DFS Alerts
LHBs have a 37.7 Hard% against Jimmy Nelson, Cubs projected for 5.1 runs
Jimmy Nelson has an ERA approaching four and a half with estimators closer to five and just a 17.1 K% this season. He’s struggling against batters from either side of the plate this season (RHBs .343 wOBA, LHBs .344) with his 21 HRs just about evenly split, though LHBs are still hitting him much harder (37.7%), while RHBs have been kept on the ground 53.4% of the time with a 28.5 Hard%. The Cubs have the second highest run projection tonight (5.1) with every LHB plus Kris Bryant (143 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP career) firmly in play. Rizzo (151 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Fowler (110 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP since 2015, two HRs in 23 PAs against Nelson) are two of tonight’s top overall bats, while Zobrist (112 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP since 2015) tops Second Base.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Jimmy Nelson, Kris Bryant
Jerad Eickhoff struggles with LHB, but Pittsburgh may lack the firepower to take advantage
Jerad Eickhoff has a 4.19 SIERA and allows basically league average hard contact to go along with average strikeout (19.8%) and walk rates (5.5%). Eickhoff has similar advanced numbers against left-handed and right-handed batters, as he has exhinited very little in the way of hard contact or ground ball splits. His wOBA numbers suggest he is worse against left-handed batters, but a lot of that seems to be BABIP driven. This matchup is pretty neutral overall given the splits of Eickhoff and the Pirates average offense. It is certainly viable to use a hitter here if deemed necessary, Matt Joyce (150 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .253 ISO vs RHP) and Gregory Polanco (.212 ISO vs RHP) would be the best options, and it’s also viable to play Eickhoff in tournaments or as a SP2 on DraftKings. Although it may be best to avoid this matchup altogether.
Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Gregory Polanco
Dickerson (322 wRC+ last seven days) and Kiermaier (227 wRC+) have been hot, face Gallardo (LHBs .343 wOBA since 2015)
Batters from either side are hitting Yovani Gallardo fairly well at this point in his career as he’s not even generating ground balls at a high rate anymore. LHBs have a .343 wOBA against him since last year and the Rays have two LH Oufielders who are on fire. Corey Dickerson (116 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 322 wRC+ over the last week and Kevin Kiermaier (107 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is at 227 over that span. Dickerson does have a HR against Gallardo in 11 PAs and costs just $3.2K on FanDuel. Brad Miller (121 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2015) hasn’t been nearly as hot (43 wRC+ last seven days), but costs $100 less with a better lineup spot. All four LH Rays bats are can provide solid value on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Kevin Kiermaier, Yovani Gallardo, Brad Miller Chad Kuhl has just an 8.5 K-BB% and has just two IP this month, LHBs have a .359 wOBA, 36.6 Hard%
Chad Kuhl has just an 8.5 K-BB% and has struck out two or fewer in four of his 10 starts. He’s thrown just two innings this month and isn’t likely to go deep in this game, but does have one of the top matchups on the board in Philly (73 wRC+, 17.0 K-BB% at home, 82 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB% vs RHP). He has been formidable against RHBs (.290 wOBA, 28.6 Hard%), but has faced only 104 batters away from the power suppression of Pittsburgh this season. This is a significant park downgrade for him and Tommy Joseph has a 97 wRC+ and .247 wOBA vs RHP. He costs just $2.3K on FanDuel. Rookie Roman Quinn has started his career with a 198 wRC+ and hits out the second spot for less than $3K on DraftKIngs. Three other LHBs for the Phillies are priced above $4K on DraftKings, appropriate considering they have a .359 wOBA and 36.6 Hard% against Kuhl.
