DFS Alerts
Tyler Anderson has a 16.3 K-BB% and 53.4 GB% with a 1.9 Hard-Soft%, retaining most of that profile at home
Tyler Anderson has a 16.3 K-BB% and 53.4 GB% with a 1.9 Hard-Soft% making up an astounding profile that’s even more incredible when you consider that he retains just about all of it at home. The Giants have just a 9.7 K-BB% vs LHP, but have been such a bad road offense (82 wRC+) that a Coors bump may not even be that scary when considering their 25.1 Hard% and 3.5 HR/FB with just a 27 wRC+ over the last week. They were shut out by a lesser pitcher in that park yesterday. The Giants were for 5.2 runs, the second highest total on the board, but that may have been too high. It may come down with Belt, Span and Panik out of the lineup, even though LHBs have just a .253 wOBA against Anderson. RHBs have only hit him at an average pace (.319 wOBA, 29.2 Hard%) and that’s not park adjusted. Meanwhile, it’s not as if the Giants are replacing those LHBs with incredibly potent RHBs. There’s still some interest in Pence (118 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Posey (137 wRC+, .186 ISO vs LHP since 2015), but Tyler Anderson is very interesting for $7.1K or less.
Other tagged players: Buster Posey, Hunter Pence
Jeff Samardzija brings his road troubles to Coors Field in biggest park downgrade possible
The Rockies are the clear top offense on tonight’s slate as they face off against Jeff Samardzija at Coors Field. Samardzija has also struggled on the road this season and is just an average at best pitcher now with an 18.2% strikeout rate and 4.38 SIERA. The Rockies left-handed outfielders are the top plays here given the 16.0% strikeout rate to left-handed batters and no significant lean towards ground balls or fly balls for Samardzija. His strikeouts to right-handed batters are an average 20.3% and he slightly raises his ground balls to 49.4%, but this is not enough to concern us with hitters like Nolan Arenado (130 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .297 ISO vs RHP) and D.J. LeMahieu (124 wRC+, .386 wOBA vs RHP). Carlos Gonzalez (118 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .217 ISO vs RHP), David Dahl (125 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .255 ISO vs RHP), Daniel Descalso (105 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .161 ISO vs RHP) are the top options. Raimel Tapia finds himself back at the top of the lineup tonight and his speed and contact skills put him firmly in play as a part of Colorado stacks or as a value play in cash games.
Other tagged players: David Dahl, Raimel Tapia, Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Descalso, Jeff Samardzija
Jason Hammel is projected to be today's most popular pitcher on either site
Jason Hammel has a league average 20.5 K% with a 3.14 ERA and is facing an offense with a 25.7 K% vs RHP, so it’s no surprise that our Projected Ownership page has him as the most popular pitcher on either site for less than $9K. He’s certainly deserving of serious consideration, but there are certainly reasons to consider fading him with this type of ownership as well.. A 79.8% strand rate has his estimators a run above his estimators and while he’s striking out batters at an average rate, he’s walking them at an average rate too. The Brewers may strike out a ton, but they also have a 10% walk rate and 16.5 HR/FB at home with each of those marks only a bit lower vs RHP. Players not in on Hammel can certainly take a look at Kirk Nieuwenhuis (98 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bumped up to the two spot. He costs just $2.4K on FanDuel and LHBs have a 33.5 Hard% against Hammel since last season.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Kirk Nieuwenhuis Kepler could be a great pivot in GPPs, as the masses gravitate to Dozier for Twins exposure
Brian Dozier (132 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .276 ISO vs RHP) has eight home runs in his last seven games, and that seems pretty decent for daily fantasy purposes. Hot streaks are always difficult to quantify and typically aren’t a reliable source for predictive outcomes, but Dozier has proven himself to be a legit power hitter at the major league level over an extended period of time in the past. Even if he weren’t red hot right now, it would be more than viable to use him in tournaments against Dillon Gee (4.36 SIERA) who is nothing more than an average pitcher and is surrendering 1.82 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season. Be sure to check the RotoGrinders Projected Ownership page to ensure that the expected Dozier ownership doesn’t creep towards fade-worthy levels in tournaments. We also shouldn’t mind using Max Kepler (122 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .257 ISO vs RHP) tonight, as he has the power upside to pay dividends in tournaments as a one off.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Dillon Gee Three Tigers have a 200+ wRC+ over the last week and two hit same handed pitching extremely well
Miguel Gonzalez struck out seven of 24 in a rehab start, but also allowed two HRs and hasn’t pitched in the majors in nearly a month. He has no real platoon split which favors a predominantly RH lineup for the Tigers. We’re looking at two strong bats and one hot one for Detroit. Miguel Cabrera (155 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and J.D. Martinez (144 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP since 2015) pummel same handed pitching and have a 200+ wRC+ over the last week. Justin Upton (115 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP since 2015) also has a 207 wRC+ over the last week (44.4 Hard%) and costs just $2.9K on FanDuel. Jarrod Saltalmacchia (90 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is surprisingly the next most powerful bat against RHP in this lineup and costs just $2.3K behind the plate on FanDuel. Ian Kinlser remains out of the lineup.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Justin Upton, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Miguel Gonzalez Luis Cessa has a 15.2 K% this season, in a tough spot against offense with 15.6 HR/FB vs RHP
