DFS Alerts
Adam Morgan struggles with hard contact in the air, but gets a favorable park switch against ailing Marlins
Adam Morgan has struck out 13 of his last 48 batters with just two walks, but three HRs. A 0.92 GB/FB and 35.9 Hard% are the issues at hand here, but he gets a park upgrade in Miami against an offense with little power (88 wRC+, 9.7 HR/FB at home) and a 22.3 K% vs LHP. With Ozuna joining Stanton on the sidelines (or bench), Jeff Francoeur (.144 ISO) and Martin Prado (.152 ISO) become the power against LHP in this lineup. Don’t consider it an endorsement of Morgan as much as an indictment of the Marlins for a low cost. That said, there are a couple of bats worth a look here. RHBs have a .377 wOBA and 35.9 Hard% against Morgan in his career. This lowly lineup is still projected for 4.6 runs. Martin Prado still has a 202 wRC+ vs LHP despite the limited power this year and a 52.6 Hard% over the last week. He may be one of the top values at 3B on FanDuel ($3.1K). Destin Hood immediately becomes viable as a RHB in the second spot for $2.6K on either site without even having to know anything else about him (there’s not really anything interesting to know).
Other tagged players: Martin Prado, Destin Hood, Jeff Francoeur
Joey Votto is in a great spot against Rafael Montero to get some....walks?
Rafael Montero walked six in a spot start last week, but didn’t allow a run in five innings because the Marlins and has had similar control issues in the minor leagues, even being demoted to AA ball this season. He’s pitching only because the Mets are out of options with four starters down and LHBs have absolutely dominated him in his short major league career (.468 wOBA). The concern is that he may just walk three times, but that still gives you something and makes Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since 2015) a high floor cash play, as far as batters can have high floors. Case in point, he has a 178 wRC+ over the last week with just a 6.3 Hard%. Scott Schebler (101 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $3.6K on DraftKings and should see some RBI opportunities. Jose Peraza (90 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is a $2.7K leadoff bat on FanDuel, who should be able to run (14 SBs) on Mets pitching and D’arnaud if he gets on. He may lose some value if Rene Rivera is behind the plate though. .
Other tagged players: Scott Schebler, Jose Peraza Astros are surprisingly only implied to score 4.4 runs, however, team total is on the rise
Mike Clevinger has been pretty awful as a spot starter for the Indians this season, primarily because of his 12.7% walk rate. He is allowing hard contact over 31.4% of the time, and his SIERA and xFIP are 4.88 and 4.78, respectively. Clevinger has also exhibited significant reverse splits, with a 26.2% line drive rate, 34.4% ground ball rate, 39.3% fly ball rate, 17.7% strikeout rate, 34.4% hard hit rate, and .355 wOBA allowed versus right-handed batters. To make matters worse for Clevinger, the Astros are loaded with right-handed power bats putting them firmly in play as a stack in tournaments. Jose Altuve (156 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .211 ISO vs RHP), Carlos Correa (131 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .204 ISO vs RHP), George Springer (.177 ISO vs RHP), and Alex Bregman (.189 ISO vs RHP) are our primary targets here.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Mike Clevinger
Sale has induced ground balls just 37.0% of the time to RHB, strikeout rate also dips to 24.2%
Chris Sale has been purposely been pitching to contact this season, and it is reflected in his overall numbers. His strikeout rate is down to 25.2% from 32.1% a year ago, he is surrendering hard contact much more often (though he still has a decent 29.2% Hard%), and his SIERA is up more than a full run to 3.59. If not for a .270 BABIP, his overall advanced stats would be significantly worse. For comparison, the career BABIP allowed by Sale is .290. He has been pitching better of late, and he is two outings removed from a season-high 14 strikeout gem against the Mariners, but it’s tough to get on board with Sale today given his price tag and other pitchers priced around him with better park adjusted matchups.
