DFS Alerts
Stephen Strasburg faces the worst offense in baseball vs RHP (81 wRC+, 8.6 HR/FB)
Stephen Strasburg against the worst offense in baseball vs RHP (81 wRC+, 8.6 HR/FB) is hardly in need of an endorsement here. He has the fourth highest K% and fifth highest K-BB (23.8%) in baseball with just a 26.1 Hard%. He also carries the highest price tag on either site, but if you can afford him, you play him, aside from potential high ownership considerations in GPPs. Even there, multiple lineup players are going to want at least some exposure to tonight’s top overall arm considering the spot he is in. While the Braves may only strike out about league average, his 30.9 K% has some room to spare and Atlanta just does not hit the ball hard. It’s a great run prevention spot as the Braves are projected for a slate low 2.7 runs, over half a run more than the next lowest offense.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds
First five Padre hitters tonight all above average hitters vs RHP this season
The Padres were, at one point, the worst offense in the majors vs RHP and still have just an 83 wRC+ and 17.0 K-BB% against them, but they are facing a poor pitcher tonight (4.66 ERA, 5.03 SIERA, 15.3 K%) and the top five batters in the lineup all have a wRC+ above 115 against RHP this year. While Jankowski (136 wRC+, .095 ISO vs RHP this season) has no power and costs $4.9K on DraftKings, the next four all have an ISO above .190 against righties. Dickerson (133 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP this season) and Schimpf (138 wRC+, .331 ISO vs RHP) still retain a cost below $4K on DraftKings, while all except Myers (116 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP this season) are below $3.5K on FanDuel. The top five Padres are a reasonable stack here, despite a projection below four runs, but Dickerson and Schimpf appear the potential value plays.
Other tagged players: Alex Dickerson, Travis Jankowski, Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, Logan Verrett Carlos Rodon has between 5.2 and 7 IP In 15 of 18 starts with 6 to 8 Ks 13 times
Carlos Rodon has continued to struggle with RHBs (.373 wOBA & 16 of his 17 HRs), but has been remarkably consistent overall, pitching between 5.2 and seven innings in 15 of his 18 starts. He’s struck out between six to eight batters (but never more) in 13 of those 18. That’s kind of outing should cover his price tag, especially for just $6.4K on DraftKings in a fairly neutral spot. Despite his issues with RHBs, he still has a league average 12.6 K-BB% and 28% hard hit rate against them.The major difference is his GB rate drops16 points and his weak contact rate 6.8 points to 16%. The Marlins have three lefty mashers in Stanton, Ozuna, and Prado, all of whom have a wRC+ above 150 vs LHP since last season, while only Prado (average power) doesn’t have an ISO vs LHP above .300 this season. While these bats aren’t cheap, only Stanton can really be considered expensive here and all are in play, but the lineup then fills out with bats that are only average or worse with very little power. Adeiny Hechavarria’s .118 ISO vs LHP is fourth highest in tonight’s lineup. This is a matchup which may have advantages on both sides.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Martin Prado Jake Arrieta and the Cubs large favorites (again) in the lone Friday afternoon game
The Cardinals visit Chicago today to take on Jake Arrieta and Vegas loves the odds of the home team coming away with a win as they have listed them as -200 favorites. The Cards counter with Adam Wainwright who had turned things around for a stretch before getting roughed up for 6 runs in his last start against Atlanta. Wainwright has allowed a .339 wOBA this season to LH bats but the Cubs only have Anthony Rizzo (batting 3rd and a definite option) and Miguel Montero (batting 7th and a secondary option) batting from that side of the plate. Outside of those two, only Kris Bryant has any true upside. Arrieta is of course a top option as he’s held hitters from both sides of the plate to less than .255 wOBA this season while striking out a batter per inning. That said, he hasn’t been exceptional in his two starts against the Cards this season so there is merit into looking to the night games for your SP. Most of the Cards bats can be safely avoided although Matt Carpenter (leading off) and Brandon Moss (batting third) could make for contrarian plays at their price points and spots in the lineup.
