DFS Alerts
Cheap San Diego LHBs look attractive against Bradley (LHBs .373 wOBA, 38.3 Hard%)
Archie Bradley has a career 37.8% hard hit rate spread fairly evenly between RH and LH batters, while LHBs have a .373 wOBA as opposed to RHBs at .307. Some of that is due to the offensive environment in Arizona and he gets a significant park upgrade in San Diego, but several low priced Padre bats look like great values here, especially for players paying up for pitching. Jankowski, Dickerson and Solarte all have a wRC+ between 125 and 130 vs RHP this season and while the latter two add an ISO above .200, Jankowski has no power, but 25 SBs in just 247 PAs. Ryan Schimpf (144 wRC+, .346 ISO vs RHP) continues to be the prize of this lineup, especially as a middle infielder. All bats cost $4K or less on DraftKings with Dickerson just $3.4K, while they are all $3K or less on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Travis Jankowski, Alex Dickerson, Yangervis Solarte
Kevin Gausman is surrendering 2.17 HR/9 to RHB this season
Gausman is coming off a peculiar outing where he only lasted four innings (97 pitches) and allowed just two hits but struck out nine of the 20 batters he faced. His swinging strike rate is up to 10.8% to along with a 23.5% strikeout rate, numbers that are both above the major league average. Gausman has a respectable 3.84 SIERA and 3.82 xFIP, but is a fly ball (36.1%) and reverse splits pitcher (.366 wOBA vs RHB), which could get him into some trouble against Houston right-handed bats at the top of the order. The Astros are such a boom or bust offense that Gausman is certainly in play for tournaments. The Astros hitters aren’t especially high on the list of bats we want to target tonight but going home run hunting with a Houston bat or two like Jose Altuve (157 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .199 ISO vs RHP), Carlos Correa (136 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .222 ISO vs RHP), and George Springer (.173 ISO vs RHP).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, George Springer, Kevin Gausman
Tyler Duffey has a career 14.9 K-BB% on the road and has struck out 20 of last 74 batters
Tyler Duffey has excelled on the road, though he’s pitched well in his last two starts at home as well. Away from home, he has a career 14.9 K-BB%. In his last three starts overall, he’s struck out 20 of 74 with just two walks. He faces the Royals again, whom he shut down in his last start. Though they’re better at home (99 wRC+), it’s probably a boost to his 18.8 HR/FB pitching in Kansas City. The Royals doesn’t walk (6.1%), strikes out at an average rate (20.3%) and have little power (9.3 HR/FB) vs RHP. Duffey has had a history of burning owners in what appeared to be good spots for him at home this season, which could lower his ownership here (check our Projected Ownership page when it becomes available). He’s an interesting play with an average price tag ($7.4K on DraftKings), but even cheaper ($6.5K) on FanDuel as essentially a pick’em tonight. Duffey has exhibited a significant reverse split in his career (RHBs have a .375 wOBA and 33.5 Hard% against him) and though the Royals throw six RHBs out there, including the top three, only Eric Hosmer (119 wRC+) has been an above average hitter against RHP. Salvador Perez does have a 96 wRC+ and leads the team in power with a .200 ISO vs RHP.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez Danny Salazar returns from the DL (elbow) without a rehab start
Danny Salazar was getting smacked around for the better part of a month before going to the DL with an elbow issue two weeks ago. He returns 17 days after his last start, costing $9K not in a bad spot at home against the White Sox (89 wRC+ vs RHP). Another concern is that the lack of a rehab assignment may limit his pitch count tonight even if all does go well, though his inconsistent control has already kept him to fewer than six innings in 10 of his 20 starts. With the White Sox still projected for just 3.5 runs, this is looking like a spot players may do well to fade completely, although Jose Abreu does have three HRs against Salazar in just 17 career PAs with a 94.5 mph aEV on nine recorded batted balls in the matchup.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Jose Abreu Nationals bats could make for a worthy fade candidate in tournaments
