DFS Alerts
Melky Cabrera scratched due to illness
The veteran White Sox OF was scheduled to bat third but has been scratched from the lineup due to illness. No new lineup yet but we’ll update it as soon as it comes in.
As reported by: Daryl Van Schouwen on Twitter
Astros and Michael Fiers huge favorites against Oakland today
Vegas LOVES the Astros today as they have listed them as -220 favorites and projected them to score nearly two runs more than the visiting Oakland A’s. Michael Fiers comes in at a relatively low price and dollar for dollar is probably the top SP option in the early slate. He’s pitched well of late (3.54 SIERA and 25.3% K rate in last six starts) and faces an Oakland team that ranks amongst the worst in the league against RHP. The only A’s bat worth mentioning is Khris Davis who has been red hot (.467 wOBA over the last two weeks). The Astros on the other hand are an offense worth targeting as they get the pleasure of facing one of the worst SP’s in baseball in Ross Detwiler who has allowed a ridiculous .443 wOBA and 13 HR’s to RH bats over the past two seasons. Guess how many RH bats the Astros have in their lineup today? If you said nine, you’d be correct. The top six of the order (Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Correa, Gattis, Gurriel) are all solid options with Bregman and Gattis being the hottest bats of that group (both with .450+ wOBAs over the last 14 days)
As reported by: Houston Astros official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Alex Bregman Franklin Gutierrez is always in play versus LHP and is facing a hittable Martin Perez today
Martin Perez has some qualities similar to his teammate Colby Lewis, in that he seems to maintain worse than average peripherals, while still pitching a gem from time to time. His last four outing are a microcosm of the frustration associated with stacking against him, as he allowed 6,6, 1, and 1 earned runs in those outings. With a 20% hard contact rate and a 26% fly ball percentage allowed to lefties, Perez will at least be able to neutralize many of the Mariners best left-handed bats. As far as RHBs, Franklin Gutierrez stands out as a known lefty-smasher, holding an ISO of 0.237 against LHP. Gutierrez is hitting the ball hard in 75% of his at-bats that have ended in contact over the last 7 days, and while his 46% strikeout rate over that period is concerning, Perez’s 11% strikeout rate against RHP should help mitigate any concerns about using the right-handed slugger today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Martin Perez
Mariners-Rangers game too close to call
Vegas isn’t sure who to side with today when Seattle visits Texas as it’s a near pick ‘em with Seattle and Felix Hernandez getting the slimmest of edges over Martin Perez and the Rangers. Hernandez is obviously the better pitcher of the two and has been pitching well of late (2.57 ERA and 25.6% K rate) but has a tough match up facing Texas in their home park. The upside is there, but the price tag (especially on FanDuel) makes him a tough play. Perez is an easy fade even against a Mariners team that has struggled against LHP. Normally Nelson Cruz would be a lock and load play but he’s sitting this one out. Franklin Gutierrez bats clean up and is the top bat from Seattle with Robinson Cano, Shawn O’Malley, and Dae-Ho Lee secondary options. Rangers bats will have a tougher time but they are still projected to score nearly 4.5 runs. Nomar Mazara, Carlos Beltran, and Rougned Odor are the three bats to focus on and you can also look at Adrian Beltre and Ian Desmond if you’re making a Rangers stack.
As reported by: Ryan Divish on Twitter Other tagged players: Franklin Gutierrez, Carlos Beltran Alex Bregman will bat 2nd and face Ross Detwiler in Houston today
Ross Detwiler has dramatic splits, giving up zero home runs on the year to LHBs while surrendering 1.83 HR/9 to RHBs. Even with his 5.27 xFIP to RHBs, Detwiler is not giving up egregiously hard contact to righties, only allowing a 29% hard contact rate. Still, on any given night, Detwiler’s minuscule 13% k rate versus RHBs can get him into trouble, making any of the Astros powerful right-handed bats with a high strikeout rate against lefties more interesting than usual. Alex Bregman stands out as an Astros righty option, holding a 0.243 ISO against left-hand pitchers with a 24% strikeout percentage against LHPs. Detwiler’s lack of swing-and-miss stuff should help Bregman put the ball in play, making him a legitimate value play today versus Ross Detwiler.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Kevin Roth's weather report is out, and only the Nationals-Phillies game has a rating worse than YELLOW.
Kevin Roth’s weather report is out, and only the Nationals-Phillies game is rated worse than yellow, possessing a rating of YELLOW/ORANGE. Roth shares that the timing of the storms in Philadelphia will determine how significantly they impact the game. Check out Roth’s full report for weather from around the league.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Forum Steven Wright is allowing an elevated flyball percentage in recent outings and faces Evan Longoria today
There was a time when Steven Wright could do no wrong, even while finishing the first three months of the season with an xFIP between 4.12 and 4.63. Only in the last month has Wright’s elevated xFIP translated into noticeable struggles, considering Wright is allowing a HR/9 over 1.00 for the first time this season, entering today’s game with an August HR/9 of 1.20. While Wright’s hard hit contact has remained steady, hovering between 27% and 31%, his fly ball percentage has skyrocketed in recent outings, standing at 51% in August. Evan Longoria is putting the ball in the air 55% of the time over the last week while making hard contact on 50% of his batted balls. According to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors, Fenway provides a league-neutral setting for right-handed home runs but does boast a generous 1.22 doubles rating for RHBs, giving Longoria a boost in a plus matchup.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: Steven Wright Tigers going for sweep of White Sox this afternoon
The Tigers are looking to complete a three game sweep today against the White Sox, but it won’t be easy as they face White Sox ace Chris Sale. They are moderate (-122) favorites, however, with Justin Verlander on the mound for them. It should be a relatively low-scoring affair (7.5 projected runs). Both pitchers have pitched well of late and have good upside in today’s game with Verlander getting the slight edge due to the Tigers lineup being much better than the White Sox. Victor Martinez is the only bat worth targeting in this game as he has owned Chris Sale (BvP truthers rejoice) having gone 18 for 38 over his career against him (with 7 extra base hits).
