six starts
Ryan Vogelson has been lit up for a 6.90 ERA with estimators above six over his last six starts, though more due to poor peripherals (0.7 K-BB%) than hard contact (6.7 Hard-Soft%). Projected for 4.8 runs, a Reds stack is completely viable and a potential path to a higher priced arm tonight, but for optimal potency, players should consider two LHBs (.378 wOBA vs Vogelsong since last season). Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since 2015) registers as one of tonight’s top overall bat via the BAT projections. He’s one of few nearly guaranteed high floors among batters with tremendous on base skills, but his ceiling may be a bit more questionable refuses to throw strikes. Scott Schebler (103 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is your value play here for less than $3.5K. While not sure what a Steve Selsky is (27 year-old 2011 33rd round draft pick), but he had a 138 wRC+ at AAA this season and costs the minimum on FanDuel batting second.
Other tagged players: Scott Schebler, Ryan Vogelsong Blue Jays find themselves in a plus matchup, likely to fly under the radar due to park downgrade
Against Minor League right-handed hitters this year, Daniel Wright has allowed an .814 OPS. He has struck out only 18.4% of the Minor League righties he has faced, and he has allowed about one home run every 30 at bats. Of course, this ballpark is not ideal for home runs, but the Blue Jays come to town with their fly ball hitting tendencies and power. They are perfectly capable of putting up a big game in this spot. After dropping a game in the playoff chase yesterday, we should expect the Blue Jays to come out on a mission to score in this one. Wright is actually the perfect type of pitcher for them to face in this situation. It’s more than probable that the Toronto bats are able to bang a couple out of the park tonight, it’s just a matter of choosing the correct ones. The full stack is our best course of action in this scenario in order to soak up as much upside as possible. Josh Donaldson (150 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP), Edwin Encarnacion (139 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .279 ISO vs RHP), and Jose Bautista (.211 ISO vs RHP) are our top targets per usual.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Daniel Wright Kevin's late weather update is posted
Only one game worth a mention in Kevin’s late update. He believes the Oakland @ Kansas City game plays clean, but with a bit of uncertainty, he’s calling it YELLOW tonight. It’s doubtful that most players were on Mengden or Volquez, so daily fantasy impact should be minimal if there is a delay.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page The Angels have a 16.8 K% and 103 wRC+ vs LHP, but just a team 49 wRC+ over the last week
J.A. Happ looked like he had recaptured some of what propelled him to an extraordinary second half last season by increasing his fastball usage and actually generating more swings and misses with it. That hasn’t lasted, as he’s allowed six HRs over his last five starts with an ERA above five, but still has a 15.4 K-BB% over that span, so there’s some hope. The issue at hand tonight is that he’s facing an offense with a 16.8 K% vs LHP. They lean heavily RH with a 103 wRC+ vs LHP, but still display below average power against southpaws (10.8 HR/FB) and have a 49 wRC+ as a team over the last week. Happ could find some success in a favorable park against a struggling offense, but his strikeout upside likely isn’t very high, making him a more marginal choice for more than $8K on either site. Mike Trout (169 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the only bat worth considering for daily fantasy purposes in a lineup projected for just 3.7 runs, but he’s once again very costly.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout Adam Wainwright has an elevated price tag as a significant dog in a low strikeout matchup in San Francisco
Adam Wainwright has struck out seven in two of his last three starts, but both were against the Brewers. Tonight, he’s in a great park, but against a low strikeout offense (17.5 K% vs RHP, 7.0 K-BB% at home). It’s difficult to justify his cost on FanDuel at just below $9K in a game where he’s a significant dog against Cueto. That being said, the Giants are still projected for less than four runs and there’s not really a lot to like in a lineup of mostly league average hitters against RHP (six of eight batters with a wRC+ between 101 and 109 vs RHP this year, nobody with an ISO above .185) in a terrible run environment.
No lineup is projected within half a run of the Dodgers (5.6) against Archie Bradley
The Dodgers are projected for a slate high 5.6 runs tonight without another offense within half a run of them. LHBs have a .364 wOBA against Archie Bradley since last season and batters from either side have hit the ball hard over 37% of the time against him. This entire lineup projects strongly, even the returning Andre Ethier (146 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $2.3K on FanDuel. Corey Seager (164 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP career) might be the top overall bat on the slate. Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP since 2015), might be an affordable contrarian way to gain exposure to this lineup, but is a potent bat in the eighth spot. Justin Turner (151 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Yasmani Grandal (117 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top bats at their positions.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Archie Bradley, Yasmani Grandal, Andre Ethier, Justin Turner Cardinals own the lowest implied run total (3.2) on this abbreviated slate
Johnny Cueto does a great job of limiting hard contact (27.2%) and has a solid 2.90 ERA as a result, but it’s hard to pay his price tag for a pitcher with a 21.9% strikeout rate, especially in this matchup against a Cardinals squad that is generally pretty good against right-handed pitching. Cueto is a safe option for cash games, but he’s not a particularly exciting option. That being said, we will likely have to at least consider him in all formats, especially on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings, as there isn’t much available for pitching options tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Hill actually has a much higher K% to RHB (32.2%) than LHB (19.1%)
