DFS Alerts
Greinke returns from DL stint, but we should temper expections, if not avoid him altogether
Greinke is finally set to make his return from the DL after missing time with an oblique injury. We’re going to have to expect that Greinke is not yet back to full strength and may not be in line for his standard allotment of pitches in this game. The Diamondbacks bullpen may have to pick up some substantial innings in this spot, which will work in favor of the Mets offense, as the Arizona bullpen has been horrendous all season. With Greinke not really receiving any type of discount around the industry, it will be extremely easy to avoid Greinke in all formats until he proves he is healthy or his price decreases. The Mets lineup is not super inspiring but Jay Bruce (129 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .306 ISO), James Loney (129 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .159 ISO vs RHP), Michael Conforto (120 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .239 ISO vs RHP), Curtis Granderson (.214 ISO vs RHP), and Neil Walker (.158 ISO vs RHP) can all be considered as one offs orpart of a stack in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Relief Brief Article Other tagged players: James Loney, Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, Zack Greinke
Chad Kuhl has a 52.5% fly ball rate with a 40.3% hard contact
Chad Kuhl has a 16.2 K% and 4.19 ERA/4.06 FIP through four major league starts, but an xFIP and SIERA about a run higher due to just two HRs. While it’s still way too early to say, he pitches in a park that greatly suppresses RH power, so we may not expect him to give up a ton of HRs, but his batted ball profile is not pretty for any park with a 52.5% fly ball rate and 30.6 Hard-Soft%. LHBs have a .353 wOBA against him, while batters from both sides have hit the ball hard more than 39% of the time. Playing more fairly to LH power, players might want to look at Alex Dickerson (136 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP career) and Ryan Schimpf (139 wRC+, .342 ISO vs RHP), who have shown massive power in a still small sample. Both cost $3.7K or less on either site in the middle of this San Diego lineup. Myers and Solarte add above average bats with an ISO right around .200 against RHP this year in larger samples, but also generally higher price tags, though Solarte is just $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Alex Dickerson, Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers, Chad Kuhl
The Cubs have the top run projection (5.5) at Wrigley against fly ball machine Jered Weaver
The Cubs are the top projected offense (5.5 runs) against Jered Weaver (5.11 ERA, 5.55 SIERA). He has just an 11.3 HR/FB, but that’s led to 23 of them with a 0.61 GB/FB and he gets a significant park downgrade at Wrigley tonight against an offense with some power, though wind doesn’t appear to be too much of a factor as of this afternoon. Batters from either side have about a .340 wOBA against Weaver since last season, though RHBs have a 33.7 Hard% some four points higher with HRs being split nearly evenly. Nearly every batter in the lineup projects well, perhaps aside from Jason Heyward (73 wRC+ vs RHP this season). Bryant (137 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP career) and Rizzo (152 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top pay up for bats tonight, while Soler (228 wRC+, 55.6 Hard% last seven days) may be the bargain on FanDuel ($2.9K). Willson Contreras (112 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP) bats eighth, but is an affordable Catcher for potentially the most potent offense tonight. This is a lineup players should look to find ways to get significant exposure to tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, Jered Weaver, Jorge Soler, Willson Contreras Bogaerts OUT tonight, Ortiz has three HRs against Severino in five PAs
Luis Severino has struck out 10 of 29 batters in three relief appearances lasting 8.1 innings, including 4.1 innings in his last outing, but hasn’t started a major league game since May. He’s throwing basically a fastball and slider, ditching the changeup in these relief appearances, averaging 96.7 mph on his fastball. While two pitches is generally not enough for a starter, he was struggling more against RHBs (.338 wOBA) than LHBs (.313 wOBA), so perhaps a fastball/slider combination may benefit him more. He’s inexpensive facing the best home offense vs RHP in baseball (123 wRC+ at home, 115 wRC+ vs RHP), but the Red Sox also have just a 94 wRC+ since the All Star break. Severino may be of some interest on DraftKings for just $5.6K. With the Red Sox projected for a second best 5.3 runs, ownership is sure to be very low. Xander Bogaerts sits for the Red Sox tonight with Mookie Betts (127 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is one of two obvious top bat for an expensive lineup. David Ortiz (169 wRC+, .338 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a -12 wRC+ over the last week, but also a 58.3 Hard% and has homered three times in just five PAs against Severino with a 101 mph aEV on those five batted balls.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Luis Severino Rangers visit Coors in only afternoon game
Most people won’t be able to utilize the highest projected scoring game of the day as it’s the only afternoon game and the options for all day slates are limited. For those that are, however, it’s a game to target from an offensive perspective for sure as it has a 12 run total. A.J. Griffin hasn’t made it out of the sixth inning in nine consecutive starts and Tyler Chatwood struggles (as do most SP’s) pitching in Coors. Most bats are in play from both sides but the top targets are Ian Desmond, Rougned Odor, Carlos Beltran, and Adrian Beltre from the Rangers and Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and David Dahl from the Rockies.
