DFS Alerts

Kyle Farmer scratched Wednesday

Kyle Farmer scratched Wednesday

Tonight's Top Offenses Should Be Loaded with Value

Not only does a hot and humid Wrigley with 20 mph winds blowing out produce some of tonight’s top projected bats overall, it also generates several top value projections, as pricing isn’t able to take weather into consideration. In fact, four of the top six projected values on FanDuel come from the home team side in Yan Gomes (118 wRC+, .213 ISO), Frank Schwindel (145 wRC+, .273 ISO vs LHP since 2021), Willson Contreras (two home runs last night, 171 wRC+, .337 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Patrick Wisdom (126 wRC+, .273 ISO). The latter two double as top overall projected bats against the returning Ryan Weathers (5.0 K-BB% at AAA), against whom RHBs had a .367 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) last year. Jason Heyward (53 wRC+), costing the minimum, joins Schwindel and Wisdom as top projected values on DraftKings, all costing $3.5K or less.

A trio from the visiting side all project as top 10 values against Caleb Kilian, who is 11 days removed from a major league debut in which he struck out six of 19 Cardinals with a 54.5 GB% and an 81.5 mph EV. The newly turned 25 year-old with a 45 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) has registered a 16.9 K-BB% over 43 AAA innings, his lowest K-BB rate at any level of minor league play. Nomar Mazara (115 wRC+ since being called up), Eric Hosmer (108 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) and Trent Grisham (91 wRC+, .155 ISO) all cost $2.6K or less on DK.

FanDuel projections suggest supplementing your Toronto stacks with Teoscar Hernandez (198 wRC+, .338 ISO) and Alejandro Kirk (146 wRC+, .213 ISO) for less than $3K against Bruce Zimmermann (RHBs .364 wOBA (.390 xwOBA) since last year. This should allow players to stack the entire first half of the Toronto lineup, which is second on the board to only the Cubs, at 6.16 implied runs.

Pair of Teammates Among Top Projected Bats for Third Consecutive Day

Yesterday may have been one of the most hitter friendly slates of the season up until that point, but Wednesday night’s nine game slate blows it out of the water with no fewer than four offenses reaching six implied runs, due to Coors and Wrigley winds again, while four more have team run totals exceeding 5.25 and one more above four and a half. Two pairs of teammates project as top 10 bats on both sites tonight, coming from the two highest run totals on the board. WIllson Contreras (two home runs last night, 171 wRC+, .337 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the second best projected bat on the board and Patrick Wisdom (126 wRC+, .273 ISO) is seventh, while both are also top 10 projected values on FanDuel (Wisdom is on DraftKings as well). Ryan Weathers struggled enough in his rookie season (10.5 K-BB%, 8.4% Barrels/BBE) over 94.2 innings that the Padres have declined to bring him back to the big leagues up until this point in the 2022 season. Still a decently regarded prospect (45+ FV Fangraphs), Weathers has produced just a 5.0 K-BB% over 54.1 AAA innings this year, which doesn’t exactly merit the promotion. Projection systems generate an ERA and estimators around five and RHBs had a .367 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) against him last year. Add in that the hitting conditions are expected to be superior to yesterday at Wrigley and he may wish he had stayed at AAA.

For the third consecutive day this week, both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (158 wRC+, .257 ISO) and George Springer (161 wRC+, .265 ISO) project as top of the board bats against vulnerable Baltimore pitching. Tonight’s victim is Bruce Zimmermann. After correcting a self-proclaimed issue with tipping pitches, he allowed seven runs to the Royals, striking out two or fewer for the fifth time in six starts. Excellent control (4.2 BB%) still affords him a double digit K-BB% with just a 16.6 K%, but combining that with 13.5% Barrels/BBE generates a 6.44 xERA. RHBs have a .364 wOBA (.390 xwOBA) against him since last year and that’s incredibly troubling against an offense than has the ability to line up entirely right-handed.

