DFS Alerts
Projections Are Dominated by Two Offenses on Monday
The Blue Jays (5.46 implied runs), Cardinals (5.46) and Braves (5.39) are essentially tied at the top of the board with the Astros (5.03) also reaching a five run team total on a 20 team board, where three more teams (Padres, Diamondbacks, Nationals) also exceed four and a half runs. Projections for two of the top three teams simply dominate PlateIQ projections tonight (though projections are fluid and subject to change). Each of the top four projected bats and seven of the top 10 overall are either Toronto Blue Jays or Atlanta Braves, leaving the Cardinals as the odd offense out, despite the slightly higher run total than the Braves. Paul Goldschmidt (133 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the only Cardinal to project as a top 10 bat against Mitch Keller on either site.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (150 wRC+, .269 ISO) is tonight’s top projected bat. Josiah Gray accomplished the double feat of walking fewer than three batters and failing to allow a home run for the first time this year. He’s done either a few times, but never both in the same start until his most recent one. Missing bats has never been the problem for Gray (25.9 K%, 12.6 SwStr%). Failure to find the strike zone often enough (10.9 BB%) and getting hammered from always pitching behind in the count (17.9 HR/FB, 24.2 GB%, 13.5% Barrels/BBE) has been. A 4.16 SIERA is his only estimator below a 4.33 ERA. Gray has had particular issues with LHBs in his short major league career (.377 wOBA, .384 xwOBA), which would seem to make a predominantly right-handed Altanta lineup a better matchup for him, though he hasn’t been particularly strong against same-handed batters either (.320 wOBA, .302 xwOBA). Joining Acuna Jr. as top 10 projected bats are Matt Olson (137 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Austin Riley (137 wRC+, .243 ISO). All three are quite expensive though.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (155 wRC+, .278 ISO) and George Springer (135 wRC+, .274 ISO) are both top three projected bats, hosting Kyle Bradish. There’s nothing lacking in his bat missing ability (24 K%, 11.2 SwStr%), but he walks a few too many (9.6%) and the contact profile is a disaster. Bradish has allowed a home run in every start with 10 of 13 barrels (12%) leaving the yard on a 92.3 mph average EV overall. Considering how far the walls were moved back and up in Baltimore this off-season, one could argue that none of those home runs were given up in power friendly environments. Even worse for Bradish in this spot, RHBs have torched him (.488 wOBA, .461 xwOBA). Bo Bichette (111 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (104 wRC+, .175 ISO) join their teammates as top 10 projected bats.
Price Tag is Far Too Low For This Pitcher's Debut in a Great Spot
A simple pricing mishap gives us the our top projected point per dollar pitching value on FanDuel, according to Plate IQ, with Lance Lynn costing just $5.5K in his season debut in Detroit (65 wRC+, 24.7 K% and 6.7 HR/FB vs RHP). Even if we’re not expecting what he’s produced in recent seasons, this price tag appears too low with the caveat being that his minor league rehab starts (all three at AAA) did not go so well. Lynn struck out just eight of 46 batters with two home runs and walks, allowing 10 runs over the same amount of innings. Optimistically, he did face 20 batters in his last start and should be ready for a larger workload than $5.5K implies here. Those AAA batters may be better than the Tigers too. Costing $9.6K on DraftKings, Lynn projects as one of the worst values on the board.
As far as pitchers below $9K that you might consider on a one pitcher site in FanDuel GPPs, Alex Wood and Brady Singer come to mind in a game where they are facing each other. Wood entered his last start (number 11), having not yet completed six innings in a start, so it was certainly a surprise when he exited after seven innings of one run ball against the Rockies. A solid 16.9 K-BB% and 49.1 GB% suggested all along that he was much better than an ERA nearing four and a half. All estimators remain below four, still at least one-third of a run removed from his 4.23 ERA with the main culprit being a .340 BABIP. The San Francisco defense has been stunningly bad (-16 Runs Prevented, .310 BABIP). The Royals have just a 96 wRC+ and 8.4 HR/FB vs LHP, but also a board low 17.7 K% vs LHP. Wood is still the third best projected value above $7K on FanDuel ($8.6K). He’s also the fourth best projected value overall on DraftKings at $8.3K.