As reported by: Catherine Slonksnis on Twitter Other tagged players: Victor Martinez, Chris Sale Red Sox projected to score some runs today against Tampa
Although Drew Smyly has had a solid season thus far with a 3.99 SIERA and 23.9% K rate, he has the misfortune of facing the Red Sox at Fenway. Vegas has projected the Red Sox to top five runs and if you’re looking for bats outside of the Coors game it’s a good place to look. He’s particularly vulnerable to RH bats having allowed 32 HR’s to them over the past two seasons. Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, and Mookie Betts are the top options from that side of the plate with Betts being an elite option. Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young, and David Ortiz are also playable options either on their own or as part of a Red Sox stack. Steven Wright takes the mound for the home team and while he’s projected to give up some runs, he’s a solid favorite (-159) in line for the win. He’s in play for GPP’s going against a Rays team that strikes out a ton against RHP. That said there are some Rays bats you can look to, and they should be low-owned given some of the other match ups in this slate. The top four of their order (Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaeir, Evan Longoria, and Brad Miller) are all worthy of consideration.
As reported by: Scott Lauber on Twitter Other tagged players: Steven Wright Weather risk in Chicago and Texas have uprgaded by Kevin Roth
Kevin has lowered risk to just YELLOW in the PIT/CHC game. He has giving SEA/TEX his seal of approval with a straight GREEN. Read Kevin Roth’s full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page
Kyle Hendricks is the only qualified pitcher to generate more weak contact than hard
Kyle Hendricks’ $10.8K price tag may be a bit steep considering his 22.4 K%, but he’s one of very few pitchers players might feel comfortable paying for batted ball results with because he has dominated contact as the only qualified pitcher to generate more weak contact (26.3%) than hard (23.9%) this season, though a bit more than that has been in the air recently, dropping his season ground ball rate below 50%. He also has the best defense in baseball behind him and looks like a stronger choice for $9.3K at home against Pittsburgh (88 wRC+ on the road, 10.7 HR/FB vs RHP) in a decent spot. Projected for just a 3.5 runs tonight, there’s interest in just one Pittsburgh bat. Rookie Josh Bell won’t remain this hot, but has a 258 wRC+ and .333 ISO vs RHP and still costs well under $3K on either site, batting second tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Josh Bell
Angels check-in with an unusually high total of 5.2 runs (for them, at least)
Tim Adleman sets up to be a solid matchup for the Angels. Against a pitcher like Adleman with a low strikeout rate to right-handed batters (13.1%), a high hard-hit rate to right-handed batters (35.4%), and an average enough batted ball profile that these Angels bats can hammer out some extra base hits even if they don’t send the ball out of the ballpark. Mike Trout (180 wRC+, .432 wOBA, .266 ISO vs RHP) and C.J. Cron (127 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .196 ISO vs RHP) are the primary targets here as one offs or part of tournament stacks. The Angels may not produce five home runs again like last night but at least rostering them puts us in a position where we can rack up points even if the home runs don’t come in this matchup.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: C.J. Cron, Tim Adleman Only two pitchers have allowed more HRs than Jered Weaver (31)
Jered Weaver allowed just one HR in Toronto last time out after surrendering four against the powerless Yankees (except for Babe Sanchez) at home in his previous start because baseball, but only two pitchers have surrendered more than his 31 allowed this season. Batters from either side have a .352 wOBA against him since last season, but RHBs have a much higher 35.2 Hard%. We have to consider top of the lineup bats with power, even in a difficult run environment here. Those include Joey Votto (168 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015) most obviously, Adam Duvall (118 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Zack Cozart (98 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP since 2015) most cheaply (under $4K) at the top of the order.
Other tagged players: Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Jered Weaver Zack Greinke gets a park upgrade and has a 3.36 xFIP since returning from the DL
Zack Greinke struggled a bit in Atlanta in his last start and was hammered by the Red Sox a few starts back, but has pitched well in his other two road starts at NY(NL) and SD since coming back from the DL. His 3.75 SIERA over the last month is in line with his season number, while his 3.36 xFIP is actually down half a run. With a major park upgrade in San Francisco (though facing a very well disciplined offense….7.0 K-BB% at home, 7.9 K-BB% vs RHP), Greinke is a reasonable pivot off some higher priced arms on a two pitcher site like DraftKings for just $8.3K. While the San Francisco lineup is full of fine hitters, we have no interest in them without a lot of power in a difficult environment against a good pitcher. The Giants are projected for just 3.7 runs, but are still the favorite with Cueto on the mound, which probably makes Greinke less attractive on FanDuel.
Diamondbacks are the proud owners of the lowest implied total on the board (2.8)
Johnny Cueto is the prototypical better real life pitcher than fantasy pitcher. He has elite control and ability to pitch deep into games gives him one of the safest floors among starting pitchers, especially when he’s at home, but with a strikeout rate of just 22.0% the upside is hard to find. Arizona’s right-handed heavy, strikeout prone lineup could add a few strikeouts to his line but the upside is still nowhere close to Scherzer and other high-priced pitchers. It’s certainly viable to use Cueto as a tournament pivot, as he’s very likely to pitch well, and there’s always the chance that Scherzer has an off night, For the most part, this is a great situation for us to avoid in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines