DFS Alerts

Kevin's evening weather update is posted

Kevin mentions just a few spots with a small risk of some rain tonight, but nowhere that should be disruptive enough to significantly interrupt play. Read his full report on our Weather Page (linked below) and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) in case anything changes.

Hector Santiago has a 3.62 ERA over the last month, but estimators above five with a 6.5 SwStr% and 35.4 Hard%

Hector Santiago has just a 3.62 ERA over the last month, but estimators above five with just a 6.5 SwStr% behind his 21.0 K% along with a familiar 35.4 Hard%. The Astros are the coldest offense in baseball though, with a 44 wRC+, 19.4 K-BB%, 26.9 Hard% and 0.0 HR/FB (NO HOME RUNS) over the last week! Something has to give and the bet should probably be on good RHBs against LHP in Jose Altuve (174 wRC+, .201 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who is the only hot hitter in the lineup (140 wRC+, 42.1 Hard% last seven days) and George Springer (155 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP since 2015). Evan Gattis adds a 122 wRC+ and .284 ISO vs southpaws this season. RHBs have a .323 wOBA and 35.6 Hard% against Santiago since last season.

Tom Koehler comes into this start having not allowed more than one earned run in his past three starts

Koehler has actually pitched respectably of late, but is still a mediocre pitcher (to put it nicely) with roughly league average hard contact (30.1%) and strikeout rates (19.5%) to left-handed batters while issuing a high number of walks (10.9% BB%). Brandon Belt (143 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .198 ISO) sports an impressive batting profile against right-handed pitching with strong plate skills, high hard contact, and line drives. Belt has also been heating up lately, posting a .413 wOBA and ,225 ISO over the last two weeks. Brandon Crawford (.181 ISO vs RHP) is the other lefty in the Giants order that we would want to primarily target in this matchup along with Belt. Hunter Pence and Buster Posey (.150 ISO vs RHP) both sacrifice the platoon advantage against Koehler but certainly have the upside to warrant consideration as one offs or inclusion in San Francisco stacks.

Brewers projected for five runs against a pitcher with a 14.8 BB%.

It’s not often the Brewers are projected for five runs, but it’s not often they face a pitcher the caliber of Tyrell Jenkins, who has failed to strike out more than he’s walked in each of his five starts. Batters from either side have a wOBA just above .360 against him so far and while that’s had a lot to do with terrible control, a 14.8 BB% fits right in with the Milwaukee offense (9.4 BB% vs RHP) that likes to run. Despite just Braun (125 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Villar (113 wRC+) having an above average wRC+ vs RHP since last season, this is an inexpensive lineup with some value on it all the way through with the potential exception of paying $4.8K for Hernan Perez (63 wRC+, .070 ISO vs RHP since 2015) on DraftKings. Both Braun and Villar have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week as does Keon Broxton, who adds a 55.6 Hard% and costs just $2.9K on FanDuel ($3.8K on DraftKings). Villar is expensive (as is Braun), but he’s tied for the major league lead with 45 SBs.

LHBs have a .385 wOBA and 37.4 Hard% against Wily Peralta since last season

Wily Peralta was demoted to AAA two months ago where he’s been about league average with an 11.6 K-BB%. He was terrible in 13 major league starts this year with a 4.9 K-BB%, 6.68 ERA and 4.99 SIERA. His 49.1 GB% is the lowest of his career with a 36.4 Hard%. Players from either side have a .385 wOBA against him since last season, but LHBs hit him significantly harder (37.4 Hard%). Freddie Freeman (137 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Nick Markakis (117 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) project very strongly tonight, the latter with a 195 wRC+ over the last week and a $2.6K price tag on FanDuel. It’s not often we see the Braves projected for 4.5 runs, though their priced up a bit too for the most part tonight.

Athletics implied run total on the rise, currently projected at 4.3 runs in prime matchup with Wade Miley

Miley is as marginal of a left-handed pitcher as there is in the majors. He has no definable skills that jump out in his pitching profile with below-average strikeouts (17.7%), solid control (6.9% BB%) and no significant lean towards ground balls or fly balls. Miley essentially is a strike-thrower that relies heavily on BABIP in order to have any sort of success. Danny Valencia (185 wRC+, .441 wOBA, .271 ISO) is the top play in the Athletics lineup by a large margin as he is a notorious lefty-masher and hasn’t slowed down this year versus left-handed pitching. Jake Smollinski (196 wRC+, .457 wOBA, .322 ISO vs LHP) and Marcus Semien (147 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .320 ISO vs LHP) find themselves at the top of the order making them the ideal options to pair with Valencia in Oakland stacks. Khris Davis (.227 ISO vs LHP) actually has hit right-handed pitching better this season, but always provides power upside and is definitely in consideration if stacking up the Athletics.