Singer has a 24.1 K% on a league average 10.9 SwStr%, but board topping 21.8 CStr%. That said, after moving back into the rotation with 14 shutout innings over his first two starts, he’s been pounded for six home runs on eight barrels (15.4%) and 13 runs over his last 15.2 innings. He hasn’t walked anyone, but has a 92.8 mph EV with a much lower ground ball rate (46.2%) over this span. With a 21.3 K-BB% on the season, Singer has contact neutral estimators below three, while his FIP and xERA stretch just above four, though still below his 4.33 ERA. The Giants have a 107 wRC+, 22.3 K% and 12.8 HR/FB vs RHP, but could be a bit flat coming off a sweep of the Dodgers where the pitching did most of the heavy lifting. The San Francisco offense has just a 77 wRC+ and 26.8 K% over the last week. Singer is the fourth best projected value above $7K on FanDuel ($8.3K), but is a bit further down the board on DraftKings for $300 less.
Looking at a few lower priced SP2 types on DraftKings, Ian Anderson posted a 2.8 K-BB% over his first five starts then had a couple of marginal starts in between (8.3%) before seeming to steady the ship over his last four starts (16.8%). He’s struck out more than 20% in each of his last four starts with a double digit walk rate just once. As a result, he’s fallen short of six innings in all four starts by a single out, though that’s not to say they’ve been Quality Starts (only one), as he’s allowed multiple home runs in two of the four starts and at least four runs in three of them. A .359 BABIP, 68 LOB% and 16.7 HR/FB seem easier problems to solve than a narrow gap or even negative K-BB%. Also encouraging, he’s allowed just a single barrel that stayed in the park over this span. With just 5.0% Barrels/BBE on the season, a 3.78 xERA is his only estimator below four and therefor also more than half a run removed from his 4.53 ERA. Estimators over the last month are right around the four mark though. The Nationals have a 98 wRC+ and 20.2 K% vs RHP. Anderson does not currently project as a top half of the board value on DraftKings, but should get there if he pitches more like he has recently and less like he did in April.
The top two projected values on DraftKings both cost less than $5K. Mike Minor has struck out eight of 38 batters with an 11.7 SwStr% and three walks, while his velocity appears to be intact. The five home runs (35.7 HR/FB) and barrels (19.2%) appear to be a problem, but a very unsustainable one with an average 88.2 mph EV. At 34 years-old, perhaps expect a slight decline from his career 15.1 K-BB%, which still makes him a fine mid-to-back end of the rotation starter when healthy and a great value at his current cost in Arizona (81 wRC+, 24.2 K% vs LHP). Zack Thompson (with a K) will be making his first career major league start after coming out of the bullpen for four innings in his major league debut. He struck out just three of 16 Cubs with a 5.4 SwStr%, but with half his contact on the ground and an 82.4 mph EV. An April scouting report called the 24 year-old with a 45 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) a “low variance fourth or fifth starter” with a big time curveball, but no other above average pitch, which may mean a potential reverse platoon split if he throws it often enough. That should be enough to justify a $4.3K price tag against the Pirates (86 wRC+, 24.8 K% vs LHP).