As reported by: Jeff Wilson on Twitter Other tagged players: Rougned Odor
Kendall Graveman owns a 6.1% K-BB% to LHB this season
The Orioles are in a great spot against Kendall Graveman despite the negative park shift. Graveman has a difficult time striking out batters (14.1% K%) and really only has an average batted ball profile to left-handed batters. This sets up well for a few of the Orioles lefties that have some strikeout tendencies like Pedro Alvarez (137 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .294 ISO vs RHP), Chris Davis (.232 ISO vs RHP), and Matt Wieters (.160 ISO vs RHP). Hyun-Soo Kim (149 wRC+, .397 wOBA vs RHP) lacks some power upside but should be able to take advantage of Graveman and his 33.3% hard contact rate to left-handed batters. If looking to attack Graveman from the right side of the plate, Manny Machado (141 wRC+, .384 wOBA, .265 ISO vs RHP) and Mark Trumbo (139 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP) should have no problems putting the ball in play given the minuscule 11.7% strikeout Graveman has against right-handed batters.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Hyun-Soo Kim, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Kendall Graveman LHBs have a .345 wOBA with a 15.0 HR/FB vs Zach Eflin
The Dodgers are projected for 4.8 runs against a pitcher who just does not miss bats, but rarely walks anyone either. LHBs have a .345 wOBA against Zach Eflin with a 32.4 Hard% and six HRs (15.0 HR/FB). Aside from the reverse platoon Justin Turner, the Dodgers have wisely stacked the lineup with LHBs tonight. Each of the top seven have a wRC+ above 100 vs RHP this season and only Gonzalez (who has a 195 wRC+ over the last week) and Utley have an ISO below .195. Yasmani Grandal (116 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 290 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week. There are several reasonably priced strong bats that players should consider tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Justin Turner, Zach Eflin Urias may be limited, but faces worst offense in baseball vs LHP (72 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB%)
Julio Urias was last seen allowing three runs out of the bullpen, working three innings in Colorado. He’s started one major league game over the last month, in which he pitched well (one run, four strikeouts, 17 batters faced), but was pulled after four innings and 77 pitches. He’ll likely face additional restrictions here in this spot start, but is an immensely talented arm in the premium spot tonight. The Phillies have the worst offense in the majors vs LHP (72 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB%, 8.3 HR/FB, 6.5 Hard-Soft%). Projecting him for 75 pitches at around $7K is like projecting him for 100 pitches at just above $9K. If you’d like him for that price, then you probably should consider playing him tonight. While the Phillies do have some interesting low priced bats against LHP, which include Altherr (103 wRC+, .210 ISO vs LHP career) for $2.8K, Rupp (161 wRC+, .288 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for the same price on FanDuel and less than $4K on DraftKings, and Joseph (143 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP) for $3.5K or less, they’ll all probably only face Urias twice and then match up with the bullpen. Our daily bullpen article shows that the Dodgers heavily used the top end of their bullpen against the Red Sox this weekend, so it’ll be interesting where they go after Urias. Hopefully, 75 pitches can get him five innings with a lead for those considering him.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Relief Brief Other tagged players: Cameron Rupp, Tommy Joseph, Aaron Altherr Michael Fulmer has struck out five or fewer in nine of last 10 starts
Michael Fulmer continues to run out an 2.42 ERA a run and a half below his estimators due to a .250 BABIP and 83.7 LOB%. He pitches in a negative run scoring environment in Seattle tonight, but the Mariners are a top three offense via wRC+ both at home (113 wRC+, 16.8 HR/FB) and vs RHP (111 wRC+, 15.4 HR/FB). Fulmer has just a 14.8 K% over the last month and no more than five Ks in nine of his last 10 starts, which hardly justifies a price tag above $8K here. LHBs do have just a .272 wOBA with two HRs against him though and with just a 3.9 run projection tonight, there’s little excitement on either side of this matchup tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Coors is the only spot mentioned with little risk in Kevin's evening weather update
Kevin grades tonight’s Rangers Rockies game as YELLOW, which is probably the least amount of risk a Coors game has carried in a few weeks. No other game is even mentioned in tonight's evening update. Read Kevin's full report on this game on our Weather Page (linked below) and follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Rangers check-in with highest implied run total on the slate (5.3), but is merely mediocre for a Coors game