Look for the luck of the Irish to run out on Brandon Finnegan tonight

Finnegan has managed to not allow a run in his two previous starts, which is great, but certainly not enough to inspire enough confidence for us to consider rostering him. Finnegan is a pitcher with a dismal 10.9% walk rate, 40.7% hard contact rate, and 4.96 xFIP against right-handed batters. Stephen Piscotty (191 wRC+, .456 wOBA, .305 ISO) is by the best one-off option of all the Cardinals batters as he has mashed left-handed pitching and has exhibited elite plate skills (13.8% K% and 13% BB%) this season. Matt Carpenter (130 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .196 ISO vs LHP) and Matt Holliday (.229 ISO vs LHP) would be the best secondary plays to accompany Piscotty in a little Cards mini-stack.

Mike Leake costs just $4.5K on DraftKings in a great spot at home against the Reds

Mike Leake has some success striking out 21 of 50 Padres and Brewers a few starts back with increased usage of his slider. While the Reds would now fall under the same umbrella of a poor, predominantly RH lineup, he did not do the same in his last start against his old team in Cincinnati (12.5% sliders, striking out just two with seven runs). Perhaps back home in a friendlier park, he’ll revert to the slider more often. The Reds don’t strike out as often as those other two teams, but above 21% of the time on the road, where they have a 79 wRC+ and vs RHP (85 wRC+). Though Leake doesn’t often show that kind of upside, this is a great spot to take a chance he might again for just $4.5K on DraftKings, as a compliment to Scherzer perhaps? Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the one strong bat vs RHP remaining in this lineup, but is expensive and on an island for a lineup projected for just 3.6 runs.

Marlins have three lefty mashers (160+ wRC+ vs LHP) against an overpriced Matt Moore

Matt Moore has just a 2.45 ERA over the last month, but estimators more than double with just a 16.2 K%, 11.8 BB% and .213 BABIP. Three of his 12 runs have also been unearned. His $8K or higher price tag in this spot is unwarranted in a somewhat neutral matchup. RHBs have a .334 wOBA against Moore since last season and the Marlins do have three batters (Stanton, Prado, and Ozuna) who hammer LHP, all with a wRC+ above 160 since last season. Stanton adds a .403 ISO against southpaws since 2015, Ozuna .351 ISO this season, and Prado just about average power (.145 ISO). None are particularly cheap, except Prado for $2.7K on FanDuel. For those looking for a punt catcher, Jeff Mathis has a 129 wRC+ and .231 ISO vs LHP since last season and costs just $2.5K or less on either site (the bare minimum on FD).

Mike Fiers is allowing 1.37 HR/9 to RHB this season

Fiers seems to have taken a step back this season, especially in the strikeout department (17.0% K%). Fiers struggles boil down to the aforementioned lack of strikeouts and surrendering a massive amount of hard contact (33.1% to LHB and 39.6% to RHB). Fiers also struggles with fly balls a bit more to right-handed batters as reflected in 35.6% fly ball rate he allows compared to 28.9% to batters from the left side. The Twins a couple right-handed bats in Miguel Sano (.224 ISO vs RHP) and Brian Dozier (.197 ISO vs RHP) that can certainly take advantage of the hard contact and fly balls Fiers allows. We shouldn’t aim to load up on Twins bats as home run hunting should be the preferred strategy here, but Max Kepler (153 wRC+, .399 wOBA, .336 ISO) and Joe Mauer (126 wRC+, .361 wOBA) are also firmly in play given their success against right-handed pitching.

Napoli sits in NL park against tonight's top pitcher tonight (Scherzer)

Max Scherzer is the unquestioned top pitcher tonight and a guy players should look to build around on either site. He has the highest floor and ceiling with the third best K% and K-BB% in baseball with the second best SwStr%. He did allow two HRs in his last start and now 24 on the season, but has still allowed more than two ERs just three times in his last 16 starts with at least 10 strikeouts nine times in those outings without going below six. Cleveland has a 107 wRC+ vs RHP, but a 14.8 K-BB% on the road and lose their cleanup hitter (Mike Napoli), which may actually help their contact rate, but really hurts their power potential with Jose Ramirez (.121 ISO vs RHP this season) batting cleanup. There is a tiny bit of interest in one very cheap Cleveland bat against a HR prone pitcher. Tyler Naquin (170 wRC+, .295 ISO vs RHP) moves up to sixth tonight and costs less than $3K on either site. While Carlos Santana (133 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP this season) may be just as likely to go deep, he costs $600 more on DraftKings. At just 3.17 runs, Cleveland has the second lowest run projection tonight.