Other tagged players: Tommy Joseph, Chad Kuhl Blake Snell has lasted fewer than four innings in three of last four, Orioles have an 81 wRC+ vs LHP
Blake Snell has tonight’s second highest strikeout rate (23.6%) and costs just $5.5K on DraftKIngs against one of the worst offenses in baseball against LHP (81 wRC+), but the Orioles also have a 17.5 HR/FB at home. He’s gone less than four innings with exactly three strikeouts in three of his last four starts with a 16.2 BB% over his last six starts. Although he may generate a few Ks, we can’t really trust him for much else and certainly can’t even rely on him getting five innings in. For the Orioles, they’re like to generate a few walks, but walks don’t win GPPs, and then get into bullpen matchups fairly early. Manny Machado has been the only even average hitter for the Orioles against LHP this year (148 wRC+, .219) and retains his value against RHPs once Snell is out of the game. Only two other Baltimore bats (Davis, Hardy) have a wRC+ above 70 against LHP this season.
Other tagged players: Blake Snell Lonnie Chisenhall scratched Coco Crisp starting in his place
Chisenhall scratched Crisp is batting leadoff for him.
LHBs have a .378 wOBA and 37.9 Hard% vs Jhoulys Chacin since last year
Jhoulys Chacin has pitched his way out of the rotation and hasn’t been much better in the bullpen, but gets the spot start out of necessity tonight. Despite the negative run environment, the Mariners are projected for 4.6 runs with Nelson Cruz (138 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Kyle Seager (129 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Robinson Cano (138 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015) all looking like strong plays. LHBs have a .378 wOBA and 37.9 Hard% against Chacin since last season. Another interesting name to consider here is Norichika Aoki (111 wRC+, .119 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has little power, but three HRs in 19 PAs against Chacin and a 237 wRC+ over the last week. Of note on those three HRs though, one was an inside the park job and at least one other one occured in Colorado according to Baseball Savant.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, Norichika Aoki Rubby De La Rosa owns a low 5.0% K-BB% versus LHB
Rubby De La Rosa has shown impressive skills against right-handed batters over the past couple seasons with high strikeouts (29.8%), low walks (3.5%), and high ground balls (49.3%). It’s difficult to advise against using Nolan Arenado (130 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .293 ISO vs RHP), but the Colorado left-handed batters should be the priority. De La Rosa drops his strikeouts totals significantly when facing lefties (18.0%), and though his ground balls are up in a limited sample this year (54.5%), historically he has not been able to keep the ball on the ground as well to lefties. Carlos Gonzalez (120 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .215 ISO vs RHP) and Charlie Blackmon (131 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .266 ISO vs RHP) are worth paying up for, and Gerardo Parra (.159 ISO vs RHP) is cheap and another strong play in tournaments. Feel free to load up on Rockies as a part of a stack in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Gerardo Parra, Nolan Arenado, Rubby De La Rosa Hisashi Iwakuma (17.3 K%) has low strikeout upside (Angels 16.2 K% vs RHP), but a nice run prevention spot
Hisashi Iwakuma is in a nice run prevention spot against the coldest offense on the board (41 wRC+ over the last week) in the most pitcher friendly in play tonight, but may also have the lowest strikeout upside. He has just a 17.3 K% on the season and the Angels strike out just 16.2% of the time vs RHP. Considering the state of pitching on tonight’s board, expected run prevention in a favorable park might be more appealing than normal for $7.1K on DraftKings. The Angels are projected for just 3.9 runs. Iwakuma will still allow a few HRs, so Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an option as always, but costs a fortune and has just one career extra-base hit (a HR) in 52 career plate appearances against Iwakuma.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout Kevin's late weather update is posted
While Kevin mentions three games with some rain potential in his evening update. The PPD risk is almost non-existent and the only spot where players might be using a pitcher with any potential for delay is in Boston (Orioles Red Sox) and even that concern is low. Read Kevin's full report on our Weather Page for all the details and follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Jeff Hoffman has walked more batters than he's struck out with a 41.8 Hard%