At Least 25 Batters Faced and Seven Innings in Six Straight Starts
On a 10 game slate to start the week, the matchup in Philadelphia between Sandy Alcantara and Aaron Nola includes the only two pitchers exceeding $10K on both sites. In fact, Alcantara reaches a stunning $11.3K on FanDuel tonight, while being more than $1K less on DraftKings. A workhorse with a solidly above average strikeout rate is a pitcher everyone wants a piece of. Alcantara has a 24.1 K% and has completed seven innings while facing at least 25 batters in each of his last six starts, allowing a total of six runs (three earned) over that span. Add in a 13.2 SwStr% and also a 26.8 K% with a 14.8 SwStr% over the last month that suggests even more is possible and you have a bona fide Cy Young contender. All of Alcantara’s estimators have dropped below three over the last month. Contact neutral estimators (17.6 K-BB%) remain around three and a half for the season, while contact inclusive ones (53.8 GB%, 86.4 mph EV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE) drop below three. It’s certainly a park downgrade and the Flaming Phillies have a 104 wRC+ with a 22.7 K% and 14.0 HR/FB vs RHP. Alcantara is the second best projected pitcher on the board by PlateIQ tonight (projections are fluid and subject to change), though obviously a better projected value on DraftKings. To find out which pitcher projects better than Alcanatara and which high priced pitchers you may want to be conservative with, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Ramon Urias scratched Friday
Ramon Urias scratched Friday
As reported by: Zachary Silver via Twitter
Not a Bat Above $3.3K Against Struggling Pitcher Projects Top Value Stack on FD
On the first full 15 game slate of the season, no stack is projected to reach double digit ownership on either site (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change). In fact, no team reaches even an eight percent ownership projection on FanDuel at this point in time with the Brewers (7.42 Own%) expected to be most popular by a slim margin, while the Royals (9.31 Own%) may end up being the most popular DraftKings stack. With 30 teams on the board, simulations still find the team with the top run line on the board (Blue Jays 5.42) smashing the slate a bit more than 10% of the time with Atlanta (third at 5.08 runs) second, a bit less often than eight percent. The Chicago White Sox separate themselves a bit from the rest of the board in terms of value (14.84%) with no other stack on FanDuel projected above nine percent. Glenn Otto’s strikeout rate is down to 19% this season and his walk rate is out of control (13.2%). Add in 9.6% Barrels/BBE and his best estimator is a 4.79 xFIP. No batter in the projected lineup for the White Sox costs more than $3.3K on FanDuel with prospective leadoff man Leury Garcia costing just $2.1K against a pitcher whom LHBs have a .391 xwOBA against since last year. The Brewers, White Sox and Padres all project a Value% in double digits on DraftKings. What does a full 15 game board that appears to be well spread mean for the top offenses in terms of Leverage Ratings? Read today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.
Pair of Cheap RHBs Could Be Top Values Against Barrel Prone Lefty
The great news, or maybe more aptly, convenient news for FanDuel players is that along with holding several of the top projected bats overall in their lineup, a pair of Toronto Blue Jays (who sit atop the board at 5.42 implied runs) also project as top 10 values. Projected to bat in the middle of the lineup, Teoscar Hernandez (106 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Alejandro Kirk (117 wRC+, .158 ISO) both cost less than $3K against rookie Elvin Rodriguez, whom RHBs have a .400+ wOBA and .350+ xwOBA against in a small sample.
The top projected point per dollar value on the FanDuel menu tonight is a Boston bat, who continue their seemingly month long west coast trip in Seattle tonight. Marco Gonzales has struck out more than two just five times in 11 starts with a high of six. He’s allowed a barrel in seven straight starts and 17 on the year, which is 8.7% of his contact, but seems like so much more with the lack of strikeouts (13.7%). RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .335 against him since last season. Christian Arroyo (102 wRC+, .184 ISO vs LHP since LY) has been finding himself in the leadoff spot against LHP with Kike Hernandez out and costs just $2.1K on FD, which makes him the top projected value on that board tonight. Bobby Dalbec’s power bat (125 wRC+, .256 ISO) is also among the top 10 projected values for less than $2.5K.
The top projected point per dollar value by PlateIQ on DraftKings is a Tampa Bay Ray against Devin Smeltzer. Six of his 10 strikeouts came in one start and he’s only been above his season 47.1 GB% in one of his five starts, while also only being below an 88.8 mph EV in just one start as well. The heavy lifting in a 1.93 ERA has been done by a .217 BABIP, 86.2 LOB% and 5.7 HR/FB. RHBs have just a .236 wOBA, but .313 xwOBA against Smeltzer since last season. Harold Ramirez (126 wRC+, .130 ISO vs LHP since 2021) projects to bat second for less than $2.5K, making him the top projected value on DraftKings. He also has a teammate among the top 10 projected values on DK in Vidal Brujan (65 wRC+), who costs just $2.2K.
