DFS Alerts
Castillo OUT, Haniger bats second at home against Jon Niese
Jon Niese makes his first start for the Mets this season. He’s having a terrible season, is dealing with a knee injury, hasn’t pitched more than two innings in a month and is facing an offense that mashes mediocre LHP in a difficult park. RHBs have punished him for a .346 wOBA since last season. There are no LHBs in this lineup. There’s also no Welington Castillo against a lefty and Mitch Haniger is not even yet available on many sites batting second. While these things are a bit of a disappointment, players can still happily stack Diamondbacks with a health projection over five runs, especially on FanDuel, where a guy like Yasmany Tomas (152 wRC+, .308 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $3.2K. Paul Goldschmidt (183 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since last season) is the obvious and expensive choice at a well balanced First Base position tonight. Rickie Weeks has been a surprise lefty masher this season (151 wRC+, .288 ISO) and a great value play on FanDuel ($2.5K) and DraftKings players could even look at Tuffy Gosewisch (114 wRC+, .263 ISO career vs LHP) as a salary saver at $2.8K.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Rickie Weeks, Tuffy Gosewisch, Jon Niese
Kevin's evening weather update has some risk in several spots, primary concern in Baltimore
There seem to be many spots that could see some rain tonight (graded YELLOW), but the worst of it in Kevin Roth’s weather report appears to be in the Red Sox-Orioles game, potentially affecting pitchers and possible even hitters if the game is postponed. Players will want to read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page (linked below) to assess risk and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Athletics implied run total is in a free fall, currently sitting at 3.1 runs
Yu Darvish finally eclipsed the 100-pitch plateau in his last start, which is a great sign, even if it wasn’t one of his best outings of the year. Darvish has consistently flashed the upside of an elite strikeout pitcher in his first nine starts since being activated from the disabled list posting a 31.9% strikeout rate, 12.8% swinging strike rate, and a 2.90 SIERA. We still need to be aware of a pitch count with Darvish, although the Rangers seem to be loosening the reigns a bit as he has gone at least six innings in five straight starts. Darvish has already put up an 11 strikeout game while on a much stricter pitch count and still has the potential strikeout more batters than any other pitcher on this slate even if he only manages to go six innings. Oakland is a team that doesn’t strikeout a ton, but they also rank near the bottom in team wOBA and ISO versus right-handed pitching. Darvish has built-in strikeout upside so we shouldn’t be overly concerned with the Athletics low 18.4% strikeout rate. Roll out Darvish with confidence in cash games and tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Lester has struck out 21 of his last 74 and gets a nice bump with Braun OUT, Broxton leads off.
The Brewers had been improving vs LHP and now hold a 102 wRC+ against them and even drew five walks against Jon Lester a few weeks ago, but they still strike out 24.3% of the time against southpaws and any reason to fade Lester goes right out the window with the absence of Ryan Braun from the lineup. There are still some interesting aspects to this lineup which has Keon Broxton (132 wRC+ vs LHP this season) leading off for $3.2K or less on either site and Chris Carter smashing LHP (160 wRC+, .371 ISO this season) for less than $4K. Jonathan Villar (139 wRC+) is an incredibly interesting name against a pitcher who refuses to throw to First Base, but he is dropped to third today and retains an expensive price tag. Lester is essentially tied for the highest price tag on either site today and is likely to be highly owned (27% via our Projected Ownership Page) against this lineup, but has gotten on a bit of a roll, allowing just four ERs with 21 strikeouts (74 BF) over his last three starts and will likely be a top three pitcher tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Keon Broxton, Chris Carter, Jonathan Villar Miguel Cabrera returns to Detroit lineup vs Yordano Ventura of a nine strikeout game with one walk
Yordano Ventura struck out nine Twins in his last start, but it was just the second time he’s struck out more than six this season. His control continues to be erratic with four walks in three of his last seven starts, but just one each in the other four. With the Tigers currently licking their wounds, at least Miguel Cabrera returns to the lineup. Players might be best served just sticking to the two most potent bats vs RHP here. Ventura doesn’t have much of a platoon split with batters from either side having a wOBA a bit above .300 against him since last season. That might work out well enough for Detroit as their top bats are right-handed anyway. J.D. Martinez (137 wRC+, . 245 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Miguel Cabrera (157 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are both far ahead of the rest of the lineup.
