DFS Alerts
Giants face a mercurial Reynaldo Lopez on Saturday. Look to Hunter Pence for a low owned play at OF
Lopez is a young pitcher who epitomized what young pitchers tend to do, showing us both the good and the bad in his first start. He struck out 9 batters in less than 5 innings, but allowed 10 hits to an average Dodgers team. One thing Lopez did show in the minors is that he performs better against LHBs compared to RHBs, surrendering a less than stellar OPS of 0.748 against RHBs. Hunter Pence is back in the lineup and while he may be rusty, his 135 wRC+ against RHP should go unnoticed by most.
As reported by: Baseball Reference
David Wolter has posted his weather report, sharing good weather around the league
David Wolter’s weather report does not have a weather rating worse than YELLOW and it appears weather will not be an issue on any of today’s slates. David does write that Colorado is worth monitoring, but still only rated the NYM/COL game as YELLOW, mentioning a PPD is unlikely. Also, look to San Francisco for the usual wind, reaching 15-20 mph and blowing out to left.
As reported by: RG MLB Forum Javier Baez and his team-leading 181 wRC+ versus LHPs will bat 4th for the Cubs today
Javier Baez and his team-leading 181 wRC+ versus LHPs will bat 4th for the Cubs today and face Wade Miley. Miley is only striking out 16% of right-handed batters, which gives Baez and Baez’s 17% k rate against lefties an even further boost. There are worse pitchers than Miley, but his 33% fly ball percentage and 31% hard contact allowed against right-handed bats does make him targetable with RHBs. Baez will bring a good lineup position and power to the DFS slate today, offering a 0.221 ISO against LHPs.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Wade Miley Blue Jays bats face off against Yovani Gallardo
Yovani Gallardo has been better this year than his reputation in his 183 innings pitched. Perhaps the Blue Jays have too many big bats to avoid, but stack them knowing that Gallardo has surrendered fly ball percentages below 30% to both LHBs and RHBs. In addition to his ground ball percentage around 50% against both sides of the plate, Gallardo has a respectable hard hit percentage allowed against LHBs of 22%. The Blue Jays bats have undeniable power, so while we will not be shocked to see a home run or two, know that Yovani’s peripherals point towards mediocrity, and nothing less.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista Todd Frazier is a late scratch from White Sox lineup
Frazier has been scratched from the White Sox lineup Friday night. Carlos Sanchez will replace him and bat ninth.
As reported by: Chicago White Sox Official Twitter Feed
Solarte OUT vs Finnegan at Petco
Both LHBs and RHBs have hit Brandon Finnegan well since last season (.320+ wOBA, 32+ Hard%), but we’re really only interested in two big lefty mashers tonight. Wil Myers (158 wRC+, .204 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Matt Kemp (143 wRC+, .269 ISO vs LHP since last season) are very playable even in such a negative run environment tonight with those numbers. Kemp also has a 199 wRC+ over the last week and costs just $3.2K on FanDuel tonight. Yangervis Solarte is, unfortunately, out of the lineup tonight.
Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Brandon Finnegan
RHB are the top targets on the Red Sox as they take on Tim Lincecum and his reverse splits
We don’t have a huge sample size to go off of with Tim Lincecum, but he has been significantly worse against right-handed batters this season. Lincecum has posted a 24.1% strikeout rate and 2.5% BB% to left-handed batters but a -5.2% K-BB% to right-handed batters. His splits are so extreme to this point that we can’t completely ignore them even with the minuscule sample size. If we dig a little deeper, Lincecum still had a 11.7% walk rate with a 40.0% Hard% allowed to right-handed batters dating back to last season. Mookie Betts (136 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .232 ISO vs RHP) is the clear number one option tonight if targeting the Red Sox given his steal and home run upside. Xander Bogaerts (124 wRC+, .363 wOBA) and Dustin Pedroia (120 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .153 ISO vs RHP) would be the best secondary plays to accompany Betts in Red Sox stacks. Hanley Ramirez doesn’t have great season-long statistics but he has come to life recently and makes a great pivot from David Ortiz.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Tim Lincecum Buster Posey will sit against Scherzer in San Francisco
Max Scherzer was already tonight’s unquestioned top pitcher. He may be facing an offense with just a 16.8 K% vs RHP, but in a great pitching environment where HRs will be less of an issue, although it seems like he’s already improved upon that with just two over his last five starts. With a strikeout rate five points above anyone else on the slate tonight, a small dent in a 32.7 K% is not nearly enough to move players off of him as they should be looking for a way to fit him in lineups, especially with Buster Posey on the bench tonight. San Francisco bats are not a consideration.
