DFS Alerts
Cespedes and Cabrera OUT, but Conforto returns against Urena
Jose Urena doesn’t really have terrible peripherals since returning to the majors with nearly league average strikeout (19.2%) and walk (8.2%) rates. He does have a 46.2 Hard% over those three starts though and as aching as the Mets may be now, they’re the hottest offense on the board (140 wRC+, 37.1 Hard%, 17.9 HR/FB last seven days). Two key cogs in that offense, Cespedes and Cabrera are out tonight. Likely because Terry Collins doesn’t want to risk two guys on one leg each on field where it’s been raining all day (Kevin’s early weather report has it clearing out though – stay tuned). That still leaves a few formidable and affordable bats to attack Urena with. LHBs have a .366 wOBA against him in his career. Curtis Granderson (133 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is heating up again with two HRs off the bench two nights ago and a 167 wRC+ with a 72.7 Hard% over the last week. Michael Conforto (125 wRC+, .242 ISO career vs RHP) returns. He had a 221 wRC+ at AAA this season. Kelly Johnson (102 wRC+, .163 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats third. He actually has a 133 wRC+ in 150 PAs since the trade and costs $3.1K or less.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Kelly Johnson, Jose Urena
Ervin Santana had a nice August, but walked five Blue Jays in his last start
Ervin Santana returns home for the first time in five starts. The first three of those starts were strong in Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Kansas City with his K% and SwStr% spiking before facing a real test in Toronto, which he failed miserably by walking five with just four strikeouts. He has a nice matchup at home against the White Sox (87 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP), but he now costs above $9K on DraftKings (more than deGrom). $7.7K on FanDuel is more reasonable, but still not exciting when facing Quintana in a game where he is not favored. Santana has no real platoon split. Batters from either side have a wOBA around .300 against him since last year. Because we have to reach a bit lower on just a three game slate, Adam Eaton (122 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is probably the most attractive bat here for right around $3.5K on either site. Alex Avila (97 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is a reasonable choice at Catcher for less than $3K. Justin Morneau (100 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is today’s BvP champion. He has four career HRs against Santana, but they were both very different players a few years back.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Ervin Santana, Alex Avila, Justin Morneau Samardzija has recorded a 10.6% SwStr% over his last three starts
Jeff Samardzija is never the most enticing pitching option, he doesn’t strike many batters out (18.3% K%), but he will likely be among the lower owned pitchers tonight thanks to the matchup against the Cubs (check out our Projected Ownership page for the latest projections). On DraftKings, pairing Samardzija with Jacob deGrom in tournaments is a great way to get one of your pitchers at a lower ownership percentage. Samardzija is pretty league average across the board, with a 4.34 SIERA, a 4.22 xFIP, a 31.6% hard hit rate allowed, and a 6.5% walk rate. The cool weather combined with the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field is another positive that gives Samardzija a boost in this matchup, and for those players that enjoy taking a stroll down Narrative Street, he is set to face off with one of his former teams. If preferring to attack Samardzija with a few hitters, the top of the Cubs order, consisting of Anthony Rizzo (156 wRC+, .408 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP), Kris Bryant (156 wRC+, .408 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP), and Dexter Fowler (121 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .167 ISO vs RHP), seem like the best bets to produce.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Dexter Fowler
Ozuna and Realmuto OUT agianst deGrom tonight.
