DFS Alerts
Jose Bautista out the Blue Jays lineup Wednesday, Toronto still has a strong implied run total of 5.3 runs
Blake Snell is a good young pitching prospect that certainly has some strikeout upside, but a matchup with the Blue Jays offense in Toronto is a tall order for any major league pitcher. Snell has done a great job limiting hard contact to this point (27.1%), but a 25.6% line drive rate and 37.6% fly ball rate could hurt him in this spot despite a solid 23.0% strikeout rate to right-handed batters. There’s a ton of power in this Toronto lineup which makes them our preferred targets in this game. This is more of a reflection of how good the Blue Jays lineup is, opposed to the type of pitcher Snell is and will be. With Bautista out of the lineup, our primary options to consider are whittled down to Josh Donaldson (173 wRC+, .430 wOBA, 250 ISO vs LHP), Edwin Encarnacion (143 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .313 ISO vs LHP), Troy Tulowitzki (171 ISO vs LHP), and Russell Martin.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Blake Snell
Bryant (.223 ISO vs RHP career) and Rizzo (.273 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top bats tonight at Wrigley vs Nolasco
Although there are several teams projected for as many or more than the Cubs at five runs tonight, this is a lineup that’s as potent as any against Ricky Nolasco. While RHBs have hit him a bit better since last season (.368 wOBA vs .320), batters from either side have made hard contact about one-third of the time. While the top half of the lineup projects very strongly, they are quite expensive on either site with Bryant (138 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP career) and Rizzo (153 wRC+, .273 ISO since 2015) as top overall bats in the BAT projections tonight, very worthy of the pay up. Both have a wRC+ above 150 over the last week. Willson Contreras (117 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) and Addison Russell (102 wRC+, .150 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are worthy at difficult positions for a more reasonable cost (less than $4K on DK, $2.9K each on FD). There are really few spots (except for maybe Heyward) where players can go very far wrong in this lineup.
As reported by: The BAT Projections Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Ricky Nolasco, Addison Russell, Jason Heyward
Red Sox currently have the second-highest implied run total on the slate (5.5) and are priced like it
Nathan Eovaldi has shown brief flashes of the ability he possess but has yet to put everything together for an extended period of time. He struggles primarily with left-handed batters, and the success he has against right-handed batters is negated by how well the Boston righties hit right-handed pitching. Eovaldi has a 54.1% ground ball rate with limited walks to right-handed batters (5.2% BB%), but still manages to give up the long ball a little too frequently (1.41 HR/9). His numbers to left-handed batters are an entirely different story as the walk rate jumps to 10.6%, the hard contact rate climbs to 36.6%, and the ground ball rate plummets to about average (43.8%). David Ortiz (179 wRC+, .443 wOBA, .359 ISO) is always in play in any format when he matches up with basically any right-handed pitcher. The other two left-handed bats to consider in tournament stacks are Jackie Bradley Jr. (144 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .268 ISO vs RHP) and Travis Shaw (117 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .199 ISO vs RHP). The Red Sox righties at the top of the order can always be connsidered when stacking Boston, but Mookie Betts (139 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .229 ISO vs RHP) is our preferred target with his power and speed upside.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jackie Bradley, Travis Shaw, Mookie Betts, Nathan Eovaldi Robbie Ray has the second highest strikeout rate (35.9%) over the last month
Robbie Ray is seventh in the majors in strikeout rate (27.9%) and second to only Yu Darvish over the last month (35.9%). While a 35.0% hard contact rate and 16.5 HR/FB along with an 8.6 BB% are still reasons to be cautious in difficult parks this may be the spot we’ve been looking for with him. The Mets have been an average offense at home and vs LHP (102 wRC+ each), but strike out 22.2% of the time vs southpaws, play in an extremely negative run environment and are severely lacking in healthy and competent RHBs at the moment as you can see by some of the unrecognizable names in tonight’s lineup. At a significantly lower price than Verlander with a higher K% over the last month and on the season, Robbie Ray is a top play tonight. With all of the hard contact he allows players can still consider some of the lighter priced Mets bats tonight, including Neil Walker (151 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP this season), who is red hot (290 wRC+ last seven days) and costs $3.2K on FanDuel, Wilmer Flores (175 wRC+, .306 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for $3.2K or less on either site or even the lightly used rookie, Ty Kelly, without much a resume so far, but a spot in the two hole tonight for less than $2.5K on either site. RHBs do have a .337 wOBA and 37.2 Hard% vs Ray since last season.
