DFS Alerts
"Every outdoor game that is not in Cali has at least a chance of a delay" according to Kevin's late update
When Kevin gives us three plus paragraphs before the first game, DFS baseballers know they’re in for a wild weather ride tonight. Games in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Texas and Minnesota are all graded the riskiest (YELLOW/ORANGE). Players are going to want to be sure to read Kevin’s full, detailed report on our Weather Page (linked below) and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further important updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page
Jose Iglesias scratched Friday
Andrew Romine will now play play SS and bat ninth. This doesn’t change much from a DFS perspective.
As reported by: Jason Beck
Rangers have projected total of 5.7 runs, but no real stand out bats against a revitalized Anibal Sanchez
The Texas Rangers are projected for the second highest run total on the slate (5.7 runs), but there is not a single bat in the top eight below $3.8K on DK with only Moreland (105 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP this season) and Mazara (120 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP) below $3.5K on FanDuel (each are $3K). Only Jonathan Lucroy tops Mazara’s wRC+ with a 128 mark against RHP and Rougned Odor (.237 ISO) is the only batter with more power than Moreland against RHP. The high cost seems about accurate as there is not a real single thumper in the group, which makes one wonder if stacking is the only way to play this lineup, hoping they all feed off each other. The other issue is that Anibal Sanchez has been quite good since returning to the rotation after the break. He has twice struck out 10 with a 25.7 K% in those starts and just a 3.12 ERA with a 3.40 SIERA. He was a pretty good pitcher not too many years ago.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Jonathan Lucroy, Anibal Sanchez Astros RHB in sneaky good spot on the road versus Francisco Liriano and the Blue Jays
This is a tough spot to analyze, with boom or bust potential on both sides. Francisco Liriano has had a tendency to be bad more often than good this season, putting the Houston side of this mathcup more in play. The massive 12.9% walk rate and 4.64 SIERA have led to a lot of bad starts for Liriano, and this Astros lineup has the talent and power to make things go downhill quickly. Liriano has a decent strikeout rate (21.4%) against right-handed hitters, but a 13.9% walk rate and 34.0% hard contact rate has led to a high 1.59 HR/9 allowed to righties. The big three at the top of the Astros order all hit left-handed pitching extremely well. Jose Altuve (194 wRC+, .459 wOBA, .259 ISO vs LHP), George Springer (163 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .303 ISO vs LHP), and Carlos Correa (.153 ISO vs LHP) should all be the top options here. Evan Gattis (127 wRC+, .361 wOBA, .291 ISO vs LHP) is a nice one off play at a shallow catcher position and can be included as a part of a stack as well. A full Astros stack is certainly in play for tournaments given the control issues of Liriano.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis, Francisco Liriano
Yu Darvish leads baseball with a 36.4 K% over the last month
Yu Darvish has dominated since returning from TJS. He’s played strikeout bingo, hitting every number on the card between five and 11 except for 10 in his eight starts, going at least six innings in each of his last four. If qualified, he would be second in baseball with a 34.1 K% right behind Jose Fernandez. His 36.4 K% over the last month leads Fernandez for best in baseball by over three points and a 24.1% rate of weak contact would be top five in baseball as well. The Tigers are not an easy matchup (104 wRC+ vs RHP) in a tough park, but they do strike out a bit more than average (21.6% vs RHP) and have just a 6.8 HR/FB over the last week. Darvish might be the top value on FanDuel for just under $10K, while also a strong play for $1.5K more on DraftKings with massive upside. There is little interest in Detroit bats here with Darvish holding RHBs to a .262 wOBA this season.
Walker (228) and Bruce (74) are only bats in Mets lineup with a wRC+ above 25 over the last week
Paul Clemens is a terrible pitcher (4.61 ERA, 5.18 SIERA, 5.8 SwStr%) facing an ice cold team (46 wRC+, 20.0 K-BB% over the last week) in a negative run environment. You’d think there would be some usable bats here, but only Neil Walker (113 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a wRC+ above 75 over the last week (228) and then only Jay Bruce (109 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015) joins him above 25 or with a hard hit rate above 27%. While batters from either side have a hard hit rate above 40% this season, RHBs actually have a much higher .442 wOBA, so perhaps the rookie T.J. Rivera, who just made his debut a couple of days ago, is worth a $2.7K or less price tag in the second spot.
Other tagged players: T.J. Rivera, Jay Bruce, Paul Clemens Joey Votto has a 163 wRC+ vs RHP, 162 wRC+ at home since last season, facing Jimmy Nelson (.349 wOBA vs RHBs this year)
Jimmy Nelson has allowed 74 runs this year, 20% of which have been unearned, and he still has a 4.02 ERA. He had been a guy who dominated RHBs, while struggling with LHBs, which might make him a cheap arm that players could consider here, but that’s not even the case anymore as RHBs have a .331 wOBA against him in 2016. Oh, don’t worry, LHBs still smash him (.349 wOBA, 38.3 Hard% this season with 10 HRs), making Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP since 2015) a top overall bat tonight. He adds even more consistency with a 162 wRC+ at home since last season and 165 wRC+ over the last week. In nine batted balls since last season, he does not have a HR against Nelson, but solid 94.1 mph aEV.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Jimmy Nelson Red Sox bats in the best spot on the slate, Vegas agrees with their 5.9 implied run projection
Patrick Corbin is having a rough season, as he owns a 5.37 ERA that is accompanied by a 4.60 SIERA that shows he hasn’t been much better than that. He has allowed a minimum of three earned runs in all but seven starts this season, thus significantly raising the floor and ceiling of his opponents. Corbin has posted just a 14.7% strikeout rate to right-handed batters while allowing a massive 38.8% hard contact rate. Even the top Boston left-handed hitters are in play for tournaments and stacks against Corbin, as he has a high 13.0% walk rate and 42.5% hard contact rate to lefties. While it’s true the Red Sox have been better against right-handed pitching this season, they still rank third in the majors in wOBA versus left-handed pitching. The top Red Sox bats to target would be Hanley Ramirez (164 wRC+, .421 wOBA, .250 ISO vs LHP), Xander Bogaerts (129 wRC+, .370 wOBA vs LHP), and Mookie Betts (115 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .255 ISO vs LHP). If stacking up Boston, we will have to consider Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and Jackie Bradley Jr. as well, even with their sub par numbers (for them) against left-handed pitching.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Patrick Corbin Carlos Gonzalez OUT in Philly for Jake Thompson's second major league start
Jake Thompson was/is a highly regarded prospect that came over in the Cole Hamels trade. In fact, he may have been the prize at the time of the trade, though other arms have stood out more and may have passed him since. He had just an average K% split between the Phillies and Rangers AA systems last year and has dropped to 16.8% at AAA this season. His first start in San Diego was a disaster, striking out just one of 22 batters and lasting less than five innings with four runs on the board before he got out of the first. In a small park, though not incredibly positive run environment in Philadelphia, players can look towards a few bats in the top half of the order who have been at least average on the road and better than that against RHP on top of being hot over the last week. Those include Blackmon (117 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP this season) with a 243 wRC+ over the last week, Arenado (122 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP this season) with a 209 wRC+ over the last week, and Dahl (151 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP) with a 129 wRC+ over the last week. Only Dahl doesn’t carry a very high price tag though. With Carlos Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds out, Ben Paulsen returns to the lineup and costs just $2.1K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Ben Paulsen, Jake Thompson Evan Longoria has six career HRs (15 extra-base hits) against C.C. Sabathia
C.C. Sabathia has done an exceptional job of limiting hard contact (24.7%) and also inducing weak contact (also 24.7%) this season. For much of the season, it’s allowed him to run a well below average HR rate and keep his ERA reasonable, but we knew it was unsustainable and he’s allowed two HRs in each of his last three starts. While he may not turn into a HR machine because the contact hasn’t been that much harder, this is still a terrible park for a pitcher who does not have the stuff he used to and now has increased walk rate as he tries to nibble around the plate. His mistakes will still get pounded and he’s made a lot of them over the years to Evan Longoria, who has 81 career PAs against Sabathia, in which he’s homered eight times with 15 extra-base hits, but has just an 88.4 mph aEV on seven recorded batted balls by Statcast since last season. He, Forsythe, and Mikie Mahtook all have mash LHP with a wRC+ above 140 and 200+ ISO since last season. Mahtook, despite doing nothing against a southpaw last night, remains a bargain OF option at $2.5K on either site. RHBs have a .347 wOBA since last season against Sabathia and though just .316 this season they have 11 of his 13 HRs allowed.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Mikie Mahtook, CC Sabathia Gray owns a 11.6% SwStr% and gets prime matchup with Philadelphia on the road
Gray is graced with one of the best park adjusted matchups of any pitcher on tonight’s slate. Even without the benefit of a great matchup against the Phillies, Gray would still need to be in consideration based on his season long metrics alone. Those metrics come out to a 25.1% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate, and a 3.70 SIERA. Gray is also coming off only his second terrible start of this season which may lower ownership a bit due to recency bias. The matchup against the Phillies doesn’t get much better for a right-handed pitcher, as Philadelphia ranks 28th in team wOBA versus RHP and strikeout at 21.5% clip. Gray doesn’t have any drastic splits against batters from either side of the plate, putting him in a great position to rack up strikeouts and more-than-likely walk away with the win.