As reported by: St. Louis Cardinals official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Matt Carpenter
Several areas of concern in Kevin Roth's updated weather report
Kevin’s evening update calls for a slight chance of precipitation in several spots. The biggest area of concern is STL@CHC, although it’s probably not enough of a risk to justify fading hitters. For more details, read his full report on our Weather Page (linked below) and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
White Sox currently have the second-lowest implied run total on the slate (3.5)
Danny Duffy allows a limited number of line drives (20.0%) and an excessively high hard contact rate to right-handed batters (36.6%). What that means is that when opposing hitters put the ball in play, it is going high and far more often than not. While that sounds bad, Duffy actually has a lot going for him in this matchup. First off, his home park, Kauffman Stadium, is the sixth-worst ballpark in the majors for right-handed power. Duffy also has a 27.2% strikeout rate to right-handed hitters, that’s not quite the 36.1% he boasts against lefties, it’s still relatively elite. Lastly, there just isn’t really a ton to worry about in this White Sox lineup, as Todd Frazier and Tim Anderson are the only righties that have experienced any sort of success against left-handed pitching this season and they both strikeout nearly 30.0% of the time. Duffy is overpriced on certain sites (I’m looking at you, DraftKings), but that may make him an even better tournament play as it may be tough to pay up for him with bigger names priced cheaper.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Lester has struck out 22 of last 71 batters and Cards struggle vs LHP (92 wRC+)
Jon Lester has struck out 22 of his last 71 starts and seems to be back on track in his last two starts after a seven start stretch where he walked at least three batters five times (just a total of two in his last two). His 2.93 ERA still runs more than a half run below his 3.67 SIERA and 3.55 xFIP this year due to his .263 BABIP and career high 83.6 LOB%, so perhaps he’s not been that good, but the Cubs’ defense has allowed just a .255 BABIP. Lester is a fairly easy and relatively safe recommendation (as safe as baseball can be) against a Cardinals offense that most players by now know struggles against LHP (92 wRC+). Lester doesn’t have much of a platoon split with batters from both sides below a .290 wOBA against him since last season, but players are going to want to consider lefty masher Stephen Piscotty (172 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP since 2015), especially for just $3K on FanDuel. Matt Carpenter hits lefties well (117 wRC+, .198 ISO since 2015) and a bit night last night may have proven than he’s a bit healthier than thought recently.
Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Matt Carpenter Cain, Gordon, and Morales OUT for Royals at home against Miguel Gonzalez
Even with perhaps the top matchup, Miguel Gonzalez is likely not a pitcher on the radar of most DFS players tonight. His 17.6 K% is lowest on the board tonight with a SIERA (4.59) and xFIP (4.51) a half run higher than his ERA. He has significantly cut down on his HRs though, allowing just 10 with a 9.0 HR/FB after at least 24 with an above average HR rate in each of his last three seasons in Baltimore. His 31% hard contact is not any lower and about league average with little platoon split this season. Batters have hit him about league average from either side. While just a median 4.4 run projection tonight, players may gravitate towards cheap Kansas City bats because they’re facing a pitcher they’re probably not using. Eric Hosmer (130 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is probably both the top bat and top value here, within $200 of $3.5K on either site. New leadoff man Jarrod Dyson (84 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) becomes interesting for just $2.3K on FanDuel. Salvador Perez (105 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is very reasonably priced at $3.2K on DraftKings as well. Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon, and Kendrys Morales (suspension) are all OUT of the lineup tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jarrod Dyson, Salvador Perez, Miguel Gonzalez Carlos Martinez dominates RHB, taking Kris Bryant out of play, Cubs LHB are a different story
The Cubs are rolling out five left-handed batters tonight in a matchup with Carlos Martinez. This is significant because Martinez has been straight filth against right-handed hitters, posting a 24.9% strikeout rate, a 59.3% ground ball rate, and an absurdly low 23.8% hard contact rate. Martinez still manages to keep the ball on the ground fairly well against righties as well (54.2%), but only strikeouts right-handed batters at a 15.7% clip while allowing a 34.1% hard contact rate. The preferred route to take in this matchup would be to target the Cubs left-handed bats. Anthony Rizzo (166 wRC+, .421 wOBA, .296 ISO) is firmly in play as the top option here as he is one of the best power hitters against right-handed pitching in the majors. Dexter Fowler (129 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .186 ISO) and Ben Zobrist (126 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .177 ISO) hit righties well in their own right and would be the best choices to pair with Rizzo in Cubs stacks.
Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Carlos Martinez ARod bats cleanup, Tex and McCann OUT in Boston vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched a bit better recently, but still has gotten through six innings in just one of his last four starts. His 3.18 ERA is a bit lower than his league average peripherals (4.16 SIERA, 4.00 xFIP) since the break due to an 83.3 LOB%. Boston is a tough park for southpaws. He has a career 12.0 K-BB% with a 15.2 HR/FB at home and the Yankees have just an 18.1 K% vs LHP. It’s tough to absolutely hate him in a secondary role for just $5.2K on DraftKIngs, but players should consider focusing on some affordable Yankee bats here if paying up for pitching. Alex Rodriguez bats cleanup and perhaps players will want to use him just for the nostalgic effect as it may be the last time. It’s certainly not for his offense this year as he has just a 77 wRC+ vs LHP, but still an above average .178 ISO. You could do worse in the cleanup spot for less than $3K ($2.2K on FanDuel) and he does have a 95.5 mph aEV with a HR on 11 batted balls against the opposing pitcher tonight. Unfortunately, just Didi Gregorius (145 wRC+, .163 ISO) has an above average wRC+ against LHP this season and also the second highest ISO vs LHP behind ARod. The interesting thing is that Eduardo Rodriguez has exhibited a reverse platoon split in his short career with a .357 wOBA for LHBs, though batters from either side are right around .370 this year, while RHBs have 11 of his 12 HRs. Gary Sanchez is a very interesting Catcher play tonight. He’s been hitting well since callup and has a 204 wRC+ over the last week, while costing just about $2.5K on either site.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Eduardo Rodriguez, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez Mookie Betts out of the lineup Thursday, Red Sox still boast the second-highest implied run total of the slate