Targeting an offense in their first game away from Coors Field is something that we typically try to avoid, but that may tougher to accomplish tonight as the Nationals have one of the higher implied run totals on the board of 4.9 runs. Rob Whalen gets the start tonight for the Braves, and he has had significant control issues in his 21 starts in minors this season (3.30 BB/9). However, those walks haven’t been as much of an issue through his first three starts in the big leagues (7.1% BB%). Whalen brings some decent strikeout upside to the table (24.3% K%), but it will be difficult to trust him against an explosive offense in anything other than a long-shot tournament flier. The National have a high team total for a reason and we’ll have to give them the slightest of edges in this matchup with the limited major league experience Whalen possesses. If deciding to stack up the Nationals bats, Daniel Murphy (169 wRC+, .428 wOBA, .273 ISO vs RHP), Trea Turner (155 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .275 ISO vs RHP), Bryce Harper (128 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .217 ISO vs RHP), and Anthony Rendon (.193 ISO vs RHP) are the top candidates here.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Robert Whalen Joc Pederson leads team with a .276 ISO vs RHP this year, projects for lowest ownership among LAD LHBs
Jerad Eickhoff generally pitches very well at home (career 17.7 K-BB%), although his last two home outings against the Rockies and Marlins have been a little shaky, while the Dodgers have been mauling RHP recently and now have a 104 wRC+ with a 34.0 Hard% and 15.0 HR/FB against them on the season, which is dangerous in small park, especially considering their team 146 wRC+ and 19.6 HR/FB over the last week. Eickhoff also has an extreme split with LHBs owning a .347 wOBA against him with RHBs 82 points lower, though they have hit him harder (33.6% to 31.8%). Two-thirds of his HRs have gone to LHBs, though he’s been split in his 11 allowed at home. Joc Pederson leads the offense with a .276 ISO vs RHP this season and has a 331 wRC+ over the last week and has the lowest projected ownership of any LHB in this lineup according to our Projected Ownership page. With the Dodgers projected for five runs tonight, he could help someone win a GPP with a big night. Corey Seager (156 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top SS play and even the recently red hot Adrian Gonzalez (130 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015) looks like a strong play with a 205 wRC+ over the last week. Yasmani Grandal continues to hit for the second most power in this lineup vs RHP this year (.264 ISO), making him a top Catcher play tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Jerad Eickhoff Brandon Guyer has a 199 wRC+ and .253 ISO vs LHP this season
Carlos Rodon hasn’t been that bad, but is in a terrible spot tonight, the worst on the board by far. The Cleveland offense has a 128 wRC+ at home, the best mark since the 2003 Red Sox (137) and are now up to a 105 wRC+ vs LHP with a 159 wRC+ and just a 15.5 K% over the last week. We also know that Rodon struggles with RHBs, who have a .357 wOBA against him in his short career with a 10.7 BB% and 27 of his 28 home runs served up. Each of the first seven batters in the Cleveland lineup has a 120 or better wRC+ over the last week. If we remove Kipnis and Carlos Santana, who has been just an average bat with no power vs LHP, we’re left with five viable, but mostly high cost Cleveland bats with a projection of five runs tonight. The strongest bat of all looks to belong to Mike Napoli (156 wRC+, .279 ISO vs LHP since 2015), projected for to be owned less than 5% tonight on our new Projected Ownership page. The most interesting name might be Brandon Guyer, who has absolutely mashed LHP this year (199 wRC+, .253 ISO) and costs just $2.5K on FanDuel with a reasonable $4.2K price tag on DraftKings. Likely because he’s batting seventh, he’s projected for less than 5% ownership on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Carlos Rodon, Mike Napoli, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis Musgrove not feeling the love from Vegas as the Orioles implied run total has increased to 4.5 runs
