DFS Alerts
Nationals high implied run total is unsurprising given the elite spot against Adam Morgan
Adam Morgan is a fly ball pitcher in a hitters park, and that has resulted in expected home run issues to right-handed batters (20.9% HR/FB). He has good control, but with a 17.4% strikeout rate and 40.8% fly ball rate to right-handed batters, there’s an above-average chance of some baseballs finding the outfield seats. Jayson Werth is the clear top play from the Nationals with his 46.4% hard hit rate and .280 ISO against left-handed pitching. Wilson Ramos (152 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .311 ISO) has also shown big power to go along with his elite contact against lefties. Anthony Rendon (133 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .157 ISO vs LHP) and Ryan Zimmerman (.232 ISO vs LHP) could causeproblems for Morgan as well. Basically, this entire Nationals lineup is in play for tournament stacks.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Morgan
Hammel has allowed two or fewer runs in 18 of his 25 starts this season
If we ignore the last two starts, Jason Hammel looks like an elite value tonight. We have a long enough track record with Hammel for us to assume he will bounce back and we can deploy him as usual. Hammel is not an ace by any means, but he is a solid pitcher with good control (7.7% BB%) and average strikeouts (20.4%) as a strong home favorite with the wind blowing straight in from center at Wrigley Field. He has been particularly outstanding at home with a 1.79 ERA, though much of his home success is BABIP driven (.222 BABIP). The Pirates obviously have some good bats in their lineup, but don’t have great numbers overall against right-handed pitching and Hammel has been much better against right-handed batters (16.1% K-BB%). At his price on DraftKings, he is cash game and tournament viable, and he is even reasonably priced on FanDuel, though there are higher upside pitchers priced around him.
As reported by: FanGraphs Blue Jays lefties look to take advantage of Gallardo's lack of swing-and-miss stuff
The analysis is not overly complex when it comes to targeting Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo strikes out less than 18% of lefties and carries a fly ball percentage of 43% against LHBs. His xFIP at home of 5.74 reflects the hitter-friendly nature of Oriole Park at Camden Yards. According to RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors, LHBs have a home run environment rating of 1.31 with 1.00 being league average. While all of the usual right-handed Jays sluggers are in play for Blue Jays stacks, do not forget to include Michael Saunders, a power-hitting lefty with an ISO of 0.208 versus RHPs.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Yovani Gallardo
Gonzalez is one of the top pitching options on the slate but will likely see high ownership
Gio Gonzalez has a price tag just right where he should be on most sites. It makes him very enticing to consider in all formats, but the price is not so low that we actually have to force him into our lineups. Gonzalez has improved his control this season (8.0% BB%), but he is still far from a consistent pitcher. He has the ability to pile up strikeouts on any given day, but it’s equally likely that he disappoints. A matchup with a Phillies team that ranks 29th in ISO and wOBA against left-handed pitching with a high 22.9% strikeout rate certainly makes it appear more likely that we’ll see the good version of Gonzalez tonight. Over the past month, his control has been in check with a 6.0% walk rate to go along with a decent 21.1% strikeout rate. As long as Gonzalez is able to limit the free passes, he should be able to escape with a solid outing here tonight..
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page The Mets left-handed swingers will face Jake Esch tonight
Jake Esch has faced 601 batters in the minors this year and has displayed some noticeable splits. Right-handed batters have an OPS of 0.658 against Esch this year, while LHBs have a more concerning OPS of 0.809. The left-handed swinging Mets are very much in play today against Esch, beginning with Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson who have wRC+ totals of 108 and 107 versus RHP, respectively. Granderson has flashed a little more power against RHP than Walker this year, holding an ISO of 0.228. Look to begin any Mets stacks with a high ceiling outfield play like Granderson.
As reported by: Baseball Reference and FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jacob Esch Ryan Vogelsong has a 5.21 xFIP and allows a .376 wOBA to LHB
The wind blowing in at Wrigley Field is a bit of a buzzkill for the Cubs power bats, and its even more of a downgrade for the right-handed power throughout the Cubs batting order. However, the left-handed batters remain firmly in play, notably Anthony Rizzo (158 wRC+, .410 wOBA, .273 ISO), Tommy La Stella (130 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .172 ISO), and Dexter Fowler (121 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .161 ISO) who all have strong on base skills against right-handed pitching. Ryan Vogelsong has a 16.8% strikeout rate and 12.9% walk rate to left-handed batters, and has been consistently worse against lefties over the past few seasons.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Tommy La Stella, Dexter Fowler, Ryan Vogelsong Padres LHB find themselves in a great spot against the 4.9% K-BB% of Matt Wisler
Matt Wisler has a considerably lower strikeout rate against left-handed batters at just 14.6% and he has also exhibited no ability to limit hard contact (37.4%). Ryan Schimpf is the only individual batter we have much interest in as a one off with his .377 ISO against right-handed pitching, though we could certainly make a case for a mini-stackof Padres lefties, adding in Travis Jankowski (121 wRC+, .350 wOBA vs RHP), Yangervis Solarte (116 wRC+, .342 wOBA, .198 ISO vs RHP) or Alex Dickerson (.224 ISO vs RHP). It would also be viable in tournaments to consider Wil Myers against the fly ball lean of Wisler against right-handed batters (46.5%).