Jeff Hoffman has walked 10 of the 85 major league batters he’s faced, while striking out only eight with a 41.8 Hard% that has led to five HRs. None of his four starts, home or road have been good. While Arizona is the worst park upgrade he could have gotten, it may still be his best matchup as his two previous road starts have come against the Dodgers and Cubs. The Diamondbacks have just an 87 wRC+ vs RHP, but are still projected for a slate high 5.5 runs here. The two bats players really want are Goldschmidt (142 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Lamb (138 wRC+, .300 ISO vs RHP this season), who costs just $3.4K on FanDuel. Yasmany Tomas has just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP this season, but with a .213 ISO and costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. All three have a wRC+ of 198 or higher over the last week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas, Jeff Hoffman Carlos Rodon has been consistent (at least 5.2 innings in 21 starts), but still struggles vs RHBs (.345 wOBA)
Carlos Rodon struck out a season high nine batters in his last start after striking out a total of 24 over his previous five. He’s consistently pitched between 5.2 to seven innings in 21 of 24 starts with five to eight strikeouts in 18 of them and that’s a reasonable expectation here against a Cleveland offense with a 98 wRC+ and league average strikeout rate against LHP. That’s a solid expectation, but it’s probably also his upside and will that pay off an $8.5K or higher price tag? Considering the state of pitching on this slate, players may want that consistency at this point. Rodon still struggles with RHBs (.345 wOBA career). Guyer, Napoli and Gimenez each have a wRC+ a bit above 140 and an ISO above .200 against LHP since last season. Unfortunately, two of those guys are in the bottom third of this order, but at a low enough price and at positions where players should be considering the cost saved. Napoli is just a strong overall play for $3.7K on DraftKIngs.
Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Chris Gimenez, Brandon Guyer Yordano Ventura has walked two or fewer in five of last six, but just six Ks over last three starts
Yordano Ventura has occasionally pitched well this season. He’s even walked two or fewer in five of his last six starts, but blew up for six two starts back. He’s also struck out just a total of six over his last three starts. He’s in another low strikeout spot tonight (A’s 18.8 K% vs RHP), but it is a nice run prevention one. The A’s are projected for just 3.5 runs, the second lowest total on the board. Players are probably going to have to get creative and use a pitcher or two they normally wouldn’t tonight, so in a spot where there aren’t really any coveted bats, maybe you pay $6.6K for Ventura on DraftKings and pray he doesn’t walk the park?
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Astros implied run total has ballooned nearly a full run (4.8) since the Yu Darvish scratch
It was originally supposed to be Yu Darvish pitching in this game, but he has been replaced by Derek Holland, pushing Houston bats up towards the top of the list. Holland is not a bad pitcher, but this is not a good lineup for him to face with his weak numbers against right-handed batters. His strikeouts are at just 13.0% to righties and he trades his ground ball tendencies to left-handed batters for a 43.4% fly ball rate to right-handed batters, where home runs have been an issue throughout his career. The top play is Jose Altuve (155 wRC+, .399 wOBA, .201 ISO vs LHP) with George Springer (154 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .269 ISO vs LHP) close behind. Carlos Correa (42% hard hits vs LHP) is one of the top shortstops on the board and Evan Gattis (140 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .280 ISO vs LHP) is an tournament catcher. Alex Bregman or Yulieski Gurriel can be added to a stack at third base, though it isn’t recommended to use either of them as one-offs.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: George Springer, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis, Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel, Derek Holland Anibal Sanchez has struck out a total of 11 batters over his last four starts
Anibal Sanchez has allowed at least three runs in each of his last four starts (not all earned), but much more concerning, his strikeout rate has plummeted with a total of 11 over his last four starts. He’s also only allowed two HRs and walked just two over this span, but if we’re going to be batted ball dependent, we want a better profile than his. He might make for a marginal secondary choice on DrafKings with some upside for $5.2K and there’s really no interest in Minnesota bats here either. Only two of them have been above a 93 wRC+ vs RHP either this season or since last season. Max Kepler (115 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a -23 wRC+ and 15.4 Hard% over the last week and Brian Dozier (116 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP since 2015) now costs $5.5K on DraftKings even against RHP ($4K on FanDuel). Projected for four runs, this appears to be a matchup players can avoid.
Other tagged players: Anibal Sanchez, Max Kepler