In addition, a pair or Rockies (6.0 team total) project as top 10 bats on FanDuel, while a pair of Dodgers (5.28) also do so on DraftKings with minor differences in scoring. Connor Joe (133 wRC+, .182 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and C.J. Cron (128 wRC+, .164 ISO) take aim at Konnor Pilkington at Coors. In a starting role, he has struck out 20 of 85 batters with an impressive 13.3 SwStr%, but with problems all over the rest of his profile, including 13 walks and six barrels (11.8%). In a small sample, RHBs have a .303 wOBA, but .366 xwOBA against him. Another Coors bat, Jose Ramirez (129 wRC+, .237 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board by the way. Mookie Betts (138 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Trea Turner (175 wRC+, .276 ISO) take aim at BABIP wizard Reid Detmers (.194), whom RHBs still have a .324 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against in his career.

Top Projected Value on the Board for Less than $8K

The top projected point per dollar value on either site by PlateIQ tonight (projections are fluid and subject to change) costs less than $8K. Spencer Strider has struck out 20 of 60 batters over three starts with exactly half his contact on the ground and an 85.2 mph EV. The lone issue, as it was out of the bullpen, is control (eight walks). He was up to 92 pitches last time out with just one walk, but that still couldn’t get him through six innings. Even with the double digit walk rate, Strider still owns a 24.5 K-BB% on the season without an estimator that reaches three. The Nationals have a 98 wRC+ with just a 20 K% vs RHP, but that’s baked into the price. You’re getting 30% strikeout upside for less than $8K, which makes Strider tonight’s top projected value and probably the only arm you want to consider dipping below $8.5K on FanDuel for.

There are, however, a couple of sub-$7K SP2 options on DraftKings tonight. Josh Winckowski struck out four of 18 Orioles in his only start and major league action of the season and his career about two and a half weeks ago. He also walked three with one of his four fly balls and two barrels (18.2%) leaving the yard, while averaging a 97.4 mph EV. The 23 year-old is a marginally regarded prospect (40 FV Fangraphs), who has impressed with a 20+ K-BB% over 54.2 AAA innings since last season and has a great matchup (A’s 74 wRC+, 23.9 K% vs RHP) in a difficult park, but Weather Edge currently suggests conditions could be slightly more pitcher friendly than usual.

Roansy Contreras has struck out 23 of 86 batters over four starts, but has yet to complete six innings, even though the Pirates have allowed him to throw as many as 98 pitches. The contact profile is a bit undesirable with just a 37.5 GB% and 92 mph EV as a starter, resulting in seven barrels (12.3%) and a higher BABIP .327 with just two of them leaving the yard. It’s hard to find many complaints in a young prospect with a 3.73 xERA and no other estimator above three and a half because the strikeouts and walks are a lot stickier than the contact. If you’re rostering Contreras, it’s more on his merit than the matchup. The Cardinals own a 105 wRC+ and 19.3 K% vs RHP, while conditions are projected to be sweltering in St Louis. However, Contreras is $6.9K and may not be this cheap for much longer.

Difficult Matchups for Tonight's Most Expensive Arms

A nine game Wednesday night slate offers two $10K pitchers on both sites with Nestor Cortes missing being the third by just $100 on DraftKings. Unfortunately, the two most expensive pitchers on the board, Shane McClanahan and Corbin Burnes, have extremely difficult matchups in New York. McClanahan costs $500 more than Burnes on DraftKings, just $200 more on FanDuel. The best way of relating how good McClanahan has been is that the Rays are allowing to go through lineups a third time regularly. He has six straight Quality Starts, facing fewer than 24 batters just once in that span and has failed to strike out at least seven batters just once this year. His 35.5 K% and 77.6 Z-Contact% both top the board among those with more than three starts. With a 30.8 K-BB%, all estimators are less than two and a half. However, the matchup (Yankees 127 wRC+ and 16.7 HR/FB at home, 118 wRC+ and 17.3 HR/FB vs LHP) is incredibly dangerous, though there may be some strikeouts (23.5% vs LHP). McClanahan is essentially in a tie for tonight’s second best pitcher projection by PlateIQ, though this is a fluid situation, which is subject to change. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitchers, including the top projected arm plus a great projected value or two, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