Red still in great spot on the road despite ballpark downgrade
Jay Bruce (138 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .320 ISO vs RHP) has been on absolute fire lately blasting six home runs in the last five games and in five straight. The Reds travel to San Diego to take on Edwin Jackson (6.17 SIERA) and the Padres. Jackson has had a lot of good fortune through his first three starts (.243 BABIP), but his high SIERA and horrendous -2.0 K-BB% show that he is just a shell of his former self. A Reds stack is entirely in play tonight even with the massive ballpark downgrade on offense. Joey Votto (155 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .233 ISO vs RHP) and Adam Duvall (118 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .312 ISO vs RHP) are the top options in the Reds lineup outside of Bruce. Zack Cozart (.177 ISO vs RHP) sacrifices the platoon advantage but has some pop and leads off for this Cincinnati offense in a great spot making him an option at a shallow SS position.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall, Zack Cozart, Edwin Jackson Ryan Raburn scratched Friday; David Dahl is now in the lineup batting 7th
With Raburn scratched, Mark Reynolds will move up a spot and bat sixth with David Dahl filling in for Raburn batting 7th. Not much changes here as a result as the Rockies bats aren’t recommended plays against Steven Matz. Having an extra lefty in the lineup does work in Matz’s favor.
As reported by: Patrick Saunders Other tagged players: David Dahl
Very little weather risk in the late update
David is in for Kevin tonight and he gives us a late weather update with very little risk outside of the small potential for a delay in either Houston/Detroit and Oakland/Cleveland games. There appears to be no reason to fade anyone for weather considerations tonight. You can read the full report on our Weather Page, linked below.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Peralta and Lamb return to Arizona lineup against Kenta Maeda
Kenta Maeda has an 18.1 K-BB% and hard hit rate just below 30%, both very solid even if he’s alternated good and bad starts over the last month. He’s in a great spot against a below average Arizona offense vs RHP (89 wRC+, 16.8 K-BB%) and is a perfectly fine second tier arm behind Scherzer tonight and could be even stronger for $9K on FanDuel as a pitcher favored for a Win. The Diamondbacks do get David Peralta (139 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who might actually be interesting for just $2.3K on FanDuel, but they still should struggle in this spot with a slate low projection as the only team below three runs. RHBs have just a .261 wOBA and 26.1 Hard% vs RHP, while Jake Lamb has an awful -89 wRC+ and 16.7 Hard% over the last week, while dealing with a nagging injury.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: David Peralta, Jake Lamb A.J. Griffin has a 5.00 xFIP, .371 wOBA versus LHB this season
The Royals travel to Arlington to face a fly ball pitcher in A.J. Griffin. Griffin does manage a respectable strikeout rate (21.1% K%) against left-handed batters but surrenders a 49.5% fly ball rate accompanied by an obscene 43.5% hard hit percentage. This is not a combination that will not translate well in his home ballpark, evidenced by his 2.23 HR/9 allowed to left-handed batters this season. The Royals are a typically a team we like to stack if targeting, but it may be better to take a pick-and-choose approach tonight given the home run struggles Griffin has had with lefties. Eric Hosmer (118 wRC+, .349 wOBA), Kendrys Morales (167 ISO vs RHP),and Alex Gordon (.172 ISO vs RHP) are the lefties we would want here. Lorenzo Cain (77 wRC+, .289 wOBA, .096 ISO vs RHP) has not hit right-handed pitching well but could be an under the radar option to round out a stack (if going that route) as he is making his first start since returning from the disabled list.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, A.J. Griffin LHBs have just a .281 wOBA against Guerra, but a 39 Hard%
Junior Guerra has just a 12.4 K-BB% and 34.6 Hard%, but a 79% strand rate and .240 BABIP have kept his ERA below three with an ERA above four. He’s not a terrible pitcher, so we’re not looking to pick on him too much, but a few low priced Pittsburgh bats may provide some value. John Jaso (115 wRC+ vs RHP) costs just $2.8K out of the leadoff spot on DraftKings and LHBs have just a .281 wOBA against Guerra, but a 39 Hard%. Jung-Ho Kang (131 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP career) costs just $2.6K on FanDuel and Gregory Polanco (141 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 182 wRC+ over the last week for $3.7K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Junior Guerra, Jung-Ho Kang, John Jaso Braun OUT, Elmore bats second in Milwaukee against rookie Brault
Steven Brault has seen enormous jumps in his strikeout rate as he’s risen through the minors, from 16.5% in 13 high A starts last year to 22% when he moved up to AA for the last 15. This year, he has a 30.8 SwStr% in 50 AAA innings, but also his first double digit walk rate with a fastball that only hits 91 mph. He impressively debuted striking out five of 18 Cardinals before being removed after 82 pitches, which is something players may need to be aware of if considering his upside for $4K on DraftKings as a complement to Scherzer perhaps against a Braun-less Brewers offense that strikes out 24.7% of the time vs LHP. While there’s not much info on Brault in terms of splits, Jonathan Villar has hit LHP very well this seaon (144 wRC+) and Chris Carter has a .304 ISO against them this year. The cheap value play is Infielder Jake Elmore (130 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015), who bats second for just $2.1K on FanDuel and less than $3K on DraftKings as well.
Other tagged players: Jake Elmore, Chris Carter, Steven Brault