Jacob deGrom returns a bit early after his skipped start due to Steven Matz’s continued shoulder issues. The hope is that extra rest will revitalize him after two rough starts as extra time off has done in the past for him. deGrom himself believes he’s just leaving too many pitches over the plate and his Fangraphs heat maps fully support this. He only allowed a lot of hard contact in the second of those bad starts though with his velocity down just a bit, so maybe the extra rest with the knowledge of command issues will help. Something else that will likely help is an awful looking Marlins lineup with Ichiro Suzuki (92 wRC+, .070 ISO vs RHP this season) batting second and Jeff Francoeur (70 wRC+, .123 ISO vs RHP this season) batting fifth in the absence of Marcell Ozuna tonight. J.T. Realmuto is out as well. deGrom is going to be very difficult to fade on a three game slate, but our Projected Ownership page has him at 67% on DraftKings and 50% on FanDuel tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Ichiro Suzuki, Jeff Francoeur Padres take on Braves in only afternoon game
Mike Foltynewicz and the Braves host Jarred Cosart and the Padres in the only afternoon game this Thursday and one of just four games in total. Cosart has been unimpressive with a 4.88 SIERA, a low K rate, and a high walk rate. Adonis Garcia and Matt Kemp are elite options against him with Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman, and Nick Markakis secondary players you can roster. “Folty” has been mediocre this season but has a plus match up against the Padres – his price on FanDuel is attractive making him a viable GPP play there. Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf, and Oswaldo Arcia are secondary options from the Padres lineup.
As reported by: San Diego Padres official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Mike Foltynewicz
Justin Turner faces off against rookie pitcher, Jeff Hoffman
Jeff Hoffman’s minor league numbers indicate that he may have trouble getting right-handed batters out, considering his OPS allowed to RHBs was 0.810, even higher than his 0.707 OPS allowed to LHBs. In only a couple of major league starts, the trend of right-handed batters getting to Hoffman has continued, and his 47% flyball percentage in his first two outings is not going to do him any favors. Justin Turner has shown all year that he is plenty happy to face right-handed pitchers, holding an ISO of 0.262 versus righties this year. Turner’s 17% strikeout rate makes him a high-floor play at the hot corner tonight against a rookie pitcher who has been giving up flyballs 47% of the time on balls that are put into play.
As reported by: Baseball Reference and FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jeff Hoffman
Rich Hill scratched, Bud Norris to start on Wednesday
Hill has been scratched with a finger injury, which will afford Bud Norris the chance to start in Coors Field. It’s likely going to be a short outing for him with the bullpen being relied on heavily, so targeting Colorado hitters from either side of the plate is a recommended strategy for the late-slate. The left-handed bats towards the top of the lineup are still the preferred targets here, with Nolan Arenado being an elite play from the right side.
As reported by: JP Hoornstra Other tagged players: Bud Norris
Fairly-low risk weather concerns throughout, except in WAS/PHI game
Tonight’s only real risk comes from the Nationals-Phillies game where Kevin Roth believes a late start is likely. We should be hesitant in taking a chance on pitchers in these situations. However, hitters shouldn’t be entirely ruled out but just understand the possible PPD risk if Kevin doesn’t upgrade the risk prior to lock. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Yankees implied run total is down to just 3.7 runs
Ian Kennedy has been great at home all season long, but he’s actually been pitching great everywhere over the past month. Kennedy has been an above-average strikeout pitcher (24.0% K%) with decent control, and has a home ballpark that helps his fly ball style (47.9% FB%). Home runs are really his only weakness at this point, and the Yankees are not exactly a power hitting team, especially on the road. Kennedy could be one of the better under-the-radar tournament plays on the board given the Gary Bonds, I mean Gary Sanchez, overloaded hype train (be sure to check out the Projected Ownership page for reference). Speaking of Gary Sanchez (278 wRC+, .581 wOBA, .494 ISO vs RHP), he is definitely in play if looking to pick on the long ball tendencies of Kennedy.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez Luis Cessa looks to hold down the Royals in Kansas City
Luis Cessa has many of the characteristics that get pitchers into trouble, including a 41% flyball rate allowed to righties, a 35% hard contact rate allowed to lefties, and a strikeout rate below 19% against both LHBs and RHBs. He has been able to offset some of these tendencies with a low flyball rate to lefties and a lower, 28%, hard contact allowed to RHBs. However, if Cessa has an off-night and gives up harder contact to lefties than he has so far in 30 innings, his 41% flyball rate could get him into trouble. If his hard contact to LHBs does increase, a likely beneficiary is Eric Hosmer. Hosmer has a 115 wRC+ this year against RHP and has made hard contact in 38% of at bats that have ended in contact when facing righties. While they will be playing in Kansas City, Hosmer’s 103 wRC+ at home is comparable to his wRC+ of 102 in away games.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Luis Cessa Kluber is the chalk of all chalk but is he even fade-able on this slate?