One other offense places a pair of teammates among the top 10 projected values tonight on DK and that’s TJ Friedl (53 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) and Colin Moran (103 wRC+, .151 ISO), each costing the bare minimum ($2K) against rookie Andre Pallante, whose first start did not go so well. He walked four of 18 Cubs with just two strikeouts over 64 pitches. In 29.1 innings this year, he has just a 4.7 K-BB%, allowing just 3.2% Barrels/BBE, despite 45.2% of his contact being at least a 95 mph EV because 63.4% of it has been on the ground. Estimators run from a 3.51 xERA to a 4.04 xFIP, almost exclusively due to that elite ground ball rate, which he may not be able to carry over to a starting role. He actually has a very large reverse split over this small sample (RHBs .389 wOBA, .321 xwOBA – LHBs .205 wOBA, .287 xwOBA), but the projections like the two cheap lefties for more value than some higher priced RHBs, none the less.
Projections and Sportsbooks Like This Offense to Punish Rookie Pitcher
Our first full 15 game slate of the year without most of the extremely positive run environments on the board finds just three teams currently exceeding a five run team total with the Blue Jays (5.42) at the top of the board, just ahead of the Yankees (5.27) and Braves (5.08). However, 10 more teams have an implied total of at least four and a half runs, which should make this a well spread out slate in terms of bat ownership. However, half of the top 10 projected batters by PlateIQ still come from the top two teams without any other offense placing multiple batters atop the board. Projections love George Springer (132 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (157 wRC+, .281 ISO) and Bo Bichette (110 wRC+, .174 ISO) to do major damage against rookie Elvin Rodriguez, whom batters from either side of the plate are above a .400 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against in a small sample. He’s struck out just 14 of 72 batters with a 6.9 SwStr%, walked seven and allowed six home runs on six barrels (11.8%) with just 36% of his contact on the ground and 92.7 mph EV. Teoscar Hernandez (106 wRC+, .178 ISO) is just outside the top 10.
Aaron Judge (151 wRC+, .291 ISO vs LHP since LY) is the top projected bat on FanDuel (second on DraftKings) with Giancarlo Stanton (142 wRC+, .224 ISO) just outside the top five. Wade Miley has made just three starts, bookended by IL stints. Five of his seven walks came in his first outing against the Padres, while he’s struck out nine of 47 since and kept the ball on the ground (58.3%). The IL stint was short, but with no rehab starts and not having pitched in nearly three weeks. RHBs have a .330 wOBA and .322 xwOBA against Miley since last season, but we’ll likely be seeing a lot of the Chicago bullpen too in this one. They rank as a middling unit with a 4.45 ERA and 4.20 FIP, but 3.42 xFIP and 3.11 SIERA over the last 30 days.
Several Mid-Range Arms in High Upside Matchups
Aside from a couple of top arms, who are on top of their game in favorable matchups, players may want to consider dropping down below $9K for additional or alternate pitching choices. By current PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) the top four point per dollar values on FanDuel all cost between $7K and $9K. Spencer Strider’s ($7.2K FD) 36.8 K%. 77.8 Z-Contact% and 15.2 SwStr% as a multi-inning reliever basically forced his way into the rotation, though that’s not to say there aren’t flaws. He’s struck out 12 of 38 over two starts, but also walked six. He’s been a bit fortunate that just one of six barrels this season (9.1%) have left the yard, but even with a 13.5 BB%, the strikeout rate is so strong that a 3.20 xERA is still his only estimator above three. Now the question becomes how much of that strikeout rate he can retain as he continues to stretch out. He did throw a season high 87 pitches last time out, but with the control issues, that only allowed him to get through four innings and 87 batters. Atlanta is a dangerous park, but we love the upside in the matchup tonight (Pirates 85 wRC+, 24.9 K% vs RHP). We have to be concerned about whether the workload will get him to a Quality Start tonight, but Strider is also the second best projected value on DraftKings for $7K, where he can easily slot into your SP2.