There is probably a large enough sample size now to believe that Rich Hill is actually this good. Though, it’s difficult to believe that he can sustain a 1.80 ERA, but his SIERA of 3.36 is nothing short of respectable. Neither is his 29.3% strikeout rate, which is by far the highest we will find on this slate. Targeting pitchers on the road in Arizona is something we try to avoid, especially since the Diamondbacks hit left-handed pitching extremely well and have had great offensive outputs the last two nights. Hill has the most upside of any pitcher on this slate, but there is a bit more downside risk to him than normal. Paul Goldschmidt (182 wRC+, .453 wOBA, .241 ISO vs LHP) and Yasmany Tomas (183 wRC+, .454 wOBA, .331 ISO vs LHP) are certainly viable as contrarian one off plays given their power upside against left-handed pitching.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas Mike Montgomery has the third highest K% on the board (22.4%) for half the price, facing the Brewers (24.9 K% vs LHP)
This matchup provides an interesting dilemma on a difficult slate. Mike Montgomery has walked a few too many batters (14.5%) and not gone more than five innings in any of his four starts for the Cubs, but his 22.4 K% matches his season mark and puts him third best on the board. The Brewers have been clobbering LHP (16.0 HR/FB, 11.7 BB%), but he just pitched very well against them in his last start (6 IP – 2 H – 1 R – 1 HR – 1 BB – 6 K – 17 BF) and they still strike out a quarter of the time against southpaws. He’s pitching many fewer innings that the top pitchers tonight, but you’re getting a mostly comparable strikeout rate at less than half the price (at least on DraftKIngs). Montgomery has to be considered a potential top value for just $4.7K on a site where you need two pitchers. In fact, the Brewers have the second lowest run projection tonight (3.4). However, they have six batters in this lineup with a 139 or better wRC+ and .188 or better ISO vs LHP this season and add Hernan Perez with a 97 wRC+ and .230 ISO. These bats still play and you could even consider Domingo Santana (158 wRC+, .246 ISO vs LHP this season) and Keon Broxton (139 wRC+, .188 ISO vs LHP this season) excellent values on FanDuel at $2.8K a pierce (Santana also costs just $3.9K on DraftKings). Chris Carter is more expensive, but has a .353 ISO vs LHP. Some exposure to both sides of this matchup is justifiable, especially for players making out multiple lineups. In fact, combining several strikeouts with a few solo HRs might allow players to win both ways.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Eduardo Rodriguez has just an 8.6 K-BB% over the last month with a .113 BABIP and 6.7 HR/FB
Eduardo Rodriguez has just an 8.6 K-BB% over the last month with a .113 BABIP and 6.7 HR/FB spanning 23.1 innings. He has done a great job limiting hard contact this season (4.1 Hard-Soft%) and has a 10.0 SwStr% that shows some potential for the future, but needs to be more consistently in the strike zone. The Yankees don’t have a single bat in the lineup with an above average wRC+ vs LHP since last season (Billy Butler may not be available on DFS sites tonight) and only Gary Sanchez (29 wRC+, .200 ISO), in few opportunities, has an ISO above .120. Never the less, this is an incredibly difficult park for LHPs, especially those with occasional control issues. With a run projection just above four, this a matchup that players could consider fading tonight.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Rodriguez Red Sox implied run total continues to decline, currently sitting at 4.4 runs
Most of the fantasy appeal of Masahiro Tanaka resides in his safety. That’s actually a valuable commodity on a slate such as this one, as there are not very many pitchers we typically like to trust. Tanaka generally fits the bill, however, with a 3.04 ERA, 3.67 SIERA, 4.1% walk rate, and league average strikeout rate (21.3%). Unfortunately, he has a difficult matchup tonight against the potent Boston lineup that still leads the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Tanaka typically doesn’t ever possess tournament upside, especially in this matchup. It also will be difficult to trust him in cash games against Boston. This is another spot we will most likely pass, though we shouldn’t actively target Red Sox hitters, either. Tanaka has had some success against Boston in the past, so it may not be a crazy idea to roster him on a shorter slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines A double digit walk rate has kept Daniel Mengden to five innings or less in each of last six starts
Daniel Mengden can miss bats (21.4 K%) on the rare occasion he finds the plate. A double digit walk rate leaves him with just a 10.2 K-BB%. He is facing a low power (9.1 HR/FB at home, 9.7 HR/FB vs RHP), low walk rate (6.6% vs RHP) offense with just an 84 wRC+ vs RHP though.The high walk rate has batters from either side with a wOBA just above .350 against him and could prevent him from getting deep into this game. He hasn’t gone more than five innings in any of his last six starts. Eric Hosmer (129 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Kendrys Morales (122 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are the two bats that have done any type of damage to RHPs in this lineup.
Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales, Daniel Mengden Stack Oakland against Edinson Volquez or just simply move on
The Athletics lack any real star power in their lineup, and targeting pitchers against Oakland has become a popular strategy of late. Unfortunately, they have proven people wrong with three straight wins against the Royals in which they have scored a total of 27 runs. It’s obviously difficult to expect their young hitters to sustain that level of success, but we are overvaluing pitchers against Oakland at the moment. This basically puts Edinson Volquez out of consideration. His 4.56 SIERA and 4.41 xFIP show his true talent level, and his strikeout rate is well below league average at 16.4%. All of the Oakland hitters are surprisingly cheap, and we can certainly run a stack out there if thinking they can keep this great offensive stretch going. Outside of Khris Davis (.264 ISO vs RHP) and Ryon Healy (125 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .182 ISO vs RHP) there aren’t any individual Athletics batters that we can feel good about from a matchup standpoint. This is a clear stack or fade situation but don’t count out the Athletics with their recent hot streak.
Other tagged players: Ryon Healy, Edinson Volquez