Other tagged players: Neil Walker, Wilmer Flores, Ty Kelly Jaime Garcia may be a strong play tonight despite limited strikeout upside at home against the Reds
This is a great spot at home for Jaime Garcia, who uncharacteristically struck out 11 Braves in his last start after striking out just 12 of the previous 92 batters. His 57.3 GB% is fourth best in the majors though, while his K-BB jumps to 15.3% at home since last season. The Reds have an 80 wRC+ on the road and 82 wRC+ and 16.2 K-BB% vs LHP with names like Tyler Holt and Tony Renda floating around the lineup tonight. Though they have just one LHB int he lineup, Garcia has very little actual platoon split. LHBs do have 11 of his 12 HRs surrendered this year, he’s actually generating an even higher ground ball rate against them this year (60%) with an evenly split wOBA just above .280 against batters from either side since last year. Heavily favored (-163), Garcia can be considered a top play on a thin board of aggressively priced pitchers, especially for less than $8K on DraftKings, even if the strikeout upside is usually limited. As one of several offenses projected in the 3.5 run range tonight, there’s no interest in the Cincinnati bats here. Despite the heavily RH lineup, Eugenio Suarez (141 wRC+, .250 ISO) is the only substantially above average bat vs LHP this season. Both Cozart and Duvall have a 100 wRC+ and .235 ISO though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Zack Cozart, Adam Dunn, Eugenio Suarez, Tony Renda, Tyler Holt Scott Kazmir top SP option for early slate
While Scott Kazmir has been inconsistent, he gets to face a Phillies team that is one of the worst in the league against LHP (30th in wOBA, 29th in ISO). Vegas has given the Phillies a run total of barely over three and made the Dodgers substantial favorites (-206). All that adds up to Kazmir being the top SP option of the early slate and one of the top for the all day slate as well. Kazmir is vulnerable to the long ball, especially against RH bats (29 HR allowed to them in last two seasons) so you can use the likes of Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, and Tommy Joseph as one offs or as part of a contrarian team stack. The Dodgers face Jeremy Hellickson who has allowed a .339 wOBA and 31.5% hard hit rate to LH bats over the past two seasons. The Dodgers top six all swing from that side of the plate and are viable options today with Corey Seager, Josh Reddick, and Adrian Gonzalez the preferred options of those six.
As reported by: Eric Stephen on Twitter Other tagged players: Aaron Altherr, Josh Reddick
Gio Gonzalez loves home cooking
Gio Gonzalez of the Washington Nationals has a 3.44 xFIP, 26.2% K rate, and .299 wOBA allowed when pitching at home this season, a stark contrast to the numbers he puts up on the road. He’s at home today and behind Scott Kazmir is the top SP option of the three early games. He’ll face Josh Tomlin who has disappointed this season with a 4.17 ERA and 17.2% K rate. If you’re going to go with a contrarian Indians stack, target the RH bats of Rajai Davis (leading off), Francisco Lindor (batting 3rd), and Mike Napoli (batting cleanup). Tomlin has been extreme reverse splits with a .343 wOBA to RH bats as opposed to .258 wOBA to LH bats. Despite that, Daniel Murphy is still one of the top plays for the home team, especially with Bryce Harper sitting this one out. Trea Turner and Wilson Ramos are also worth considering.
As reported by: Cleveland Indians official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Rajai Davis, Daniel Murphy Low scoring game expected in Miami
Jeff Samardzija and the San Francisco Giants visit the Miami Marlins who will have David Phelps taking the mound for them today. Vegas has given the game a modest 7.5 run total so they expect the game to be relatively low scoring. Samardzija started off hot but has cooled down and should be avoided, even given the low run projection. He has a 5.43 SIERA and 13.5% K rate over the last month and the Marlins are fairly tough against RHP. Phelps in the meantime will be limited in terms of pitch count but did look strong in his first start of the season. At his price point he could be worth a flyer, even in a somewhat tough match up against the Giants. Eduardo Nunez leads off today and is intriguing at the top of the order. Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and Buster Posey are also secondary options. Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon are the top plays from the Marlins with Derek Dietrich also worthy of consideration.
As reported by: Clark Spencer on Twitter Other tagged players: Eduardo Nunez, Christian Yelich Tarp coming onto the field in Pittsburgh
We’re still not expecting a lengthy delay and this game should play through given that there isn’t much expected precipitation throughout the night.
As reported by: Rob Biertempfel
Kenta Maeda has an 18.4 K-BB% (14th) and the top matchup tonight at home against the Phillies
While there may be a couple of more talented pitchers on tonight’s slate, Kenta Maeda is having a fine overall rookie season with the 14th best K-BB (18.4%) in the majors and is in the top spot tonight at home against the Phillies, the second worst offense vs RHP (82 wRC+, 7.6 Hard-Soft%). They have a 16.1 K-BB% over the last week and are projected for a slate low 2.81 runs (the only lineup lower than 3.2). Batters from either side have a wOBA below .300 against him. There’s no interest in Phillies bats tonight, but it’s interesting to note that Ryan Howard has a 415 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% in limited opportunities over the last week, while he also has a .245 ISO vs RHP this season and costs $3.1K or less on either site if someone is looking for a punt at the position. Maeda is the play here though, especially as a heavy favorite for just $8.8K on FanDuel.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryan Howard Yasmany Tomas scratched, Brandon Drury to replace him in the lineup
No reason has been given for the scratch at this point, but we do know that Tomas will be replaced in the field and in the batting order by Brandon Drury, who isn’t a recommended DFS option this evening. Steven Matz should be upgraded slightly as a result.