Joe Musgrove is set to toe the rubber against Baltimore tonight in his third major league start. After tossing 4.1 innings of scoreless relief against Toronto in his debut, he has logged 14 solid innings over two starts, allowing a total of three runs in the process. Those starts also came against potent offenses in Texas and Toronto, so he has yet to even draw a plus matchup. Musgrove has induced a solid 11.2% swinging strike rate in his brief major league career, and he is likely to give the Orioles some problems since they are seeing him for the first time. His SIERA and xFIP are 2.59 and 2.82 respectively, in a limited sample size of course, and Musgrove has shown enough for us to be completely off the Baltimore bats here. Musgrove has an affordable price tag of $7,000 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel, and can be considered as a high risk/reward pitching option for tournaments. There may be too much risk to trust him in cash games against an offense that has loads of power and hits right-handed pitching well. Be sure to check out the RotoGrinders Projected Ownership page (linked below) as we approach lock to ensure the Musgrove ownership doesn’t get too out of hand to be usable in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Dan Straily has a 3.75 ERA due to a .234 BABIP and increased strand rate in recent starts
Dan Straily has had a strand rate in the high 80’s or better in each of his last six starts. In fact, his BABIP in his last start was .529, but he still just allowed two runs. He’s allowed six of his 19 HRs over his last five starts, but has otherwise been holding his ERA below four with smoke and mirrors and a .234 BABIP. The Marlins are projected for just over 4 runs here, so it’s really a matchup without a lot allure on either side, especially considering that while LHBs have a wOBA nearly 30 points higher against him since last season (.312 vs .283), RHBs have actually made harder contact (33.9% to 29.7%). Christian Yelich (153 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP this season) might make some sense here. He does have two extra-base hits, including a HR, in three PAs against Straily.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Dan Straily Ross Stripling faces the worst home offense in baseball (69 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%)
Ross Stripling went seven innings in his last start, despite five runs (two HRs) and only struck out four Pirates. He has a below average 9.8 K-BB% with a 34.5 Hard% and is probably no better than a fifth or spot starter on a decent team. He is in a great spot though. The Phillies have been a bit better recently (113 wRC+ last seven days), but are still the worst home offense (69 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%) and second worst vs RHP (82 wRC+, 14.8 K-BB%) in the majors. He’s not a poor choice on a two pitcher site like DraftKings for $5.6K if paying up for a top pitcher, but may struggle to cover $7.2K on FanDuel. Interestingly, he’s been much worse vs RHBs (.328 wOBA, 37.5 Hard%) as has also been the case in the minors, which makes the Philadelphia RH bats slightly interesting in a favorable park for RH power. Franco, Altherr and Rupp are all nearly average hitters vs RHP with some power, but not enough to talk too much about. Rupp’s $2.7K cost behind the plate on FanDuel might be the most intriguing. Ryan Howard (104 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been hammering the ball recently (226 wRC+, .45.5 Hard%) and Odubell Herrera has been their best bat vs RHP (119 wRC+ since 2015), costing just $2.8K on FanDuel. Perhaps it’s situation to avoid offensively on DraftKings though, as the pricing algorithm seems to like Phillies bats more than Vegas (4.0 runs).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryan Howard, Aaron Altherr, Cameron Rupp, Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera Cozart and Duvall OUT against Jose Fernandez.