As reported by: FanGraphs Joe Musgrove has struck out 14 of first 41 batters with just one walk, but six Blue Jays have a .200+ ISO vs RHP
While many big pitching prospects have the ability to blow batters away throughout the minors, but need to work on their control, Joe Musgrave has had no control issues with a walk rate below 5% throughout the minors. In fact, he wasn’t even much of a prospect until he started blowing batters away at more than a 25% clip along with the near immaculate control in AA last year and again AAA this season. He has kept that going in the majors, striking out 14 of his first 41 batters with only a single walk, including eight of 15 of these Blue Jays last week. He may have caught them by surprised coming out of the bullpen, so they may be more prepared for him tonight, while DraftKings has immediately been aggressive in pricing him $8.3K tonight, but this is a pitcher with some upside and a potential GPP sleeper for $6K on FanDuel. This is a Toronto lineup that hits RHP well at the top with both Travis and Donaldson above a 150 wRC+ and .230 ISO vs RHP this season, while Encarnacion adds a 135 wRC+ and .267 ISO. In fact, Martin is the only batter in the first seven tonight with an ISO below .200 vs RHP this season.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Edwin Encarnacion, Devon Travis Diamondbacks implied run total continues to decrease, currently sitting at 3.6 runs
Price has been one the hardest starting pitchers to figure out this season as he’s gone through stretches of being absolutely dominate and posting ace-like strikeout totals, while he’s also had stretches like the one he’s currently in where he is not so dominant. Since the All-Star break, Price has posted a 7.2% K-BB%. This is extra concerning because walks have not been a problem in these starts, meaning his strikeout totals have really died out (13.7% K%). The silver lining here is that Price produced a 15.0% SwStr% (#elite) in his last start against the Dodgers after not eclipsing 8.3% in any of his four previous starts. So Price, just maybe, is making strides in getting back to his normal, consistent self. Price has had seven double digit strikeout games this season to go along with a respectable 3.47 SIERA, so he definitely possesses the upside needed in tournaments in any matchup. While the Diamondbacks typically hit left-handed pitching better, there are strikeouts to be had up and down this order, only increasing the possible upside for Price. There are better options for cash games on this slate, but Price should be one of the better tournament plays on the board.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Alex Rodriguez ($696 on FanDuel) bats 3rd in final game against Archer
Chris Archer has struck out 19 of his last 52 on the road with one of those starts in Colorado and has been pitching better away from home over the last couple of months. He’s dropped his walk rate down to league average, while maintaining and even increasing an elite strikeout rate with a reduced 28.2 Hard% and league average 13.2 HR/FB since the beginning of July. The Yankees have been unable to take much advantage of the short RF porch against RHP (87 wRC+, 28.4 Hard%, 11.9 HR/FB). This isn’t as concerning a matchup for him as it would be in years past. Archer is a strong play tonight, made stronger by the Yankees more concerned about doing service to Alex Rodriguez (47 wRC+ vs RHP this season) in his last game, by batting him third tonight. While he has to be considered for the special $696 price on FanDuel, where he’d hit value with a walk or ground out RBI, there’s really no interest in Yankee bats. ARod does have two HRs in 18 career PAs with a 104 mph aEV against Archer in six batted balls since last season, but he is just not generating any bat at all anymore. Those numbers may as well have been a decade ago.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Chris Archer The Angels strike out just 15.4% vs RHP, but Carlos Carrasco is just $6.9K on DraftKings
The Angels strike out a major league low 15.4% vs RHP and Carlos Carrasco has seen a drop in his K% this year, but it’s still above average (23.4%), while he struck out nine Yankees in his last start and the offense he’s facing is devoid of power (9.0 HR/FB on the road, 9.4 HR/FB vs RHP). While Carrasco would appear usable on FanDuel at his expected price of $9.7K as the favorite (-150), he might be the top value play for just $6.9K on DraftKings. He is more than capable of blowing that price tag out of the water. Mike Trout (173 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the lone strong bat in the lineup, though may lean too expensive tonight against a tough pitcher. Kole Calhoun (112 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 165 wRC+ over the last week and could provide some value for $2.6K on FanDuel. No other bat in the lineup has a wRC+ above 75 over the last week and the Angels are projected for just 3.5 runs tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun