DFS Alerts
Kang OUT against Thompson, but still two great low priced options at the top of Pirates order (Frazier, Bell)
Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, and Jung-Ho Kang are all now missing from today’s lineup, which includes Sean Rodriguez, Eric Fryer and David Freese against a RHP instead of names like Joyce or Jaso, who might often get those spots against RHP. It’s even more confusing considering that LHBs have a .388 wOBA against Jake Thompson so far in his young career. RHBs have hit the ball hard 37.1% of the time though, so they can really justify playing nearly anybody they want in this spot, but the most interesting bats are the cheap ones at the top of the lineup. Adam Frazier (118 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP) and Josh Bell (148 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP) will help you get to Jose Fernandez today and are more likely to help than hurt your lineup in a great spot while doing it. Especially on FanDuel, where each are $2.6K or less, at least one of these names if not both is a near necessity in your lineup if paying up for the most expensive pitcher.
Other tagged players: Adam Frazier, David Freese, Eric Fryer, Sean Rodriguez
Porcello has a 47.6% GB% and 27.6% Hard% versus RHB
Rick Porcello has been remarkably consistent of late, going at least seven innings and allowing three runs or less in his last nine outings. He also has one total walk in his last four starts. Not only that, everyone thinks this stretch is a fluke, and Porcello may go pretty under-owned this evening. This is the first time in over a month his salary has been below $11K on DraftKings, and while the Orioles obviously have some power, they are a team that lives and dies by the home run. It’s unlikely they’ll be notching a ton of hits, and Porcello won’t be putting guys on base with free passes (3.8% BB%), so a solo bomb or two won’t hurt us much at all. We should fully expect Porcello to put together another solid outing and could possibly put us in great shape for a differentiated, higher-upside lineup than most of our competition will have with Jose Fernandez (assuming he falters of course) in tournaments..
As reported by: FanGraphs
Joe Musgrove costs less than $7K facing a team projected for fewer than four runs
Joe Musgrove has a 21.9 K% just a little lower than he did in the minors this season. He walked 3% of his batters at both AA and AAA this season and just three of his first 113 in the majors. However, after a couple of rough starts, he’s now walked eight of his last 70. He’s actually throwing more first pitch strikes over this span (64.3% vs 57.9% overall), but fewer pitches in the zone (41% vs 45.2% overall) in an attempt to lower his hard contact rate (36.4%). Young pitchers will always have to make adjustments to survive in the majors and he has the talent to do. A cost below seven against a league average offense (91 wRC+ on the road, 98 wRC+ vs RHP) is probably too low for his skill level. It’s certainly a risk as he hasn’t really found his way yet, but four of his seven starts would have covered that cost and it’s really slim pickings behind Fernandez on the night slate. The Rangers are projected for just 3.9 runs, among several other teams facing much higher priced pitchers. Musgrove is a very reasonable risk to take tonight. High cost bats with a low run projection are probably not the best plays tonight, but Adrian Beltre has been rejuvenated against RHP this season (116 wRC+, .202 ISO) and has a 214 wRC+ over the last week for just $3.2K on FanDuel. All other above average bats against RHP are either lower in the order or much more expensive.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre Tim Adleman has allowed 10 HRs in 46.1 innings with ERA estimators well above five
Tim Adleman has allowed 10 HRs in 46.1 innings, but only 20 runs total with a 7.7 K-BB% and 34.2 Hard% (0.81 GB/FB) due to an 86.3% strand rate. Though he has a 3.88 ERA, his estimators are all well above five. RHBs have a .342 wOBA and 36.5 Hard% against him, LHBs a .382 wOBA and 31.2 Hard%. Everyone hits him well. Ryan Braun (122 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top bat, but an expensive one. The really interesting option here might be Keon Broxton (88 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP) in the second spot. He has hit the ball hard 53.9% of the time over the last week and costs just $2.8K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Keon Broxton, Tim Adleman Brault comes into this pristine matchup with an unsightly 5.20 SIERA through five starts
Steven Brault showed excellent strikeout stuff in Triple-A this year (25.8%), though his rise in strikeouts in the Minors coincided with a rise in walks. The walks have carried over to the Majors so far for Brault (11.0% BB%), but the strikeouts have not (17.4% K%). If we had faith in Brault, we would love him today against a Phillies squad that is horrendous against left-handed pitching, and ranks 29th in both wOBA and strikeout rate over the last month. It’s difficult to trust Brault, however, as he seems like a pitcher who is simply not quite ready for the big leagues. If thinking that the plus matchup trounces his skill set and readiness, then there are certainly reasons to back up a decision to roster Brault. But be warned that it comes with a bit more risk than it might seem on the surface.
As reported by: FanGraphs Royals have three above average hitters against LHP (120+ wRC+) at $3.1K or less on FanDuel
Sean Manaea last threw 61 pitches on August 29th, leaving the game with a back issue. He’s really begun to show an ability to miss bats (20.6 K%, 12.0 SwStr% this season) and while it would be nice consider him today in a decent spot in Kansas City (93 wRC+ at home, 97 wRC+ vs LHP), back issues are tricky. Can we even count on him for five healthy innings? The Royals lineup offers players a couple of interesting options at the top of the order. Whit Merrifield (126 wRC+ vs LHP) costs just $2.9K on FanDuel out of the leadoff spot at a middle infield position. RHBs do have a .343 wOBA and 35.4 Hard% against Manaea. Cheslor Cuthbert (127 wRC+ vs LHP this season) costs less than $3K on either site. Kendrys Morales (124 wRC+, .210 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just above $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield, Cheslor Cuthbert, Sean Manaea Jose Fernandez has struck out at least 13 five times this season
Jose Fernandez was coming off his worst start of the season in Cleveland and in what could have been a tough spot at home against the powerful LHBs of the Dodgers, he promptly struck out 14 of 27 batters. That kind of potential (at least 13 Ks five times this season) is why he’s probably the top guy every time he takes the mound and easily the top guy tonight. He has the top strikeout rate in baseball (34.9%). He has the top strikeout rate since Randy Johnson in 2001. The Braves have been better (105 team wRC+ is fourth best since the All-Star break) and don’t strike out much (19.1% on the road and vs RHP), but he can drop nearly 10 points off his K% and still project as the top arm tonight. Fernandez has struggled with LHBs though (.319 wOBA, 35.4 Hard%), so rostering either Freeman (155 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2015) with two HRs in 21 PAs against Fernandez for $4K on DraftKings or even Markakis (115 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), who has a 213 wRC+ over the last week and one HR in 11 PAs against Fernandez for $2.7K on FanDuel might be a justifiable contrarian approach. However, after the two scratches tonight, cash game players should really be paying up for Fernandez. There are really no other options. For GPP players, our Projected Ownership page has him above 40% on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Nick Markakis, Freddie Freeman Tyler Duffey's reverse platoon split (RHBs .384 wOBA) could spell trouble in Detroit
Tyler Duffey has a reverse platoon split (RHBs .384 wOBA, 33.9 Hard%, 20 of 27 HRs career) and could be in trouble in Detroit. It’s not a good matchup for him, but a $4.7K price tag on DraftKings is still too low for his above average peripherals (13.4 K-BB% this season and a career 14.6 K-BB% on the road). Risk embracers could consider pairing him with Fernandez on a board otherwise deficient in pitching value. The Tigers have just a 77 wRC+ over the last week with only Victor Martinez (137) above 100 over that span. The Tigers are projected for a second best five runs tonight though, so we’re certainly on the two RH Detroit bats that hammer RHP. J.D. Martinez (143 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Miguel Cabrera (151 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top overall bats tonight. Justin Upton (113 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has missed a few games this week, but has two HRs in five PAs against Duffey.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Tyler Duffey, Justin Upton Josh Tomlin has allowed 35 HRs and at least one in each of his last 15 starts
Josh Tomlin has thrown just one inning in September and has only gotten through five innings once since the start of August. His 35 HRs allowed are second most in the majors. He’s allowed one in all but two starts and each of his last 15 and has an extreme reverse split. RHBs have a .367 wOBA against him since last season. LHBs are almost exactly 100 points lower, but both have a hard hit rate above 34%. This works out perfectly for Jose Abreu, who has a reverse split himself (133 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and has three extra-base hits in nine PAs against Tomlin. He may be too costly on DraftKings ($5.3K), but costs a very reasonable $3.3K on FanDuel. Todd Frazier (101 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $3.9K on DraftKings.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Josh Tomlin, Todd Frazier Dietrich returns, bats second against Teheran, whom LHBs have a .354 wOBA against since 2015