It’s absolutely astonishing how much Michael Pineda has struggled at times this season given his elite 27.5% strikeout rate, 20.9% K-BB%, and 14.3% SwStr%. Pineda is missing bats, getting strikeouts, and not walking a ton of batters, so what’s his issue? The problem Pineda has had this season is allowing entirely too much hard contact (33.0%) which has led to a massive 17.8% HR/FB rate that is showing no sign of regressing. In fact, Pineda has surrendered a MINIMUM hard contact rate of 37.5% in his last five starts. This could be a recipe for disaster against a Red Sox lineup that does a decent job of limiting strikeouts. Pineda does catch a break, however, with Betts being out of the lineup and David Ortiz possibly not being 100% after fouling a ball off his leg late in last night’s game. Pineda is certainly in play tonight for tournaments given his strikeout upside and the abbreviated slate, but the Red Sox lefties with some pop should be our preferred targets. The top options to consider would be David Ortiz (177 wRC+, .440 wOBA, .356 ISO vs RHP), Jackie Bradley Jr. (146 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .265 ISO vs RHP), and Travis Shaw (118 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .199 ISO vs RHP)
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: David Ortiz, Travis Shaw, Michael Pineda LHBs have a .355 wOBA and 37.1 Hard% vs Chacin since last season & Cleveland is the top home offense in baseball (125 wRC+)
Jhoulys Chacin has been pitching out of the bullpen since the beginning of July. He went four innings in three straight outings to end the month, so he may be able to give the Angels five, but then again, he only got to six innings four times in 15 starts. The K% has been up in the bullpen, but the SwStr% is not (7.5% over the last month, 7.8% on the season. A RHP facing Cleveland at home is not a good matchup. Their 125 team wRC+ at home is best in the majors. LHBs have a .355 wOBA and 37.1 Hard% against Chacin since last season. Players should strive for significant exposure to the LH portion of this lineup, although they’re likely to be fairly popular and particularly expensive on DraftKings. The top five are all at least $4.9K with Tyler Naquin costing $4.7K as well. Naquin (166 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP) is experiencing his first real slump with a -86 wRC+ over the last week, not because he’s not hitting the ball hard (40 Hard%), but due to a 57.1 K%. He still needs to be strongly considered for $2.7K on FanDuel on a night where affordable bats with some upside should be coveted. He has a 211 wRC+ at home. Kipnis (141 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Lindor (118 wRC+, .154 ISO vs RHP career) are premier middle infield options tonight if players can afford them.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Jhoulys Chacin Corey Kluber has gone at least 7 innings of last 8 starts, struck out less than 6 just twice since 1st start
On an incredibly small slate with several quality arms, Corey Kluber may be the best or at least the most consistent or highest floor. He’s increased an already strong strikeout and swinging strike rate over the last month (28.4%, 14.5%) and gone at least seven innings in seven of his last eight starts. The Angels are an average offense (101 wRC+ vs RHP), but predominantly right-handed and this is a pitcher who dominates RHBs with a wOBA below .250 this season and just .263 for his career. They have very little power aside from a couple of bats (8.7 HR/FB on the road, 9.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but the concern is obviously the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (15.4% vs RHP). Kluber has failed to get at least two outs in the seventh just six times in 22 starts this year and has struck out fewer than six just twice since his first start. He has a tremendous floor that players have to feel good about even in this spot with the Angels projected for a slate low 3.1 runs. However, with just four games, we have to look at bats even against good pitchers as potential options. While Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is never a poor play and once again a top OF bat, he’s not at all cheap in a tough matchup. Kole Calhoun (113 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be the value play here if necessary. He has a 167 wRC+ and 40.9 Hard% over the last week, costing less than $3K on either site with a 96.8 mph aEV against Kluber on his last seven recorded batted balls.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout Orioles bats should be under-owned today
With plenty of viable options out there, Baltimore bats should be under looked today as most will avoid them playing in a pitcher’s park in Oakland. However, the Orioles are facing a young SP who has been pitching out of the bullpen and hasn’t topped 51 pitches in more than two months. The Orioles are second in the league in wOBA and ISO against RHP and the LH bats of Hyun Soo-Kim, Chris Davis, and Pedro Alvarez are two bats worth targeting. Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo are also viable targets, especially if you’re making an Orioles stack. Chris Tillman will pitch for Baltimore and while he’s been more than respectable this season, the A’s don’t strikeout much (4th best in the league) so the upside is limited. He might be worth a flyer if you’re running multiple lineups but Syndergaard and Taillon are the preferred SP plays.
As reported by: Roch Kubatko on Twitter Other tagged players: Chris Tillman Just a few players worth targeting from Oakland today
With rookie Andrew Triggs on the mound and likely on a pitch limitation, he’s an easy fade for the Athletics today. The offense has a decent matchup against Chris Tillman but there are better spots to look for your offensive production today. If you are going to target the Oakland lineup, Stephen Vogt is the top option given his position (catcher) and spot in the lineup. Khris Davis gets the day off but Coco Crisp, Marcus Semien, and Danny Valencia are all secondary options if you want to take a chance on some Oakland bats.
As reported by: Susan Slusser on Twitter