As reported by: @DBacks Other tagged players: Brandon Drury Vincent Velasquez has a 13.3 BB% since the break, Grandal has a 345 wRC+ (72.7 Hard%) over last week
Vincent Velasquez has a 13.3 BB% in four starts since the All-Star break with a 37.5 Hard% and 21.4 K%. While batters from either side haven’t previously hit him very hard in his career (LHBs 27.9%, RHBs 29.6%) recent numbers are concerning enough that it’s difficult to recommend him against a lineup that has been hitting RHP well lately. Only Kendrick has a below avearge wRC+ vs RHP this year and players might be surprised to know that Yasmani Grandal (123 wRC+) has the top ISO vs RHP this year (.262). He’s been on fire over the last week (345 wRC+, 72.7 Hard%) and with a 153 wRC+ at home since last season, he’s likely one of tonight’s top Catchers at a reasonable cost ($4K on DK, $3K on FD). Corey Seager (158 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP career) is a top, but expensive SS choice as well. Velasquez is still a talented pitcher we don’t want to attack too much, but a Dodger stack is a reasonable choice in GPPs considering his recent performance.
Other tagged players: Vince Velasquez, Howie Kendrick, Corey Seager Tigers surprising underdogs as they take on LHP Wade LeBlanc
The Tigers have surprisingly been substantially better against right-handed pitching this season despite a lineup with nearly all right-handed batters. However, Wade LeBlanc comes into this matchup with a below-average 17.4% strikeout rate, 4.98 xFIP, and a massive 51.4% fly ball rate against right-handed hitters that could definitely play into the hands of this Detroit offense tonight. J.D. Martinez (150 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .284 ISO) and James McCann (.309 ISO) both have managed the highest hard hit rates in the Tigers lineup against left-handed pitching at 46.3% and 43.6% respectively. Ian Kinsler (145 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .225 ISO) has been the best and most consistent hitter versus LHP in this order all season long. Victor Martinez (.162 ISO) has shown some pop against lefties this season and can certainly be considered on sites where he is reasonably priced.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: James McCann, Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Wade LeBlanc Daniel Norris could struggle with Mariners power RHB
Norris (3.36 SIERA) is a young left-handed pitcher that carries some prospect pedigree as he was traded to Detroit last summer as the centerpiece of the package that shipped David Price off to the Blue Jays. Norris has flashed some upside in his limited starts this season, but the sample size is still way too small to put any serious merit into his season-long advanced stats. He has pitched 58 career innings against right-handed batters and has been less than impressive, posting a 4.64 xFIP, 18.2% strikeout rate, and 44.1% fly ball rate. Enter Nelson Cruz. Cruz has hit a home run every 11.2 at bats against left-handed pitching over the past two seasons and sports a hefty .408 wOBA and .338 ISO this season. Whenever Nelson Cruz is in consideration against a lefty, so is Franklin Gutierrez (154 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .254 ISO), whose numbers are nearly as good and is always significantly less expensive on all sites. Dae-Ho Lee (.212 ISO) hasn’t exactly smashed left-handed pitching this season but definitely has flashed some power upside, putting him in play as a viable option for Seattle stacks.
Other tagged players: Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-Ho Lee, Daniel Norris Orioles LHB draw great matchup despite massive ballpark downgrade
The Orioles are set to face relative unknown, Zach Neal, on the road at O.co Coliseum. Neal has a very minimal sample size for us base relative information of off, but he only has recorded one strikeout in 12 innings against left-handed batters, and appears to a significant ground ball lean (56.4%). With the low strikeout rate to lefties (2.0%) Neal has posted this far, we should be searching for some home run upside in the Baltimore lineup. Pedro Alvarez (133 wRC+, .373 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP) and Chris Davis (.228 ISO vs RHP) both clearly fit this bill. Neal has been much better against right-handed batters but Manny Machado (142 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .272 ISO vs RHP), Mark Trumbo (136 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .264 ISO vs RHP), and Adam Jones (121 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .209 ISO vs RHP) certainly have the talent to take advantage and are in consideration for tournament stacks.
Other tagged players: Pedro Alvarez, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Zach Neal