Other tagged players: Travis Jankowski, Yangervis Solarte, Alex Dickerson, Wil Myers, Matt Wisler Jose Ramirez is a viable under-the-radar play today for the Indians
Pat Dean has not allowed a home run to a left-handed batter in 2016 but has given up a HR/9 over 2.00 to righties. Generally, a 37% hard contact rate on balls put in play and a 40% fly ball percentage are a recipe for disaster. Jose Ramirez makes for a smart under the radar play for Cleveland, holding a 0.147 ISO versus lefties, complemented by his 5.7 speed according to FanGraphs. Ramirez appears to be in a groove in recent games, striking out an impressive 11% of the time over the last week.
As reported by: FanGraphs David Phelps scratched Wednesday
Phelps has been placed on the 15-day DL and will not make his scheduled start this evening. Jake Esch will start for the Marlins on Wednesday and while he isn’t a DFS option (he isn’t even available on most DFS outlets), this is good news for the Mets bats. Esch will be making his major league debut after posting a 4.31 ERA in the minors this year, so feel free to roster a few Mets LH bats and a complete Mets stack is a viable move as well.
As reported by: Adam Rubin
Reds implied run total on the decline (3.9) despite plus matchup against Ricky Nolasco
Ricky Nolasco has thrown a ton of strikes without much swing and miss stuff this season (8.8% SwStr%) which has led to a lot of home runs with his inability to limit hard hits (35.9% Hard%) or induce ground balls (42.6%). The Reds aren’t exactly a roster loaded with power, but certainly Joey Votto (.251 ISO, 44% hard hits vs RHP) and Adam Duvall (.283 ISO, 38% hard hits vs RHP) need to be in consideration. Votto is in play for any format while Duvall should be reserved more for tournaments. We can also consider Scott Schebler (.197 ISO, 37% hard hits vs RHP) and Eugenio Suarez (.156 ISO, 34% hard hits vs RHP) as contrarian tournament targets.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, Eugenio Suarez, Ricky Nolasco Paul Clemens owns a pitiful 2.92 HR/9 and 3.5% K-BB% versus RHB
There is nothing anywhere in the skill set of Paul Clemens that implies he should be a major league pitcher. He has a 5.09 SIERA (5.06 ERA) with a 17.1% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate and has allowed tons of hard contact to both right and left-handed batters (44.2%). He induces a bit more strikeouts to lefties but allows a 50.0% fly ball rate, and is only striking out 13.2% of right-handed batters, while only managing to get his ground ball rate up to 46.4%. Outside of Freddie Freeman and his .395 wOBA, .286 ISO and 41.7% hard hit rate, it is difficult to ever feel excited about any individual bats in this Baves lineup, but Clemens is a pitcher we want to attack. Matt Kemp (.191 ISO vs RHP), Adonis Garcia (.153 ISO vs RHP), and Tyler Flowers (125 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .175 ISO vsRHP) are guys all have above average hard hit rates against right-handed pitching, with Ender Inciarte having elite contact skills out of the leadoff spot.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Adonis Garcia, Tyler Flowers, Nick Markakis, Paul Clemens Giants have favorable match up against Shelby Miller today
The Giants face Shelby Miller and the Diamondbacks today – it’s a great match up for a Giants offense that is finally hitting stride, especially considering Miller has allowed a .426 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford are the top options for the home team with Angel Pagan (leading off), Joe Panik (2nd), Hunter Pence (5th), and Brandon Belt (6th) all viable options. Matt Moore is coming off of a one hitter and is in play but there are likely better options out there as his ownership will be higher than normal and he faces a team that hits LHP very well (2nd in wOBA, 1st in ISO).
As reported by: Amy Gutierrez on Twitter Other tagged players: Brandon Crawford, Matt Moore
Dbacks bats could be sneaky GPP options today
Matt Moore was one out away from a no-hitter last game and recency bias will likely have his ownership higher than it should be, especially with Vegas giving Arizona a run total of under 3 3/4 runs. The Diamondbacks, however, are one of the best teams in baseball against LHP (2nd in wOBA and 1st in ISO) and make for a compelling contrarian stack against the Giants, even in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. The two through five hitters (Pollock, Goldschmidt, Castillo, and Weeks) are the ones you want to look at with Jean Segura and Yasmany Tomas secondary options in the lineup. Shelby Miller and his 7+ ERA takes the mound for Arizona and can be avoided.
As reported by: Arizona Diamondbacks official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Welington Castillo Rockies get plus match up facing Ross Stripling
While the Dodgers are favored, the Rockies should have no problem putting runs up against the mediocre arm of Ross Stripling who has a 4.40 SIERA with a low K rate of 17%. The top four (Blackmon, LeMahieu, Gonzalez, and Arenado) of their lineup are strong plays with David Dahl (5th) and Gerardo Parra (6th) also in play. Tyler Anderson takes the mound for the home team and has GPP upside as his ownership will be low and the Dodgers have struggled this season against LHP (worst in the league in team wOBA). Always a risk utilizing a SP in Coors but he could be a difference maker today when most will gravitate towards other options.
As reported by: Eric Stephen on Twitter Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado Dodgers have highest run total of day playing in Coors
Even facing a better than average pitcher in Tyler Anderson, Vegas still thinks the Dodgers will put up some runs playing in hitter-friendly Coors Field as they have given them a run total approaching six (5.84) runs. The Dodgers struggle against LHP (last in team wOBA, 28th in team ISO) but it is Coors. Justin Turner batting third is the top option for the visiting team with Corey Seager, Kike Hernandez, and Rob Segedin options for your lineups as well. Howie Kendrick is also worth a look leading off. Ross Stripling starts for the Dodgers and is an easy fade.
As reported by: Los Angeles Dodgers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Howie Kendrick