After the two scratches, Julio Teheran may be the second best pitcher on the board tonight, considering park and matchup as well. However, facing the top pitcher on the board (Fernandez), he’s not a favorite to win for $8.4K on FanDuel and his $10.3K price tag on DraftKings is difficult to justify with just a 22.2 K% and estimators a full run higher than his 3.01 ERA due to a high strand rate (79.7%). LHBs have hit him well (.354 wOBA, 33.9 Hard% since 2015 – the wOBA is lower, but the Hard% is higher just this season) and the Marlins are now a little healthier from that side of the plate. Christian Yelich (148 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP this season), Justin Bour (132 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and the returning Derek Dietrich (127 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP since last season) all seem under-priced on either site against a fly ball pitcher. Even Dee Gordon (64 wRC+ vs RHP this season) is worth a flyer for $2.2K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Julio Teheran, Justin Bour, Christian Yelich, Dee Strange-Gordon Boston has homered four times in nine innings, scoring 11 runs against Kevin Gausman in two starts
Kevin Gausman is a pitcher that it would have been really nice to see in a better spot. He faces the best offense (115 wRC+ vs RHP) and one of the hottest (140 wRC+ last seven days) in one of the worst parks (123 wRC+ at home) without much of a discount. This is the only truly awful spot on the entire slate. Boston has homered four times in nine innings, scoring 11 runs against him in two starts, though he has struck out 11 of 44 Red Sox. The first four batters have all faced him between 15 and 20 times with all except Bogaerts homering. Betts (127 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Ortiz (170 wRC+, .340 ISO vs RHP since 2015) have two each. With their high cost and Gausman (who is not a bad pitcher at all) owning a reverse split (RHBs .358 wOBA since last season), perhaps Dustin Pedroia (122 wRC+, .136 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has a 220 wRC+ and 44 Hard% over the last week, is the value play here. He costs $4.1K on DraftKings and $3.5K on FanDuel. Hanley Ramirez (97 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been pounding the ball over the last week as well (210 wRC+, 41.2 Hard%) and could be an interesting pivot from Ortiz here.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Kevin Gausman LHBs have a 39.5 Hard% against Junior Guerra
Junior Guerra (.252 – 78.3% – 8.7) misses bats at a league average rate (20.3 K%), but also walks them at one as well (8.7%). He allows hard contact 33.2% of the time in Milwaukee and his numbers are due for serious regression with just a .252 BABIP, 78.3 LOB% and 8.7 HR/FB. When that happens, he’ll likely be a below average pitcher and thus over-priced tonight, taking on a below average offense (95 wRC+ at home, 91 wRC+ vs RHP), but in a dangerous park. While he has shown no real platoon split via wOBA (LHBs .281 – RHBs .285), lefties have hit the ball hard 39.5% of the time against him. Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP since 2015) plays against nearly any RHP these days. Scott Schebler (107 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $3.3K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Junior Guerra, Scott Schebler St. Louis will look to solve Jon Lester in the rubber match against the Division Rival Chicago Cubs
To say John Lester has found his groove would simply be an understatement as the left-hander has posted a perfect 7-0 record to go along with a 1.65 ERA in ten starts since the All-Star break. He’ll look to keep things rolling this afternoon against the division rival St. Louis Cardinals, but should face at least some resistance as many of these St. Louis hitters have handled the bat decently against him in the past. Stephen Piscotty leads the Red Birds with an impressive .425 wOBA and .287 ISO against left-handed pitching and looks to be the top option, with the other top seven in this order acceptable secondary options.
Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz
Blue Jays seek revenge after being defeated by Alex Cobb just last week. Donaldson and Martin both out.
Alex Cobb has pitched admirably in his first two starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, but he’ll once again be tested as he heads to Toronto to battle this Blue Jays team for the second time in two weeks. While he bested them in that first outing, Toronto does own an impressive .341 team wOBA at the Rogers Centre this season and you’ll want to give them plenty of consideration in this five game afternoon slate. With that said, with both Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin watching from the dugout, this lineup feels a bit watered down. Still, with Cobb still working to rediscover his old form, it’s hard to be too gun shy on just a five game (four in most cases) afternoon slate.
Other tagged players: Russell Martin, Jose Bautista Anthony Rizzo the top option as Cubs battle Carlos Martinez at Busch Stadium
Carlos Martinez has tossed six straight quality starts and now owns an impressive 14-7 record and 3.05 ERA this season, but he’s yet to solve this Chicago Cubs team. The Cardinals presumptive ace has dominated batters from the right-side of the plate (.235 wOBA against) but has been far less effective against left-handed batters (.325 wOBA against). With that in mind, Anthony Rizzo looks like a fine option as he’s posted a .404 wOBA and 39.3% hard-hit percentage against right-handers this year and has also had success off of Martinez in their past meetings.