Luis Cessa has a 10.9 SwStr% since being inserted through the rotation, but has only been above average in one of his three starts. He has just a 15.2 K% combined from rotation and bullpen and faces a powerful offense (15.1 HR/FB on the road, 15.6 HR/FB vs RHP) in a park that may not be a highly positive run environment overall, but plays to their high power skillset. Cessa has split his nine HRs pretty evenly between RH and LH batters, though LHBs have a much higher 37.5 Hard% against him. The Blue Jays are costly and don’t have a LHBs in the top five. Josh Donaldson (153 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP since last season) is a top 3B option most nights, but with a 4.7 run projection sitting closer to the middle of the board than the top and some lingering and unpredictable wind effects left over from Hurrican Hermine potentially hanging around Yankee Stadium tonight (check Kevin’s update later), there are reasons to consider fading Toronto bats tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Luis Cessa Reverse line movement favors Weaver, as the Pirates implied run total has dropped to 4.0
It’s extremely surprising that the salary of Luke Weaver is still so manageable, especially on DraftKings where he is just $4.7K, coming off of two excellent starts with seven or more strikeouts in each. We can’t put too much stock into a 29.2% strikeout rate after just 21 innings in the big leagues, especially with his best performance coming against the Brewers, but his minor league numbers combined with what he’s done so far certainly look like they are worth more than his price tag around the industry tonight. It’s clearly a difficult jump from AA to the majors, but Weaver still had a 28.6% strikeout rate with just a 3.3% walk rate in 77 innings at AA this season. The Pirates are a better team than the opponents he’s faced in his last three outings, but they are still far from elite, and PNC Park is a great pitchers’ ballpark. We still have to assume a good amount of risk with a pitcher this inexperienced, but given the price tag, the risk is more than worth taking in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Kris Bryant OUT of the lineup against Wily Peralta tonight
Wily Peralta has been a more interesting pitcher since returning to the majors last month. He’s still allowing hard contact a third of the time, but has a 22.9 K% with a 51.3 GB%, though also an 84.5 LOB%. He’s not in a spot where players would seriously consider using him against an offense the caliber of the Cubs in this park, even with Kris Bryant missing. LHBs have hit the ball hard 36.3% of the time against Peralta since last season and Tommy La Stella (119 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP since 2015) immediately becomes the top value play on the board for the minimum cost on FanDuel. Miguel Montero (97 wRC+, .148 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top value catcher for $300 more as well, along with Jorge Soler (99 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in the OF at the same cost. Anthony Rizzo (149 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top overall bat and tonight’s BvP champion with five career HRs and eight extra-base hits total (33 PAs) against Peralta.
Other tagged players: Tommy La Stella, Miguel Montero, Miguel Montero Jake Odorizzi is a significant reverse splits pitcher, owning just a 10.3% K-BB% to RHB
Jake Odorizzi is an above-average pitcher, but he has always had a home run issue throughout his career, especially to right-handed batters (1.34 HR/9). His good strikeout rate (22.0%) and walk rate (7.1%), along with significant fly balls (44.8%) in a pitchers park make Odorizzi difficult to stack against, but this Orioles squad is loaded with all kinds of power, and is certainly a spot to look for one off home runs in tournaments. Mark Trumbo (.294 ISO vs RHP) is the top choice, followed by Manny Machado (.269 ISO vs RHP) and Adam Jones (.201 ISO vs RHP). Despite the reverse power splits for Odorizzi, Chris Davis (.278 ISO vs RHP) and Pedro Alvarez (.271 ISO vs RHP) have such massive power upside that they are always in play.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Jake Odorizzi Corey Kluber struck out a season high 11 in his last start and has now gone at least six innings in 23 of his last 26 starts
Corey Kluber struck out a season high 11 in his last start and has now gone at least six innings in 23 of his last 26 starts. He had struck out either seven or eight in 11 of 14 starts going into his last one, so while that kind of floor is incredible, it’s great to see him improve on the ceiling a bit. His 19.6 K-BB% is 11th in the majors and his strikeout rate is nearly four points above the next closest pitcher on today’s board with more than a few starts this season. There’s no question he’s tonight’s top arm and although he’s facing a dangerous offense with some power, the Astros do have a 23.9 K% vs RHP. RHBs have a .249 wOBA against him since last season and the Astros have all three of their mediocre LHBs at the bottom of the lineup. With a run projection right around 3.5 runs tonight, this is really the last pitcher daily fantasy players should want to attack tonight. Only Jason Hammel is expected to be as highly owned on Kluber on either site according to our Projected Ownership page though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Yovani Gallardo is surrendering 1.54 HR/9 to LHB despite limiting hard contact