J.P. Crawford scratched Tuesday

J.P. Crawford scratched Tuesday

This Stack is Projected to Smash Against Pitcher with 10 Barrels Allowed Last Three Starts

It’s an interesting slate on Tuesday, favoring hitters, with half the board (14 teams) above four and a half implied runs and half of those teams (seven) with at least a 5.25 run team total, while the Cleveland Guardians separate slightly at Coors with a 6.18 run team total, nearly four-tenths of a run removed from any other offense. Current stacking projections, which are fluid and subject to change, suggest this may make Cleveland the most popular stack on DraftKings tonight (12.13%), but not too far ahead of San Diego (10.5%) with great conditions (weather, umpire) at Wrigley. The Toronto Blue Jays are the only stack that projects for double digit ownership on FanDuel right now, against the struggling Jordan Lyles, who has allowed 10 barrels over his last 14.1 innings. Although no team gets to a double digit Smash%, the Blue Jays are also the offense that smashes the slate most often in simulations.

Some of these numbers could change as weather conditions are updated and reconsidered. Something less likely to change, at least drastically, are the value projections because pricing is not going to change and the conditions at Wrigley were not a consideration when this slate was priced. Sure, Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado cost more than $5K, but no other Padres in the projected lineup exceeds $4K on DraftKings, while the White Sox are the only double digit Value% on FanDuel against Drew Hutchison and the Detroit bullpen. With all this talk about weather conditions, it’s actually a few good offenses under normal expected conditions that really stand out in terms of ratings. Read today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out more.

Hitter Friendly Conditions Project Lots of Great Value

While top of the board bats may not necessarily come from the parks with the best hitting conditions tonight, it’s certainly the case that bats weren’t priced according to the weather we’re expecting at Wrigley tonight. To quote Kevin’s early forecast “hot, humid, winds out to left-center at 10-15 mph” and a hitter friendly umpire to cap it all off. As if Kyle Hendricks didn’t already have enough problems this season. More than half (20) of his 34 strikeouts came in just three starts. He’s struck out two or fewer in six of his last eight starts, including just one in each of his last two. A 14.8 K-BB% probably isn’t going to cut it tonight, even with a decent control (7.6 BB%) and contact management (87.7 mph EV). All estimators are within half a run of his 5.22 ERA. RHBs have been average against Hendricks since last year (.312 wOBA, .315 xwOBA), while LHBs have destroyed him (.385 wOBA, .382 xwOBA). PlateIQ projections see tremendous value in affordable San Diego LHBs on either site. In fact, Nomar Mazara (81 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) and Eric Hosmer (108 wRC+) are the top two projected values on DraftKings and also top 10 projected values on FanDuel for $2.6K or less, though weather may not be able to do much with all the ground balls Hosmer hits. At the same cost, Trent Grisham (91 wRC+) also projects as a top DraftKings value, while RHB Jorge Alfaro (70 wRC+) projects as a top FanDuel value for the minimum ($2K). Conditions should be favorable enough to overcome these hitters’ struggles against RHP over the last couple of seasons.

The weather may not be nearly as friendly in Detroit and, in fact, it’s a pitcher friendly umpire behind the plate, but projections still like the value in visiting team bats against Drew Hutchison and the Detroit bullpen. RHBs have a .319 wOBA, but.397 xwOBA against Hutchison since last year, which is bad news against a predominantly right-handed lineup. On the other hand, the Detroit bullpen has pretty good over the last 30 days (3.12 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 3.23 SIERA), though the White Sox won’t necessarily be seeing the front of it in the middle of the game. Adam Engel (115 wRC+, .168 ISO) and Josh Harrison (91 wRC+) are players who project as great values on both sites for $2.3K or less, while A.J. Pollock (116 wRC+, .191 ISO) costs $2.6K on FanDuel.