Drew Smyly has been stellar at times this season, but has also been remarkably inconsistent, while allowing a ton of home runs to right-handed batters (1.55 HR/9) due to his fly ball pitching profile (47.0% FB%). There is definitely some upside in Smyly tonight with his 24.3% strikeout, but there is certainly a ton of risk given the ballpark downgrade and the power up and down this Toronto lineup. Devon Travis continues to bat lead off for the Blue Jays and will continue to be an elite play in good matchups where he is reasonable priced. Smyly throws a ton of strikes which definitely works right into the wheelhouse of Travis as he prefers to be hacking when at the plate. The remaining options to consider for the Blue Jays are all the usual suspects versus left-handed pitching, Josh Donaldson (171 wRC+, .427 wOBA, .255 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (144 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .323 ISO), Jose Bautista (.209 ISO), and Troy Tulowitzki (.177 ISO).

Lorenzo Can has a 165 wRC vs LHP since 2015 and three HRs (45 PAs) against Sale

Chris Sale struck out 10 batters for the first time this season in his last start, but had just an average 9.3 SwStr% and has been inconsistent in the strikeout department with his BABIP going up and down all season. He also faces a Kansas City offense that strikes out a bit below average vs LHP, but don’t walk and have just a 10.0 HR/FB at home. He comes at the second highest cost on either site tonight, but is also probably the second best pitcher and deserves strong consideration. This lineup has a lot of experience facing Sale with seven at 12 PAs or more and four at 37 or more. They have nine career HRs against him, but nobody with an exceptionally high exit velocity (Hosmer 93 mph highest on 10 batted balls). Lorenzo Cain has mauled LHP (165 wRC+, .237 ISO since 2015) and leads the team with three HRs against Sale (seven extra-base hits) in 45 career PAs. He’s a reasonable and potentially contrarian play for around $3K on either site. New leadoff man Paulo Orlando (152 wRC+ vs LHP this season) is another consideration for exactly $3K on either site. He has a HR against Sale in just 12 opportunities. Cheslor Cuthbert (146 wRC+, .197 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $2.6K on either site.

Blue Jays currently check-in with the second-highest implied run total on the slate

Drew Smyly has been stellar at times this season, but has also been remarkably inconsistent, while allowing a ton of home runs to right-handed batters (1.55 HR/9) due to his fly ball pitching profile (47.0% FB%). There is definitely some upside in Smyly tonight with his 24.3% strikeout, but there is certainly a ton of risk given the ballpark downgrade and the power up and down this Toronto lineup. Devon Travis continues to bat lead off for the Blue Jays and will continue to be an elite play in good matchups where he is reasonable priced. Smyly throws a ton of strikes which definitely works right into the wheelhouse of Travis as he prefers to be hacking when at the plate. The remaining options to consider for the Blue Jays are all the usual suspects versus left-handed pitching, Josh Donaldson (171 wRC+, .427 wOBA, .255 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (144 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .323 ISO), Jose Bautista (.209 ISO), and Troy Tulowitzki (.177 ISO).

Steven Matz has pitched a bit better than results lately, but Arizona has a few lefty mashing bats

While the Diamondacks mash LHP (112 wRC+, 34.3 Hard%, 20.0 HR/FB) a lot of that is due to their home park, while they are in a much more negative run environment tonight against a ground ball pitcher (50.4%) without one of their most potent RH bats against southpaws (Welington Castillo). Steven Matz pitched better than the results in his last start, striking out six of 25 Yankees with six of seven base runners scoring. While he’s struck out no more than six, he’s struck out no fewer than five in any of his last seven starts either, going at least six innings in five of his last six. You’d like a bit more upside from a $9K pitcher, but he can be used on either site tonight with a positive expectation and Arizona projected for just 3.3 runs. There are three interesting bats, each with a wRC+ above 150 and ISO above .230 against LHP this year. Again, much of that is due to a great home park, but those numbers are strong enough that they may translate into something positive here at reasonable or inexpensive prices. Paul Goldschmidt has to be considered at no more than $4.3K on either site against a lefty. Yasmany Tomas costs $3.2K on FanDuel and adds a 238 wRC+ over the last week. Rickie Weeks bats cleanup and costs just $2.3K on FanDuel ($3.6K on DraftKings).