Jose Fernandez is tonight’s top pitcher, which is usually the case when he takes the mound. His last start was skipped and he hasn’t pitched in 10 days, but that’s fine by us if that’s the way they’re going to shave his innings this season because he’s been regularly throwing 100 or more pitches in recent starts. We can be further encouraged by the fact that the Marlins are in a Wild Card race where every game matters. While his strikeouts have dropped slightly in his last few starts, his 15.7 SwStr% over the last month is even higher. His 35.7 K% still leads baseball by nearly three points. The Reds have just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP and sit both Cozart and Duvall (who missed yesterday as well), which doesn’t necessarily give Fernandez much of a bump because he dominates RHBs anyway (.223 wOBA since last year). LHBs have a bit of a chance against him (.318 wRC+, 33.7 Hard% since 2015), which makes Joey Votto (165 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP since 2015) a potentially viable contrarian play. He has a 223 wRC+ and 60.0 Hard% over the last week without much of a price reduction in this spot, but players may want to check out our new Projected Ownership page once it updates to how Votto rates later.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Joey Votto Freddie Freeman has a 333 wRC+ and 81.3 Hard% over the last week
Reynaldo Lopez has had an above average K-BB% throughout the minors, but after striking out nine of 25 Dodgers in his first start, he’s failed to strike out more than he’s walked in his last two, despite allowing just one run over seven innings to these Braves last time and he is no longer minimally priced on DraftKings. He does appear to have some talent though and with the Braves projected to score around four runs, players might consider just sticking to the red hot Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has a 333 wRC+ and 81.3 Hard% over the last week, for their offensive needs in this matchup.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Reynaldo Lopez Tyler Skaggs has struck out 22 of 99 batters since returning from Tommy John Surgery
Tyler Skaggs has struck out 22 of 99 batters since returning from TJS, including eight of 22 Red Sox in his lone home start. His 6.9 SwStr% is much less impressive, but it’s been above 9% twice and below 5% twice in his four starts. The Mariners did homer twice against him in Seattle two starts back, but he has otherwise done a great job of limiting hard contact (21.4%) and hasn’t been above 30% in a single start. They are an average offense with a 102 wRC+ both on the road and vs LHP in a pitcher’s park tonight that has been a great power suppressor the last few years. Unfortunately, Skaggs costs $8.3K on DraftKings, but players looking to stack a higher costing offense could consider him for just $6.7K on FanDuel as a -130 favorite. As usual when the Mariners face a lefty, two bats remain a strong consideration. Nelson Cruz because he obliterates LHP (187 wRC+, .332 ISO since 2015) and Franklin Gutierrez (154 wRC+, .263 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for his potent and low cost bat (below $3.5K on either site).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Franklin Gutierrez Walker OUT again, Johnson bats 2nd, Granderson dropped to 6th in Arizona
Zack Godley hasn’t started a game in two weeks, but went six innings in that game and 5.1 in his most recent relief outings, so he should have enough in reserve to get through five or six innings today. Although his 18.0 K% sits a bit below average, he’s been missing quite a few bats (12.1% last 30 days) and a 53.3 GB% over the last month should help him keep the ball in the park. The Mets have scored a few runs in the first couple of games of this series, but are a below average, banged up offense with a 22 K% both on the road (89 wRC+) and vs RHP (91 wRC+). It’s not a bad matchup, even factoring in the hindering park effects. There might be some potential in this arm for $4.2K on DraftKings. This Mets lineup is somehow projected for five runs tonight and there are a couple of cheap bats that could return a decent value, particularly with Kelly Johnson (100 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) batting second and Travis d’Arnaud (103 wRC vs RHP since 2015) each just above $3.5K on DK and below $3K on FD. Both have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week. T.J. Rivera is the other interesting play here. He had four hits last night and a 103 wRC+ in his first 23 major league PAs with a 140 wRC+ at AAA this season. He costs $3K or less on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Kelly Johnson, T.J. Rivera, Travis d'Arnaud Look for a bullpen game for Seattle tonight as Cody Martin transitions from bullpen role
We don’t have a ton of data at our disposal with Cody Martin as he has recoded just 40.2 career innings in the majors. His minor league numbers are fairly decent with an above-average strikeout rate (23.2%) and mediocre control (7.0% BB%) with a limited amount of home runs allowed (0.52 HR/9), but until we witness that same type of success at the major league level, we’ll have to assume the likes of Mike Trout (180 wRC+, .431 wOBA, .273 ISO vs RHP), Albert Pujols (.157 ISO vs RHP), and Kole Calhoun will be able to take advantage of Martin in a spot where the Angels are implied to score 4.9 runs.
Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun, Cody Martin