Other tagged players: Yordano Ventura, JD Martinez Rangers RHB in premier spot at home versus Sean Manaea
Sean Manaea is a good young pitcher that has some pedigree as a prospect, but he has definitely had his issues with right-handed batters in his rookie season. Manaea has posted decent strikeout and walk numbers but is surrendering too many fly balls (39.1%) and hard contact (34.7%) to righties. He is able to get away with a pitching profile like that at times in Oakland, but may not be as fortunate in Arlington against a Rangers lineup with some good right-handed hitters. Speaking of the Texas righties we want to target, Adrian Beltre (164 wRC+, .423 wOBA, .257 ISO vs LHP), Carlos Beltran (172 wRC+, .429 wOBA, .269 ISO vs LHP), Ian Desmond (142 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .195 ISO vs LHP), Ryan Rua (122 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .157 ISO vs LHP), and Jonathan Lucroy (.232 ISO vs LHP) are the bats that are primarily in play, although a case can be made for any of them in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua, Jonathan Lucroy, Sean Manaea Anibal Sanchez followed up a 10 strikeout performance with a drop in velocity and four HRs
Anibal Sanchez’s velocity was down to 89.9 mph as he allowed four HRs in his last start after he had previously struck out 10 for the second time in four starts and it looked like his HR issues were coming under control with just three allowed in six starts after being restored to the rotation before his last time out. He could bounce back in a great spot against the Royals (79 wRC+ on the road, 85 wRC+ vs RHP) and may be worth a shot as a secondary pitcher on DraftKings for $5.6K, but this is looking like a matchup not worth much of our time on either end with the Royals projected for four runs. Kendrys Morales (120 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is hitting the ball hard though, with a 142 wRC+ and 45 Hard% over the last week and may provide some value right around $3K on either site. Sal Perez gets the night off for the Royals.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Anibal Sanchez Twins lineup is still minus Sano, but LHBs have a .386 wOBA vs Foltynewicz since last sesaon
Mike Foltynewicz has only finished six innings once in his last five starts as his walk rate has nearly doubled to 9.2% in six starts since the break. While his HRs have been evenly distributed this season, LHBs have thumped him for a .386 wOBA since last season. Though this lineup looks a lot less potent without Miguel Sano in the middle, there are a couple of interesting bats here at low prices. In fact, only Trevor Plouffe has a wRC+ below 100 vs RHP this season, while Dozier, Rosario, Kepler and Vargas add an ISO above .200. While Kepler (142 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top bat, Jorge Polanco (105 wRC+ vs RHP this season) may be the bargain for around $3K on either site out of the two spot. While the Minnesota bats don’t project among the strongest tonight, they may have enough value to fill a hole in your lineup with some salary relief.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario, Mike Foltynewicz, Jorge Polanco, Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, Kennys Vargas Dodgers are one of six teams currently implied to score more than 5.0 runs
Jake Thompson should eventually develop into a solid major league starter, but he is clearly not ready at this point. Through his first two starts, Thompson has a 5.24 SIERA accompanied by a 15.9% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate. He has an extremely small sample size of innings versus left-handed batters, making it impossible to put much stock in the numbers, but he has surrendered an atrocious 53.3% hard contact rate to lefties thus far. We can make a case for nearly every hitter in the Dodgers lineup but our primary exposure will want to come from Corey Seager (149 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .228 ISO vs RHP), Joc Pederson (145 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .280 ISO vs RHP), Justin Turner (139 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .241 wOBA vs RHP), Yasmani Grandal (123 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP), and Josh Reddick (133 wRC+, .364 wOBA, .178 ISO vs RHP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal, Josh Reddick, Jake Thompson Cameron Rupp OUT at home against Kazmir, but Ruiz has a 149 wRC+ vs LHP since last year
Scott Kazmir may be a potential fade candidate with projected ownership above 30% on DraftKings (Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Page) and a $9K price tag on FanDuel because although the Phillies are the worst offense in baseball both at home (69 wRC+) and vs LHP (72 wRC+), they have an impressive 19.4 HR/FB and 11.8 BB% over the last week and those are two categories where he’s struggled this season with six HRs over his last six starts, while walking seven of his last 48 batters. Additionally, the Phillies are now able to run out a couple of lefty mashers in the middle of that lineup. Cameron Rupp, who is one of those mashers, is OUT, but Carlos Ruiz still has a 149 wRC+ and .185 ISO vs LHP since last season, while Maikel Franco (119 wRC+, .234 ISO vs LHP career) and Tommy Joseph (114 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP) have both flashed significant power against southpaws. Contrarian minded players could add Cesar Hernandez (109 wRC+ vs RHP since last season), who has a 201 wRC+ over the last week as part of a sneaky stack.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Cesar Hernandez, Scott Kazmir Orioles are a sub par offense versus LHP, 81 wRC+, .296 wOBA, 21.9% K%