Top Projected Bats Not Necessarily From the Top Spots on the Board

Today’s only second full 15 game slate of the season is also one of the hitter friendliest slates of the year, as we find seven offenses at 5.25 implied runs or above, led by the Guardians (6.18) at Coors, and then seven more above a four and a half run team total. That’s half the board. The end result is that only two teams place a pair of teammates among the top 10 projected bats by PlateIQ today (although projections are fluid and subject to change). Both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (156 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and George Springer (136 wRC+, .273 ISO) are among the top 10 projected hitters for the second straight day, as they look to punish Baltimore pitching again. Over his last three starts, Jordan Lyles has wiped out much of the good will he spent his first nine starts earning (14.1 K-BB%). He’s struck out just seven of 72 batters with six walks, allowing 14 runs over 14.1 innings. Sure, there’s a .421 BABIP and 61.6 LOB%, but just two of his 10 barrels (16.9%) have left the yard over this span. He’s been getting tattooed. His best season estimator is now a 4.25 xFIP and batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. It’s difficult to find a Toronto batter who may project poorly here, but Guerrero Jr. and Springer are the cream of the crop for the offense with the sixth highest implied run line on the slate (5.41).

Aaron Judge (168 wRC+, .290 ISO) is the second best projected hitter on the slate and is joined in the top 10 by Giancarlo Stanton (136 wRC+, .254 ISO), despite the Yankees being only 10th on the board with a 4.82 run team total in Tampa Bay tonight. The Rays have been keeping Corey Kluber healthy and efficient on lower pitch counts (more than 80 just three times) and even with those restrictions, he still has Quality Starts in five of his last eight starts. Why? Because four of his nine walks came in his first start of the season. Over this eight start span, Kluber has a 21.3 K-BB% with an 86.5 mph EV and just seven barrels (6.0%) allowed. On the season, estimators range from a 3.59 SIERA to a 4.30 xERA with his 3.88 ERA right in the middle. The Rays have also maintained a strong bullpen (3.28 FIP last 30 days), despite tons of injuries, but RHBs do own a .340 wOBA and .342 xwOBA against Kluber since last year and these two monsters have been smashing just about every pitcher they’ve faced this year. It’s a bit odd that Coors and Wrigley bats aren’t dominating the projections (though Jose Ramirez is the top projected bat on the slate and Manny Machado is among the top 10), but this is a very large slate with lots of great offensive choices.

Some of the Top Projected Values on Tuesday Come from the Middle of the Board

With some higher priced pitchers potentially over-priced or pitching in difficult conditions (Coors, Wrigley), some of the best projected point per dollar values on the board, come from the middle of the board tonight. For example, the top projected point per dollar value on FanDuel costs just $7.3K. The schedule eased up for Yusei Kikuchi over the last month and the performance has improved. The biggest difference is a 15.1 K-BB% over his last five that’s much better than the 6.5 K-BB% over his first six, though he’s still allowed seven barrels (12.5%) with a 91.6 mph EV and has also retained an ERA with estimators above four. For the season, a 5.51 xERA is the only estimator not within one-third of a run of his 4.44 ERA. He also has a favorable matchup in a nearly neutral and maybe even slightly negative run environment in Toronto. The Orioles have an 89 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs LHP this year. Kikuchi is also a top three projected value on DraftKings at exactly $8K.

Another top three point per dollar projection on both sites belongs to Dylan Cease, who exceeds $9K on FanDuel, but is just $8.8K on DraftKings. Cease has walked 14 of his last 71 batters to drive his season rate up to 12.1%, which is simply too high. In fact, he’s failed to complete five innings in four of his last six starts. He’s still striking out a ton of batters (32.7%), though lower over the last month (27%) with the same 15 SwStr%, but running his pitch counts up early. One saving grace is that only 32.9% of his contact has been at an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher, which gives him a 2.84 xERA that’s still below his 3.14 ERA, though contact neutral estimators are a bit higher (3.40 SIERA). Normally, that might scare you, but tonight, Cease is pitching in Detroit. The Tigers own board lows 67 wRC+, 6.5 BB% and 6.9 HR/FB vs RHP, along with a 24.7 K%. If the Tigers refuse to take walks, the ceiling for Cease could be sky high.

Nick Pivetta, Trevor Rogers, Tyler Mahle and Chris Bassitt are also strong projected values on either site with only Pivetta’s price tag on FanDuel exceeding $9K. He still gets hit hard on occasion. The Angels connected for three barrels in his last start, but he also struck out a season high 11 of them and has a 20.9 K-BB% with just three home runs over his last nine starts. Fenway is a difficult park to pitch in, but the A’s own a 75 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs RHP. While Rogers has struck out more than five just once this season, his three highest strikeout totals have come over his last five starts, but even that only gets him up to a 21.7 K% over the last 30 days. With a well below average 9.8 K-BB% and a bit worse than average 8.9% Barrels/BBE, all estimators are above four and a half, even if not as high as his 5.58 ERA. He’s in a difficult spot in Philly against an offense with a 111 wRC+ and 13.7 HR/FB vs LHP, but with the Phillies also owning a 24.6 K% vs LHP, the price may be too low.

Mahle struck out a season high 10 Diamondbacks last time out and at least six in six of his last seven starts after reaching that mark just once in his first six. He also has Quality Starts in five of his last six with an 87.4 mph EV. With a 25.8 K% and just 6.6% Barrels/BBE, the biggest issue is a 10.5 BB%, but even then, all estimators are more than a run below his 5.07 ERA (63.6 LOB%). He’s facing the Diamondbacks again (93 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP), this time in a more pitcher friendly park in Arizona. Ironically, Bassitt’s velocity has been steadily increasing, as he’s allowed 24 runs (22 earned) over his last 26 innings, including seven home runs and eight barrels (9.8%). He’s walking more batters (9.1%), while retaining an above average strikeout rate (23.1%), but with a lower swinging strike rate (9.3%). He’s also a bit unfortunate that almost every barrel has left the yard (21.9 HR/FB), while stranding just 55.9% of runners over this span. Thankfully, the HR and strand rate issues are generally correctable for someone who doesn’t have a history of such issues. The Brewers have a 102 wRC+, but 23.6 K% vs RHP and Citi Field is one of the best pitching environments on the slate.

Coming off Career Worst Start, This is Still the Top Pitcher on a Full Board

After taking more than two months for the first full 15 game slate of the season to arrive, the second one comes at us less than a week later. With 30 pitchers on the board, just two (Gerrit Cole and Max Fried) exceed $10K on both sites, while two more reach that mark on FanDuel only (Logan Gilbert and Sean Manaea). In addition, Logan Webb, Shane Bieber and Tony Gonsolin each cost more than $9K on both sites. That’s a lot of pitching to cover, so let’s start at the top. Cole is the most expensive arm on DraftKings ($10.5K) and just $100 less on FanDuel. He allowed a career high five home runs to just 17 Twins faced in his last start. All he’d done before that was strike out at least nine in six of his previous eight starts with seven Quality Starts. He’s up to a 17.7 HR/FB with 11 of his 15 barrels (8.7%) going for home runs now. Not all of his home runs in his last start were barrels (four). With an elite 24.5 K-BB% and 15.2 SwStr%, all non-FIP estimators are much lower than his 3.63 ERA with a 3.21 xERA being the only one above three. We have to treat this like a blip on the radar for now. Tampa Bay is a park upgrade with a favorable matchup (95 wRC+, 24.7 K% vs RHP). Although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day, Cole is currently the top projected pitcher on either site and top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings by a decent margin. As one might imagine, his ownership projections for a full slate are fairly impressive at this point in time. The easy and maybe even the smart thing to do may be just to plug in Cole and forget about it, but GPP players need to differentiate somewhere. Are there any strong pivots among the other high priced arms? Check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Game Update: Padres-Cubs expected to start at 9:30 PM ET on Monday

Josiah Gray scratched Monday, Erasmo Ramirez will now start for the Nationals

Josiah Gray scratched Monday, Erasmo Ramirez will now start for the Nationals

Game Update: Braves-Nationals expected to start at 8:35 PM ET on Monday

Aristides Aquino scratched Monday

Aristides Aquino scratched Monday