As reported by: FanGraphs Indians fail to take advantage of Mike Fiers' reverse split with just two RHBs in lineup
Mike Fiers has been a bit better of late (22.6 K%, 4.18 ERA, 3.88 SIERA, 3.67 xFIP over the last month), but Cleveland is a place where daily fantasy players probably don’t want to use opposing pitchers at this point. The Tribe has a 123 wRC+ at home and just a 0.5 K-BB% over the last week. Terry Francona continues to hate the best bat vs RHP on the team as Tyler Naquin (148 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP) continues to bat eighth with new acquisition Coco Crisp (84 wRC+, .150 ISO vs RHP since 2015) batting a spot ahead of him today. Mike Napoli may be the most interesting bat here. He has a 111 wRC+ and .236 ISO vs RHP this season, facing a reverse split pitcher (.339 wOBA, 35.6 Hard% vs RHBs since 2015) and costs just $3.6K on DraftKings. Roberto Perez (48 wRC+ vs RHP this season) is the only other RHB in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Roberto Perez, Coco Crisp, Tyler Naquin, Mike Fiers Nationals have become a contrarian stack with Harper, Murphy, Werth, and Ramos all OUT
Ryan Weber is making his first start of the season for the Braves after 12 appearances out of the bullpen. He has been victimized by a .373 BABIP thus far, which is why his 3.66 SIERA looks so much better than his 5.24 ERA. A majority of this discrepancy stems from a small sample size, and we would expect both metrics to settle somewhere around the middle long-term. Weber surrenders hard contact 32.6% of the time, which is a concerning number considering it has been compiled solely in relief appearances. His line drive (20.0%) and fly ball rates (27.5%) increase significantly against left-handed batters, and lefties have also tagged him for a .460 wOBA this season. With the watered down lineup the Nationals have trotted out on Labor Day, this situation just screams stack or fade as a majority of the Nationals best individual hitters are missing from the lineup. However, Trea Turner (140 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .213 ISO vs RHP), Anthony Rendon (.184 ISO vs RHP), and Clint Robinson would be the best candidates to target. Expect the Nationals bats to get overlooked entirely with everyone focusing attention elsewhere.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon, Clint Robinson, Ryan Weber Buster Posey OUT at Coors against Chad Bettis
The Giants did have the day’s top run projection at 6.1 runs, as expected in Coors against a mediocre pitcher, but the absence of Buster Posey against a pitcher with a bit of a reverse split could affect that some. RHBs have a .351 wOBA and 33.6 Hard% against Chad Bettis since last season with LHBs a little less (.327 wOBA, 28.1 Hard%). That makes Hunter Pence (119 wRC+, .156 ISO vs RHP since 2015) today’s most interesting bat. He’s hit for virtually no power against RHP this season (.108 ISO), but has a 179 wRC+ and 50.0 Hard% over the last week. He does have a HR against Bettis in 11 PAs. He’s also the only Giant with a wRC+ above 77 over the last week. Though all bats are playable in this spot, it’s also a highly priced lineup with everyone aside from Trevor Brown (87 wRC+, .124 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has previously gone off in Coors in Posey’s place, checking in at a cost well above $4K on DraftKings/$3K on FanDuel. While projected strongly, it may be difficult to pull excess value out of these San Francisco bats.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Chad Bettis, Trevor Brown Rangers implied run total has decreased to 3.6 runs
Felix Hernandez may be one of the toughest pitchers to figure out this season. Sure, his surface numbers look decent, but his peripherals are less than stellar. The warning signs were there before his last outing, and Hernandez got hammered for six runs in just four innings by this same Rangers squad. His strikeout rate is all the way down to 20.3% this season, his walk rate is up to 10.1%, and owns a below-average 4.42 SIERA. Hernandez does get the perk of facing the Rangers at home in the rematch, but he has shown that he is nothing more than a league average pitcher at this stage of the season. There is plenty of risk in this spot for Hernandez, but he should ultimately pitch better than his last time out. Unfortunately, his price tag on both sites puts him virtually out of play given the difficult matchup. Though, we still shouldn’t be going out of our way to attack King Felix with Rangers hitters that are receiving a massive ballpark downgrade at Safeco Field.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Cole Hamels walked and struck out four Mariners each in last start after striking out 18 of previous 53
Cole Hamels followed up striking out 18 of 53 batters by walking and striking out four each of these Mariners last time because that’s just how inconsistent he is. While strikeouts and HRs have made it to his career rates through various ups and downs, it’s really the increased walk rate (9.0%) that’s an issue this year, but is being well hidden by an 81.8 LOB% that has kept his ERA a run below his estimators. With tremendous upside when pitching well and with a significant park upgrade, he’s still a pitcher to be considered tonight, but a $12.2K cost on Draftkings is dangerous against a team with a 16.4 HR/FB at home and 16.6 HR/FB vs LHP. The Mariners are projected for just 3.4 runs though. The two obvious bats to look at for Seattle are Franklin Gutierrrez (155 wRC+, .265 ISO vs LHP since 2015) at a cost of $3.1K or less on either site and Nelson Cruz (179 wRC+, .318 ISO vs LHP since 2015) who reasonably costs $4.2K or less on either site. He has a 97.2 mph aEV on seven batted balls against Hamels.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Cole Hamels, Nelson Cruz Five Angels have at least a 175 wRC+, 35.0 Hard% over the last week and face debuting rookie Alcantara
Raul Alcantara is a 23 year-old international signee, who makes his major league debut today. With just eight AAA starts under his belt, he hasn’t struck out many batters in his trip through the minors, but does have good control. He debuts against one of the hottest offenses in baseball with a 15.9 K% vs RHP. There’s always a higher level of unpredicability in a debuting pitcher, whose adrenaline is up, but the Angels have a team 166 wRC+ over the last week with a 23.2 HR/FB and never strike out. Mike Trout (174 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 401 wRC+ with a 58.8 Hard% over the last week and may be the top overall bat on the board. Cron (125 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Pujols (113 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Marte (91 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP since 2015) join him in the 200+ wRC+ and at least 35% hard hit club over the last week with Kole Calhoun (110 wRC+, .162 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) just misses the mark with a 175 wRC+ over the last seven days.
Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron, Jefry Marte, Kole Calhoun David Ortiz gets day off for favored Red Sox against Padres
With no DH, David Ortiz will sit as the Red Sox visit the Padres. Despite his absence, the Red Sox are solid favorites projected to put up nearly five runs. Drew Pomeranz has one of (if not the best) the best match ups of the day and has been great of late (2.64 ERA and 27% K rate over his last five starts) making him one of the top options of the slate. Mookie Betts is the top option as the Red Sox face Edwin Jackson. Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez round out players you should be looking at. Brock Holt bats second and is also worth considering when making your lineups on this Labor Day.
As reported by: Scott Lauber on Twitter Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Drew Pomeranz
Wainwright aims to take advantage of ballpark upgrade against scuffling Pirates offense
It has been a tumultuous season for Adam Wainwright (4.26 SIERA). Wainwright was fantastic in his last start, pitching a seven inning gem with seven strikeouts against the Brewers. He has also allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last three outings, so this may just be the start of another solid stretch for Wainwright. He doesn’t beat himself for walks (6.4%), which permits him to be successful when the BABIP lands in his favor. There isn’t a lot to like about his batted ball profile, but he does draw a matchup against the struggling Pirates (85 wRC+, .297 wOBA, .121 ISO last seven days). Wainwright is far from one of the top pitching options on the board but is definitely in consideration if trying to pay up a bit for bats. Starling Marte (125 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .157 ISO vs RHP) and Gregory Polanco (118 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .224 ISO vs RHP) are the only Pirates hitters worth taking a chance on, but we should be perfectly fine looking for offense elsewhere.
Other tagged players: Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco Matt Adams returns, Moss OUT in Pittsburgh against Chad Kuhl
A .262 BABIP has helped Chad Kuhl keep his ERA below four and a run below his estimators despite just a 9.6 K-BB%. Although this park destroys RHBs, LHBs have hit him very well so far (.345 wOBA, 34.6 Hard%). While there don’t appear to be any great bargains in this lineup, the LHBs have to be looked at and Matt Carpenter (151 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015) projects well in almost any spot against a RHP. Matt Adams (95 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) returns, but that’s probably a downgrade for this lineup forcing Brandon Moss to the bench. Hazelbaker (120 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP) and Wong (104 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) are both just above the minimum price on Fanduel.
Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Kolten Wong, Chad Kuhl Blackmon OUT at Coors against Matt Moore, but replaced with another LHB (Tapia)
Matt Moore followed up his near no-hitter against the Dodgers with another strong performance, striking out seven of 21 Diamondbacks with just one walk. Still, he brings merely league average strikeout and walk rates into a dangerous spot in Colorado, where the Rockies are projected for the second highest run total today (5.9). Moore has very little platoon split with RHBs (.320 wOBA) just 15 points ahead of LHBs since last season with batters from both sides hitting him hard at a league average 31% of the time. However, RHBs have 23 of his 31 HRs allowed since last season. Charlie Blackmon is out today, but is unfortunately replaced with another LHB in the rookie Raimel Tapia, who players still have to strongly consider for just $3K on DraftKings. The lineup spot and park make him worth that cost in just about any spot. The top bats are Arenado (113 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP this season) and LeMahieu (139 wRC+, .183 ISO vs LHP this season) with Raburn (111 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP this season) and Cardullo (312 wRC+ last seven days) bringing the value for $3.3K or less on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Matt Moore, DJ LeMahieu, Raimel Tapia, Ryan Raburn, Stephen Cardullo White Sox and Chris Sale take on Tigers in what should be close, low-scoring game
The White Sox and Chris Sale host the Tigers and Justin Verlander in a game that Vegas has nearly dead even with the White Sox slight favorites and a run total of just 7.5. Sale has been excellent of late (3.36 ERA and K rate of 27.6% over the last month) and is one of the top pitching options of the day going against a Tigers lineup filled with high K rate hitters. The White Sox bats have a tough match up against Verlander and can be avoided.
As reported by: Colleen Kane on Twitter