Nearly 40% (20 of 49) of Jose Berrios’s ($8.4K FD) strikeouts have come in two of his last three starts, but it’s difficult to say he’s getting rolling when he struck out just one Angel with a 5.4 SwStr% in between. He’s also allowed multiple barrels in five straight starts and 24 overall (13.3%) and has just two starts where he’s averaged below an 89.5 mph EV. Maybe he can still dial it up and deserves a spot in a few of your hundred GPP lineups, but there’s been little in the way of positive consistency in his season with a 4.24 SIERA being his lowest estimator. Again, what we love is the upside in the matchup in Detroit (board low 69 wRC+ and 25 K% vs RHP). Berrios costs nearly $1K less on DK, where he projects as a top value as well.
Tylor Megill makes his return from the IL after striking out five of 14 AA batters in his lone rehab start. He’ll probably be limited a bit more than usual, but the Mets would rather have those innings at the major league level. We probably should pay less attention to his last start, in which Washington lit him up for eight runs over 1.1 innings with just a single strikeout nearly a month ago. He still has a 19.4 K-BB% with all estimators more than half a run below his 4.41 ERA (66.9 LOB%). We’re concerned about the workload, as he only costs below $9K on FD and just barely, but whether Mike Trout returns or not, there should be a ton of strikeouts in the Angels’ lineup for him (108 wRC+, 25.4 K% vs RHP).
Over his last two starts, Aaron Ashby has struck out 21 of 49 Padres and Cubs (18.1 SwStr%) with just two walks, a 60 GB% and 87.7 mph EV. On the season, he’s allowed as many barrels (four) as home runs with a 30.5 K%, but also an 11.2 BB%, so the improved control is actually new and exciting and should allow him to remain in games longer if it’s sustained. A 3.16 FIP (16.7 HR/FB) is the only estimator above his 3.13 ERA. While the Nationals have just a 90 wRC+ vs LHP, it comes with a board low 17.3 K% against them. Ashby costs $8.6K on either site, which still may be too low.
Triston McKenzie has struck out four or fewer in three of his last four starts, but completed seven innings in all four. This comes with a 3.45 ERA, but also a 100% strand rate and .070 BABIP. However, his 12.3 SwStr% over this span is actually a full point about his season rate (11.1%), so expect the strikeout rate to pop back up. He just snapped a run of five straight Quality Starts and owns a respectable, if not overwhelming, 15.0 K-BB% on the year, though the contact profile may still be a problem (28 GB%, 91.2 mph EV, 9.9% Barrels/BBE). Estimators are all well above his 3.10 ERA on the season with only a 3.92 xERA below four. He too, has a tremendous matchup with the A’s (72 wRC+, 24.4 K% vs RHP).
Costing less than $7K on DraftKings, keep an eye on Roansy Contreras in Atlanta tonight. He is a well-regarded pitching prospect (50 FV Fangraphs), who is living up to the hype so far. He’s struck out 26 of 95 major league batters this year (13.2 SwStr%), though six of 60 batted balls have been barreled. The interesting news is that the Pirates allowed him to throw 98 pitches last time out and may be ready to loosen the reigns a bit as his early estimators run a tight and impressive range between 3.13 DRA and a 3.30 xFIP. Atlanta is a park downgrade, but a predominantly right-handed lineup has struggled against RHP with a 94 wRC+ and board high 26.2 K%.
The Most Consistent Pitcher on the Board Tonight
Nearly the middle of June and we’ve finally come to our first full 15 game slate of the season on Friday night. This slate is unique in a number of ways. Aside from including all 30 teams, only two domed environments are in play on Friday night without any of the extremely hitter friendly run environments (Colorado, Cincinnati, Boston). In fact, the most positive run environment on the board (weather factors included from Weather Edge) might be the game between the Mets and Angels tonight, which may not include Mike Trout or Pete Alonso. But we’re here right now to talk about pitching, first and foremost about the three $10K arms on the slate. And all three cost more than $10K on both sites with two additional arms above $9K on both sites, who are likely over-priced, but we’ll get to that later.
No pitcher costs more than Joe Musgrove on either site ($10.9K FanDuel, $10.5K DraftKings). While he is not missing bats at an elite rate this year (24.8 K%, 11.3 SwStr%), continued elite control (5.4 BB%) and contact management (86.5 mph EV, 4.5% Barrels/BBE) have allowed him to be a workhorse and pile up strikeouts by pitching deep into games. He’s recorded a Quality Start in all 10 outings this year, all of the two earned run or fewer variety, facing no fewer than 25 batters in seven straight starts and failing to strike out at least six just twice this year. With no more than eight strikeouts in any start either, it may not be the highest ceiling, but it’s a damn high and enviable floor in a favorable home park with a strong run prevention matchup (Rockies 85 wRC+, 21.4 K% vs RHP – 43 wRC+ last seven days). Musgrove is our second best projected overall arm by PlateIQ (projections subject to change), but does project for the highest floor on FanDuel, making him a better cash game play, but strong in either format, even if not among the top projected values. Which pitcher currently projects better than Musgrove and why might other high priced pitchers not be good choices tonight? Find the answers on Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.
Will Players Opt For Value Over Dominance Tonight?
Current stacking projections, which are very fluid and subject to change throughout the day, believe that players will be going for value bats first with cheap Royals (4.75 team run total) expected to be the most popular stack on the board on either site with the Guardians (4.89) not too far behind. This, despite the Braves (5.42) smashing the site around 50% more often than any other team in simulations. It should then not surprise anyone that the Royals project as the highest value stack on FanDuel, though not much above the A’s who have a nearly 30 Value% projection on DraftKings with no other stack above 20% at this point in time. It’s going to take some courage to stack Oakland bats against Max Fried though. What does this mean in terms of projected leverage with half the board above four and a half implied runs? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.
This Game Projects Lots of High Value Bats
If you’re attempting to roster Gerrit Cole with an Atlanta stack, PlateIQ projections strongly suggest filling out the other half of your lineup with Kansas City Royals. In fact, Kansas City bats project as five of the top 10 point per dollar values on either site and own the top four spots currently on FanDuel. Jordan Lyles hasn’t been awful this year (12.9 K-BB%), but batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and Royals are cheap. Carlos Santana (76 wRC+ vs RHP since last season), Andrew Benintendi (113 wRC+, .152 ISO), Nicky Lopez (101 wRC+) and MJ Melendez (88 wRC+) are the top four projected values on FanDuel with Kyle Isbel (103 wRC+) just a few spots behind. DraftKings projections swap Emmanuel Rivera (75 wRC+) for Melendez with none of these players costing more than $3.1K tonight.
Considering Kris Bubic’s .334 wOBA and .363 xwOBA against RHBs since last season, DraftKings projections also consider Tyler Nevin (215 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP) and Robinson Chirinos (79 wRC+, .169 ISO vs LHP since 2021) to be top projected values for less than $2.5K.
This Offense Separates from the Board by Team Total and Projections
The Atlanta Braves, for the third night in a row, top the slate, but are the only team above five implied runs on either a five or six game board with a 5.42 team run total at home against J.T. Brubaker. While half the board is above four and a half runs, the Braves do separate themselves from it by more than half a run currently. Tonight’s PlateIQ projections, which are fluid and subject to change, currently project three Atlanta batters among the top 10 overall bats tonight. Ten of Brubaker’s 23 strikeouts over his last five starts came in one start (Cubs) and 19 of 40 over his last eight have come in just two (Reds). Considering he had an 18+ SwStr% in each of those games and just 11% on the year, it’s hard to trust any of his season strikeout numbers (22.5%) and may make us more concerned about a 10.2 BB%. He’s walked at least two in nine of 11 starts. While all estimators are below his 4.70 ERA, the lowest is a 3.98 DRA, so again, some concern if the strikeout rate is not real or at least consistent. A wild pitcher is a good one to stack against. Projections strongly suggest Ronald Acuna Jr. (147 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since LY), Austin Riley (138 wRC+, .243 ISO) and Matt Olson (139 wRC+, .228 ISO) should be part of those stacks. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against Brubaker since last season.