Tyler Anderson has average strikeout stuff to batters from both sides of the plate (20.6% K%), but does feature an elite 56.4% ground ball rate to right-handed batters. The one leak in his pitching profile is the above-average 32.1% hard contact rate he surrenders against right-handed batters. The Rangers do feature a group of right-handed hitters that may be able to take advantage of Anderson in this matchup. Adrian Beltre (135 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .192 ISO) is still a lefty masher, even at this point in his career, as he rarely strikes out against LHP (10.1% K%) and makes hard contact around 40% of the time. Ian Desmond (164 wRC+, .424 wOBA, .218 ISO vs LHP) and Jonathan Lucroy (.227 ISO vs LHP) are the other two primary plays batting in front of Beltre in the Rangers order as they may be able to get to Anderson in this spot.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Ian Desmond, Jonathan Lucroy Rockies projected for second best 5.1 runs at home against Cole Hamels
Cole Hamels continues to run an ERA (2.89) well below his estimators (4.03 SIERA, 3.92 xFIP, 4.09 FIP) and peripherals (14.0 K-BB%) due to an 82.2 LOB%. He’s been incredibly inconsistent as players never know what they’re going to get from game to game. His price is reduced tonight not because of any of this, but due to a meeting with the Rockies at Coors. It’s an offense with just a 92 wRC and 23.2 K% vs LHP, but still an incredibly tough assignment at home (102 wRC+, 16.0 HR/FB). A 5.1 run projection is actually not very high for Coors, but is still second best on the slate. This is a difficult matchup to consider from either side as the Rockies are all reasonably priced at home too. Nolan Arenado (135 wRC+, .279 ISO vs LHP this season) and DJ LeMahieu (133 wRC+, .175 ISO vs LHP this season) still seem playable infield options at a cost around $4.5K on DK and $4K on FD, although fading this matchup otherwise is not a terrible play.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Cole Hamels Jose Altuve out of the lineup Monday night, Tony Kemp gets the nod at lead off
The Astros right-handed batters should be in one of the elite spots on this slate given the recent form of Tyler Duffey. He has exhibited some significant reverse splits and definitely struggles with right-handed batters, posting a below-average 15.3% strikeout rate, a slightly below-average ground ball rate (43.9%), and a massive 36.8% hard contact rate. With the watered-down lineup the Astros are rolling out tonight, we will want to focus our exposure on the top half of the lineup. Carlos Correa (139 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .232 ISO vs RHP) and George Springer (.177 ISO vs RHP) are the top plays here batting three-four with Altuve out of the lineup. Evan Gattis (.184 ISO vs RHP) can always provide some power upside at the barren catcher position making him a viable option in all formats. We can also consider taking a shot on Tony Kemp (127 wRC+, .361 wOBA vs RHP) and Alex Bregman as possible options to round out any Houston stacks.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Evan Gattis, Tony Kemp, Alex Bregman, Tyler Duffey Kevin Gausman has a 16.9 K-BB%, but 19 HRs in 20 starts and gets a park upgrade in Oakland
Kevin Gausman has a strong 16.9 K-BB% and just a normal hard contact rate (31.9%), but a tough home park has led to a high HR rate and 20 in 19 starts. Tonight, he transitions to a great park in terms of suppressing power against an offense with just an 83 wRC+ and 9.4 HR/FB at home. It’s a strong spot in terms of run prevention. The A’s struggle against RHP and recently traded away their most competent LH bat. It’s a less friendly spot in terms of strikeouts (18% at home, 18.4% vs RHP), but Kevin Gausman is still a very reasonable mid priced pitching option in any format for around $8.5K. Gausman is a reverse platoon pitcher. RHBs have a .369 wOBA against him since last season (LHBs 89 points lower), but batters from either side have a 29.6 Hard% against him. Khris Davis actually leads the lineup with a 113 wRC+ against RHP this season and adds the highest ISO (.258) too. For less than $4K on either site, he looks like the only most reasonable bat for a low priced lineup, but one projected for just under four runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Khris Davis Cardinals currently tied for the highest implied run total outside of Coors, but is it warranted?
There’s no doubting that the season long of metrics of Cody Reed look pretty brutal, but he has improved recently despite allowing five earned runs in each of his last two starts. He got extremely unlucky as reflected by the .400 BABIP and .368 BABIP in those starts. Reed has also managed to limit opponents to only two home runs in his last three starts, which is a vast improvement over the nine he allowed in his first five major league starts. This by no means an endorsement for Reed, but merely, a reminder to pump the brakes on the excessive love for Cardinals hitters in this matchup. With that said, Reed has surrendered a massive 40.6% hard contact rate thus far this season giving a few of the Cardinals bats some added upside. Stephen Piscotty (189 wRC+, .453 wOBA, .307 ISO) is by the best one-off option of all the Cardinals batters as he has mashed left-handed pitching this season. Matt Carpenter (133 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .204 ISO vs LHP) and Matt Holliday (.236 ISO vs LHP) would be the best secondary plays to accompany Piscotty in a little Cards mini-stack.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday, Cody Reed