Corey Kluber is a massive home favorite against Minnesota and is the clear top pitching option on this slate. Kluber has nine straight quality starts, with seven or eight strikeouts in all but one of them. He has a 25.5% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 12.2% swinging strike rate, respectable ground balls (46.2%), and a 3.53 SIERA. The skill set of Kluber is obviously strong and extremely consistent, while his strikeout rate is not quite at an elite level, he’s not priced as an elite level pitcher either. The Twins are nothing special against right-handed pitching, and to reiterate, Kluber is very clearly our top pitching target tonight, and there is no reason to not to utilize him in all formats on both major sites.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Matt Carpenter looks to be the epitome of a high floor play at 2B tonight
Matt Carpenter will face Matt Garza tonight, a pitcher who is only whiffing 12% of left-handed bats on the season. Matt Carpenter’s 0.290 ISO versus RHP leaves DFS players salivating, and his 18% strikeout percentage against righties is plenty respectable. Tonight, Carpenter should have an even better chance of making contact, considering Garza’s inability to put LHB away. For anyone stacking Cardinals tonight, Brandon Moss is the second most interesting Cardinal, holding a 146 wRC+ total on the season in at-bats versus RHP. Moss too will benefit greatly from the matchup against Garza tonight, helping to lessen Moss’s strikeout risk, considering he has a 30% strikeout rate against RHPs on the season. Jedd Gyorko is also worth noting, seeing that he has a 136 wRC+ against RHP on the year and will bat 2nd for the Cards tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Brandon Moss, Matt Garza, Jedd Gyorko Aaron Sanchez is a strong play at SP if he can avoid two LHBs
Aaron Sanchez has a stellar 3.19 xFIP versus RHBs and has proven that he can find success, even against the better RHBs. The Orioles will send three lefties to the plate tonight, so Sanchez could have a big night if he can avoid Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez. Over the last 7 days, Pedro Alvarez is making hard contact only 17% of the time, and while Davis has a more impressive 44% hard contact rate, Davis is striking out 33% of the time over that same time period. If Sanchez can avoid making any major mistakes against these two power lefties, he should be able to handle the O’s RHBs, as is evident by his 25% hard contact allowed to right-handed bats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Pedro Alvarez Mike Trout and Albert Pujols OUT of the Angels lineup, Andrelton Simmons bats lead off
The game log of Brandon Finnegan looks mighty impressive as the 20 strikeouts in his last two starts really jump off the page. The first reaction naturally might be to stay away from Angels bats. However, with the recent success, and the fact that Finnegan was widely expected to develop into a good pitcher, we should have no hesitation taking a chance on Angels hitters in tournaments with the suppressed ownership. We can’t just overlook that Finnegan has an 11.3% walk rate, 40.4% hard hit rate, 39.9% fly ball rate, and a 4.88 xFIP against right-handed batters this season with a 5.04 SIERA in total. Jett Bandy (162 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .316 ISO vs LHP), C.J. Cron (.185 ISO vs LHP), and Jefry Marte (.245 ISO vs LHP) should be at least considered in a tournament mini-stack, along with Andrelton Simmons for his minuscule price tag batting lead off.
Other tagged players: Jett Bandy, C.J. Cron, Jefry Marte, Brandon Finnegan Luke Weaver looks to hold down a right-handed heavy Brewers lineup
Luke Weaver has done a fantastic job over the last few weeks of limiting hard contact. Over that period, Weaver’s batted balls are only being hit hard 21% of the time, complementing an already healthy 28% strikeout rate. He faces a Brewers team who lacks any lefty sluggers who can take advantage of the 35% hard contact Weaver has allowed to LHBs on the season. Instead, the Brewers best hitters are right-handed, the side of the plate making only 15% hard contact on the season against young Luke Weaver.
As reported by: FanGraphs