A pair of Yankees are also top projected bats on either site. After getting off to a surprisingly strong start, Dylan Bundy has struck out three or fewer in four of his last five starts with at least four runs allowed in three of them. He’s allowed eight home runs and 13 barrels (13.4%) over his last six. About the only thing that remains positive is that he’s not walking anybody (4.8%). Non-FIP estimators (14.5 HR/FB) are all more than a run below his 5.57 ERA, but a 3.81 xERA is the only one below four. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Aaron Judge (166 wRC+, .283 ISO) is the second best projected bat on the board (Jose Ramirez is first) with Giancarlo Stanton (137 wRC+, .251 ISO), while Anthony Rizzo (109 wRC+, .220 ISO) also merits a top 10 projection with the smaller slate on FanDuel. No other projected lineup includes more than one top 10 projected bat, even on such a small slate, especially with Shohei Ohtani unavailable as a batter tonight.
Great Matchups Enhance Lower Priced Pitching
If you’re considering paying down for pitching tonight (less than $9K), it’s probably in your secondary spot on DraftKings, as most of the top projected values on tonight’s board are also the top projected arms overall and also the highest priced. The one exception is…gulp…Kris Bubic. One-third of Bubic’s starts have lasted less than an inning, just to give an illustration how his season is going. He’s walked one more than he’s struck out (-1.1 K-BB%) with 15.6% of his contact being barreled and one-quarter of his fly balls leaving the park. He is coming off five shutout innings of the Astros, but walked as many as he struck out (three each) with two barrels. What makes him a top three projected value (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change) is the fact that the Orioles have been incredibly atrocious against LHP (86 wRC+, 25.8 K%) and Bubic costs less than $6K on either site. It’s still going to take a strong stomach to roster him, especially FanDuel.
Players could also consider Bubic’s opponent, Jordan Lyles, in their SP2 spot on DraftKings for just $6.1K. Lyles has allowed 23 runs over his last 36 innings, but only 18 earned. Add in a .351 BABIP and his 4.50 ERA for the season is above all estimators except for a 5.10 ERA with 9.2% Barrels/BBE. Striking out just six of his last 45 has dropped his strikeout rate to 19.9% (9.6 SwStr%), but a 12.9 K-BB% is competent enough for the Orioles to let him eat up innings for a team going nowhere with a lot of younger arms they’d rather conserve and the matchup is fine (Royals 91 wRC+, 21.3 K%, 7.1 HR/FB vs RHP).
Lastly, Konnor Pilkington has emerged out of relative obscurity (35+ FV grade Fangraphs) to strikeout 23 of the first 79 batters he’s faced in the majors with a 15.3 SwStr%. He’s also walked 10 and allowed five barrels (10.9%), but he’d likely have a much higher prospect grade without these flaws. Pilkington struck out just 11 of 63 AAA batters this year, though with a 12.4 SwStr%. He hasn’t allowed a home run yet, but non-FIP estimators hover around four, contact neutral ones a bit below. Perhaps he’s not all that good, but he’s also facing the A’s tonight (91 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs LHP), who have a team 40 wRC+ with a 27.2 K% and 0.0 HR/FB over the last seven days.
At Least Nine Ks in Six of Last Eight Starts
Thursday night offers either a five (DraftKings) or six (FanDuel) game slate where the only $10K pitcher on either site is the only $10K pitcher on both sites in Gerrit Cole, who has struck out at least nine in six of his last eight starts, allowing more than two runs just twice in that span as well with a good portion of his contact on the ground (47.7%) and just an 87.6 mph EV. On the season, his 2.78 ERA is above, but within one-fifth of a run of all his estimators. The Twins have a 116 wRC+ at home, 113 wRC+ (23.8 K%) vs RHP and 147 wRC+ over the last seven days with some of the hitter friendliest weather on the slate along with a potentially hitter friendly umpire. Regardless, Cole is the top projected pitcher on the slate by PlateIQ, although projections are subject to change, and one of the better projected values, though not by a wide margin. For more on tonight’s top pitchers, including the one who’s simply too cheap on one site, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.