Simply put, Yovani Gallardo is not good anymore. He has a 5.56 SIERA accompanied by a 14.9% strikeout rate, 11.9% walk rate and the only aspect of his skill set that even resembles a skill is that he has allowed a hard hit rate below league average (27.7%). Against right-handed batters, Gallardo has done enough to get by with a decent 47.6% ground ball rate, but against lefties, he is allowing a 42.6% fly ball rate, to go along with low strikeouts (17.4%) and high walks (15.3%). The top play for Tampa Bay would be Brad Miller with his .269 ISO and 36.7% hard hits against right-handed pitching. Kevin Kiermaier gets the nod at the two-spot in the order, and is a decent option in cash games, or part of a Rays stack. Corey Dickerson (.251 ISO vs RHP) is a one off power option in tournaments, and while lefties are the priority here, Logan Forsythe (123 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .178 ISO) and Evan Longoria (137 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .268 ISO) hit right-handed pitching well enough to be included in a stack.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Kevin Kiermaier, Corey Dickerson, Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Yovani Gallardo Cleveland bats priced for Kuechel on DraftKings, get a Peacock instead
Brad Peacock has a career 8.7 K-BB% and while he misses enough bats, a double digit walk rate has him sporting an ERA with estimators above four in a half. His hard contact rate has been at least 31% each of the last four years in the majors, while LHBs have slammed him for a .360 wOBA and 34.2 Hard%. That’s bad news facing a Cleveland lineup with seven LHBs in a park where they have a 122 wRC+ this season. A Cleveland stack is certainly in order with a projection of five runs, especially on DraftKings, where they are priced for Dallas Kuechel, who was originally supposed to start this game. Not a single bat is more than $4.2K. Tyler Naquin (148 wRC+, .267 ISO) has been the most potent against RHP this season, but continues to bat down in the order. The top five in the order all have a wRC+ above 110 against RHP this year with Santana, Kipnis and Napoli all adding an ISO above .200.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Tyler Naquin, Brad Peacock Williams Perez has no upside (4.3 K-BB%), but keeps RHBs on the ground 60% of the time (25% hard contact)
Williams Perez returns to the majors with a career 4.3 K-BB% in 165 innings, but keeps RHBs on the ground 60% of the time with a 25% hard hit rate, so we’re only really looking at three Nationals, all high priced in Harper (129 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP this year) and Murphy (161 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP this season) from the left side (LHBs .369 wOBA, 32.6 Hard% vs Perez). Both have homered against Perez. From the right side. Trea Turner (149 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP), who has some speed atop the lineup and is less affected by the high ground ball rate. The Nationals do have the second highest run projection (5.1) outside of Coors tonight. Pulling value out of the bats we expect to do the damage though, might get a bit tricky.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper Braves are currently tied for the second-lowest implied run total on the slate (3.6)
Gio Gonzalez has actually been somewhat consistent since the All-Star Break, primarily due to a manageable 6.4% walk rate in his last nine starts accompanied by a 20.8% strikeout rate. These are not metrics we typically expect from Gonzalez, as his reputation is that of a wild but higher strikeout pitcher. The strikeouts are always nice, but as long as he’s hovering around average, we would much prefer him to limit the walks. This is especially the case against a team like the Braves that will have a difficult time stringing together a series of consecutive hits, as they rank 28th in the league in wOBA against left-handed pitching. The fact that Gonzalez is a heavy home favorite against a weak offense on a full slate like this makes him a solid option in all formats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Brandon Finnegan has struck out 29 of last 72 batters with increased usage of secondary pitches
Brandon Finnegan suddenly presents an interesting dilemma. Do players buy into striking out 29 of his last 72 batters or his previous season stats with a high walk rate and tons of hard contact (37.1%). More trust and usage of his secondary offering has led to more swings and misses over his last three starts, but a .248 BABIP still has his ERA 4.19 ERA over half run lower than his estimators. Are we really ready to pay $8.8K for Finnegan at home against a decent offense vs LHP (33.7 Hard%, 15.1 HR/FB), even if they do strike out 22% of the time. Usage of the new Fangraphs Splits Tool shows us that while RHBs do have a 40.1 Hard% with 26 HRs against him this season, that’s dropped significantly with just one HR over his last three starts. With that said, we still want to look at several Mets bats here, who can provide some value at reasonable prices in a small park. Cespedes, Flores, and Reyes all have a wRC+ above 180 with an ISO above .300 vs LHP this season. Reyes is obviously not that kind of batter from the right side, but there’s certainly some value in the other bats mashing lefties right now. Asdrubal Cabrera adds a red hot bat (243 wRC+ last seven days) to a 128 wRC+ and average power (.147 ISO) vs LHP this year. Travis D’arnaud has been terrible against LHP this season (40 wRC+, 0 ISO), but has a 171 wRC+ over the last week and costs just $2.3K on Fanduel.
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis d'Arnaud