David Price has just as much upside as any pitcher on the board but has seriously lacked any sort of consistency this season. Price is currently in one of his rough stretches as he’s allowed 18 earned runs in his six starts since the All-Star Break while striking out no more than six in any start. His overall advanced stats (24.2% K%, 5.4% BB%, 3.49 SIERA) indicate we are still dealing with an ace starting pitcher. The Orioles definitely have some concerning right-handed power bats in their lineup, but they have actually been extremely mediocre against left-handed pitching. Price is a much better pitcher than Eduardo Rodriquez, who was dominating this Orioles offense before leaving the game early with an injury, and we could see that same type of success for Price tonight. Price also could make for a great tournament play on FanDuel where he is priced similar to other aces. In fact, Price checks in with a strong 5.048 ContR (Contrarian Rating) on the new RotoGrinders Projected Ownership page and is projected for roughly 8% ownership.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Carlos Carrasco has struck out 17 of his last 57 batters, costs less than $9K on DraftKings
Carlos Carrasco hasn’t had a smooth ride this season, but still has a well above average 23.6 K% this season and has gone seven innings in each of his last two starts, while striking out 17 of his last 57 batters. He appears to be the top bargain among pitchers on the upper half of the board for just $8.7K on DraftKings, but is a strong option on either site in a strong spot against the White Sox (87 wRC+ on the road, 88 wRC+ vs RHP) at home. Chicago is projected for the second lowest run total tonight (3.2). There’s no interest in the offense here.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Cubs are the top projected offense (5.9 runs) by half a run tonight facing Jimmy Nelson
The Cubs have the top run projection (5.9) by about a half a run tonight, facing Jimmy Nelson, who has struggled to get out batters from either side this season. His ERA is still hanging around four because nearly 20% of his runs have been unearned. While LHBs have hit him harder (37.8%), both lefties and righties have a wOBA above .335 against him this season. While even Jason Heyward (65 wRC+ vs RHP this season) may be viable for $3K or less on either site with this supporting cast, the top four are where the power lies today, each with a wRC+ above 120 vs RHP this season. Rizzo breaks away from the pack with a 162 wRC+ and .280 ISO. All four are projected to be popular (at least 10% owned) on DraftKings though, according to our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jason Heyward, Jimmy Nelson Tyler Naquin (168 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP) costs just $2.8K on FanDuel, facing a poor RHP
Anthony Ranaudo is with his third organization since debuting in 2014 and has had mostly below average strikeout rates in the minors with a -1.7 K-BB% in 65 major league innings that has led to an ERA with estimators above six. While RHBs have been a bit better against him in his short major league career so far, batters from either side have a wOBA above .340, hitting the ball hard at least one-third of the time. In a lineup projected for 5.3 runs with each of the first seven batters above a 110 wRC+ vs RHP this year, they are all viable, if not mostly expensive choices. Perhaps exposure is better gained on FanDuel, where Tyler Naquin (168 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP) continues to cost just $2.8K. Kipnis (248 wRC+ last seven days), Napoli (253 wRC+ last seven days) and Santana each add an ISO above .200 vs RHP this season. All three are very highly projected by the BAT tonight. Though costlier on DraftKings, both Napoli and Naquin are both projected for less than 5% ownership on DraftKings via our new Projected Ownership page with Napoli holding a strong 4.7 ContR (Contrarian Rating).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Tyler Naquin, Jason Kipnis Red Sox are currently implied to score an uncharacteristically low 4.3 runs
If you haven’t gotten on board the Dylan Bundy train yet, the time is now as space is filling up fast. Unfortunately, Bundy gets stuck with one of the worst, if not the worst, matchups in baseball for a right-handed pitcher in the Boston Red Sox. Bundy hasn’t really exhibited any type of weakness in his skill set to this point posting good strikeout (23.4%) and walk (6.9%) numbers while surrendering below average hard contact (29.0%). However, he does allow a decent amount of fly balls (43.4%) in a hitter’s ballpark. While we don’t want to go overboard with hitters against Bundy, taking a shot with a Red Sox bat or two like David Ortiz (178 wRC+, .442 wOBA, .361 ISO vs RHP), Mookie Betts (147 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .252 ISO vs RHP), or Jackie Bradley Jr. (142 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP) in tournaments is a more than viable route to take.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Dylan Bundy